Trade opportunities -players dropping like flies

[TKGuy]

While I never want to see any player get hurt, the Twins could be beneficiaries as far as trades go. With Molina out for 2 months, the Cards will need a catcher. Suzuki's contract is perfect for the Cards. I don't see the Cards biting on Pierzynski, but maybe the Orioles will with Wieters out.

 

Also starters are going on the DL. Tanaka, CJ Wilson, Michael Wacha and Jaime Garcia and Josh Beckett are out. Ignoring Correia's first month, he has been decent and could be a cheap fix for someone.

 

With Jay Bruce moving to first, the Reds need an OF bat, the same with the Yankees with Beltran out, Jays with Bautista having to play first just to name a few. We all know watching the Twins hold the M's to three runs in three games that the M's could use Willingham or perhaps Morales to DH for Corey Hart.

 

Finally, besides Perk, we should dangle all of our relievers out there because we have lots in AAA, such as Achter, Tonkin, etc to replace them

Be aggressive, if we can get a contributor for the next year or two, don't be afraid to pull the trigger.

 

Win the game tonight and put some desperation in the M's.

[TKGuy]

I missed the appendectomy for Jason Vargas, so there's another suitor

[Bark's Lounge]

I'd hate to see Suzuki go, but I think St. Louis would be a great fit. I cannot envision the Cards using Tony Cruz as 2 month stop gap.

 

Not sure what the Twins could get in return, but you would think there should be some serious interest from our brothers down the great river.

[jorgenswest]

I think Correia would have to be a end of July deal. I think teams would pursue a better solution and settle for Correia at the end. I hope I am wrong and he is dealt early.

 

They need to be ready to move Suzuki at the first good deal.

[Brock Beauchamp]

With high profile catchers dropping like flies, it'll be hard to resist not putting Suzuki on the block in late July.

[TheLeviathan]

With high profile catchers dropping like flies, it'll be hard to resist not putting Suzuki on the block in late July.

 

Put him up now, just make sure to wait until the iron is hot.

[Kelly Vance]

Don't trade a 300 hitting catcher when you have next to nothing else at the position. No way this happens. Suzuki should be given an extension, not firesaled for some maybe prospects

[stringer bell]

Suzuki doesn't profile as that good a hitter. His value is at an all-time high.

[beckmt]

Suzuki, Perkins and Dozier, along with Willingham, Morales, Correria, and most of the rest of the relievers should all be on the block. Let's make a deal. TR's strength is identifying class A ballplayers that have a future, put it to use.

[SwainZag]

Suzuki, Perkins and Dozier, along with Willingham, Morales, Correria, and most of the rest of the relievers should all be on the block. Let's make a deal. TR's strength is identifying class A ballplayers that have a future, put it to use.

 

Why does Dozier keep coming up in these discussions? 27 year old All-Star at a very shallow position still under team control. These are the type of players you build around, not trade away.

 

Susuki on the other hand...31 year old on a 1 year deal who is performing over his all time highs. These are the type of players you trade.

[The Wise One]

The GM of a winning team generally has a decent talent evaluator or two. Any expiring contract player on the Twins right now would likely only bring back a low level prospect. Closer to career average production from Morales might bring a better prospect. Those that think Suzuki will bring back a good prospect need to look and see that he was traded twice for middling prospects. The relievers are all better than a lot of what are in other bullpens. Still, the supply of 7th inning and mop up relievers is large, hence the cost would be low None of the Twins in the last year of a contract say 8th inning reliever in a pennant chase

[ScottyB]

To those who keep pointing to trading Dozier - yes he's playing outstanding defense and hitting for power, but most GM's will point to his .234 average and team-leading 78 strikeouts to try to downplay his value and give less in return.

 

I know many of us would like to see Rosario up, but he's only batting .238 avg/.284 OPB/.349 SLG. Let's put that into perspective - Hicks' slash line since being sent back to NB is .284/.410/.403 and most of us feel he's not ready. Rosario is not ready to take over for Dozier. Escobar is in a slump at SS and if Santana goes back to CF, what's our middle infield going forward. For those who say Dozier's at his peak, I disagree. When he learns to use the whole field as a batter, and he will in the next couple of years, that's when he'll be at his peak and maybe by then Rosario will be ready to take over (or Polanco or one of our other MI'ers).

[AlwaysinModeration]

Suzuki doesn't profile as that good a hitter. His value is at an all-time high.

 

But....maybe these 3 months are more predictive than the rest of his track record!

[TKGuy]

I wouldn't deal Dozier unless we were absolutely blown away. I think we can resign Suzuki if we wanted to in the offseason.

[Brock Beauchamp]

What is wrong with you people? You don't trade a 300 hitting catcher when you have next to nothing else at the position. No way this happens. Suzuki should be given an extension, not firesaled for some maybe prospects

 

Sign him in the offseason. Right now, his value is through the roof.

 

I understand why the Twins might be reluctant to move him but man, teams are going to seriously overpay for a 112 OPS+ catcher right now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

To those who keep pointing to trading Dozier - yes he's playing outstanding defense and hitting for power, but most GM's will point to his .234 average and team-leading 78 strikeouts to try to downplay his value and give less in return.

 

No GM with a brain would underbid for Dozier because of those stats. Would they hem and haw over those stats to reduce their perceived interest? Certainly, that's good bargaining.

 

But at the end of the day, Dozier will command a top 25 prospect and they all know it.

 

Again, not advocating that the Twins trade Dozier.

[sorney]

But....maybe these 3 months are more predictive than the rest of his track record!

 

I think that gets you in trouble....rarely do 31 year old catcher suddenly become much better hitters than they have in the past.

[nicksaviking]

Sign him in the offseason. Right now, his value is through the roof.

 

I understand why the Twins might be reluctant to move him but man, teams are going to seriously overpay for a 112 OPS+ catcher right now.

 

Yes, if Suzuki likes it here he'll listen to the Twins offseason offer. If he doesn't like it here, he's not going to bite on a midseason extension anyway. I like Suzuki and would take him back next year, but considering he's having his best season at 31, the odds are that whoever does get him next year will be in for a pretty big let down. There's a reason he was a platoon player the last couple years.

 

Also, if it happened to be the Cardinals who came after him, no one has to worry about him falling in love with St. Louis, they'll have no interest in a contract with him in 2015. Unless Yadier Molina gets hit by a bus in the offseason.

[tobi0040]

No GM with a brain would underbid for Dozier because of those stats. Would they hem and haw over those stats to reduce their perceived interest? Certainly, that's good bargaining.

 

But at the end of the day, Dozier will command a top 25 prospect and they all know it.

 

Again, not advocating that the Twins trade Dozier.

 

Maybe it is just me, but it would take more than just one prospect rated 25th. That is in the Berrios/Stewart range. With Dozier, I think we are starting to know what we can expect. Very good defense, 20-20+ potential, a guy that gets on base, etc that plays a scarce position. Many prospects in that range may simply "project" as having a simlar trajectory as Dozier and frankly, a good chunk of them won't hit that projection. Some may never stick in the big leagues and some may end up being bench players.

[tobi0040]

Sign him in the offseason. Right now, his value is through the roof.

 

I understand why the Twins might be reluctant to move him but man, teams are going to seriously overpay for a 112 OPS+ catcher right now.

 

Agreed. I was very much on the re-sign Suzuki bandwagon. But Terry has been very savvy in the last few years. The timing and return on the Span and Revere trades come to mind. I think the catcher injuries and lack of depth among playoff teams may yeild a Suzuki trade that we may be happy with.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Maybe it is just me, but it would take more than just one prospect rated 25th. That is in the Berrios/Stewart range. With Dozier, I think we are starting to know what we can expect. Very good defense, 20-20+ potential, a guy that gets on base, etc that plays a scarce position. Many prospects in that range may simply "project" as having a simlar trajectory as Dozier and frankly, a good chunk of them won't hit that projection. Some may never stick in the big leagues and some may end up being bench players.

 

Yeah, as I said in another thread, it all depends on the player. "Top 25" is basically code for "elite prospect". If it's near the bottom of that scale, it will require another guy with upside.

 

For example, I'd trade Dozier straight-up for a non-injured Sano (and obviously Buxton). I wouldn't trade Dozier straight-up for Alex Meyer or Kohl Stewart.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I like Suzuki and would take him back next year, but considering he's having his best season at 31, the odds are that whoever does get him next year will be in for a pretty big let down.

 

Yup. And we have Pinto in the wings, who may not be ready to be the 2015 primary starter yet, but he's worth a greater investment of playing time. It's not like we'd be starting Fryer or Herrmann in Sukuzi's place.

 

Plus, none of our other popular trade chips are doing anything. Correia's got the same 84 ERA+ he posted the previous 6 seasons, Willingham is quickly falling back to his 2013 "he might be cooked" levels, Morales has done nothing for the Twins so far, and the bullpen has been "meh" outside of Perkins and maybe Fien (peripherals if not performance too).

 

Not saying Suzuki will get a great prospect, but by virtue of steady performance and modest contract this year, he should net something better than he has the past two summers (when he was dealt as an expensive backup). And he might be the only one of these Twins trade chips to fetch anything right now.

[jokin]

No GM with a brain would underbid for Dozier because of those stats. Would they hem and haw over those stats to reduce their perceived interest? Certainly, that's good bargaining.

 

But at the end of the day, Dozier will command a top 25 prospect and they all know it.

 

Again, not advocating that the Twins trade Dozier.

 

What if a Dozier trade involves a healthy Bundy, Aaron Sanchez, or Syndergaard?

[Brock Beauchamp]

What if a Dozier trade involves a healthy Bundy, Sanchez, or Syndergaard?

 

I'm all for trading anybody if the return is better than what you're giving up.

 

So yeah, probably.

[zenser]

I am guessing the Cardinals would probably look at AJ or John Buck first rather than make a trade for Suzuki.

[gunnarthor]

I am guessing the Cardinals would probably look at AJ or John Buck first rather than make a trade for Suzuki.

Reports out of St Louis say the have no interest in AJ. Mild on Buck.

 

I do hope the Twins try and trade Suzuki. They got Gilmartin for Doumit and Suliman (sp) for Buetera. Both were top 15 prospects in their orgs. Catchers are more valuable than we think.

[jay]

I'd need to be even more blown away than that to trade Dozier. All the chatter to trade him just doesn't make any sense at all.

 

He's pretty darn close to establishing himself as a top 10 2B, if he hasn't already. He just turned 27 and is cost controlled through 2018 at which time he'll be 31. Those are exactly the kind of guys the Twins need if they hope to contend. Prospects are great, but trading him away just opens up another hole that would need to be filled with a competent, performing MLBer... and those aren't easy to come by.

 

The only way you trade him is if you don't think this team has a chance to contend until 2019. I'd hope we're closer than that...

[Otto von Ballpark]

I like Dozier, and I think there is almost a zero percent chance they trade him because they like him too... but could this be selling high? Should we be a little less picky about what return we demand?

 

If he's a true 108 OPS+ hitter like he has been this year, that's solid up the middle. But a lot of that OPS+ is based on a handful of line-drive HR (and extra walks) in his age-26 and age-27 seasons. Would it be all that surprising to see him level off closer to his overall 2013 OPS+ of 98? We were all tantalized by the changes he made with Bruno and his last 4 months in 2013 as a ~120 OPS+ hitter, but given his profile and his recent cooling off, maybe his overall numbers from last season are more instructive going forward, given his modest background and streaky tendencies.

 

A 98 OPS+ player with solid defense up the middle, at pre-arb (2015) and arb (2016-2018) salaries, is certainly valuable. But it probably isn't worth an elite prospect, right? That offensive profile isn't that different than Trevor Plouffe.

 

(And not to compare them, but I remember another modest prospect 26-27 year old Twin who had a line-drive HR binge: Lew Ford. 118 OPS+ through age 27, still 105 OPS+ through a tougher age-28 season, then collapse. Not saying Dozier will do that, but the age, prospect status, and curious power tendencies are similar.)

[gunnarthor]

Reds just lost Phillips for the year and Votto for a bit. If they would package something around Robert Stephenson, or if Bundy could be pried away from Baltimore or if the Nats decide to fix their second base problems long term and are willing to move Giolito, the Twins should move Dozier and hope that one of Polanco, Santana, Rosario can take over second. But absent something like that (Tavaras from St Louis would be amazing but I don't really see a need/fit to get him), I'd be ok with the Twins hanging onto Dozier. He can be a piece when the Twins are good again.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

If the Cardinals want to replace Molina with someone outside the org, they'll have to play better defense than AJ, and hit better than Buck. Suzuki is the best of the three, though I'm guessing the Cardinals will really miss Molina's defense no matter who replaces him.

 

Suzuki is probably the most attractive option for St. Louis, assuming they can't pry Russell Martin away from their division rivals.

 

 

The Twins should make the Cardinals (or anyone else interested in Suzuki) pay a premium for the best available catcher on the market.