Astros mess

[drjim]

  biggentleben said:

I do not agree with this take. Correia, even with the injury, was ranked the #2 prospect in all of baseball by John Sickels (ahead of Buxton). Before his injury, there was a lot of rumble about Correia as the #1 prospect in the entire game. So, the 2012 draft is a widely considered success in the game, their 2013 draft has not gone as planned at the top, but that is completely a hindsight criticism as Appel was considered the odds-on #1 throughout the game. This season is a fiasco, certainly, but judging any draft class before 5+ years from the time of the draft is shortsighted, and there's really not a class before this one that was mismanaged by Luhnow. This year may have burned up a lot of currency with advisers for the players, however, and that aspect of pre-draft discussion (and post-draft negotiating) may need to be done by another member of the front office going forward.

 

As I said - 2012 was a good draft. And Sickels ranks Correa higher, but BA, Law, mlb do not agree. I'll stay with the majority and say they whiffed on the top player. But it was a good draft, Correa is legit, and they got two other highly regarded guys too.

 

2013 was a bad draft. Appel still might turn it around but he is a college senior getting lit up in High A while the guy drafted right after him has exploded and the #3 pick is right on target. You can't sugar coat that. And Appel was absolutely not a consensus #1 guy at draft time so it is not just hindsight criticism.

 

2014 stands on its own merit so far.

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, drjim is right. Their moves have been a bit puzzling, to say the least. They tanked on the promise of the future and they basically traded this years 1-1 and a fifth round pick for next years 1-2. That's a horrible exchange. Lunhow hasn't made any earth shattering trades - he did a good job getting Lowrie from Boston but didn't get much in return when they flipped him a year later. They moved a young 23 yr old pitcher to the Rockies for Dexter Fowler. Value-wise it's probably a push but Fowler will probably be too old to be a part of the future team whereas the young pitcher (Jordan Lyles) would be in his prime in a few years. Not really a strong move. And a lot of the pitchers they've acquired - either in trades or drafts - have been pretty bad in the minor leagues.

 

And of course this year they tried to strongarm Springer into signing a team friendly extension, he refused and he was sent back to the minors. Their ridiculous trade proposals (Bud Norris for Dylan Bundy) became public and now the Aiken/Nix fiasco. Individually, every move they made can probably be defended but as a whole, it's really bad.

[biggentleben]

  USAFChief said:

Right...but all of that is related to college eligibility, right?

 

How is MLB or the MLBPA responsible for that?

 

They can put in a rule to require a declaration before the draft that would then protect those players.

[biggentleben]

  drjim said:

As I said - 2012 was a good draft. And Sickels ranks Correa higher, but BA, Law, mlb do not agree. I'll stay with the majority and say they whiffed on the top player. But it was a good draft, Correa is legit, and they got two other highly regarded guys too.

 

2013 was a bad draft. Appel still might turn it around but he is a college senior getting lit up in High A while the guy drafted right after him has exploded and the #3 pick is right on target. You can't sugar coat that. And Appel was absolutely not a consensus #1 guy at draft time so it is not just hindsight criticism.

 

2014 stands on its own merit so far.

 

We'll agree to disagree. Without Correa, there wouldn't have been McCullers or Ruiz. The whole package of that draft to get a legit top 5 prospect in all of the game two years out along with two legit top 100 prospects in the first three picks is elite as far as a draft goes two years out.

 

2013 has been rough at 1-1 obviously, and his pick fit their strategy in 2013 - high floor. The Astros wanted a pitcher, and they chose floor over upside with Gray vs. Appel. They found Jordan Mills after the 20th round, and he's been receiving rave reviews thus far. Conrad Gregor has moved through two levels this year, and he'll likely be at AA by the end of the year the way he's ripping up high-A. Tony Kemp has already jumped to AA. Devonte German has taken a major step forward, though the numbers aren't showing it yet. Their 2013 picks aren't guys who will leap up prospect lists because they're really not huge upside guys, but every one of their early guys has made progress in 2014.

[gunnarthor]

  biggentleben said:

We'll agree to disagree. Without Correa, there wouldn't have been McCullers or Ruiz. The whole package of that draft to get a legit top 5 prospect in all of the game two years out along with two legit top 100 prospects in the first three picks is elite as far as a draft goes two years out.

.

 

Two problems with that. They could have gotten Buxton and McCullers (but not Ruiz) and McCullers and Ruiz are not nec top 100 guys. McCullers was last year although he's struggled some this year and people are starting to think he's a bullpen arm long term. Ruiz might get ranked next year but hasn't been prior.

 

The Twins draft - Buxton and Berrios - was easily superior without going cheap or gaming the system.

[biggentleben]

  gunnarthor said:

Two problems with that. They could have gotten Buxton and McCullers (but not Ruiz) and McCullers and Ruiz are not nec top 100 guys. McCullers was last year although he's struggled some this year and people are starting to think he's a bullpen arm long term. Ruiz might get ranked next year but hasn't been prior.

 

The Twins draft - Buxton and Berrios - was easily superior without going cheap or gaming the system.

 

Once again, that's two years out. Let's revisit these emboldened statements in 4-7 years when we can see more clearly the fruits of the draft.

[Guest USAFChief]

  biggentleben said:

They can put in a rule to require a declaration before the draft that would then protect those players.

That would mean anyone who does loses NCAA eligibility, right? And with it, most of their leverage? How does that benefit college or, especially, HS players?

[TheLeviathan]

  gunnarthor said:

Individually, every move they made can probably be defended but as a whole, it's really bad.

 

This is a debacle that deserves criticism, but we're still talking about an organization that ranked in the top 5 for their farm by just about everybody. Someone from Houston prone to defending their club against all comers would probably take a tone you're familiar with to this post.

 

The bigger test of this organization (much like the Twins) will be how much of this talent graduates into impact roles. But this entire post seems like an effort to tear down someone else to prop someone else up.

 

Every team has their blunders and successes. (Even acknowledging this was a major blunder)

[drjim]

  TheLeviathan said:

This is a debacle that deserves criticism, but we're still talking about an organization that ranked in the top 5 for their farm by just about everybody. Someone from Houston prone to defending their club against all comers would probably take a tone you're familiar with to this post.

 

The bigger test of this organization (much like the Twins) will be how much of this talent graduates into impact roles. But this entire post seems like an effort to tear down someone else to prop someone else up.

 

Every team has their blunders and successes. (Even acknowledging this was a major blunder)

 

This is an historic blunder. There hasn't been a 1-1 that failed to sign since 1983. And it was so preventable.

[TheLeviathan]

  drjim said:

This is an historic blunder. There hasn't been a 1-1 that failed to sign since 1983. And it was so preventable.

 

I totally agree - this was a profoundly stupid incident.

[gunnarthor]

  TheLeviathan said:

But this entire post seems like an effort to tear down someone else to prop someone else up.

 

Every team has their blunders and successes. (Even acknowledging this was a major blunder)

The post was in the "more baseball" thread to discuss an org reneging on a promise to the 1-1 pick and the potential of the union getting involved into filing grievances on the players behalf. A pretty big deal. It naturally led to other Astros gafts (they've had a bad year). Seems like a perfectly fine topic to discuss. I don't think anyone (except you) has tried to make comparisons to the Twins or attempted to derail the thread into a Twins FO v Astros FO. If you want to defend the Astros, go ahead. If you want to debate the Twins FO vs. Astros FO, start another thread. If you don't want to participate in this thread, that's ok too. But don't assume bad motives on the people participating in the thread.

[Blackjack]

"Houston will get the No. 2 pick next June in compensation for failing to sign Aiken."

 

Will Houston also get another pick in the first round in line with where their record for this year??

[drjim]

  Blackjack said:

"Houston will get the No. 2 pick next June in compensation for failing to sign Aiken."

 

Will Houston also get another pick in the first round in line with where their record for this year??

 

Yes. If they have the worst record this year, they would have the top two picks.

[nicksaviking]

  biggentleben said:

They can put in a rule to require a declaration before the draft that would then protect those players.

 

I'd think that would do the opposite. Being able to say you're going to college is the best leverage these players have. Also, if MLB required a decleration, they could then require further procedures, like telling those that declare they must have (and pay for) medical screenings and provide the results. Results which the teams would use against the player during negotiations.

[nicksaviking]

  drjim said:

This is an historic blunder. There hasn't been a 1-1 that failed to sign since 1983. And it was so preventable.

 

Yeah, what kind of incompetent organization would fail to sign a top 1 or even top 2 pick?

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/belchti01.shtml

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=lee---001tra

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

<sad trombone>

[twinsfan34]

Tim Belcher AND Travis Lee... (sighs)

[drjim]

Belcher was before my time but that Travis Lee situation was a sad affair. Boras really screwed the Twins.

 

It did result in a rule change. Maybe this Aiken situation will do the same.

[nicksaviking]

  drjim said:

Belcher was before my time but that Travis Lee situation was a sad affair. Boras really screwed the Twins.

 

He did screw the Twins, which may be a reason the team didn't really deal with him again for about 12 years.

 

Still, it was a provision in the CBA and if the client was aware of it, the front office should have been aware of it as well. They should have been dotting their i's and crossing their t's particularly since the club KNEW Boras and Lee didn't want to play for the Twins in the first place.

[biggentleben]

  USAFChief said:

That would mean anyone who does loses NCAA eligibility, right? And with it, most of their leverage? How does that benefit college or, especially, HS players?

 

Those players are then allowed representation before the draft so anything that does happen with them is covered by an agent and the union. For years and years before putting in the rule about declaring, the NBA allowed players to not sign with an agent before the draft and choose to go back to school if they went undrafted, but baseball's draft is so large that this would likely never happen. There are some major benefits for teams in that they know a guy wants to go to the majors, not play with someone for more money to "buy them away" from college. This issue with the contracts and the Astros would have someone to represent the players rather than them really having no recourse whatsoever because they're not represented by agents or the union.

[biggentleben]

  nicksaviking said:

I'd think that would do the opposite. Being able to say you're going to college is the best leverage these players have. Also, if MLB required a decleration, they could then require further procedures, like telling those that declare they must have (and pay for) medical screenings and provide the results. Results which the teams would use against the player during negotiations.

 

The medical part is actually one of the best arguments FOR declaration. The NFL and NBA combines are paid for by teams for players who have declared for the draft, and any medical testing that an individual team wants to do for a player is paid for by that team (for a player who wasn't invited to the NFL combine, for instance). MLB would be able to put together a medical combine completely paid for by teams with a declaration. Until that point, any medical combine would constitute a violation of amateurism if paid for by MLB or an individual team.

[ScottyB]

  nicksaviking said:

He did screw the Twins, which may be a reason the team didn't really deal with him again for about 12 years.

 

Still, it was a provision in the CBA and if the client was aware of it, the front office should have been aware of it as well. They should have been dotting their i's and crossing their t's particularly since the club KNEW Boras and Lee didn't want to play for the Twins in the first place.

 

 

Much as I hate Scott Boras (and that's not me I might point out even though I AM ScottyB), we can't blame this on him. Lee's agent was Jeff Moorad.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leetr01.shtml

[kab21]

  nicksaviking said:

Yeah, what kind of incompetent organization would fail to sign a top 1 or even top 2 pick?

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/belchti01.shtml

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=lee---001tra

 

And the Twins should be regarded as incompetent for not knowing the rules in the Travis Lee situation just as the Astros are in this situation. The difference is that the Twins were being nice and were allowing Lee to wrap up whatever summer competition (Olympics I think) he had going on before starting contract negotiations. Unfortunately Lee's agent used a loophole to screw the Twins. The Astros on the other hand were just trying to screw over the player.

 

The MLB has wanted hard slotting for a long time and it's this kind of situation that could bring the MLBPA on board. Once that happens HS players don't have any leverage other than saying don't draft me if it isn't in the top X picks since there isn't any real negotiating to be done as far as contract value. This also greatly reduces the need of an agent before the contract is signed.

[DaveW]

  ScottyB said:

Much as I hate Scott Boras (and that's not me I might point out even though I AM ScottyB), we can't blame this on him. Lee's agent was Jeff Moorad.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leetr01.shtml

 

I have never understood the hate towards Boras, but that is a discussion for another day I suppose.

[drjim]

  ScottyB said:

Much as I hate Scott Boras (and that's not me I might point out even though I AM ScottyB), we can't blame this on him. Lee's agent was Jeff Moorad.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leetr01.shtml

 

Thanks for pointing that out. Here a link I found to the story. Boras was an agent for one of the three that became a free agent, as usual he was probably the most vocal in the media which is why I remembered as I did.

 

http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=2519&dat=19960925&id=bYJeAAAAIBAJ&sjid=_mENAAAAIBAJ&pg=2686,3096008

[Thegrin]

Thank God this is an Astros mess and not a Twins mess.

[JB_Iowa]

For anyone still interested in this debacle, there's a really good analysis here:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=24223#commentMessage

[twinsfan34]

  JB_Iowa said:

For anyone still interested in this debacle, there's a really good analysis here:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=24223#commentMessage

 

Good share.

 

"Failure to sign the top talent in the draft class over $1.5 million? Check. Lose the ability to sign your second or third most valuable draft asset (measured by bonus amount)? Check. Draw the ire of one of the most successful agents in the game as well as the further scorn of the MLBPA? Check. Leave open the possibility that the commissioner’s office will force you to honor an agreement with your fifth rounder that will effectively cost you seven figures in draft tax and the loss of your next two first rounders? Check."

[twinsfan34]

Trying to find similar precedents. The closest case would be the curious case of Benjamin Button, er Travis Lee. And I don't reference this as a jaded Twins fan. It's just the most comparable case. Albeit, this was on the client/agents/player's side of things. As best we know the agent requested the Twins not begin negotiations (btw, isn't that beginning negotiation?) with Lee until after the Olympics. The Twins should have covered their butts, one way or another - I can't believe they didn't know the rules.

 

The college part of this equation is tricky. What if they (Aiken and Nix) aren't allowed to enroll at UCLA or JUCO? Does baseball then, rid itself of a precedent, but rather, in effort to protect those wishing to play MLB respond in a way (perhaps why they're waiting) that would be protecting the interests of the players (Aiken and Nix...and Marshall(?)...)

 

The crazy part is the $3.5M to $5M (already a big discount from his slot of $7.9M)...why would the #1 overall pick take a discount - well, so he could be the #1 overall selection as the #2 guy was slotted for $6.8M. So Aiken's camp likely decided, why not go #1 and get the equivalent of #2 money...instead of going #2 and getting #2 money (or less). He may have gone #3 as well - no doubt team Aiken had talked to the top 3-5 teams as that's where he would fall.

 

The Astros have clearly been not honoring MLB, they're clearly tanking, they're clearly not trying to be competitive (payroll several standard deviations below the average) and they're clearly being cheap here despite making $$ and being in one of the largest markets in the US.

 

Whether you go here or Forbes, the Astros made between $186M and $196M last year.

 

The case of $1.5M should be season as an investment in Nix...even if they "lose" $6.5M and Aiken doesn't throw a pitch in MLB. It's a risk you take in MLB, otherwise, put it in a Vanguard ETF or a coffee can or whatever. There's always some risk.

 

But they haven't acted in good faith of the game by competition standards or by revenue standards. And unless MLB wants to see more of the same down the road, they need to make Houston an example. You can't tank on purpose (psuedo salary cap) and you can't play the draft (may lead to allowing trades for those willing to take the risk). The Astros have been cheap all the way through (add the Springer contract scenario too!) and it started with hurting the fan base (MLB revenue) by tanking the past few years to not being competitive when needed to this Draft. And for that reason, I believe MLB needs to drop the hammer. If they take away their 1st RD pick(s) it will stop them from the incentive of tanking for the season and foreseeable future. Can't enforce the salary/cheapness, but can take away the incentive to tank.

[James]

  JB_Iowa said:

For anyone still interested in this debacle, there's a really good analysis here:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=24223#commentMessage

This was a great article and a great share.

 

This situation would probably make a great case study for a negotiations class (probably a more advanced one). But it was an interesting situation and this article does a great job of breaking down the situation of both the players involved and the Astros.