Twins Suzuki far apart on extension

[gunnarthor]

Didn't see a thread about this - http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/07/twins-suzuki-far-apart-in-extension-talks.html

 

Hopefully if they don't extend him they trade him. Doesn't really make sense for him to not go to FA after a career year and a weak catching crop of FA.

[DocBauer]

Interesting.

 

I am on record for two things relative here. One is that I believe Suzuki has real value for next season, possibly beyond, even with expected offensive regression. He's a quality C, period. He's a good guy on a team, calls a good game, works well with a staff, and has a good glove behind the plate. Good catchers don't just grow on trees. And having Suzuki on the roster doesn't necessarily block Pinto. Wouldn't he still have trade value next year as well if Pinto begins to take over, or given the opportunity to do so?

 

The second item I'm on record about is pitch framing. I've read some very educated information on the subject to be sure. And I'm not saying there isn't merit to the statistic, though it's still a fairly new one. But there are statistics in all sports than can be skewed. PPG in basketball need to be compared to shot % and numbers of shots taken as an example. And to me, being a quality C isn't about framing, and not even necessarily about throwing %, as that number can be skewed for several reasons as well. Being a quality catcher is about Suzuki's strengths, calling the game, taking control of the game, working with the staff, blocking the plate, and catching the high and wide throws.

 

Now, if Suzuki is looking for a big payday built around a career season, I have a hard time with that. I don't blame him, but there has to be reasonable parameters in place in regard to his value, career norms, and a best season. Without a fair figure in mind, years and dollars, then I'm in favor or the best trade value possible.

 

But don't forget, no matter Pinto's potential and our hopes for him, the potential of Herrmann overall, and some nice talent in the lower minors, we need someone behind the plate to work with our staff, including youngsters like May and Meyer, and it appears the FA market next year may be dry.

[Mr. Brooks]

I keep hearing about how Suzuki is so good at calling a game and handling the pitching staff.

 

If that is the case, why do the Twins have the worst starting pitching in the AL, and the 2nd worst in MLB, 2nd only to the thin air inflated Rockies staff?

[jorgenswest]

Because our pitchers are bad (kc, pelfrey, deduno, others). The catcher can polish a turd...but it is still a turd #signsuzuki #ttwoyeardeal #6milayear

 

Why would he take that deal in season?

 

Trade him to Cardinals or Orioles and try to sign him in the winter.

[Monkeypaws]

It works both ways folks - to think Suzuki will take a bogus offer at this point, mmmm, ain't gonna happen. TR should be sleepin with the cell at this point.

[kab21]

Ok, then I presume you weren't one of the posters suggesting coming into the season that our pitching staff would be improved this year, I take it?

 

Because we can't have it both ways. We can't look at them on paper and say they should be better, but then resolve Suzuki of any blame when it turns out they are not.

 

Are you honestly blaming Suzuki for Nolasco's disaster, KC's normalness, Deduno's ineffectiveness or Pelfrey's complete ineffectiveness?

 

I think it's silly that this site seems to blame the pitching coach and the catcher more for sucky pitching than the pitcher himself. there are certainly better catchers out there but things could be MUCH, MUCH worse than Suzuki offensively and defensively.

[twinsfan34]

I'm kinda relieve they're far apart - as the Twins aren't going in with the one-year wonder that is this year in Suzuki. I don't think anything more than 2 years would be beneficial for the Twins.

 

Pinto lacks confidence more than ability. And he played sparingly, so likely set him up to dwell on a few mistakes versus work it out. Offensively, we can't expect even a .265 season next year out of Suzuki, being realistic about it. Possible, but not likely. Pinto would likely offer just as much offensive value (HR, BB's while hitting .240) and if there's 'defensive metrics' that are meaningful...Suzuki is the "Worst" defensive catcher in MLB among starters. Turner, our defensive catcher, is hitting .240-ish at A+. Garver is hitting well at A, but not sure on his defense. If Suzuki doesn't find 2 years for 7/8 worthwhile...well honestly, I hope they trade him - and perhaps, let the FA market work itself out in the Fall...and if they find the value to be worth the $$...offer him that deal then.

 

I'm kinda excited to see what he could bring in return with the 'coupe' we got for Drew Butera last year. Would think if Butera brought in a 19 year old dominating A type of prospect with some potential, couldn't Suzuki bring in a AA/AAA player who's doing well...?

[Badsmerf]

He has all the leverage right now on the twins. Somebody is going to over pay for him this off-season when teams are bidding against each other. Twins best bet is to trade him and get the best offer possible.

 

I think the twins window for extending him passed in June. It's too late now, but that doesn't mean he can't be flipped for a nice prospect.

[kab21]

Butera didn't bring in a dominating A type of prospect with potential. He brought in a non-dominant RP'ing prospect (SP'er for now) that doesn't project as an MLB'er. One that was later traded for a mediocre utility IF'er. it was a coup for the Twins but neither Sulbaran or Nunez are anything to brag about.

[drock2190]

Good. Make him available and if there is a good offer, trade him. He likely wont be part of the next playoff team so might as well get something useful.

 

Besides, I wouldnt mind picking up another catcher in the offseason that comes fairly cheap. Russel Martin comes to mind.

[Twins Twerp]

Ok, then I presume you weren't one of the posters suggesting coming into the season that our pitching staff would be improved this year, I take it?

 

Because we can't have it both ways. We can't look at them on paper and say they should be better, but then resolve Suzuki of any blame when it turns out they are not.

The pitching still sux but the picture is much more pleasant than last summer. Nolasco, words cant explain the disappointment. But Hughes has been great and will be a great top to mid rotation guy for next two years; Gibson has shown signs and will also slot in for years to come. Kc has been what we thought he would and probably more. We will see what Nolasco does at end of season because I feel he can still contribute (i mean there are 3 seasons and 36 million reasons why i feel that).

 

The season may be lost but I think the rotation has "felt" better than last year. Now if you want to pull out some babip bs or era+minus than do it. I feel more confident about pitching future.

[DaveW]

Glad to hear they are at least "Talking" I would be more than happy with 2/12 or so, and if they have to give him 3 years to keep him around I wouldn't be too upset since the total dollars wouldn't be insane.

 

I agree with Kab, I don't think its a given he is going to net some stud in return, if the offer isn't up to snuff I wouldn't mind that they just keep him, keep trying to sign him and then possibly lose him at the end of the year. The Twins have a super deep system, losing out on a low upside type prospect who would slot into the 20-30 range in this org wouldn't be the end of the world.

 

One other thing that should be brought up/thought about:

Pitch framing stats etc etc aside, I think we can all agree Suzuki is a solid "veteran" behind the dish who knows what he is doing and calls a "good" game. With May/Meyer on the cusp of coming up, it may be a nice thing for the Twins to have a legit veteran behind the dish instead of oh say.... Pinto or Fryer etc. when they come up.

[raindog]

For the love of God, trade him. He's the best trade chip they have.

[nicksaviking]

I think it's silly that this site seems to blame the pitching coach and the catcher more for sucky pitching than the pitcher himself. there are certainly better catchers out there but things could be MUCH, MUCH worse than Suzuki offensively and defensively.

 

I think the majority of the time people blame the person responsible for putting these pitchers on the roster.

 

Well, of course and Anderson.

[Shane Wahl]

It is beyond my comprehension how anything other than a trade happens. There is no other reasonable way to go about this. Suzuki could bring in a Travis Harrison or Max Kepler or Stephen Gonsalves kind of prospect.

[70charger]

I think it's silly that this site seems to blame the pitching coach and the catcher more for sucky pitching than the pitcher himself.

 

But this is only when the thread is about the pitching coach or the catcher...

[howeda7]

If he can truly bring a Max Kepler level prospect, you trade him regardless. If he can't, offer him 2/$10 million. If that's not enough, trade him regardless.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't blame Suzuki for wanting to cash in, but if that's the case - move him. This deadline needs to stop being about the quality of the return and time to just dump some soon-to-be dead weight.

[howeda7]

When he says: "Hell No!" Then what? A combonation of: Pinto, Fryar, and Herrmann? Yikes, none are ML level. Sign AJ? Hoo Boy. At least the clubhouse will be entertaining. Sadly we fans don't get to observe. Or, sign some over-the-hill veteran bench catcher (for cheap--natch!)? Sort of like a repeat of the Drew Butera year. IDK how much pohlad money goes in a blackhole. I'm not interested in supporting a minor league team anymore.

 

I don't really care about the money. But Suzuki is playing way over his head offensively and isn't all he's made out to be defensively. And Pinto's not nearly as far away as he's portrayed, IMO. So yes, trade him. Pinto supported by Fyer/Hermann can make it through the rest of 2014. Then sign a veteran to back-up Pinto just like was done last year.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I'm happy for Suzuki and he's been fun to watch, but it's time we give him a chance to play for a contender and trade him asap, get something good for him.

 

Pinto and Herrmann are not young and we don't honestly know yet if they can be full time players. Will they even have options after this year?

[Shane Wahl]

Pinto and Herrmann can hold it down. Trading Suzuki is an obviously choice.

[glunn]

Moderator note -- this thread is being watched very closely.

 

Let's keep it lively but abstain from bickering, ranting and personal attacks.

[zchrz]

They really should trade him, sell high for once especially if he is seeking big bucks or more than 2 years. He was a good signing who has provided far beyond what was expected of him and there is no loser in the Twins and Suzuki himself cashing in on that.

 

I'm not saying give him away, but I think they missed a big chance to sell high on Willingham. Cashing in on older journeymen who are having good seasons is a pretty solid practice for a rebuilding team.

 

Suzuki has a rep for being a great defensive catcher and while he certainly isn't a bad one, he really isn't a game changer in a good way. He is super quick and agile behind the plate and makes some ridiculous blocks and grabs, but half those flashy stops come with no one on base. He is a pretty major negative in the base running game with a weak to low average arm (just once I want to see a twins catcher that can throw behind people!). Pitch framing seems to be gaining ground as a useful metric, though it certainly still needs refinement, and Suzuki rates pretty poorly in it with a decent date size.

 

I get that there is a pretty big gap between having Suzuki and having a prospect like Turner be ready to take a mlb starting job but bridging that gap is easier for a rebuilding team who doesn't need optimal catcher performance.

 

He should net a decent prospect that could contribute to the future Twins teams that will benefit from a time when the team was weak and had assets to sell.

[Mike Sixel]

The defensive stats are clear, he is a bad catcher. The worst pitch framer, or close. No one is blaming the catcher for the bad pitching. We are wondering what the evidence is that he handles the staff well. Since there is none when looking at outcomes produced.

[JB_Iowa]

The defensive stats are clear, he is a bad catcher. The worst pitch framer, or close. No one is blaming the catcher for the bad pitching. We are wondering what the evidence is that he handles the staff well. Since there is none when looking at outcomes produced.

 

 

 

• Mike Berardino ‏@MikeBerardino 12h
  Kurt Suzuki has made at least 3 visits to calm down Kris Johnson -- and we're only in top 4. Pitch Framing Mob never considers that part.
   
   
  

 

 

This continues to raise my question about whether you can totally "measure" the effect of the catcher. How much influence did Suzuki have over Kris Johnson last night?

 

Even in losses, how much might the catcher's influence on the pitcher have in keeping the score closer than it might have been?

 

I don't know if everything is measurable. I do know that pitchers seem to have a lot of respect for Suzuki .... I don't think pitchers are totally dumb about their craft so I think there must be something there that they are appreciating.

 

All that being said, I'm still in favor of trading Suzuki since it seems an extension won't get done. The last thing I want to see is another wasted trade deadline.

[bird]

I keep hearing about how Suzuki is so good at calling a game and handling the pitching staff.

 

If that is the case, why do the Twins have the worst starting pitching in the AL, and the 2nd worst in MLB, 2nd only to the thin air inflated Rockies staff?

 

Primarily because Pelfry and Nolasco.

[iTwins]

I was never in favor of the idea of extending Suzuki. I feel like the Twins hit the lottery and got a career year from an otherwise average catcher. Extending him seems like the Twins would be paying for his regression - and paying a premium at that. After all, Suzuki's value has never been higher. I can see why others want to keep him, but I'd prefer the Twins go the other way.

 

Once you factor that at least two contending teams (Baltimore and St. Louis) are looking for catching depth and the Twins have one of the few players at that position that could realistically be moved, I feel like the decision becomes even easier. Especially given the fact that Suzuki seems determined to test the free agent market (which is a smart move on his part, BTW).

 

The Twins have an asset in demand, in what should be a relatively sparse market. I hope the Twins sell high on Suzuki and add much needed depth to the team. Letting him walk at the end of the year would be a terrible blow.

[bird]

Good. Make him available and if there is a good offer, trade him. He likely wont be part of the next playoff team so might as well get something useful.

 

Besides, I wouldnt mind picking up another catcher in the offseason that comes fairly cheap. Russel Martin comes to mind.

 

Agreed, and the trade market this winter should be OK.

[Willihammer]

• Mike Berardino ‏@MikeBerardino 12h
  Kurt Suzuki has made at least 3 visits to calm down Kris Johnson -- and we're only in top 4. Pitch Framing Mob never considers that part.
  

 

 

This continues to raise my question about whether you can totally "measure" the effect of the catcher. How much influence did Suzuki have over Kris Johnson last night?

 

Even in losses, how much might the catcher's influence on the pitcher have in keeping the score closer than it might have been?

 

I don't know if everything is measurable. I do know that pitchers seem to have a lot of respect for Suzuki .... I don't think pitchers are totally dumb about their craft so I think there must be something there that they are appreciating.

 

Some things are measurable, eg. strikeouts, walks, strikes above/below average, blocking runs above average, caught stealing, catcher ERA, etc.

 

The only way Suzuki looks good defensively is is if you mystify the job he does back there.

[Tcrose3636]

I have a really hard time thinking about trading Suzuki and not extending him on a 3yr/$7m deal like Salty got last year. The Twins have and will have flexibility with payroll when all of the young prospect come up playing on the cheap.

 

If all signs that people within the organization say about how he handles the pitching staff, I think it might possibly stunt the growth of young pitchers that are going to pitch in the majors.

 

But if he isn't willing to take that kind of deal that I mentioned above before the deadline, then I think he kind of forces your hand to move him for something.