Article: Suddenly, Shortstops!

[Linus]

I don't get it.  We've been waiting forever to have anybody competent at the two middle infield positions and now we have a prevailing opinion that we should trade them?  Good teams have depth and multiple choices for lineups something that the Twins haven't had in years.  So, when the one guy you are counting on doesn't come through, you have another hole in your lineup.

 

Between Santana and Escobar, we are likely to find a competent SS for 2015 and beyond.  Nobody knows who it will be so we need to keep both and not return to the middle infield black hole we had for years.  If both prove worthy (not likely) then you can trade one of them without creating another hole in the lineup. 

 

I think a great scenario is for Santana to be the SS and Escobar plays just as much, but at a variety of positions and filling in for injuries.  Being a utility guy doesn't mean he won't get full playing time.  You could argue that the lineup would be better with Escobar at third instead of Plouffe (far better defense and offensive production that is more similar than most people think).

[DJL44]

I am holding onto Plouffe.  Sano is no lock at 3B and Plouffe is at least league average there. This is a difficult position to fill.   We would be kicking ourselves if Sano doesn't work out there.  At worst he is a super utility guy, 3B, 1B, LF, and RF.  He should see every rep against lefties regardless.

 

If Sano does not come through the Twins are not going to be a contender. He's also very low risk of being a failure. Are they building a contender or a .500 ballclub?

 

Plouffe may be at least league average but he's also at best league average. Better a year too early than a year too late.

[TRex]

Do the Twin's version of 'who would you trade for...'

 

Eduardo Escobar: I don't think I would even trade one of our high A outfielders (Max Keplar or ABWII) for him. I think you would definitely have to go down into the 25-35 range. Maybe a 2013 version of Levi Michael. For pitching, I don't know that I would give up a Stephen Gonsalves or a 2013 version of Jorge Felix/Randy Rosario for him. Maybe you would do a Taylor Rogers or Tyler Duffy, but how valuable is that?

[tobi0040]

If Sano does not come through the Twins are not going to be a contender. He's also very low risk of being a failure. Are they building a contender or a .500 ballclub?

 

Plouffe may be at least league average but he's also at best league average. Better a year too early than a year too late.

 

I meant not coming through as a 3B. I find it very unlikely we can't find a place for Sano's bat between 1B, DH, LF, and RF.  But it is not certain he remains at 3B, every scouting report suggests that.

 

Plouffe is a league average 3B, so I can see a contending team with Plouffe at 3B and Sano somewhere else.

[stringer bell]

I think the SS job should be Escobar's until either Santana takes it or EE gives it away.  As far as third base, in the last two games I was amazed because when a ball was hit to Plouffe, I immediately thought "that's an out" instead of "what will Plouffe do with that hand grenade".  He is really much, much better in the field.  Some of Plouffe's AB are pretty bad, but he does deliver a number of big hits. 

[iTwins]

I'd love it if Escobar was the longterm answer at short for the Twins. I'm still skeptical, however, and think he likely ends up as a utility guy for them in the coming seasons. That being said, he's a great player to fill that utility role. I'd keep him on the roster just to be a rotating infielder, if his short stop success suddenly disappears.

 

I think Santana is the future SS, but it's hard to say what we have with him defensively or if his bat will continue to be leadoff quality.

 

One thing's for sure, it's nice to have too many options, for once.

[ashbury]

I think the SS job should be Escobar's until either Santana takes it or EE gives it away.

I'm in the camp that views him as a utility player for a ceiling.  More specifically, a good utility player for a contending team, or a starter for a bad team.  Since I don't want the Twins to continue being bad, I don't focus on the latter.  But what you said (ignoring names of other candidates) fits in with this general POV.  He'll stop being a starter when the Twins reach the state where he shouldn't be their starter, IMO.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Do the Twin's version of 'who would you trade for...'

 

Eduardo Escobar: I don't think I would even trade one of our high A outfielders (Max Keplar or ABWII) for him. I think you would definitely have to go down into the 25-35 range. Maybe a 2013 version of Levi Michael. For pitching, I don't know that I would give up a Stephen Gonsalves or a 2013 version of Jorge Felix/Randy Rosario for him. Maybe you would do a Taylor Rogers or Tyler Duffy, but how valuable is that?

I guess I think Escobar is more valuable. He's an above average SS both offensively and defensively. I'd echo what others said in that presently, he's got a few question marks that would be answered by one more decent season, but I do think that that he'd net something better than Kepler or Walker. Both of them fit in the high risk/high reward mold presently.

[Oxtung]

I have nothing further to really add to this discussion but I will say that I agree with those who think that at some point next season we'll be looking at Polanco as the savior at SS.  Both Escobar and Santana are swinging above their heads, Escobar already seems to have come back to Earth since an outstanding May, and IMO it is only a matter of time before Santana does as well.  If Santana can become as good a defender as his minor league reputation suggests is possible, let's not forget he was named the minor league defensive player of the year last season at AA by the leagues managers, he might hit enough to stick but counting on his bat to be above average is a step farther than I'm willing to go.

[Steven Buhr]

Thanks for the read. Add the minor league depth that Polanco, (and yes) Michaels and Goodrum (the latter two both rule-5 eligible) and the eventuality of first rounder Nick Gordon, the Twins' have options for short in the near and far future.   Though troubling, none lead with their defense.   Each prospects' warts seems to be in a similar place: defense (even if different aspects). 

 

I agree and I think this entire discussion is about who the best option is at SS for the next 1-2 years, because I don't think many of the names here should be counted on to be a major league shortstop on a long-term basis. They just haven't shown the glove for it.

 

If you want someone who "leads with their defense," keep an eye on Engelb Vielma.

 

I know it sounds like hyperbole, but Vielma is the best shortstop I've seen on a professional infield at any level in a while. Defensively, he could play SS for a Major League team today. He's that smooth, that strong and that consistent.

 

He was only 19 when he started the season in CR (only because Ryan Walker, expected to start the year as Class A SS, got hurt in ST) and for several very cold weeks, he looked totally lost at the plate (hitting .187 in April). That is no longer the case. He's been very productive at the plate and, since he just turned 20 in June, I expect him to only get stronger.

 

Nick Gordon is coming up behind him on the organization ladder and I'm anxious to watch Gordon next summer, but I would not bet against Vielma. There's a lot of us talking about how strong the CR pitching has been, but I'd guarantee you that having Vielma at SS behind them is aiding their stats (and, not coincidentally, the team's W-L record).

Edited August 20, 2014 by Steven BUHR

[Oxtung]

I guess I think Escobar is more valuable. He's an above average SS both offensively and defensively. I'd echo what others said in that presently, he's got a few question marks that would be answered by one more decent season, but I do think that that he'd net something better than Kepler or Walker. Both of them fit in the high risk/high reward mold presently.

 

Escobar's OPS/BABIP by month:

 

Month: OPS: BABIP

April: .769, .400

May: .865, .406

June: .585, .260

July: .642, .311

Aug: .733, .389

 

I don't see an above average offensive player there.  I see a guy who has had 3 months with a lot of lucky bounces, 1 month of unlucky bounces and 1 month of "normal" bounces.  It seems to me an OPS of .650 is a very reasonable seasonal expectation going forward.  YMMV obviously.

[alskntwnsfn]

I am not a huge Floriman fan but he is hitting .260 in AAA. Any chance he could carry some of that to the bigs despite his woeful track record and should we give him the chance?

Chummin'...

 

But seriously, have you seen him pick it? Way better than that other guy. 

[USAFChief]

I don't view Escobar as "above average" defensively. In fact, I think average is a stretch.

[ericchri]

Escobar's OPS/BABIP by month:

 

Month: OPS: BABIP

April: .769, .400

May: .865, .406

June: .585, .260

July: .642, .311

Aug: .733, .389

 

I don't see an above average offensive player there.  I see a guy who has had 3 months with a lot of lucky bounces, 1 month of unlucky bounces and 1 month of "normal" bounces.  It seems to me an OPS of .650 is a very reasonable seasonal expectation going forward.  YMMV obviously.

I'm not exactly disagreeing with you, but isn't that sort of what you'd expect to see from anybody who posts a good offensive season?  Some months where they have better numbers from the bounces going right, and some where they don't?  I would find it very strange to post month after month of numbers that conform to standards.

 

Mostly I find his ability to post multiple entire months worth of good hitting (on either side of a couple poor-to-average months) somewhat encouraging.  He didn't tailspin out of the season, he came out of it and settled into decent hitting again.  I don't have high expectations for him, per se, but I don't find it too far-fetched to see him being capable of basically league average offense and defense for a SS.  If somebody can push him out, great, but the stability is nice.  I'm not troubled by seeing EE at short, and I certainly haven't been able to say that about the guy who's been manning the position at any given moment much over the last few years.

Edited August 20, 2014 by ericchri

[Oxtung]

I'm not exactly disagreeing with you, but isn't that sort of what you'd expect to see from anybody who posts a good offensive season?  Some months where they have better numbers from the bounces going right, and some where they don't?  I would find it very strange to post month after month of numbers that conform to standards.

 

Mostly I find his ability to post multiple entire months worth of good hitting (on either side of a couple poor-to-average months) somewhat encouraging.  He didn't tailspin out of the season, he came out of it and settled into decent hitting again.  I don't have high expectations for him, per se, but I don't find it too far-fetched to see him being capable of basically league average offense and defense for a SS.  If somebody can push him out, great, but the stability is nice.  I'm not troubled by seeing EE at short, and I certainly haven't been able to say that about the guy who's been manning the position at any given moment much over the last few years.

 

It's not the fluctuation in his BABIP that is a red flag, it's how dependent his "league average offense" is on an unsustainably high BABIP.  When you look at his stats without that high BABIP they aren't pretty.

[Brandon]

I think both should be kept with Escobar playing some 3rd and LF and some back up 2b while Santana should get a lot of time in CF.  both still get lots of time at SS and at other positions while we wait for the 2 super prospects to arrive. 

[stringer bell]

I think both should be kept with Escobar playing some 3rd and LF and some back up 2b while Santana should get a lot of time in CF.  both still get lots of time at SS and at other positions while we wait for the 2 super prospects to arrive.

I don't know about any more of Esco in the outfield, especially if Nunez and Santana are on the roster as infielders. Perhaps a position sharing could be worked out, but good continuity is important between the middle infielders. Changing almost daily from Santana to Escobar and back again doesn't help.

 

Who are the "2 super prospects" the Twins have to play short. I think that Gordon might be considered a great prospect, although he has only played a couple months. I'm not ready to label Polanco in such a manner. He was good, but I wouldn't say dominant at Fort Myers. He hasn't been even good at New Britain, and for the record he already has eight errors. IMHO, Polanco is on track to get back to the majors, but I wouldn't project him to be a regular player, much less a star or superstar.

Edited August 20, 2014 by stringer bell

[naobermiller]

One thing to note about Santana, is after languishing in the minors for a a few years, he seemed to find his stride a couple years ago.  There are several reports of a maturation that occured, both in the field and at the plate.  While I don't expect him to be a .330 hitter year in year out, I don't think a .280-.300 is out of the question

[Monkeypaws]

A competent 25 year old SS is nothing to sneeze at. Escobar has been my #1 surprise this season. Santana has been pleasant surprise #1. He seems pretty mature for his age. His athleticism is a nice match for short.

 

Given that we have a top SS prospect in Gordon, and all the rest (Polanco, Michael), I agree with Nick, suddenly shortstops indeed.

 

So so glad we got Burdi instead of Stephen Drew and his .170 BA.

 

BTW, just checked, Burdi's numbers so far: 16 IP 11H 31K. 

[Thrylos]

I like what Escobar's doing but let's cool the "sell high" chatter. He had a .587 OPS in the majors prior to this season, and a career .675 OPS in the minors

 

I think that his majors' OPS in sporadic duty before this season does not really matter.   Same with his OPS in the VSL 6 seasons ago.   I think that, like Dozier, turned the corner when he got some consistent playing time.  D. Santana's minors OPS (.708) is in the same ballpark.  And I have seen enough of Santana play shortstop the past 4-5 seasons in the minors to think that he is the one better suited as a bench player.

 

Would Escobar be the SS of the future?   Not sure, but If I were to bet, I would bet on Polanco, Vielma and Gordon, in that order...   I think that Polanco (who has probably the best contact tool of any prospect in the organization) should be ready to start for the Twins around 2016, which makes this a 2015 conversation.  

 

But, indeed, a good problem to have for the Twins.

[Mr. Brooks]

If Sano does not come through the Twins are not going to be a contender. He's also very low risk of being a failure. Are they building a contender or a .500 ballclub?

 

Plouffe may be at least league average but he's also at best league average. Better a year too early than a year too late.

 

I couldn't disagree more.

Prospects with Sano's skillset (80 power, but a lot of K's, and no other tools), are about the riskiest prospects their are. 

Sano is the definition of high risk/high reward.

[Linus]

I think that his majors' OPS in sporadic duty before this season does not really matter.   Same with his OPS in the VSL 6 seasons ago.   I think that, like Dozier, turned the corner when he got some consistent playing time.  D. Santana's minors OPS (.708) is in the same ballpark.  And I have seen enough of Santana play shortstop the past 4-5 seasons in the minors to think that he is the one better suited as a bench player.

 

Would Escobar be the SS of the future?   Not sure, but If I were to bet, I would bet on Polanco, Vielma and Gordon, in that order...   I think that Polanco (who has probably the best contact tool of any prospect in the organization) should be ready to start for the Twins around 2016, which makes this a 2015 conversation.  

 

But, indeed, a good problem to have for the Twins.

This is how teams get in trouble.  Prospects are suspects until they actually do it.  All the other SS prospects are so far away from the big leagues that to predict how they fit into the future in the big leagues is pure guessing (most will never even make it).  Polanco is a second baseman, Michael has about two good months in the minors and is closer to Santana in age than people realize and the rest are years away from the majors.  Other than Gordon, my prediction is that none of the others achieve in the majors what Escobar or Santana has done this year.  That's why you keep them both - to make sure you have something decent to run out there for the foreseeable future.

[drjim]

I couldn't disagree more.

Prospects with Sano's skillset (80 power, but a lot of K's, and no other tools), are about the riskiest prospects their are. 

Sano is the definition of high risk/high reward.

 

I think he has more hit tool than you are giving him credit for, and he did have a 70 arm...

[Thrylos]

This is how teams get in trouble.  Prospects are suspects until they actually do it.  All the other SS prospects are so far away from the big leagues that to predict how they fit into the future in the big leagues is pure guessing (most will never even make it).  Polanco is a second baseman, Michael has about two good months in the minors and is closer to Santana in age than people realize and the rest are years away from the majors.  Other than Gordon, my prediction is that none of the others achieve in the majors what Escobar or Santana has done this year.  That's why you keep them both - to make sure you have something decent to run out there for the foreseeable future.

 

The question one needs to ask is whether they are starting shortstops in a championship team.  The Twins have not had a decent team in 4 seasons, including in 2014.  Are they part of the solution?  Who knows?   I agree, you keep them until better prospects come up. 

 

However, if every single current player is not part of the problem, how come the Twins are having a problem?  

[tobi0040]

I think he has more hit tool than you are giving him credit for, and he did have a 70 arm...

 

And also 65 and 80 BB's in 120 games his last two years. Which led to a .373 and .382 OBP to go along with a ridiculous slugging and ISO.  I see a floor resembling Adam Dunn (assuming he is a DH or terrible OF like Dunn was).  Dunn will receive HOF votes.  He won't get in, but 28th all time in doubles, 36th in HR's (will likely get over 500), and 42nd in BB's.

 

My guess would be Sano's offensive game resembles Dunn, although Sano will likely have a better career average and have fewer walks

Edited August 21, 2014 by tobi0040

[tobi0040]

The question one needs to ask is whether they are starting shortstops in a championship team.  The Twins have not had a decent team in 4 seasons, including in 2014.  Are they part of the solution?  Who knows?   I agree, you keep them until better prospects come up. 

 

However, if every single current player is not part of the problem, how come the Twins are having a problem?  

 

I agree. I think the Twins have some good pieces right now (or appear to).  Guys like Gibson, Hughes, Dozier, a healthy and typical Mauer, etc.  But we really lack elite players that drive championships.  The hope is Buxton, Sano, and Meyer come up and reach their potential and can be those guys.

 

For the sake of argument, Mauer has been elite in the past.  But the question remains if 31-36 year old Mauer will prove to be an elite 1B.  The jury is out on that one.

[DocBauer]

I'm also firmly on board with keeping both. And not simply because one good season from Escobar isn't enough to gain a quality return in trade.

 

Let's all be honest and admit that what Escobar has done this year, offensively and defensively, is far above anything we've had for years now. If we could have been assured before the season began that he would do exactly what he's done, we'd of been ecstatic! And not just this year, but every year going back to what, Guzman leaving?

 

Further, there is no guarantee he will regress, or how far. He may even improve. This is his first real shot at playing every day, and he's only 25. His "utility" label thus far is mostly earned by being promoted early, too early, at only 21, and used as a utility player by the Sox before coming to the Twins. Pure talent and explosiveness, Santana is the better potential player. And I have no problem with his continuing to play some SS and "auditioning" to a degree for 2015 and beyond. May the best man win. And may the other provide great utility play, or in Santana's case, possibly a role in the OF.

 

Depth, options and roster potential is a very good thing to have, and something the Twins need more of, not less.

 

Great point on Vielma from SD, though he's a ways away, just as Gordon is. I think it's WAY to early to corner Polanco as a 2B only. The overall talent and athleticism is there. Errors come with young players, especially infielders, being groomed and developed. Michael I'm not so sure yet. He seems to have finally begun to find himself offensively. Better late than never. He's going to have continue the development he's shown this season in 2015. If he does, he might be a solid option somewhere, but I think we're a season away from knowing for sure. Again, there is talent, and there are skills there, that made him worthy of a 1st round pick initially.

[Thegrin]

Escobar is hitting doubles. 32 doubles at last count and tied with Plouffe. This means his BABIP is going to be higher than the average slap hitter.  This also indicates that Escobar's hitting improvement is likely to be permanent.  He is unlikely to face a "Sophomore Jinx" like Santana may next season.  Escobar has earned the starting SS job until he proves his 2014 play is a fluke.

[Paul Pleiss]

Santana's bat had fewer questions than his defense as he came up through the system. His bat has shown up, but those questions about his defense remain, at least at SS. He could very well be the stop-gap to Byron Buxton in CF (Hopefully Bux can put this season behind him, get healthy and get back to tearing up MiLB levels in 2015).

 

I hope Aaron Hicks can be that stop gap. Which brings us back to Santana at SS. Can he be an everyday SS? If he bat stays hot and he stays healthy then he can and should play at SS, but he's a candidate for some SERIOUS regression in 2015. I'm done waiting for him to fall back to earth, but it's got to happen, right? I'm not sold on Santana as a long-term SS, but if he can provide a level of offense defense similiar to what Eduardo Escobar is doing this season, there's no reason to not play Santana everyday.

 

And that brings us to Escobar. I love what he's done this season, doubles machine, solid (not great) defense at SS. He makes the plays he should but doesn't get to much else, and although he passes the eye test, I'm not sure he's an elite level defender. But he's 25 and seems to have figured some things out offensively. The twins should definitely not give up on this guy, and his versatility makes him even more valuable. I think he profiles best as a utilitiy guy on a contending team, but the Twins don't have a contending team, so if someone can play a passable CF and Santana plays good D, Escobar could be a great third-baseman. And if Aaron Hicks stinks it up again, or moves to a corner, leave Danny out in CF and let Escboar play SS.

 

It's a great problem to have.

 

But I still don't think it would be out of the question for the Twins to look at bringing in a veteran SS on a short contract (3 years or less).  Why not?

 

Eduardo Escobar

[Oxtung]

Escobar is hitting doubles. 32 doubles at last count and tied with Plouffe. This means his BABIP is going to be higher than the average slap hitter.  This also indicates that Escobar's hitting improvement is likely to be permanent.  He is unlikely to face a "Sophomore Jinx" like Santana may next season.  Escobar has earned the starting SS job until he proves his 2014 play is a fluke.

 

Do you have any statistics to back up your BABIP assertion?  I look at the BABIP leaderboard and can't discern any obvious patterns regarding power and BABIP.  Here's an anecdote; Miguel Cabrera (no speed but lots of power), Dee Gordon (no power but lots of speed) and JJ Hardy (not much power not much speed) all have the same BABIP this season.

 

Why exactly would Santana face regression and not Escobar? Santana has hit for more power and is faster than Escobar.....

Edited August 21, 2014 by Oxtung