Twins Suzuki far apart on extension

[John Bonnes]

I'm on record as saying I'd be willing to go two years on Suzuki at $12M or so, and I could see stretching that. But three years is a non-starter. At that point, he's trade bait.

 

This rumor would be a lot more interesting if we knew roughly what each side was looking for. If the Twins were at 2/10 (like Doumit) or a one-year extenstion and Suzuki was at 2/14, that might be considered "far apart" but I'd lean towards signing him.

 

Mostly, I'm glad to hear that these discussions are taking place before the deadline. It puts the Twins in a no-lose situation. Either they solve their catching problem for the next couple of years at a fairly reasonable price, or we get to see Ryan canvas another team's farm system. I find both appealing.

[James]

I'm on record as saying I'd be willing to go two years on Suzuki at $12M or so, and I could see stretching that. But three years is a non-starter. At that point, he's trade bait.

 

This rumor would be a lot more interesting if we knew roughly what each side was looking for. If the Twins were at 2/10 (like Doumit) or a one-year extenstion and Suzuki was at 2/14, that might be considered "far apart" but I'd lean towards signing him.

 

Mostly, I'm glad to hear that these discussions are taking place before the deadline. It puts the Twins in a no-lose situation. Either they solve their catching problem for the next couple of years at a fairly reasonable price, or we get to see Ryan canvas another team's farm system. I find both appealing.

I agree with this 100%. Couldn't have said it better.

[bird]

While it is well-known that the majority of Suzukl's defensive value is derived from his distracting the batter by coughing or spitting loudly just as the ball is thrown, the metrics just aren't there to measure just HOW effective he is. White papers are to be presented at the next SABR conference presenting theories on just HOW distracted the batter gets and exactly HOW this affects bat speed and how long the bat stays on the swing plane, etc. FanGraphs is working frantically to install a humidity detector within the strike zone.

 

So, I guess all we really know right now, for absolute sure, is he calls a good game for absolute sure and scores kinda low on framing stuff.

[Otto von Ballpark]

This rumor would be a lot more interesting if we knew roughly what each side was looking for. If the Twins were at 2/10 (like Doumit) or a one-year extenstion and Suzuki was at 2/14, that might be considered "far apart" but I'd lean towards signing him.

 

I don't think anyone would characterize those offers as "far apart".

 

Suzuki's only free agent deal is his current minor one; he didn't even get the decent FA option year salary from his previous contract, as it was declined. He will never be in a better position that he is now (or will be this winter), so I am guessing he's looking for a Saltalamacchia type deal (3/21) until/unless the open market tells him otherwise.

[Siehbiscuit]

I wont get all technical and spew a bunch of numbers at everyone, but look at Kyle Gibson. As a groundball inducing pitcher, he greatly struggled with Mauer catching because Mauer was terrible at getting the "low" strike called. Has Gibson improved? Absolutely. Could NOT having a 6'6 catcher behind the plate be benefiting Gibson? These are the small things that are hard to calculate? Mauer's been heralded as a good-to-great catcher (blocking, throwing, game calling, etc) but getting the RIGHT guy for our staff is what matters.

 

Does Pinto's bat outweigh the potential lack of confidence the staff may have in him blocking their pitches in the dirt. Great pitching staffs frequently use out pitches that may bounce. As the Twins start going to more power arms (fastball/slider combos of Meyer, May, Berrios and Stewart) is Pinto the guy that will be/should catching them? Personally, I'd rather have all defense, bad offense (Butera) if the staff could pitch to its strengths and actually throw an out pitch in the dirt from time to time. The Rays have done this with Jose Molina. He blocks EVERYTHING (it helps he is as wide as a school bus).

 

Offense vs. defense, take the positional WAR out of it. Does his defensive contributions, game-calling equate to more WINS because he makes the staff that much more effective or is it worth sacrificing the pitching quality for more offense?

[Otto von Ballpark]

While it is well-known that the majority of Suzukl's defensive value is derived from his distracting the batter by coughing or spitting loudly just as the ball is thrown,

 

Don't forget masking insults behind sneezes.

 

I think Pinto is working on that one in Rochester, but Venezuelan sneezes are a bit more unintelligible by nature, so it's a long process.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

While it is well-known that the majority of Suzukl's defensive value is derived from his distracting the batter by coughing or spitting loudly just as the ball is thrown ...

 

LOL Is that like the old trick when the nose tackle barfs on the football just before the center snaps it???

[drjim]

I have a crazy thought - what if the Twins actually take pitch framing statistics seriously?

 

In the past year they have traded Doumit, bounced Pinto to AAA and are not going to overpay Suzuki on an extension. While they did sign Suzuki, he has been one of the few FA Cs that signed last offseason to make it this far with the same team, and by far the best value.

[Willihammer]

I have a crazy thought - what if the Twins actually take pitch framing statistics seriously?

 

In the past year they have traded Doumit, bounced Pinto to AAA and are not going to overpay Suzuki on an extension. While they did sign Suzuki, he has been one of the few FA Cs that signed last offseason to make it this far with the same team, and by far the best value.

 

Not if you believe the run values attributed to pitch framing. Ross (1.9m/rWAR) and Ruiz (3.8m/WAR) are right there with Suzuki (3.5m/rWAR). Even McCann, in his worst season, is still returning at 7.4m/WAR (that will almost certainly improve).

 

If the Twins take pitch framing seriously, they sure do hide it. All we ever hear from the field staff is how great of a defender Suzuki is, but he's on pace to cost the team about 2.5 wins in poor framing. Its his bat buoying his value right now and I don't think anyone saw that coming or expects him to sustain it.

[drjim]

Not if you believe the run values attributed to pitch framing. Ross (1.9m/rWAR) and Ruiz (3.8m/WAR) are right there with Suzuki (3.5m/rWAR). Even McCann, in his worst season, is still returning at 7.4m/WAR (that will almost certainly improve).

 

If the Twins take pitch framing seriously, they sure do hide it. All we ever hear from the field staff is how great of a defender Suzuki is, but he's on pace to cost the team about 2.5 wins in poor framing. Its his bat buoying his value right now and I don't think anyone saw that coming or expects him to sustain it.

 

I don't believe the run values attributed to pitch framing (or defense or base running for the most part). I accept it as a snapshot of current rankings, but I'm not especially convinced on how it is converted into runs, especially in small sample sizes.

 

And when I said the Twins I was more thinking front office than the field staff. I don't really consider anything said by the field staff as that meaningful in the big picture.

[jorgenswest]

The difference between the Twins FIP and ERA is about 1/2 a run. At the team level, that isn't just bad luck as it sometimes attributed to an individual. It is poor defense. For a team with a good defense like the Royals, it goes the other way and the ERA is lower than the FIP.

 

It is so easy to argue the details of the metrics for any individual that it sometimes gets lost that a bad defense leads to extra runs given up.

 

Any effect pitch framing has on runs given up is also independent of defense. Pitch framing will impact strike outs and walks and they are key components of FIP. Poor framing would actually increase the FIP and ERA while poor defense only increases ERA.

 

It might be easy to say that you don't believe in the metric. Is it possible to say you don't believe in defense?

[drjim]

The difference between the Twins FIP and ERA is about 1/2 a run. At the team level, that isn't just bad luck as it sometimes attributed to an individual. It is poor defense. For a team with a good defense like the Royals, it goes the other way and the ERA is lower than the FIP.

 

It is so easy to argue the details of the metrics for any individual that it sometimes gets lost that a bad defense leads to extra runs given up.

 

Any effect pitch framing has on runs given up is also independent of defense. Pitch framing will impact strike outs and walks and they are key components of FIP. Poor framing would actually increase the FIP and ERA while poor defense only increases ERA.

 

It might be easy to say that you don't believe in the metric. Is it possible to say you don't believe in defense?

 

How many innings before fip and era normalize?

[jorgenswest]

How many innings before fip and era normalize?

 

FIP uses HR rate which doesn't stabilize until 1320 BF for an individual. Strike out and walk rates much earlier. For individuals, xFIP is better because it doesn't use HR rate.

 

On the team level, the sample gets large enough that significant differences shouldn't be assigned to chance.

 

Framing data also gets a large sample size since the event is a pitch rather than a plate appearance or inning. Outsiders are getting to see more of what teams have seen for several years. This year BP's data adjusts for count, pitch type, umpire...

 

I don't know how much teams use the data to influence roster decisions. I do know that the catchers previously on the bottom of the list are no longer starting or have moved positions. There are teams that believe this skill has a real impact on the game. For the Twins sake, I hope they are wrong.

[Jim H]

The difference between the Twins FIP and ERA is about 1/2 a run. At the team level, that isn't just bad luck as it sometimes attributed to an individual. It is poor defense. For a team with a good defense like the Royals, it goes the other way and the ERA is lower than the FIP.

 

It is so easy to argue the details of the metrics for any individual that it sometimes gets lost that a bad defense leads to extra runs given up.

 

Any effect pitch framing has on runs given up is also independent of defense. Pitch framing will impact strike outs and walks and they are key components of FIP. Poor framing would actually increase the FIP and ERA while poor defense only increases ERA.

 

It might be easy to say that you don't believe in the metric. Is it possible to say you don't believe in defense?

 

For a counting metric, they sure make it complicated. How about if someone shows us, the actual numbers (i.e. exactly how many strikes each catcher supposedly steals). Then you look at the total games caught. If Molina steals 1 more strike per game than Suzuki, is that significant? How about 2 strikes? What if it is only a half a strike a game? This is part of issue in pitch framing for me. People are telling me it is an important stat. Let me see the raw data, and let me or you decide.

 

And yes there are probably some significant issues with the pitch f/x data. As wonderful as modern technology is, it has to be properly set up, calibrated or whatever the right term would be. I would not be surprised if in some parks pitch f/x squeezes the strike zone, or is overly generous in others. Since the plate is only 16 inches wide, being off even an inch(which the pitch f/x literature admits could be the case) could have a large effect. It would be interesting to see if the number of disagreements between pitch f/x and the umpires varies widely by ballparks.

[Trevor0333]

When the FO is going to leave 20 million in available payroll unused every year what does it matter if you re-sign him to a 2 year 20 mill contract or a 1 year 5 mill deal.

 

Personally I would trade him bring up Pinto and let the year ride out. If Pinto shows he's still not ready to be more than a DH/backup C then go after Suzuki again in the off season.

[jorgenswest]

For a counting metric, they sure make it complicated. How about if someone shows us, the actual numbers (i.e. exactly how many strikes each catcher supposedly steals). Then you look at the total games caught. If Molina steals 1 more strike per game than Suzuki, is that significant? How about 2 strikes? What if it is only a half a strike a game? This is part of issue in pitch framing for me. People are telling me it is an important stat. Let me see the raw data, and let me or you decide.

 

And yes there are probably some significant issues with the pitch f/x data. As wonderful as modern technology is, it has to be properly set up, calibrated or whatever the right term would be. I would not be surprised if in some parks pitch f/x squeezes the strike zone, or is overly generous in others. Since the plate is only 16 inches wide, being off even an inch(which the pitch f/x literature admits could be the case) could have a large effect. It would be interesting to see if the number of disagreements between pitch f/x and the umpires varies widely by ballparks.

 

The teams would certainly have access to any of those details and splits by park. Baseball Prospectus or Baseball Savant may have that detail.

 

I am interested in watching how teams make roster and lineup decisions based on the pitch level data and soon batted ball fielding level data.

 

Teams are in very different places right now with their decisions based on shifting and valuing defense from a catcher. The new data related to fielding should cause further variation in team decision making.

[Jim H]

[QUOTE=jorgenswest;259488]The teams would certainly have access to any of those details and splits by park. Baseball Prospectus or Baseball Savant may have that detail.

 

I am interested in watching how teams make roster and lineup decisions based on the pitch level data and soon batted ball fielding level data.

 

Teams are in very different places right now with their decisions based on shifting and valuing defense from a catcher. The new data related to fielding should cause further variation in team decision making.

 

I would certainly hope teams would have access to and actually look at those details. The stuff we see would be worthless to teams unless they actually take on faith that there is that much impact from pitch framing. This is a huge problem with most of the so-called advanced stats. Since we have no access to the formulas they use for the various FIP's, UZR, or WAR, you have to trust the creator that he is giving the same weight to the various components that you would. Since that is pretty unlikely, I just look at the components.

 

Walk rates, SO rates, and even HR rates can tell you a lot about a pitcher. Whether FIP does, even though it contains those things, is a large question for me. Whether I would understand the formulas they use is another question. But that in itself, is part of the problem. If you don't really understand how it is derived, how can you trust what those numbers are saying.

[DocBauer]

• 
  

 

 

This continues to raise my question about whether you can totally "measure" the effect of the catcher. How much influence did Suzuki have over Kris Johnson last night?

 

Even in losses, how much might the catcher's influence on the pitcher have in keeping the score closer than it might have been?

 

I don't know if everything is measurable. I do know that pitchers seem to have a lot of respect for Suzuki .... I don't think pitchers are totally dumb about their craft so I think there must be something there that they are appreciating.

 

I think this is an excellent point. Forget metrics and stats from whomever and wherever for a moment. A catcher who can hit and provide any real offense, to this day, is still a bit of a luxury. I'm not saying a team is going to be consistently successful building a lineup with Drew Butera as the everyday catcher, you need SOME offensive contributions, but first and foremost a catcher is a take charge player who the staff feels comfortable throwing to. He has to be in sync idea wise and communication wise with the pitcher, the manager and pitching coach as well, to a degree. His first responsibility is that, the second is setting up well, plain old receiving the ball and blocking the plate. Stealing strikes and throwing out runners is nice, but are secondary concerns. It's much like a center in football, hiking the ball effectively, but first, making the line calls to keep the blocking scheme in co-ordination.

[DocBauer]

Pinto and Herrmann can hold it down. Trading Suzuki is an obviously choice.

 

And I don't necessarily disagree with you on this point. I don't think Pinto is as bad defensively as some worry. I think he played pretty well to close out 2013, and didn't seem to play poorly in ST this year. Further, while there have been reports in the past as to needing better footwork, he nonetheless has a strong arm and has done a solid job of throwing out runners in his milb career.

 

I am also on record as being a Herrmann supporter, as I know you are as well. He's garnered positive comments about his play behind the plate in the past, has solid athleticism, well above normal for a catcher, and his track history shows a solid LH bat with contact and gapper power. I think his biggest issue lately has been simply being allowed to play every day instead of being a Twins call up who sits on the bench.

 

Im still in favor of re-signing Suzuki for 2 years at 5-6M per, as has been suggested here. I know/expect his offense to regress, but it's his experience as a quality veteran receiver, still in his early 30's, so no aged veteran, that I'd be banking on. If those numbers don't work, yes, I say trade him for the best value possible.

 

And I also don't buy the idea of trading him and then trying to re-sign him in the off season. Assuming the team he's traded to doesn't sign him, the Twins certainly would have real competition.

[jorgenswest]

Three choices on Suzuki

 

- Offer him a deal he knows he can't get in the winter. Saltalamacchia received 21 million over 3 years. It would need to be in that neighborhood.

 

- Keep him and compete to sign him on a two year deal.

 

- Trade him and compete to sign him in the winter.

 

I think the prudent option is to trade.

[jay]

The stuff we see would be worthless to teams unless they actually take on faith that there is that much impact from pitch framing. This is a huge problem with most of the so-called advanced stats. Since we have no access to the formulas they use for the various FIP's, UZR, or WAR, you have to trust the creator that he is giving the same weight to the various components that you would.

 

This part is not true. The formula of every advanced metric I've ever seen is published. Generally, along with quite the explanation on the formula from the author.

 

Whether I would understand the formulas they use is another question. But that in itself, is part of the problem. If you don't really understand how it is derived, how can you trust what those numbers are saying.

 

On the other hand, this is quite true and valid. Standard counting stats make sense to people, hence why they've stuck around despite their shortfalls. The concept of WAR is pretty easy to understand, so it has caught on fairly well. Helping larger portions of the fan base understand how and when to use advanced stats, along with what they mean, is the gap that sabermetrics needs to cross.

[Willihammer]

Darren WolfsonVerified account ‏@DarrenWolfson

 

Agents looking for Chooch/Salty/AJ type $$. Extension talks are on-going.

 

7:34 PM - 24 Jul 2014

[jay]

Agents looking for Chooch/Salty/AJ type $$. Extension talks are on-going.

 

From MLBTR:

Suzuki’s representatives at MVP Sports are seeking a contract commensurate with the annual values given to free agents Carlos Ruiz (three years, $26MM), Jarrod Saltalamacchia ($21MM over three years), and A.J. Pierzynski (one year, $8.25MM) over the last offseason.

 

Gross.

[nicksaviking]

Come on Twins be smart about this. Don't overpay for a career year, how many times do you have to learn that one?

 

They so rarely hit the free agent jackpot and this year they may have, do the right thing, don't kowtow to Gardy and the pitchers. They may think Suzuki is a godsend and his production will last, but wiser minds know he will almost certainly not be worth the years or the money, likely starting next season.

[TheLeviathan]

If that's the extension price...time to trade.

[Dman]

If that is the price then trade him and overpay for him in FA. That is a win, win. Don't bungle this.

 

Only reason to extend him would be if teams don't want to give up a B level prospect to get him. Then fine extend him at crazy money and years. They have to spend their money somewhere.

[Willihammer]

From Berardino:

 

 

Like Perkins, Twins general manager Terry Ryan downplayed Suzuki's poor ranking in pitch-framing statistics, while saying there is "validity" to such objective measures.

"You have to realize what's the most important thing back there: leadership, running the staff, putting at-bats together and durability," Ryan said. "Believe me, we're plenty happy with Suzuki even though he doesn't rank very high in (pitch framing)."

 

http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_26223739/twins-reliever-glen-perkins-makes-pitch-kurt-suzuki

 

Lot of Perkins love too.

[jorgenswest]

Primarily because Pelfry and Nolasco.

The only pitcher caught exclusively by Suzuki is Nolasco.

[Mike Sixel]

Twins starters have the third worst ERA, 7th worst FIP, and third worst xfip. What evidence is there he handles a staff well? On his previous teams, other catchers had better outcomes than him. I wonder what the twins see we do not.

[TheDean]

Twins starters have the third worst ERA, 7th worst FIP, and third worst xfip. What evidence is there he handles a staff well? On his previous teams, other catchers had better outcomes than him. I wonder what the twins see we do not.

 

Meh, how far could Molina move the needle on these guys? Pelfrey, Darnell, Johnson, Pino, Deduno, Swarzak, KC are all low-ceiling guys at the ML-level. No catcher will ever put them in the middle of MLB pitching categories, ever. Gibson is still figuring things out. Hughes is pitching above career norms.  The only guy there's a case for Suzuki proving that his reputable game calling is actually false is Nolasco because he's so far away from career norms.