Some Mauer numbers worth remembering/considering

[DocBauer]

Aren't we all looking forward now to 2015 while enjoying Santana, Arcia, Vargas, Dozier, Escobar, Hughes and Gibson amongst others, awaiting September promotions to give us more enjoyment, daydreaming and hope?

 

But here's a funny thing; Mauer began to be Mauer before his oblique injury. And since coming back, Mauer has been performing like Mauer yet again. What does this mean? It means Mauer, extremely talented, a multiple batting champ, a multiple all-star, an experienced professional on a rebuilding team, and one of the Twins best and most important players is overcoming his concussion symptoms, and begining to look like his old self.

 

There was a lot of hope before 2014 began that Mauer's transition to 1B would allow him to stay more healthy, removed from the rigors of catching, and be in the lineup on a more consistent basis. Playing a 140-150 games, without the burden of catching, would see a rise in overall production. If for no other reason than more AB's and stronger body as the grind of the season wore on. Some even predicted, though I think wrongly so, of a huge HR surge. But regardless, just being healthy and available for more games should make a difference.

 

But a funny thing happened on the way to the coliseum, Mauer still wasn't recovered from his concussion. And typical of the rash of injuries the Twins have suffered this season at all levels, just as Mauer was getting his groove back, he got hurt.

 

Let's put all of that aside and just focus on a healthy, no concussion Mauer for 2015 and look at some viable numbers.

 

First, Mauer's career slash numbers....just in case anyone has forgotten or lost touch.

 

.320 Avg/ .401 OB/ 462 SLG/ .863 OPS

 

Do yourself and read those numbers again.

 

Now based on games played over his career, NOT INCLUDING this season, (it's not over yet and there was the concussion syndrome), but also, NOT INCLUDING his MVP season, but including all other seasons, healthy or not, for consideration:

 

Over a 150 game season, (playing 1B now with a few games at DH), he would/should maintain his career norms for Avg and OB%, etc! but he would also project to 36+ doubles and just shy of 11 HR's.

 

Now, this is based on his career numbers as a catcher, and without his MVP year as previously stated. The point being an objective observation would see him continuing as a tremendous hitter, with great OB numbers, and a lot of doubles with somewhat limited HR power, not that HR's are the be all and end all. But also consider this, remembering we have eliminated Mauer's MVP season for this discussion, he has 3 times hit 10 or more HR's in a season, and 2 of them were the past two seasons.

 

Is it reasonable to assume that a fully healthy and recovered Mauer in 2015, with 150 games played, no longer behind the plate, could/should see at least a slight rise in his per game HR ratio? Maybe up to the 15-ish area with his doubles and his normal hit/OB% area?

 

Something to chew on.

[Badsmerf]

Still making excuses for Mauer I see. Concussion symptoms shymptoms, fact of the matter is he has been a terrible 1b this season and average defensively. He is never going to justify the rest of his contract at that position. Say whatever you want about what he used to be.

[iTwins]

Great points Doc. Mauer was starting to look like the Mauer of old just before his injury and we've certainly seen the 'old' Joe since he's returned.

 

You could tell something was 'off' when the season started - but whatever was causing his issues seems to be gone (concussion, adjusting to not seeing pitches behind the plate - only Joe knows for sure). A healthy Joe Mauer anchoring a lineup of young talent like Santana, Arcia and Vargas is certainly something to look forward to.

 

2015 could be the year we were hoping 2014 would be. Another year of experience for the youngsters, Dozier continuing to be Dozier, Sano and possibly Buxton making their debuts - all around a healthy Joe Mauer? That sounds like fun. Let's do that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Still making excuses for Mauer I see. Concussion symptoms shymptoms, fact of the matter is he has been a terrible 1b this season and average defensively. He is never going to justify the rest of his contract at that position. Say whatever you want about what he used to be.

It's not excuse-making. Mauer has a 1.011 OPS since returning to the lineup. He has been a legitimately good player since the injury.

 

Will he earn his salary at first base? Probably not... but that doesn't mean he's incapable of being a good player.

[stringer bell]

It really doesn't matter if Mauer earns his salary if the Twins get productions far above salary from other players.  Hughes has to be worth more than twice his salary, for example.  With Dozier, Arcia, Vargas, earning less than they produce the Twins can afford Mauer at $23M per. 

 

The problem is that the last two trips through the rotation has shown precious few good performances, other than Hughes.  For the Twins to improve, the starting pitching has to improve dramatically.

[TheLeviathan]

We heard the same thing prior to this season and he hasn't been healthier or better as a power producer. I expect him to regress to better performance levels again next year but most of this argument is dubious.

[USAFChief]

AFAIK, There is zero evidence of "concussion syndrome" being responsible for Mauer's down year. Speculation is fine, but please dont invent "fact."

[Pius Jefferson]

Still making excuses for Mauer I see. Concussion symptoms shymptoms, fact of the matter is he has been a terrible 1b this season and average defensively. He is never going to justify the rest of his contract at that position. Say whatever you want about what he used to be.

 

 

What an ******* response. 

[DocBauer]

Mauer's contract is a moot point. Signed sealed and delivered. Move on.

 

The point is healthy, which we didn't get to see a lot of this year, Mauer has proven to be an excellent offensive player with way above average hit and on-base skill, along with gapper extra base power and limited HR power. But since when is hitting HR's the only acceptable form of quality offensive production. Further, while still behind the plate, and not playing in a full 150 games, Mauer hit double digits in HR totals in '12 & '13. Therefore, a distinct possibility that simply playing in more games could result in additional HR totals.

[DocBauer]

No, there is no concrete proof, or admission from Mauer or the Twins, that Mauer's struggles earlier this season were concussion related.

 

Except, of course, he had a severe concussion issue last season that sidelined him and brought about the switch to 1B. And there is a history with Twins players not named Mauer, and other players in baseball, suffering from post concussion difficulties for a time before returning to previous form...or not returning at all. And, of course, there is speculation from Joe's own grandfather, Joe's best friend, and a few vague and/or veiled references without admission from Gardenhire himself as to Mauer's struggles earlier this season and last season's concussion.

 

But of course, no proof of continuing post concussion symptoms that would appear to have abated themselves.

[DaveW]

I think it is pretty clear at this point regardless of what caused it Mauer went on a once in a career style prolonged slump, the good news is that it is pretty obvious that he is back to his old ways. I am looking forward to him being a catalyst in a lineup featuring Dozier, Santana, Arcia, Vargas, Sano and Buxton. Exciting times ahead! Hopefully he can stay healthy, I would gladly trade a couple healthy years when all those guys are up for these last two years of injury issues on a 90 loss team.

[DocBauer]

I think it is pretty clear at this point regardless of what caused it Mauer went on a once in a career style prolonged slump, the good news is that it is pretty obvious that he is back to his old ways. I am looking forward to him being a catalyst in a lineup featuring Dozier, Santana, Arcia, Vargas, Sano and Buxton. Exciting times ahead! Hopefully he can stay healthy, I would gladly trade a couple healthy years when all those guys are up for these last two years of injury issues on a 90 loss team.

The exact point I was trying to make. Despite the emergence of Santana, the development of Dozier and Plouffe, the exciting potential of Arcia and Vargas and the eventual arrival of Buxton and Sano, I thought it a good time to just step back and remember what kind of hitter we have in Mauer to help hold things together.

[notoriousgod71]

Why would anyone expect Mauer to be healthy next season? Even playing first base he has been hurt twice. It could obviously happen but his own history indicates that it won't.

[Paul Pleiss]

Why would anyone expect Mauer to be healthy next season? Even playing first base he has been hurt twice. It could obviously happen but his own history indicates that it won't.

 

The best indicator of future injuries is past injuries. I agree with Notorious, we may never see Mauer play 150+ games at first base, but with other DH first base guys on the roster, maybe he can get a few more days off to help stay in the lineup, while at the same time still providing nearly everyday awesome Joe Mauerish things when he plays.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

The tricky thing about the injury prone label is that it gets applied equally to players with chronic conditions (Like Joe Crede's back issues) and guys that have had seemingly different injuries each time they've been injured.

 

Maybe Mauer is snakebitten, or injury-prone. He's certainly been injured a lot - there's no denying that.

 

This year it was back spasms and his oblique - those seem related to one another.

Last year it was his head

Before that he had knee surgery...

 

You know what they say - never trust anyone over 30 (to stay healthy through a full ML season).

[beyondclarity]

The contract is a pointless conversation.  1. The Twins had no choice.  2. It's history.  3. They still have plenty of money.  Can we really just move on past Mauers contract?

 

We've had the pleasure of watching one of the best players to wear a Twins uniforms in our life times yet somehow how he's vilified.  I fully expect him to put up similar numbers to his career averages for the next couple of years.  With a supporting cast that actually looks like ball players for the first time in 3+ years, maybe there is hope.

[Steven Buhr]

The contract is a pointless conversation.  1. The Twins had no choice.  2. It's history.  3. They still have plenty of money.  Can we really just move on past Mauers contract?

 

 

 

Unfortunately, for a lot of people, the answer to that question is, "no."

 

He could have another MVP season and, if it didn't include 30 HR, people would still hate on him. It's just how it is.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

There's a little exaggeration there, but your point is taken.

 

Conversely, note to the dyed-in-the-wool Mauer defenders: when Mauer is not producing or is on the shelf, his contract will be fair game.

 

I mean, he hurt his oblique while operating a baseball bat, for Pete's sake.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Mauer defenders....  Mauer attackers.  The man has been one of the best baseball players most of us will ever see.  He's probably going to the hall, especially with 3 batting titles playing C and an MVP to go with it (along with a second season where he was being considered as well).  I get that there's legit criticism to his game, his power never really developed in particular, but he's still a great player, fun to watch, and from what I can tell a class act too.

 

If there was a case for questioning whether or not fans appreciate good baseball, I think a lot of the Mauer criticism is evidence of it.

[Mike Sixel]

It would certainly help next year if he was healthy all year. That would be nice, because he's a great hitter when healthy. Great hitter. Not a hitter that can score runs on his own, as it were, but a great hitter at not making outs, and at getting doubles. Both great skills.

 

I'm bored with the other stuff here (contract, injury prone, not worth it as a 1B, good citizen....some of which I have strong thoughts on that would mostly make some people angry).

[big dog]

It's interesting to note that national media articles about terrible contracts don't mention Mauer as a contender.  Cabrera's recent 10-year extension, Pujols' long deal, Prince Fielder all are much worse.  I'm glad we didn't sign Hamilton for what the Angels did.  Ooh, I know- Alex Rodriguez?  No thanks.  And those are just the position players- the pitchers have all sorts of bad deals, largely but not entirely because of injuries. 

 

It isn't as great a deal as we hoped back when we thought he'd be catching longer, but it's just not a horrible contract even now, compared to other long-term big money deals.  It's the price of signing a big name free agent, or keeping a big name away from free agency.  Which, by the way, is the thing we were told the Twins would do when they moved to Target Field.  They did it once, and now fans complain about it as if every other big contract worked out great.  Would people rather they had dropped $240 million on Robinson Cano for his age 32-41 years?  Seriously?

 

And let's remember, the Twins should still have money to spend.  Ask Ricky Nolasco's agent.  Maybe you don't like how they spend it (Mike Pelfrey...grrrr....), but they have it.  

[nicksaviking]

No, there is no concrete proof, or admission from Mauer or the Twins, that Mauer's struggles earlier this season were concussion related.

 

Except, of course, he had a severe concussion issue last season that sidelined him and brought about the switch to 1B. And there is a history with Twins players not named Mauer, and other players in baseball, suffering from post concussion difficulties for a time before returning to previous form...or not returning at all. And, of course, there is speculation from Joe's own grandfather, Joe's best friend, and a few vague and/or veiled references without admission from Gardenhire himself as to Mauer's struggles earlier this season and last season's concussion.

 

But of course, no proof of continuing post concussion symptoms that would appear to have abated themselves.

 

There is a decent chance that his early season struggles were concussion related, as mentioned and as you acknowledged, it's only speculation.  However, I don't know that this "season-after-concussion-hangover" is league wide.  From what I can tell, it is confinded to Mauer, Morneau, Span and Koskie.  There may be other cases, but I don't recall any.  Of course I do follow the Twins closer than other organizations.

[Bark's Lounge]

I'm gonna choose not to cut down the tree that is Joe Mauer and instead water it, nurture it, hopefully watch it grow and enjoy it's shade on a hot summer day.

 

Even though Joe had a rough few months to start the season, it was less enjoyable to watch the games when he was on the DL. Since he has come off the DL, the games have been more enjoyable to watch even though we lose a fair share of them.

 

I am a tried and true pessimist, but I still have faith in Mauer.

 

I am trading in my glass half empty for a glass half full and sending a cheers to all of you!

[Boom Boom]

All this talk about Joe finally recovering from his concussion reads like fan fiction to me.  Considering how long the effects can last, he may still not have recovered... or he may have recovered before the season started, and just had a *mediocre* (not terrible) couple of months.  That happens to good players sometimes.

 

Until Joe says for certain that was the issue, I can't take anybody's word for it here.