Article: Will Alex Meyer Pitch in the Majors This Year?

[TheLeviathan]

The pressures of MLB hasn't stopped the Twins from keeping Arcia up as he's flailing.  My biggest issue last year with Gibson and now again here is the rationales offered by the Twins.  Mostly because there is nothing rational about their rationales.

 

I hope they are making some kind of sense to Meyer behind the scenes (how I have no clue) ....because all the messages being sent by the team's words and actions would seriously irritate me if I were him.

Edited August 6, 2014 by TheLeviathan

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think the problem with the walks is that it isn't going to show up as an extra walk every other game.  At 4.4 BB/9, he's walking a guy every other inning on average, for one... But more importantly, it will show up when his control isn't as sharp, at which point he doesn't make it out of the 3rd inning.  As it is, major league hitters are going to lay off those pitches more, which is going to tax the pen and shorten his starts.  This is why I think it would be great for him to pitch out of the pen in September. 

Why couldn't he pitch out of the pen now, when he isn't up against any innings limit and his arm is presumably fresher?

 

I just don't get why he needs another 30 IP in AAA right now, on top of the 112 IP he's already logged at that level this year, as opposed to some similar number in MLB, in advance of the 2015 season where he can hopefully contribute from day 1.

 

Somehow, the reasoning always comes back to:

- he's not a fully finished product (rookies never are)

- he might struggle in his first taste of MLB (duh)

- we should wait until September (why?)

- it might tax the bullpen (we have tons of bullpen options)

- Correia's still on the roster (who cares?)

- it would use an option year (factually incorrect)

- we can control him until age 32 if we keep him down until May 2015 (depressing)

 

None of which is particularly compelling to me.

[Willihammer]

 

Also, when was the last time the Twins DFA'd a player like Correia?  Juan Rincon?  Kubel's recent tenure here wasn't very long and his performance was worse (and he was arguably still limited by injuries).  Marquis' Twins tenure was short and his performance disastrous, same for Bret Boone back in the day.  Nick Blackburn was sent to the minors and hurt, but even he finished out his contract.

 

I guess part of this is that the Twins had good teams recently and didn't have too many of these guys, but Lew Ford, Rondell White, Joe Mays, Rick Reed, etc. were generally allowed to play out the string as health allowed.

 

A healthy veteran who has been with the team almost two seasons and simply has a below-average but not disastrous recent performance record?  If no one else wants him, I think he plays out the string here.

I think so too. That would seem to be consistent with Ryan's MO and the reputation he seems to cultivate.

 

If you look at the top candidates for release to make room for Meyer, you can find similar reasons Ryan wouldn't DFA or relase - eg. Colabello: turned down $1m Korean offer to stay with Twins. Deduno: pitched well since moving to zero leverage mop up duty. Burton: no quite disasterous enough to justify cutting bait in a contract year (same as Correia)

 

The Twins might very well believe Meyer has earned a promotion but are running into a conflict with the way they prefer to deal with releasing or optioning players, and the FA reputation they want to uphold. Its kinda sad that Pino seems likeliest to get optioned again despite flashing better peripherals than Correia and more long term promise.

Edited August 6, 2014 by Willihammer

[tobi0040]

I think the problem with the walks is that it isn't going to show up as an extra walk every other game.  At 4.4 BB/9, he's walking a guy every other inning on average, for one... But more importantly, it will show up when his control isn't as sharp, at which point he doesn't make it out of the 3rd inning.  As it is, major league hitters are going to lay off those pitches more, which is going to tax the pen and shorten his starts.  This is why I think it would be great for him to pitch out of the pen in September. 

 

The point was the difference between 4.4 BB per 9 and 3.5 BB per 9 (where we would not be having this conversation), is about 1-1.2 walks every other start.

 

As has been outlined before, Meyer's pitches per inning are about on par with Pino, Darnell, and May. Should we really be worried about taxing the bullpen with our record?  Should that be altering any decisions?

[Twins7]

I think that Ryan and the twins are being so conservative with Meyer because of injury concerns. Yes, he could get hurt in AAA, but my interpretation of their handling of him this year is that they want him to be 100% confident with his stuff when he gets to the big leagues. If he's up, and he's looking for that extra juice to get guys out - that's the sort of thing that can get him hurt. Throwing a little bit harder, tweaking his delivery just to get a little bit extra on pitches, that possibility has to scare the front office.

 

Do people really believe this is about anything other than protecting Meyer? He's been on a pitch count all year. Everyone knows he's the best pitcher in the organization, or at least the higher levels. Meyer can't develop his stuff and durability if he's hurt. If he doesn't have the strength to pitch 150+ innings in the big leagues under extra pressure to be the savior of the rotation, he might press when he gets tired, putting undue stress on his arm in a season that already appears lost.

[Oxtung]

Why couldn't he pitch out of the pen now, when he isn't up against any innings limit and his arm is presumably fresher?

 

I just don't get why he needs another 30 IP in AAA right now, on top of the 112 IP he's already logged at that level this year, as opposed to some similar number in MLB, in advance of the 2015 season where he can hopefully contribute from day 1.

 

Somehow, the reasoning always comes back to:

- he's not a fully finished product (rookies never are)

- he might struggle in his first taste of MLB (duh)

- we should wait until September (why?)

- it might tax the bullpen (we have tons of bullpen options)

- Correia's still on the roster (who cares?)

- it would use an option year (factually incorrect)

- we can control him until age 32 if we keep him down until May 2015 (depressing)

 

None of which is particularly compelling to me.

 

I don't disagree with any of your points on why he should be called up but the bullpen is not the place for him.  Meyer is a 6'9" guy that struggles to consistently get his body to follow the same motion, has warmed up the same way, had the same approach to a game and pitched multiple innings at a time as a starter for his entire life and whose future is in the rotation.  Moving him to a pen role for a month where he will be forced to warm up several times a game, will never actually know when or if he'll pitch, put different stresses on his shoulder seems like a very poor strategy.  If you want him up then put him in the rotation.  Otherwise you're taking up a roster spot that could actually be used on a reliever that might actually be a reliever next season at the same time you're messing with your future ace's psyche and health. 

[biswrest]

As a fan, I am sick and tired of them throwing out the likes of Correia who has no future with a winning twins team while keeping May and Meyer down in triple A which they have been consistently good, as opposed to what Terry Ryan tells us.

[Badsmerf]

Oxtung you have a point, but you are also missing the premise. If innings is the issue, the bullpen is the best place to manage him. He can still have a similar routine, he just isn't going to start games, just come in relief. Plus, what is his limit 150? So he could theoretically come up and start... then get sent to the pen to close out the year or shut down.

 

The premise is Meyer needs MLB innings to continue his development. He needs to face MLB hitters. He needs to struggle. He needs to be put in a situation that the start of 2015 he can take off running. The same goes for May. This organization has trouble convincing itself to start the season with rookies... yet they let these two guys spend the entire year in AAA without even a cup of coffee. Its maddening. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

On the other hand there is a long list of players that need to be evaluated for 40 man spots this off season or lose them.  So by adding Meyer to the 40 man to pitch in a role he has never been in his entire life, that will make absolutely no difference to his future, instead of a player that has legitimate questions about next season is not "nothing" or a "red herring".  There are very real reasons not to add him to the 40 man until after the season.

First of all, almost everyone advocating for him to be promoted now is not suggesting a bullpen role.  That's the compromise position with those who are resisting him starting in MLB right now.

 

Secondly, if the primary criteria is finding 2015 Twins, there is no shortage of available 40-man roster spots right now.  Florimon and Schafer are both out of options next spring, and project as very long shots to make the 25-man roster.  Fryer is also out of options, and is almost certainly replaceable in the offseason.  Correia and Willingham will be off the 40-man roster anyway by late October if they don't sign extensions (unlikely).  Burton has an option which could easily be declined.  Duensing and Swarzak are getting expensive and their roles are largely redundant with the cheaper Thielbar and Deduno, respectively.  Edgar Ibarra was just sent down to AA, suggesting he's not a strong candidate for 40-man retention.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't disagree with any of your points on why he should be called up but the bullpen is not the place for him.

Just to be clear: I don't advocate Meyer in the bullpen.  I was responding to a poster who advocated pitching him out the bullpen in September. I was merely asking, if September, why not now?

[twinssouth]

I should have posted yesterday to Jokin's article on Meyer's performance in Louisville which I thought was excellent.  Meyer's performance sounded almost like a repeat of his performance down here in Gwinnet first of June.  6 innings, 85 to 90 pitches, filthy fast ball, working on controlling his secondary stuff.  There's no doubt Meyer's potential, it's Ace material.  I should have added back on my posting few weeks ago, Meyer's last pitch (85th) was from a stretch, holding a man on at second, firing a chest high 98 rocket.  Batter whiffed big time.  I don't know of too many pitchers that can throw that hard from a stretch.  That's when all of us watching were shaking our head.

 

My 2 cents;  Will he come up? 

 

1st, I think Meyer is on a pitch limit, not a innings limit.  That is a big difference.  If Meyer can throw 90 pitches and make into the 7th or later (which is pretty d hard to do) then I think Twins brass will let him do it.

2nd)  He's never completed a full season of a 5 day pitching routine to my knowledge. 

3rd)  He's still healthy.  We're into August and no shoulder problems.  That's a big deal.  As long as he's healthy, he should continue to pitch to the end of season, rack up as many innings as he can, within his pitch count.

4th)  He has 3 good pitches to work with

 

All this is positive news for Meyer and his development.  So will he come up, in my opinion, no.  I'm probably wrong, Twins Brass could surprise us but I think he will come out of  Spring Training, taking Correia's spot in rotation.  The Twins no they have a winner, I don't see a need for Fall audition. 

[laloesch]

I am not a fan of how the Front office is managing this.  For the first time since the early 2000's this team FINALLY, has multiple high end starting pitching talents on the horizon.  Yet at the same time they are busy wasting time evaluating Darnell, Pino and Johnson. 

 

While I understand the need to evaluate all talents and leave no stone unturned, Ma and Meyer are both pushing 25 years old.   While I understand the angst with Meyer who needs further refinement, May should have been promoted by now, no excuses.  Both these guys are premium talents and should trump any of the AAAA talent we have been optioning back and forth to Rochester. 

 

What' complicated the issue even more is the acquisition of Tommy Milone (a soft tossing lefty).  Either he takes the place of Darnell or pushes Meyer and May down one slot further.  Honestly, I think it's time for several DFA's and offseason releases.      

[Otto von Ballpark]

1st, I think Meyer is on a pitch limit, not a innings limit.  That is a big difference.  If Meyer can throw 90 pitches and make into the 7th or later (which is pretty d hard to do) then I think Twins brass will let him do it.

2nd)  He's never completed a full season of a 5 day pitching routine to my knowledge. 

3rd)  He's still healthy.  We're into August and no shoulder problems.  That's a big deal.  As long as he's healthy, he should continue to pitch to the end of season, rack up as many innings as he can, within his pitch count.

The innings limit is in regards to his season innings total.  Rob Antony was quoted this spring as targeting a "standard" 30% increase, which would put Meyer in the 135-155 IP range for 2014 (depending on whether you count fall 2013 instructional league innings).  And I have no problem with that.

 

2012 was a full healthy season for Meyer, 25 starts in ~130 game season.  His 2 month absence in June and July of 2013 are the only starts he has missed in his nearly 3 year pro career thus far.

[tobi0040]

 The Twins no they have a winner, I don't see a need for Fall audition

 

 

 

Just because he is a good pitcher doesn't mean he would not beneift from a fall audition. He should make the 2015 team either way, but don't we wan't Meyer to be the best pitcher he could be and keep improving?  it seems like that should be a priority, over evaluating our 38th, 39th, or 40th person on our 40 man next year or figuring out right now who has the inside track on the #5 starter role next year or who will be 1st or 2nd in line next year.   These are not decisions that impact the long term health of the organization.  Our handling of Meyer could.

[Otto von Ballpark]

For the record, I don't endorse the Randy Johnson example either.  Meyer's case for promotion is made quite easily without it.

[Boom Boom]

I would be shocked to see Meyer up before rosters expand.

 

It might help sell a few more tickets if the Twins announced that Meyer would be starting a game or two... I think that might keep them from stashing him in the bullpen. 

Edited August 6, 2014 by Boom Boom

[twinssouth]

Tobi0040, thanks for bringing this to my attention.  Everybody is making good cases for bringing him up and I never thought his walk rate was out of hand.  I would be thrilled if he came up but I think the Twins are paranoid about his development.

[Shane Wahl]

Meyer has to be brought up and it should just be in the bullpen to keep him facing major league hitters for the duration of the season. I don't understand what is difficult about this. Swarzak and Burton need to go away anyway.

 

Next year's rotation should be Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, Nolasco, May with Milone involved somehow (or traded).

[h2oface]

So if the Twins don't bring Meyer up this year, what is to say they won't be motivated to not bring him up until july of 2015?  The same playing time, super 2, arbitration, and control arguments fit every year. I guess Will Middlebrooks should be the Twins GM.  Then it would happen. 

[tobi0040]

So if the Twins don't bring Meyer up this year, what is to say they won't be motivated to not bring him up until july of 2015?  The same playing time, super 2, arbitration, and control arguments fit every year. I guess Will Middlebrooks should be the Twins GM.  Then it would happen. 

 

I can't disagree that is a risk.  Some minor injury to his arm, shoulder, knee, whatever is now an excuse to hold him back until next years deadline.

 

Is it really a shoe in that he makes the team in April?  Pelfrey will be back and he really battles his tail off, a real veteran out there....

[Dantes929]

Rotation in 2015 should be Meyer, May, Hughes, Gibson and Milone with Nolasco involved somehow (or traded).    Milone has a lifetime 3.84 ERA and a current year ERA of 3.55 in the American League.  Nolasco has a 4.49 career ERA in the National League and current year ERA of 5.9.    Milone is a lefty with slow stuff that would play very well before or after Meyer in the rotation.   Twins could eat a lot of salary in Pelfrey and Nolasco but who really cares.   They were mainly insurance against Meyer and May flopping.     Payroll is going to be low even with those salaries because the young guys don't make the really big bucks.

[Dantes929]

Auditions should be for Meyer May and Milone.  We pretty much already know Johnson, Darnell and Pino can be rotation fillers much like we know they won't be front end guys.  

[jokin]

Where is the factual evidence that the walks are because of this new change up?  I must have missed that can you point me in the right direction?

 

Multiple reports have been posted about the new change up and his struggles with consistency with the pitch.  Plus, I got to see the pitch first hand on Sunday, my eyewitness viewing confirmed that he hasn't mastered full control of the pitch yet.

[jokin]

I think the problem with the walks is that it isn't going to show up as an extra walk every other game.  At 4.4 BB/9, he's walking a guy every other inning on average, for one... But more importantly, it will show up when his control isn't as sharp, at which point he doesn't make it out of the 3rd inning.  As it is, major league hitters are going to lay off those pitches more, which is going to tax the pen and shorten his starts.  This is why I think it would be great for him to pitch out of the pen in September. 

 

The numbers I derived are simple and straighforward.  For now, as Nick pointed out in posting Meyer's game log, he is pretty much strictly a 6-inning pitcher.  Thus, 

 

2014 BB/9  4.42  X .667 = 2.95 walks per appearance @ 6 innings.

2013 BB/9  3.73  X .667 = 2.49 walks per appearance @ 6 innings.  

 

That's .46 more walks per game, .92 more walks per two games. Pretty inconsequential for a power pitching/ground ball pitcher, your concern for his BB/9 uptick is somewhat out of proportion to the "problem".  And...taxing the pen has been an issue all season, nothing new to see here, and the guys Meyer would replace are having their own struggles pitching more than 5 innings, let alone 6 innings.

 

We're somewhat in agreement on Meyer pitching out of the pen, except it should have already happened months ago- at this point, I think he would best benefit developmentally by getting 5-6 major league starts and then get shut down.   Again, based on viewing him in person on Sunday and the seemingly effortless 91 pitches thrown vs. Louisville, he will not derive any further benefit from pitching more AAA innings.

Edited August 6, 2014 by jokin

[highlander]

I'm absolutely OK with him finishing the year at AAA. Next year stay the yeast add the third starter and never look back. Of course the organization is being careful with his arm, but until the organization adopts a Nolan Ryan approach to pitching (or Bert) or pitchers weep be molly coddled at all levels

[jokin]

For the record, I don't endorse the Randy Johnson example either.  Meyer's case for promotion is made quite easily without it.

 

Yep.  For the record, I concur, Meyer has made the case without the Big Unit comp.  But now the latest straw being grasped in holding Meyer back was the rise in BB/9 rate.  The pitcher's physical similarities- the resulting command and control issues that accompany 6'9-10" guys, plus both having the ability to throw 100 MPH deep into games make the comp for this stage of their development an apt refutation of that concern.  (Nothing else in the comp has been implied about Meyer being a HOF pitcher like Johnson).

[oldguy10]

The way Meyer and May are being handled is also just a prelude to how Stewart, Berrios, etc. will also be handled.   Is it a prudent course of action for any MLB franchise and which other team is handling their young pitchers in such a manner?   I am not attempting to be snarky here, I sincerely want to know.   I posit that the Twins should be treating their young pitching prospects exactly like the MLB team that is most successful at it.   Sure seems like the way to go for me, how about the rest of you?

[Brandon]

is it really the same, though?

 

There seems to be something significantly different about 2nd and 3rd times through the line-up from the 1st.  Unless you're thinking of him as a reliever, it seems to me that he really wouldn't get "the experience" from short starts.

 

maybe, maybe not, He will be close to his innings pitched and there is being able to come up and face live major league hitters. It m not be enough for him to gain situational experience, but he can get the initial experience of being up out of the way. 

[Paul Pleiss]

Alex Meyer will never pitch in Minnesota becasue TR and the rest in the front office are worried about "consistency" and a bunch of other junk that doesn't matter. Meyer is 25, he knows how to pitch, Bring him up. What's the advantage to letting him continue to throw innings in AAA? We know he can do that. Can he do it at the MLB level? It's time to find out.

Edited August 7, 2014 by ChiTownTwinsFan

[tobi0040]

The way Meyer and May are being handled is also just a prelude to how Stewart, Berrios, etc. will also be handled.   Is it a prudent course of action for any MLB franchise and which other team is handling their young pitchers in such a manner?   I am not attempting to be snarky here, I sincerely want to know.   I posit that the Twins should be treating their young pitching prospects exactly like the MLB team that is most successful at it.   Sure seems like the way to go for me, how about the rest of you?

 

I don't know of a single franchise that would still have Meyer down in AAA.  Some would maybe start him in the pen, others in the rotation.  Some would have brought him up before the super 2 deadline because they don't care.  Most would have brought him up right after.  But I truly believe every other franchise would conclude he has nothing to prove and they would want to futher his development by testing him up here.