Article: Twins Are Making The Right Moves

[kab21]

Because the players who will fill many of those holes haven't arrived yet. What I meant is that they have few holes to fill externally via FA or trade. For instance, why would they acquire a third baseman when Sano is on the way? Why would they sign a starter when they've already got Meyer/May/Milone/Gibson/Nolsaco lined up?

 

I would be very interested in acquiring a good starter this offseason.  You are right that there are very few holes to fill.  C/1B/2B/3B/DH are locked up.  No team should pay for RP'ers.  Good SS's are almost never available.  That leaves picking up an OF bat and SP'ing. 

 

Despite having options the starting pitching is full of question marks.

Hughes - good

gibson - not great but solid

Nolasco - red flags on this guy until he is healthy and effective for the next 12 months.  I have my doubts.

Milone - is next year's version of Worley/Diamond/Blackburn/Silva/KC/Pavano.  If things are good then he's alright and if he's just a little off then it's a disaster.

May - a good prospect but not a great one

Meyer - a great prospect with injury/durability red flags

 

I almost certainly know that the Twins won't be shopping in the Lester/Scherzer market but Iwakuma (?), Shields and ESantana are out there.  The Twins have 60M committed (plus Plouffe in arb) and almost no holes to fill.  I would go after a potential #1/2 because they have options for #3/4/5 starters and they don't have anywhere else to spend the money.

[Shane Wahl]

Shields or Santana. Making that happen would be stellar.

[jokin]

Because the Twins have such a balanced minor league system, it hard to sign a veteran without someone saying "but now ... is blocked". With the exception of signing a superstar at top dollar, the Twins are looking at a catcher, an outfielder, and maybe a starting pitcher. With the Suzuki extension they've addressed Catching (Pinto is a good fall back option). A Michael Cuddyer type on no more than a two year deal, and a pitcher who is better than anyone you have in AAA (which might be hard to justify given Meyer there). After that, its all about giving young players time to  play. If Vargas is hitting 280-300 with 7-10 homeruns by the end of the year, Is it worth holding him back for guy on a one year deal? 

 

James Shields should be seriously pursued in the offseason if they can get a 4-5 year deal.  Jon Niese is still only 27 and is available right now, is theoretically cheaply under control through as late as 2018, and he has cleared waivers with the Mets, projects as a decent #3-type starter.  The Mets have a passel of young, high-upside arms ready to possibly supplant him next year anyway, he might be available for a reasonable price in trade.

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[jokin]

I would be very interested in acquiring a good starter this offseason.  You are right that there are very few holes to fill.  C/1B/2B/3B/DH are locked up.  No team should pay for RP'ers.  Good SS's are almost never available.  That leaves picking up an OF bat and SP'ing. 

 

Despite having options the starting pitching is full of question marks.

Hughes - good

gibson - not great but solid

Nolasco - red flags on this guy until he is healthy and effective for the next 12 months.  I have my doubts.

Milone - is next year's version of Worley/Diamond/Blackburn/Silva/KC/Pavano.  If things are good then he's alright and if he's just a little off then it's a disaster.

May - a good prospect but not a great one

Meyer - a great prospect with injury/durability red flags

 

I almost certainly know that the Twins won't be shopping in the Lester/Scherzer market but Iwakuma (?), Shields and ESantana are out there.  The Twins have 60M committed (plus Plouffe in arb) and almost no holes to fill.  I would go after a potential #1/2 because they have options for #3/4/5 starters and they don't have anywhere else to spend the money.

 

I think the Twins should go all out on convincing Shields to sign.  I also have proposed that they go after Tomas or Sandoval.  If they could convince Sandoval to join the budding Latin Connection in Minnesota, he can start out at 3rd and move to 1st when Sano arrives.  Mauer can then play a corner OF spot.  As you correctly pointed out, after trading more of the chaff, the Twins will have plenty of money for both of these acquisitons.

[VanceC]

What I'd like in 2015 Starting Lineup:

1. Santana - SS

2. Mauer - 1st

3. Dozier - 2nd

4. Vargas - DH

5. Arcia - RF

6. Plouffe - 3rd    Till Sano is ready

7. Suzuki - C

8. Hicks - CF  Hopefully 3rd time is a charm

9. Rosario/Ortiz - LF

Bench: Parmalee, Escobar, Pinto, Ortiz/Rosario, Beresford

 

I think it's obvious where our holes are by looking at this projection. THE OUTFIELD!!!!!!!  

[jay]

The rebuild does seem to finally be taking shape. Don't think they've taken the quickest path or they'll be competitive for at least a couple more years barring any big off season moves, but I do think the worst is over.

 

Rebuilding the minors usually takes 3-4 years before that talent is ready to move to the majors, so this feels like it is on schedule even though it as been agonizing to watch.

 

On a related noted, I gathered some data to see how long the average rebuild takes.  For teams that don't bounce right back to the playoffs after losing 90 games, it's an average of 7 years to get back to the playoffs.  I'm hoping we end up closer to 5 (2016) than 7.

 

The full blog post is here if you're interested:

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/463/entry-5330-rebuilding-from-90-losses-to-playoff-team/

[jorgenswest]

I am still not convinced this is a rebuild. It has been a patch with older filler for three years in hopes of giving the impression of being competitive.

 

While they are selling pieces they don't have under control next year (Fuld excluded), any team with a bad record would do the same.

 

The direction will be telling this winter. Do they seek decline phase players and try to squeeze out one more year? Do they instead try to find talent from younger players that have been cast off after a small sample stay in the majors? Are they willing to turn loose Pelfrey in spite of the commitment to create time for younger players?

[twinsnorth49]

Because the players who will fill many of those holes haven't arrived yet. What I meant is that they have few holes to fill externally via FA or trade. For instance, why would they acquire a third baseman when Sano is on the way? Why would they sign a starter when they've already got Meyer/May/Milone/Gibson/Nolsaco lined up?

Phil Hughes says hello

[kab21]

I am still not convinced this is a rebuild. It has been a patch with older filler for three years in hopes of giving the impression of being competitive.

 

While they are selling pieces they don't have under control next year (Fuld excluded), any team with a bad record would do the same.

 

The direction will be telling this winter. Do they seek decline phase players and try to squeeze out one more year? Do they instead try to find talent from younger players that have been cast off after a small sample stay in the majors? Are they willing to turn loose Pelfrey in spite of the commitment to create time for younger players?

 

They have patched the team together with mediocre vets while waiting for the farm system to produce.  You can't just press a magic button and have AA/AAA loaded with ready to be called up prospects.  That is how most teams rebuild. 

 

it will be interesting to see how many mediocre vets are brought in this year.  There really isn't a lot of room for them since quite a few prospects are in the majors or are on the verge.  I'm hoping for 2 quality FA signings (OF and SP) and not much else.

 

Pablo is an unrealistic target imo.  He's going to get paid pretty well on name value alone.  Plouffe is the stop gap 3Bman and really not that bad.  No reason to pay big bucks on another stop gap and then force Mauer to the OF.

[TKGuy]

In that scenario, I wonder how Steinbach would fare as a pitching coach? I probably keep Bobby Cuellar in any event.

Well I believe Steinbach is the bench coach, so yes we would need another pitching coach and Cuellar would be fine by me.

[drjim]

They have patched the team together with mediocre vets while waiting for the farm system to produce.  You can't just press a magic button and have AA/AAA loaded with ready to be called up prospects.  That is how most teams rebuild. 

 

it will be interesting to see how many mediocre vets are brought in this year.  There really isn't a lot of room for them since quite a few prospects are in the majors or are on the verge.  I'm hoping for 2 quality FA signings (OF and SP) and not much else.

 

Pablo is an unrealistic target imo.  He's going to get paid pretty well on name value alone.  Plouffe is the stop gap 3Bman and really not that bad.  No reason to pay big bucks on another stop gap and then force Mauer to the OF.

 

I would target OF and SP as well.

 

I would probably go somewhat light on OF, only looking for a 1 or perhaps 2 year deal. Can get a decent bat, but probably nothing super inspiring.

 

SP is different. I think they have to go big or don't bother. No need to sign another #4 type, plenty of those in the organization already.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't know......if you could sign a legit MLB LFer, why not? Heck, if they could get a real LF and RF, why not? If they are real players, not old and declining, I don't see the harm in signing them. Having too many players is better than having no players and some prospects that might work out, imo.

[drjim]

I don't know......if you could sign a legit MLB LFer, why not? Heck, if they could get a real LF and RF, why not? If they are real players, not old and declining, I don't see the harm in signing them. Having too many players is better than having no players and some prospects that might work out, imo.

 

Because these are the options:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/potential-free-agents-for-2015/

[Mike Sixel]

I did say "legit MLB LFer", right? I did put that part in there, right? There always seems to be a reason for this team NOT to try to get better, according to some posters. I'd prefer they try to get better. YMMV, you may want to wait 3 more years. Some fans don't.

[jokin]

Because these are the options:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/potential-free-agents-for-2015/

 

 

I did say "legit MLB LFer", right? I did put that part in there, right? There always seems to be a reason for this team NOT to try to get better, according to some posters. I'd prefer they try to get better. YMMV, you may want to wait 3 more years. Some fans don't.

 

The list omits Tomas.   Yeah, I know, not a "major league" option, but based on that OF list, he looks to be a better option than any of them.  Good chance that getting him, plus a top-end SP would make next year's season relevant.

[drjim]

The list omits Tomas.   Yeah, I know, not a "major league" option, but based on that OF list, he looks to be a better option than any of them.  Good chance that getting him, plus a top-end SP would make next year's season relevant.

 

I'm on board with Tomas.

[Mike Sixel]

Tomas.....not as good a prospect as the guys last year (and the year before, and the year before), that they passed on, because, well, there was no good reason to pass on them. I can't see how anyone thinks they would sign a Cuban. Those guys have been sitting there for a few years now, and they have passed on them over and over, even though they are younger, by far, than MLB free agents.

[Gernzy]

Besides signing another outfielder I think we're set for next year. We already have 6 starting pitchers for 5 spots. I don't see us spending money on any big name pitchers. We need to give some of the young guys a chance.

[jokin]

Besides signing another outfielder I think we're set for next year. We already have 6 starting pitchers for 5 spots. I don't see us spending money on any big name pitchers. We need to give some of the young guys a chance.

 

 

Yeah, but the "Ace" spot has been kept open for quite a few years now since Santana left,.. and you may be right that the GM might not see his way to spending, but there's plenty of money now to finally fill that spot, plus an OF or corner Inf.

[SwainZag]

Yeah, but the "Ace" spot has been kept open for quite a few years now since Santana left,.. and you may be right that the GM might not see his way to spending, but there's plenty of money now to finally fill that spot, plus an OF or corner Inf.

Besides Scherzer and Lester who are your ace options? Shields is there and will be 33 next season, you really want to give him a 5 year contract?

 

What's the realistic chances they give out over 100M contract to bring in Lester of Scherzer? I would say the chances are slim to none.

[jokin]

Besides Scherzer and Lester who are your ace options?

 

Shields is there and will be 33 next season, you really want to give him a 5 year contract?

 

What's the realistic chances they give out over 100M contract to bring in Lester of Scherzer? I would say the chances are slim to none.

 

Shields for 4-5 years, yes.  Extending him out to 36 or 37 is certainly a risk, but the guy will have a track record of 8 straight years of 200+ innings, averaging 223 innings per year.  His ERA+ over the last 4 years is 125.  There are ways to tweak the contract, such as incentives or front-end loading it, to make it more amenable and less risky to both side's satisfaction.

[teekz]

Shields for 4-5 years, yes.  Extending him out to 36 or 37 is certainly a risk, but the guy will have a track record of 8 straight years of 200+ innings, averaging 223 innings per year.  His ERA+ over the last 4 years is 125.  There are ways to tweak the contract, such as incentives or front-end loading it, to make it more amenable and less risky to both side's satisfaction.

 

The amount of years and innings per year is troublesome. Bodies do break down eventually. Verlander had a similar workload and he is starting to break down. Arroyo made it 10 years then broke down. I'm not sure I trust his age and workload. I would rather see some of our prospect get the starts. Especially since so many are so close.

[SwainZag]

Shields for 4-5 years, yes.  Extending him out to 36 or 37 is certainly a risk, but the guy will have a track record of 8 straight years of 200+ innings, averaging 223 innings per year.  His ERA+ over the last 4 years is 125.  There are ways to tweak the contract, such as incentives or front-end loading it, to make it more amenable and less risky to both side's satisfaction.

To me it's a risk not worth taking.  I don't see any way the Twins are truly competitive next year.  Better than this year? Yes, but not a contender quite yet.  To sign Shields I would guess it would take 12-15M per or so.  Like you said he has been a workhorse over his career.  Career ERA of 3.74, career FIP of 3.78 and to me anyways he is in no way an "ace."  Why pay him ace money?  His K/9 is the lowest it's been in 5 years, which for a pitcher soon to be in his mid-30's with a lot of miles on his arm.....I would think hard about offering that kind of coin.

[Mike Sixel]

Cuddeyer? Mr can't stay healthy? Please, no, just no.

[SwainZag]

Why are there so many options that include Mauer just casually moving to the OF?  This seems as realistic to me as the Twins signing Lester and Cruz in the off season.

[SwainZag]

I agree that you don't want Mauer to move to the OF if for no other reason that he can't even stay healthy at 1B. The point I was trying to make is that the rebuild has actually gone pretty well in the sense that the Twins have filled a lot of holes - starters 2/3-5, bullpen, front and back end of the batting order,  and middle infield (I think you ride with Escobar as long as he plays like this). The two big holes are a #4 or 5 hitter that consistently drives in runs and a #1 starter.  These are the two biggest holes any team can have if it really wants to contend and they are the hardest to fill.  You either have to get a FA or wit while someone develops internally.  The open spots are LF or RF (very few of those guys play CF and those that do don't become FAs)  or maybe 3d base with Plouffe moving to the OF, but there are even fewer options at 3B/  Sandoval is not going to leave SF and come to Minnesota no matter how much you pay him and there isn't anyone else. The short term fix of a CF like Span or Rasmus with Santana moving to short is a fine Plan B, but leaves with a light hitting lineup that won't score many runs. Same thing with Hicks playing center, and then you run the risk of Hicks not even being Span or Rasmus.  That guy is not available internally for next year. Buxton and Sano are each at least another year away and will struggle when they first come up.  Even Trout struggled when he first came up. I live in LA and there was a real question whether he would make it after his first call up.  I think the bottom line is that the Twins have to import either a #1 starter or #4/5 veteran hitter to contend next year (ideally both) or be prepared to wait another 2-3 years, at best, to contend. I would advocate trying to accelerate the time table a bit by getting a veteran on a 2-3 year contract to fill one of the holes.  You probably can't get a #1 or 2 pitcher that way (they will get big money and a lot of years), so concentrating on a veteran outfielder or 3B that can hit in the middle of the order is the way to go.  Looking at the FA options leaves you with Cuddyer or Morneau for the reasons I mentioned above. Is there a trade option? Am I missing a FA option?      

 

You need to learn about paragraphs my friend

 

As much as a middle of the order hitter would be great to have, if the team isn't contending next year I don't think signing a veteran just to have someone hit there is needed.  Both Arcia and Vargas both seem to have budding power, and Arcia can play the OF.  

 

As much as I'd like to see Morneau back in a Twins uniform, with Mauer manning 1B and Vargas DH'ing...we really don't have a slot for him.  

[teekz]

You need to learn about paragraphs my friend

 

As much as a middle of the order hitter would be great to have, if the team isn't contending next year I don't think signing a veteran just to have someone hit there is needed.  Both Arcia and Vargas both seem to have budding power, and Arcia can play the OF.  

 

As much as I'd like to see Morneau back in a Twins uniform, with Mauer manning 1B and Vargas DH'ing...we really don't have a slot for him.  

 

Morneau is also under contract for next year. His deal was two years.

 

HIcks, Parm, Arcia and Santana will be able to handle the OF next year. Maybe some Schafer sprinkled in. Especially if they can get Bux up mid to late next year.

[teekz]

Markakis has an option for next year. With how he is performing, you have to image that will be picked up. Even if he voids it, he will get a QO.   Cruz will get a QO so he will cost a drafy pick and has not been good in the OF for years. See the 2011 World Series. I agree with mike wants wins on Cuddy. Too many injuries. I just think the free agents out there are on par with what we have and not worth the money they will demand. That's starting to be the problem with free agency. The good players get locked up or have a qualifing offer tied to them.

 

Here is a link to 2015 FA:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/02/2015-mlb-free-agents.html

Just not sure anyone is a "must have" free agent.

Edited August 14, 2014 by teekz

[Mike Sixel]

Melky, Melky, Melky (assuming Buxton is not up next year and Santana is not in LF).

[maxisagod]

Markakis has an option for next year. With how he is performing, you have to image that will be picked up. Even if he voids it, he will get a QO.   Cruz will get a QO so he will cost a drafy pick and has not been good in the OF for years. See the 2011 World Series. I agree with mike wants wins on Cuddy. Too many injuries. I just think the free agents out there are on par with what we have and not worth the money they will demand. That's starting to be the problem with free agency. The good players get locked up or have a qualifing offer tied to them.

 

Here is a link to 2015 FA:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/02/2015-mlb-free-agents.html

Just not sure anyone is a "must have" free agent.

 

Anyone who follows my posts might think this is odd coming from me, but this might be the off season to say "Screw the draft picks, let get an elite player". Because...

1) Twins will have a better idea of what their long term needs will be, looking at the players they have this year and in AA/AAA. The 2015-16 off season is more ideal, but this one will still be in the 'zone'. 

2) This might be the last year we have a protected 1st round pick. If the Twins do take a step forward next year, they will be out of the "protect 10 picks".

3, We have a comp pick this year! We sign a guy like Scherzer or Shields, we give up the 2nd round pick, and still have a 1st and 2nd round comp. 

 

Again, 2015-16 offseason is a better gage of what The Twins need, but if this FA class looks better then the next. Go for it. 

 

Edit: they'd give up 2nd round pick, keep comp after the 2nd round. 

Edited August 14, 2014 by maxisagod