What Should be Done in the Next Five Days

[stringer bell]

I pretty much agree drjim.  However, I don't think it's possible to get proper return for all the relief pitchers you suggest to be jettisoned.  Perhaps that will have to wait until the off-season.  Correia, Willingham and Suzuki can and should go. 

 

While you list only two outfielders, Parm has played more games in the OF than first base and Nuñez has played there quite a bit, as has Herrmann.  That is plenty of OFs, all but Arcia are reserves on anything but a team limping to the finish line. 

 

BTW, I would hope that Hicks would compete in the playoffs in Rochester before he is recalled and then only if he thrives.  I am hoping Buxton moves to NB within a week and that Rosario is also moved up, but he does have to hit in the meantime.

 

Gee, I forgot about Santana in the OF, as well.  There are plenty of outfielders, just not enough good ones. 

[beckmt]

Problem with cleaning out the expiring contracts is Correia  and Willingham will bring nothing in return. Duensing and Burton will bring next to nothing in return.  Best bet is to trade Swarzak and move Correia to long relief.  I also am from bringing up the kids, but trades have to make sense.  Otherwise bring them up in September and clean the roster at the end of the year.

Do not think Terry Ryan is part of the problem, he had nothing in the farm system when he started and has rebuilt it to the second best system in baseball.  That system will show up if not next year in 2016, though I think we should go with all kids in 2015 and hope the improvement takes over in 2016.  Just have enough veterans around to show the way. 

[Rosterman]

Clean out the vets and play the younger guys seems obvious. This year is actually a little different than the last couple because they have vets in the last year of deals with some value and some players in AAA that can actually replace them.

 

Here is the 25 I would roll out on Aug 1:

 

Pinto Herrmann Fryer

Colabello Parmelee

Dozier

Santana Escobar

Nunez Plouffe

Arcia Fuld

 

Mauer back soon, Hicks, Vargas, Polanco Sept guys

 

SP: Hughes Gibson Johnson May Meyer

LH: Darnell Thielbar Perkins

RH: Deduno Swarzak Pressly Tonkin Pino

 

Nolasco back whenever, Pryor as potential Sept guy

 

13 man staff to protect young starters

OF is ugly

Wow! And 8 of these guys probably should be gone from the 40-man over the winter. Whew. Fien still has a year of control. It is a gamble if he is worth more now to someone, or should we keep him and he becomes Burton. Burton and Crain were both kept a year longer than necessary. We also have names like Achter, Thompson, Guerra, Hamburger, Oliveros for bullpen arms this year or next.

 

But anyone of the 40-man gets a September call...even Kepler. Give him a taste of the bigs from the becnh for motivation!

 

See the Twins brought Rodriguez up to AAA. There are enough AAAA vets at New Brit to move into the Rchester roster to keep them playoff contenders.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Averaging records across different seasons does not quite work, because in baseball individual seasons count. 

 

Indeed they do, but in this argument you're essentially calling a .250 and a .400 winning percentage the same thing.

 

Whereas I look at that .400 percentage and see a bad team. I look at that .250 percentage and see a team so awful that it makes the 2003 Tigers want to throw a parade.

 

You're equating any season worse than 2011-2014 the equal of 2011-2014 yet if the team is one win better, that entire streak of ineptitude is negated. It's bad analysis because it ignores massive variance on one end in favor of focusing solely on minor variance on the other.

 

To keep it simple:

 

.250 is much farther from .400 than .400 is from .430. When the Senators were bad, they were much worse than the 2011-2014 Twins. When they were better, they were marginally better. Therefore, overall they were worse teams.

[eLee612]

If you had a bag of blue corn tortilla chips (because that's the best kind) that were all stale and chewy, you'd probably realize after a while that the bag is not going to miraculously crisp back up and be ready for the glory of pico and guac. That bag would eventually find its way to the basura and you'd eventually find your way to the grocery store for some new chips.

 

We need some new chips.

 

Correia, despite the fact that I love the sound of his name, is probably on the top of my list. Yesterday at a signing my buddy asked Correia if he ices his shoulder, does stim, deep tissue massage, etc. His answer was along the lines of 'Nah, I don't do that. Some players do, but I don't.' I am glad you are so confident in your game and your 5.06 era...

 

I'd like to see Suzuki stay through the end of the year. Gardy too for that matter, through at least 2015. Get May and Meyer up here for a little playing time. Worst case scenario... they gain experience. Best case scenario... they blow everyone's mind.

 

Non MLB prayers/projections - I'd like to see the MN girls RBI team make it to the World Series in TX in August and kick butt!

[bird]

The Twins will finish the season with 72-74 wins in my admittedly optimistic view. This record will have exceeded the pre-season expectations of the majority of you, I believe. The value of playing the young guys, in terms of what it does to prepare them for success in 2015, is being a bit overblown, I think. That said, getting value for the vets, which is what Ryan's trying to do, is the right effort to make. Unfortunately, outside of Suzuki, and possibly his surplus of passable relief arms, he's got nothing to work with.

 

If I'm the GM, in the next five days I'm trying to get a return for the obvious candidates, not so much because it's that imperative to play the young guys, but because, at EVERY deadline and over EVERY winter, I'm a potential trader, for VALUE, of my surpluses. I'm not going to DFA guys like Burton, or even Correia, just to appease  some fans. I'm staying focused on the long haul and staying committed to developing my young talent, at the pace my staff sees fit, in the environment most suited for that purpose. I'll live with the fact that my fan base will erode a bit, knowing that I'll always have a core fan base that likes seeing the emergence of the new guys and can live with a 70+ win team in 2014.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

My two cents...

 

Offer Suzuki a two year 15 mill deal.  If he takes it--fine.  If not--trade him.

 

Then start fire sale--Willingham, Correia, Nolasco, Plouffe, bullpen guys.  We wont get much--but will open spots.  Bring up Meyer, May, Hicks (Aaron not DJ), Pinto etc.  Play them and see if they are part of the future or not.  Trade Mauer if can find takers--his contract is albatross--so probably no takers.

 

2015--go with kids Buxton, Sano, Walker, DJ Hicks, etc.  They will take lumps but give them chance.  Bring up Dougie or Jake Mauer to manage and the other to coach (along with Watkins and Lucas).

 

Gardy must be gone.  Ryan too--with replacement outsde the Twins org.

[Brandon]

In the next 5 days we should trade a few wets.  I was initially against this but I am seeing too much quit in the team right now and it makes sense to have 1 more go at a top draft pick.  I thought we would be a .500 team and we should stand pat and go for a .500 season.  I think the team started going down hill when we lost 5 1 run games in a row back when we played Boston and Texas but have done nothing since the all star break.  this 10 game stretch was vital and we just quit.  With that said we should do the following:

 

1.  Extend Terry Ryan.  (I know he has a lifetime contract or so but this tells the public we stand behind him)  He has made numerous incremental improvements to the team since he has come back.   Our Farm System is 1 or 2 in the major leagues right now.  We have a base of talent to work with and more on the way in the near future.  He actually went out and signed a high priced Free Agent that didn't work out (Nolasco) One that did (Hughes), and one in season (Morales)  I am most impressed he went out and brought Morales here.  Now he is making the call to trade for prospects and set the team up in the near future.  How many prospects will be on the team by the end of next season?  we could have May, Meyer, Gibson, and Berrios in the rotation at the end of next season.  we still have Hughes and Nolasco too. 

 

2.  By August 1rst trade Corriea and a reliever.  This should open up spots for some of our other pitchers who are ready to gain experience here. 

 

3. The Twins should start showing minor league highlights on news casts, news papers, and their Jumbo-tron as they are the future of our winning and help sell the fanbase on patience. 

 

4.  Not sure on trading Suzuki or not.  I guess if they want to put Pinto back up here they should trade him otherwise there is no point other than to secure the top draft pick by losing more games.  On Willingham we should trade him if we can replace him in the lineup.  I don't remember seeing anyone unless they want to bring up Hicks to see him again. 

 

5.  Extend me free tickets to any game I want to see for the rest of my life.  (Since we are dreaming here I am going all out) 

[drjim]

A week from now I'll be watching a different team.  Will it be the Twins or the Brewers remains to be seen, but it won't be these Twins.   Willingham, Correia, Plouffe, for starters and maybe 3 others should all be on other teams.  One week, that's it.  And if Plouffe doesn't go, then we might as well keep the rest too, because this team will never be anything but last place fodder til Plouffe is gone.  Mark my words. 

 

Why the Plouffe hate?

[drjim]

Did anyone listen to Talking Twins this morning with Terry Ryan?

 

May is going to be up pretty soon. Innings issues coming off the injury that have been talked about endlessly.

 

He was a little more slippery with Meyer, but seemed more open to it than I thought he might be.

[DocBauer]

In response to losing stretches, Gardenhire gone, etc, I think you have to have a wider perspective. Despite a very poor stretch, TK was also overseeing some of the best teams the Twins had, including his 2 World Series wins. And his last season brought the Twins back to a quality level of play and respectability. Not coincidentally, he had a better collection of talent at that time as well.

 

Gardenhire has had, I believe, the longest stretch of quality and winning baseball in Twins history. At least modern day history. He had only one losing season until 2011, multiple division championships and playoff appearances, and one "close" appearance when we lost game 163. Now, looking at the past 3 1/2 seasons, I repeat myself when I claim a mulligan in 2011. Once again, we were coming off 95 wins, had the majority of the team back, and injuries devastated that team. Now, '11 '12 were a flat out mess. And up to the All Star break this season, the team actually was much better, and with just a little more consistency, might have been .500.

 

But this thread is about the next 5 days, so enough of that. Just tossing these thoughts out since they were brought up.

[DocBauer]

I'm not sure we can really address moves pending and simply place them in a 5 day time frame.

 

That being said, I do think Willingham is gone in the next few days. The return won't be much, but I don't think it was ever going to be unless he was more healthy this year and more or less mashed.

 

Correia should also be gone soon, possibly by weeks end. Until his last two starts, he was actually pitching quite well. But age, expiring contract, a back of the rotation starter, I don't know that his value was very high in regard to a return anyway, so I don't know if two off games will greatly affect his trade.

 

I wonder if the Yankees would be interested in both?

 

Burton might be moved after the deadline. There are probably several pen arms out there to be had, but he is actually pitching well, and has been for some time after a lousy streak earlier. And he has a good track history his first two seasons. Still, he's a mid-30's RP with expiring contract. What can you really expect?

 

May and Meyer should be up soon. And I could easily see the Twins working with a 6 man rotation in September to work as many arms and future arms in as possible, as well as controlling innings pitched levels. I don't know who comes up first, Tonkin or Achter, but whoever doesn't will be up in September.

 

Pinto will also be up soon, if not immediately. I wonder when, and if, you bring up Hicks again?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Did anyone listen to Talking Twins this morning with Terry Ryan?

 

May is going to be up pretty soon. Innings issues coming off the injury that have been talked about endlessly.

 

He was a little more slippery with Meyer, but seemed more open to it than I thought he might be.

Thanks for the info, missed the interview.  I still feel like May should have been more of a priority in May-June, before the injury was even an issue.  Was really weird to see him promised for the Futures Game AFTER Deduno was bounced from his spot.

 

Frankly, it was weird seeing Meyer promised to the Futures Game too.  He had already been to the Futures Game once, and now he was in AAA and on the cusp on MLB.  If not mid-June when the Deduno/Pino stuff was going down, Meyer could have easily been placed in the rotation after the all-star break but we chose Pino and Johnson.  He could have also been held back and slotted into the Saturday start as soon as we sent Johnson down.

[Halsey Hall]

No hate, why do people throw that word around so loosely?  Plouffe isn't and never will be good enough other than a lucky month to be a major leaguer. 

 

And I've still got 2 warning points!

[nicksaviking]

No hate, why do people throw that word around so loosely?  Plouffe isn't and never will be good enough other than a lucky month to be a major leaguer. 

 

And I've still got 2 warning points!

 

It just seemed odd that he got singled out when there are issues with 80% of the 40-man roster. 

[Badsmerf]

Lol halsey. Let's get rid of a league average 3b coming into his prime years that has immense position flexibility. What did plouffe do to you to make you so mad at him? What happens if Sano has to move off 3b?

[twinsfan34]

I'd be for Plouffe trying LF or RF. Might actually be an asset - his arm isn't so bad. Likely when Willingham is traded. 

 

I do think Sano will stick at 3B. I'm no scout. But I believe he's agile enough to man the position and will be given every chance to do so. e.g. this Spring Training there was no moving him off the bag. 

 

I'm not one to 'preach' platoon. However, I do think you can play to strengths and it should be done. Plouffe fits the stereotype of better vs lefties, but solid enough to warrant some ABs vs righties. 

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=plouftr01&year=Career&t=b

 

The question would then be is much better (if at all) than say, Escobar or Nunez. 

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nunezed02.shtml

 

Plouffe: 95 OPS+ L/R split vs LH .276/.345/.484 vs RH .228/.287.383, FA in 2018

Nunez: 87 OPS+ L/R split vs LH .265/.300/.392 vs RH .266/.315/.371, FA in 2018

Escobar is much like Nunez with an even split. FA in 2019

 

Then you have Polanco coming along...and will he be better than those options? Or enough to push Dozier to 3B or take 3B himself...at least until Sano would have a shot and/or lose the position. 

 

The semi 'scary' thing is, even Dozier despite his nice power/speed numbers only has a .230/.325/.418 statline and a .237/.306/.395 career line in 1429 career PA's.

 

One way or another, we're going to need to find guys hitting in slots 1-5 that are .330 OBP and higher types to be successful. 

 

Plouffe, Dozier, Nunez, Escobar, etc would fit in slots 6, 7, 8, and 9 on a good team. Dozier may be a able enough at #2 though. 

 

So yeah, trade Willingham, see if Plouffe is able to play some OF. 

 

Hopefully trade Suzuki as well, and Pinto gets another 110-150 PAs to end the season. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't understand why Plouffe is being discussed.  He's cost controlled for quite some time and is league average.  He's heading into his prime.  He's of some value ot about half the teams in the league right now, and that could improve if he improves.  Add to it that Sano won't be starting 2015 in the big leagues.  Plouffe can be traded when Sano is ready, or moved to a corner spot if one is available. 

[Cris E]

I'm not a huge believer in Plouffe either, so if he has value I say we should send him out. His D is OK, his bat is blah, and we have A Guy coming up behind him soon enough that someone like Nunez can hold the fort. If you can find something interesting out there then Trevor Plouffe is not the kind of player that should stop you from making a trade.

[Thegrin]

Willingham will be gone. I'd like to see Parmalee and Colabello get Willingham's at bats.

Get something decent for Suzuki.

They have been giving Pinto a lot of at bats as a DH.  What does that mean ?  Does Pinto have the ability to be a league average defensive catcher ?

Is Nunez or Fuld really an answer to any question ?

If Florimon had hit .235 would he still be the Twins SS ? Would Escobar have gotten a chance ?

Keep playing Santana in CF, please,  but keep his SS glove handy. 

Run Arcia out there every game. 

Don't forget, that Pino Darnell & Johnson could also be effective relievers.

 

and for all us Twins Fans, keep praying for the full & speedy recovery of Hughes, Nolasco and Gibson.

[tobi0040]

I don't understand why Plouffe is being discussed.  He's cost controlled for quite some time and is league average.  He's heading into his prime.  He's of some value ot about half the teams in the league right now, and that could improve if he improves.  Add to it that Sano won't be starting 2015 in the big leagues.  Plouffe can be traded when Sano is ready, or moved to a corner spot if one is available. 

Bingo.  Hard to see the rush to move Plouffe, especially given that nobody expects a top prospect in return.  Sano is not a lock to stick at 3B and Plouffe is the next best option by far. It is a pretty hard position to fill.   Any mention of Escobar will get a response of his career .646 OPS, BTW.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't understand why Plouffe is being discussed.  He's cost controlled for quite some time and is league average.  He's heading into his prime.  He's of some value ot about half the teams in the league right now, and that could improve if he improves.  Add to it that Sano won't be starting 2015 in the big leagues.  Plouffe can be traded when Sano is ready, or moved to a corner spot if one is available. 

 

I mostly agree, I don't think we need to do anything with Plouffe at the moment.  I enjoy Halsey's semi-irrational dislike of him, though!

 

If Plouffe is heading into his prime, it sure isn't showing in his batting statistics, which have been more or less steady since 2011.

 

Also, while Plouffe does seem to rank ~15th in OPS+/wRC+ among qualified 3rd basemen, he ranks in the lower third (20-25) if you lower the "qualified" threshold just a little to account for injuries, call-ups, etc.  I did some research in another thread, and Twins 3B production in the "Plouffe era" was not notably different from our 3B production in the 2005-2011 quagmire years at that position.

 

He's probably a lower third MLB third baseman, generally regarded as incapable of moving higher on the defensive spectrum, due $3-4-5 million or so over the next 3 years.  Probably more immediately useful to us than valuable to others.

[tobi0040]

My two cents...

 

Offer Suzuki a two year 15 mill deal.  If he takes it--fine.  If not--trade him.

 

Then start fire sale--Willingham, Correia, Nolasco, Plouffe, bullpen guys.  We wont get much--but will open spots.  Bring up Meyer, May, Hicks (Aaron not DJ), Pinto etc.  Play them and see if they are part of the future or not.  Trade Mauer if can find takers--his contract is albatross--so probably no takers.

 

2015--go with kids Buxton, Sano, Walker, DJ Hicks, etc.  They will take lumps but give them chance.  Bring up Dougie or Jake Mauer to manage and the other to coach (along with Watkins and Lucas).

 

Gardy must be gone.  Ryan too--with replacement outsde the Twins org.

 

When you look at the state of the Twins when Terry Ryan took over, it is hard for me to conclude that he needs to be replaced.  When you lose 95 games and the MLB team and farm system is bare, priority #1 is rebuilding the farm system so you can get better for the future in a sustainable fashion.  By any measure, Terry has done that very, very well.  While a poor MLB team has helped with this via good draft picks.  We have drafted very well, Buxton, Kohl, and Gordon (early on Gordon), Berrios.  In time I think Gonslaves and Burdi will be good picks.  Walker was a good value in round 3.  And flipping Span and Revere for Meyer and May could end up being a coup. 

 

Theo Epstein gets all this credit for the Cubs and he has basically done the same thing Terry has done, while drafting in a better position in 2013 and 2014.

 

I think it was inexcusable that we didn't spend more money to make this team watchable early on in his tenure and we can criticize Matt G, Kubel, Bartlett, etc.  But the most important thing could not really have been done any better. 

[Winston Smith]

I think Ryan gets a lot more credit for the farm system than he deserves. The farm system was not good when he retired and I'm not a Smith fan but the system did improve it's rankings, from the late teens to the early teens, over the time he was in charge. Mostly because he spent a bunch of money on guys like Sano and Kepler.

Drafting in the top 5 for three years should make any farm better. Adding May and Meyer at the expense of having no Major League caliber center fielder for 2 years may or may not work out. Time will tell.

[Mike Sixel]

Only 2 years of no MLB CF? You sure on that?

[drjim]

I think Ryan gets a lot more credit for the farm system than he deserves. The farm system was not good when he retired and I'm not a Smith fan but the system did improve it's rankings, from the late teens to the early teens, over the time he was in charge. Mostly because he spent a bunch of money on guys like Sano and Kepler.

Drafting in the top 5 for three years should make any farm better. Adding May and Meyer at the expense of having no Major League caliber center fielder for 2 years may or may not work out. Time will tell.

 

I think posts like this underrate the job Ryan has done. It is completely focused on how taken got into the organization and nothing about development. When Ryan took over all the farm teams were a mess, he has installed a new Farm Director, new managers/coaches, and the organization on the minor league side has stabilized in a major way the last three years.

 

Keep in mind, too, that while the farm system wasn't in great shape when Ryan left, there were definitely strong assets in the majors to work with (or trade) and those were more or less squandered with little to show for it long term.

[Halsey Hall]

LOL, yup, get rid of him.  What's he done to me, absolutely nothing.  Shown me absolutely nothing in his time here.  I'd rather have Luke Hughes playing there, and if given the rope Plouffe has been given, we'd most likely have a better 3rd baseman.  I've said it before, like last year, and will continue to stick with it, Plouffe  doesn't help us and we'll never amount to anything with him on the team.  And I'll say this again, MARK MY WORDS!  

 

I mentioned him in the first place because posters were saying what they'd do in the short term.  I'd move him, Willingham and Correia to start things off.  Those 3 have no future here. 

[Shane Wahl]

Another year and nearly the exact same thing results. I was pretty vocal last offseason about demanding accountability from the top on down through the pitching coach and then also with key people in the minors (Steil, in particular, and now Johnson as well). There was a lot of "well, the manager doesn't really do anything" kind of talk in response. What about now? Antony already showed me that he cannot be TR's successor. So . . . a total revamping is necessary. And a total commitment to the youth movement needs to start. It should have started this year. Hicks-Santana-Arcia in the OF, Pinto up, May, Meyer, Achter, Oliveros up (some of this may still happen . . .).

[Shane Wahl]

Also, let us not forget Terry Ryan's remarks about Eric Fryer in that interview for Twins Daily. Never forget.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I've said it before, like last year, and will continue to stick with it, Plouffe  doesn't help us and we'll never amount to anything with him on the team.  And I'll say this again, MARK MY WORDS!

 

I really think you're overly harsh on Plouffe. Is he a star? No. Is he even average? Hard to say, he teeters between "acceptable league-average starter" and "ugh".

 

But he has value, particularly on a team with no suitable replacement.

 

It's not Plouffe's fault that he has been jammed into roles not tailored to his skillset. As a roving corner utility guy off the bench primarily against lefties, he'd be a valuable player that helps a contender win ballgames.