Report: Twins to take Buxton

[Jim Crikket]

  righty8383 said:

Not right away but next year would be a safe bet. Also mlhouse suggesting Correa or Buxton would take 6 years is quite extreme. Even the Twins wouldn't take nearly that long to get such a high pick through the minors unless something goes wrong. 3or 4 years would be more accurate.

3-4 years to get a HS position player through the system? The Twins? I wouldn't bet my paycheck on that. yes, Buxton or Correa could follow a path similar to Mauer, but the Twins rarely push a teenage positional prospect aggressively.

[Dilligaf69]

  mlhouse said:

Correa and Buxton are no sure shots even if they have the highest "upside". But the Twins organization simply cannot wait 6 years for them to develop. THey need pitching help now, and that means a college arm.

I would agree with this

[Cap'n Piranha]

  nicksaviking said:

It seems inevitable. I still don't know why there haven't been any comparasons to Donavan Tate, they seem so comparable, same size, position and stats; both are "5 tool" guys from rural Georgia devoid of real compition. Tate has been such a bust, it worries me. It just seems like there was a vacuum caused by a lack of big name bats this year and Buxton is the name who got pushed to fill the void.

I'll admit, I'm not well versed on Donovan Tate, but here's a link to an SI piece on Buxton. How much of this is media gloss and trying to tell a story I don't know, but if half of it is true, it's pretty good

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/web/COM1198695/index.htm

 

Incidentally, in A-Rod's senior season he hit .505 with 9 homers, and comparable stolen base numbers. For those concerned about Buxton's power, there is a throw-away stat in the article above that says Buxton hit 14 homers in his sophomore year, and then stopped getting pitches to hit. Take it for what it's worth.

[Dilligaf69]

  Gernzy said:

None of them are sure things. That is the biggest problem with this draft. Typical we have a high draft pick and the field is weak.

 

I would say this for the ML draft in general not just this yr but every yr...way more then the other major sports drafts because it takes so long to develop most of these guys.

[righty8383]

  Jim Crikket said:

3-4 years to get a HS position player through the system? The Twins? I wouldn't bet my paycheck on that. yes, Buxton or Correa could follow a path similar to Mauer, but the Twins rarely push a teenage positional prospect aggressively.

3-4 years is not aggressive by any teams standards for a player taken so high. Cuddyer, Kubel, Mauer, Morneau were all drafted out of high school and they were all in the bigs within or around 4 years. Not all these guys were even 1st rounders. So the point is, if THEY can move through in that amount of time, why can't Buxton so long as he's producing? Oh yeah, and Revere too. So 6 years IS extreme.

[travistwinstalk]

A similiar case was Denard Span who was drafted in first round in 2002 and didn't become a Twins regular until 2008 that is 6 years of minor league time. then there is Michael Cuddyer who was taken 9th in 1997 and didn't make Twins debut until 2003. Even to the extreme Jason Kubel he was a 12th rounder who moved through the system and he spent 5 minor league seasons. What I am trying to say that Joe Mauer, Bryce Harper,and Ken Griffey Jr. are oddities and not the norm. Normally a high school hitter takes 5-6 years to get to the big leagues and thats just the way it is. So for those that think Buxton or Correa are going to be playing at Target Field inside the next 5 years you are fooling yourself that is not happening.

[Chance]

1) Gausman 2) Giolito 3) Correa.

 

If Gausman and Buxton both pan out, which one would you rather have? Number 1-2 starter or another span like player?

[Chance]

  Chance said:

1) Gausman 2) Giolito 3) Correa.

 

If Gausman and Buxton both pan out, which one would you rather have? Number 1-2 starter or another span like player?

Gausman could also be in the majors as soon as 2014 where buxton is more likely 2017ish

[righty8383]

  travistwinstalk said:

A similiar case was Denard Span who was drafted in first round in 2002 and didn't become a Twins regular until 2008 that is 6 years of minor league time. then there is Michael Cuddyer who was taken 9th in 1997 and didn't make Twins debut until 2003. Even to the extreme Jason Kubel he was a 12th rounder who moved through the system and he spent 5 minor league seasons. What I am trying to say that Joe Mauer, Bryce Harper,and Ken Griffey Jr. are oddities and not the norm. Normally a high school hitter takes 5-6 years to get to the big leagues and thats just the way it is. So for those that think Buxton or Correa are going to be playing at Target Field inside the next 5 years you are fooling yourself that is not happening.

Cuddyer made his debut in 2001, thats 4 years by my math. Kubel was drafted in 2000 and dubuted in 2004. Span is your only legit example. He moved slow then got screwed out of a job when the Twins traded for Gomez. So the saying that I am fooling myself by thinking that Correa or Buxton will be in the bigs within 5 years, well, the evidence suggests otherwise, all you have to do is take a look.

[twinstalker]

There is no doubt about Correa's hit tool. With Buxton there is all kinds of doubt. People compare him to BJ Upton. I'll be honest, I'd be disappointed if they ended up with someone equally as good as BJ Upton. Correa may take four years, but he'll be in the majors raking. Of all the players mentioned for the top seven, Correa has the best risk/upside combo.

[luckylager]

Gausman does not appear to project as an "Ace". [h=5]Scouting Report from mlb.com[/h]Fastball: Gausman has plenty of arm strength. He's been up to 95 mph in the past and was sitting 89-93 mph in this start.

Fastball movement: Throws a pretty straight fastball.

Slider: It's a below-average slider that's been flat and without bite.

Curve: His curve is below-average.

Changeup: He has trouble throwing his changeup for strikes.

Control: Shows average overall command but struggles commanding his secondary stuff.

Poise: Has decent mound presence.

Physical Description: Gausman is tall and wiry. He's projectable, but he might have some difficulty putting on weight.

Medical Update: Healthy.

Strengths: It's all about arm strength and the ability to throw an above-average to plus fastball. He's got a projectable frame and is very athletic.

Weaknesses: His secondary stuff is all below-average, both in command and effectiveness.

Summary: Gausman is a known name in Draft circles after hitting the summer showcase circuits. In those settings, he was able to show off his plus arm strength and the ability to light up radar guns from a projectable frame. This spring, however, he hasn't shown the aptitude to do much else consistently. His secondary stuff has not been sharp, and he struggles to throw any of those offerings for strikes. As a "name" prospect who does have big-time arm strength, he's still likely to garner some interest, but it seems like his stock has taken a hit this spring.

[Chance]

As far as position players go I feel that Correa is a better pick than Buxton. And i feel that if Gausman, who resently started throwing a slider instead of a curve, develops a nice breaking ball that he can get strike outs with he will be an "Ace" type pitcher.

[CDog]

This is a more general question than the thread, perhaps, but it keeps coming up here about how long it will take various people to get to the big leagues. Generally speaking, why do "we" care? Are some of you planning to stop being Twins fans in the next few years and don't want to miss the debut of Prospect X if it's outside that window? As long as the path isn't ridiculously long where you start to lose them to Rule 5 draft or they're not ready when they're out of options (both seem to be worries outside the scope of this discussion), shouldn't the concern be how good they can be when they do get to the big league team?

[Chance]

Gausman

 

10-1, 2.84 ERA, 15 GS, 1072/3 IP, 93 H, 38 R, 34 ER, 24 BB, 125 K

 

Low walk and high strike out rates. He recently switched to a slider and it has been steadily improving as he has been throwing it. He has been gaining control with his change up which is said to be "major league ready." How many pitching prospects come out with a plus breaking ball and plus arm strength? Buxton hasn't shown power or much offense for the level of competition he has played against. I rather trust a pitcher to tune his pitches with major league help than a batter to learn how to bat. He might have great defense but to me he won't be anything more than a Hicks, talented but cant put it together to be an all-star player which is what you want with the second pick. He has too many question marks to draft at 2.

[Jim Crikket]

  righty8383 said:

3-4 years is not aggressive by any teams standards for a player taken so high. Cuddyer, Kubel, Mauer, Morneau were all drafted out of high school and they were all in the bigs within or around 4 years. Not all these guys were even 1st rounders. So the point is, if THEY can move through in that amount of time, why can't Buxton so long as he's producing? Oh yeah, and Revere too. So 6 years IS extreme.

If all you want to look at is time before a MLB debut, that's fine, but as long as a player is still playing most of his season in the minor leagues, I don't think we can consider him to have gotten "through the minors" in this organization.

 

Cuddyer was drafted in 1997 and didn't play more games at the MLB level than in the minors until 2004.

Kubel was drafted in 2000 and didn't play more games at the MLB level than in the minors until 2006 (granted the 2005 year was lost to injury, so he never completed 5 full years of minor league ball).

Justin Morneau was drafted in 1999 and didn't play more than half a season at the MLB level until 2005.

Ben Revere made it in four years, but I'd suggest that was as much due to lack of other options last year as it was to his own performance.

 

Point is simply that anyone who thinks a HS position player who's drafted #2 tonight by the Twins will automatically be suiting up for them on an everyday basis four years from now is likely being ambitously optimistic. Mauer did it in three years, but that doesn't happen often.

[Jim Crikket]

  righty8383 said:

Cuddyer made his debut in 2001, thats 4 years by my math. Kubel was drafted in 2000 and dubuted in 2004. Span is your only legit example. He moved slow then got screwed out of a job when the Twins traded for Gomez. So the saying that I am fooling myself by thinking that Correa or Buxton will be in the bigs within 5 years, well, the evidence suggests otherwise, all you have to do is take a look.

You started out by saying 3-4 years to get "through the minors" isn't aggressive, but now the standard is having a MLB debut within 5 years? The latter, I'll agree with... a debut within 5 years isn't unusual. But that's not "through the minors" unless he (unlike your examples) sticks and it doesn't make 6 years "quite extreme" if it happens to take that long.

[DaveW]

http://i47.tinypic.com/1604mdg.jpg