Article: Jared Burton, the case for dismissal.

[Mike Sixel]

Also, is Perkins actually better than the median "closer" right now, or do we just think that?

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Age is important if all other factors are equal. There were few pitchers in their 20s that were as good as Morris or Blyleven were in their mid-30's. It's not a problem to have a 33 year old guy in your rotation - but there's Randy Johnson at 33 and then there's Kevin Correia. I'd still take the Hall Of Famer first.

 

If it's a Kevin Correia - level 25 year old pitcher, I'd probably want to give the starts to the younger guy - he might still get better.

[jokin]

Also, is Perkins actually better than the median "closer" right now, or do we just think that?

 

Almost right on schedule with the pitcher aging curves, Perk's FB velo has dropped ~2 MPH year over year.

[Mike Sixel]

btw, I checked FG, and Perkins is still a top 10 reliever.....so I might have been wrong about his abiliy (but still think he's not untouchable for a non-contendor like the Twins). I'm on the fence on Perkins, frankly.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Perkins has a contract that is an asset - it's fairly team friendly assuming the wheels don't fall off. So that's both a reason to keep him and a reason to trade him sooner than later. I think he should be retained as long as he's still the best pitcher in the bullpen.

[cmathewson]

Guys go from crappy to god and back in the bullpen all the time. I'm OK with waiting until Burton and Guerrier go back to crappy before dumping them. Same with Correia. As long as he pitches like this, he's the best option. I look for May to replace Pino in the near term. Then let's see. There's no urgency on getting rid of guys just because they are relatively old.

[Mike Sixel]

Other than trying to get better this year and in the future......

[Buck Nasty]

Other than trying to get better this year and in the future......

 

It's just a difference of opinion. You and Jokin have some valid points. But the question is: Does the extra time in the minors help or hurt the top prospects? I think each player/situation is different. Bringing Hicks up early didn't seem to do him any good. Meyer is exciting, but he seems inconsistent at AAA and coming off arm trouble - maybe it's better to keep a lid on him vs. having him amped up for a few meaningless starts in the bigs. May seems ready and I'm pretty confident he'll get a shot this year. Tonklin was up earlier this year and got sent down based on performance. With the addition of Morales, it seems to me that they are going to run with it this year in a weak division. If that's the case - would you rather have vets or rookies playing?

[cmathewson]

It's just a difference of opinion. You and Jokin have some valid points. But the question is: Does the extra time in the minors help or hurt the top prospects? I think each player/situation is different. Bringing Hicks up early didn't seem to do him any good. Meyer is exciting, but he seems inconsistent at AAA and coming off arm trouble - maybe it's better to keep a lid on him vs. having him amped up for a few meaningless starts in the bigs. May seems ready and I'm pretty confident he'll get a shot this year. Tonklin was up earlier this year and got sent down based on performance. With the addition of Morales, it seems to me that they are going to run with it this year in a weak division. If that's the case - would you rather have vets or rookies playing?

 

Exactly. I want wins right now. Hopefully we can get closer in the next month and maybe add to rather than subtracting from the current roster. If not, sell. But it's too early to dump useful pieces when we are this close to contention.

[jokin]

It's just a difference of opinion. You and Jokin have some valid points. But the question is: Does the extra time in the minors help or hurt the top prospects? I think each player/situation is different. Bringing Hicks up early didn't seem to do him any good. Meyer is exciting, but he seems inconsistent at AAA and coming off arm trouble - maybe it's better to keep a lid on him vs. having him amped up for a few meaningless starts in the bigs. May seems ready and I'm pretty confident he'll get a shot this year. Tonklin was up earlier this year and got sent down based on performance. With the addition of Morales, it seems to me that they are going to run with it this year in a weak division. If that's the case - would you rather have vets or rookies playing?

 

Exactly. I want wins right now. Hopefully we can get closer in the next month and maybe add to rather than subtracting from the current roster. If not, sell. But it's too early to dump useful pieces when we are this close to contention.

 

Exactly wrong, what's offered here will soon become obvious, it's a false choice.

 

The AL averages 2.53 pitchers on the roster that are age 25 or younger. There is only one team that has zero arms under 25, of course, that is the Twins. Even a fringe contender should have some arms capable of contributing at the major league level who career-wise are just before the average physical peak for the typical pitcher.

 

If you don't have that cycle in place, you end up in the situation the Twins find themselves in now...ie, up until very recently (we hope), they have either been unwilling, or unable, or both, to find, sign, develop and promote a recurring supply of young arms that can be called upon to reliably contribute at the major league level. This puts them in a dangerous downward cycle relative to the rest of the League, and explains a lot about why they are annually the worst team for K% and K/9.

[Buck Nasty]

Exactly wrong, what's offered here will soon become obvious, it's a false choice.

 

The AL averages 2.53 pitchers on the roster that are age 25 or younger. There is only one team that has zero arms under 25, of course, that is the Twins. Even a fringe contender should have some arms capable of contributing at the major league level who career-wise are just before the average physical peak for the typical pitcher.

 

If you don't have that cycle in place, you end up in the situation the Twins find themselves in now...ie, up until very recently (we hope), they have either been unwilling, or unable, or both, to find, sign, develop and promote a recurring supply of young arms that can be called upon to reliably contribute at the major league level. This puts them in a dangerous downward cycle relative to the rest of the League, and explains a lot about why they are annually the worst team for K% and K/9.

 

Huh? You lost me there. Personally, I think you are on the wrong track with focusing so much on ages. I'm not sure what you are even proposing anymore since the top prospects at AAA are already 24 going on 25. Of those, several have already been up: Tonkin, Pressley (last year), Darnell. Seems like a lot of bellyaching over nothing if you ask me. Personally, I think you should focus more about the lack of offense and less about how old the back of the bullpen is.

[jokin]

Huh? You lost me there. Personally, I think you are on the wrong track with focusing so much on ages. I'm not sure what you are even proposing anymore since the top prospects at AAA are already 24 going on 25. Of those, several have already been up: Tonkin, Pressley (last year), Darnell. Seems like a lot of bellyaching over nothing if you ask me. Personally, I think you should focus more about the lack of offense and less about how old the back of the bullpen is.

 

Pressly was a Rule 5.

 

Facts ain't bellyaching. As the chart indicates, age is a critical component for maximizing pitcher value. PItching, not hitting is 70% of the game- the Twins bought some improvement, but they're still the worst SP staff in MLB in ERA and K%/K/9 (not counting the elevation-challenged Rockies in ERA), so it isn't just the back of the bullpen.... the Twins aren't getting young arms up and producing at a young, pre-prime age- to max out on their prime years, while they are still cost-controlled. The rest of the AL, contenders and non-contenders alike, averages 2.71 pitchers 25 and under because they understand this.

[LaBombo]

Huh? You lost me there. Personally, I think you are on the wrong track with focusing so much on ages. I'm not sure what you are even proposing anymore since the top prospects at AAA are already 24 going on 25. Of those, several have already been up: Tonkin, Pressley (last year), Darnell. Seems like a lot of bellyaching over nothing if you ask me. Personally, I think you should focus more about the lack of offense and less about how old the back of the bullpen is.

If you can name a team that has undergone a successful rebuild recently with a pitching staff mostly over 30 a year or two before contention, we're all ears. Can't recall one myself.

 

The potential lack of offense was mentioned by several posters including jokin and myself during the offseason and ST, and there was some understandable skepticism of that opinion, especially after the crazy start some Twins like Colabello got off to in April. By now, however, most people would agree that as presently constructed, the Twins will struggle to reach a league average run output.

 

But fixing the offense will only take them so far if they're still fiddling around with finding replacements for the 30-something pitchers who are likely to decline to a noticeable degree just as the Age of Sano and Buxton arrives next year or in 2016. Successful rebuilding teams mostly do that before entering a period of contention, not during it.

 

It doesn't look to me like anyone is in favor of focusing strictly on youth over quality, just on replacing downside guys with upside ones where it doesn't substantially harm the current team's competitiveness. If the Twins can rebuild without the staff getting younger this season, that's fine, but recent history, especially their own, seems to suggest otherwise.

[The Wise One]

Pressly was a Rule 5.

 

Facts ain't bellyaching. As the chart indicates, age is a critical component for maximizing pitcher value. PItching, not hitting is 70% of the game- the Twins bought some improvement, but they're still the worst SP staff in MLB in ERA and K%/K/9 (not counting the elevation-challenged Rockies in ERA), so it isn't just the back of the bullpen.... the Twins aren't getting young arms up and producing at a young, pre-prime age- to max out on their prime years, while they are still cost-controlled. The rest of the AL, contenders and non-contenders alike, averages 2.71 pitchers 25 and under because they understand this.

 

Correlation to age is what it is. Because someone is a certain age does not give them talent. Focusing on age means nothing. FFocus on the talent that the person has.

[Mike Sixel]

Age is a cause of body change, not merely a correlation.

[The Wise One]

Age is a cause of body change, not merely a correlation.

 

There is great variability within each individual to when age factors in. Perkins is 31. Is he going to be a factor as a pitcher in 2020? Maybe, maybe not. Being over 30 didn't stop Rivera. LaTroy Hawkins has been effective as a reliever into his 40s. The Cardinals did not care that Choate is older than dirt the last two years. Not considering the closer, bullpens have turnover. The age isn't important. What they can do for that year is the determining factor. Roeneke was 30 last year. Brunett was much younger. If age was the the vital factor they should have kept Brunett. They went with talent.

In regards to having a collection of old pitchers and winning, Boston won with Breslow, Urehara, Peavey, Dempster, Lackey, Thorton, Aceves and Hanrahan all being over 30 on their staff last year. 5 of them were on the World Series roster.

[Mike Sixel]

But the Twins are not contending, that is our point. Rebuilding teams should not be old.

[Thrylos]

Correlation to age is what it is. Because someone is a certain age does not give them talent. Focusing on age means nothing. .

 

Sorry, I don't mean it negatively by any means, but you must be in your (early) twenties if you believe that.

 

The male body's ability peaks in the early twenties and it is downhill from there. Lots of physical ability is lost in the thirties and most of it is gone by forty. Most of the thirty some year olds who are pitching at a high level do that by going to extremes in conditioning and they are pitching with their brains.

[The Wise One]

Sorry, I don't mean it negatively by any means, but you must be in your (early) twenties if you believe that.

 

The male body's ability peaks in the early twenties and it is downhill from there. Lots of physical ability is lost in the thirties and most of it is gone by forty. Most of the thirty some year olds who are pitching at a high level do that by going to extremes in conditioning and they are pitching with their brains.

 

In regards to my age, stick to facts you know and don't show off your ability to have incorrect analytical skills.

How much of pitching is mental? It might be a real interesting debate at what point and factors decrease the ability to think. The point is having talent enough to pitch is not age dependent. Yep, you go downhill after 19. It doesn't mean that you can't pitch. The Twins staff is not lousy because they are over 30, they were what they are before that age.

The numbers are Burton this year are not good. Duh. Same speed of pitches, nobody has said the movement is off. His physical skill did not deteriorate. Something wasn't right. The guess is age related. There is no proof. Just assumptions based on opinion, much like you started off your post with.

[LaBombo]

Being over 30 didn't stop Rivera.

 

Hall of Famers age well. Otherwise they wouldn't be Hall of Famers. The best players are usually the ones to be effective well into their thirties. The higher up the mountain you start, the longer you can ski before reaching the bottom. A 6 WAR player can lose 2 points due to age and still be a valuable player. A 2.5 WAR player cannot.

 

 

In regards to having a collection of old pitchers and winning, Boston won with Breslow, Urehara, Peavey, Dempster, Lackey, Thorton, Aceves and Hanrahan all being over 30 on their staff last year. 5 of them were on the World Series roster.

 

Three of their four most valuable starters last season were under 29 years old in 2012, with Lackey being the sole exception. Peavy and Dempster combined for a net 0.4 WAR in 2013, which is pretty much Cole De Vries territory.

 

Age, whether we like it or not, is a key factor in player performance prediction, especially after 30. Just because their are plenty of exceptions is no reason to disregard information that gives a relatively accurate estimate of regression in most players over thirty years old.

[Craig Arko]

Oh, sorry. I seem to have stumbled into Logan's Run by accident.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Correlation to age is what it is. Because someone is a certain age does not give them talent. Focusing on age means nothing. FFocus on the talent that the person has.

True, and experience is a much better indication of proficiency than age. Baseball being a game of statistics; what are the odds that a 30-33 year old is still playing in 3-5 years? What are the odds that a 20-23 year old is still playing? What are the odds that a 26 year old pitcher, pitches well,with zero experience?

[LaBombo]

Oh, sorry. I seem to have stumbled into Logan's Run by accident.

 

Thirty; the new twenty-one... No, nothing quite that serious, although it's possible that at least one poster is ready to convert Jared Burton into Soylent Green.

 

No, it's more like a pitcher retirement investment seminar, replete with scary Powerpoint graphs of the dramatic roll-off in the income potential of pitchers in their early 30's.

[DocBauer]

Actually kind of tired of this debate.

 

What you do, what you bring, is what's important. Still think the Twins...for now...are playing the "who can do the best for NOW" game. Haven't even reached the second half of the season yet. I believe we're buying time, trying to win, not a bad thing, getting ready for future promotions. And those are coming. Already seen some in the minors, and there will be more. As an organization, they really aren't standing pat.

 

Same time next year, Correia will be gone. Burton and the G-Man the same. That will leave Nolasco, Perk, Fien and Duensing all in their early 30's.

[jokin]

Hall of Famers age well. Otherwise they wouldn't be Hall of Famers. The best players are usually the ones to be effective well into their thirties. The higher up the mountain you start, the longer you can ski before reaching the bottom. A 6 WAR player can lose 2 points due to age and still be a valuable player. A 2.5 WAR player cannot.

 

 

 

 

Three of their four most valuable starters last season were under 29 years old in 2012, with Lackey being the sole exception. Peavy and Dempster combined for a net 0.4 WAR in 2013, which is pretty much Cole De Vries territory.

 

Age, whether we like it or not, is a key factor in player performance prediction, especially after 30. Just because their are plenty of exceptions is no reason to disregard information that gives a relatively accurate estimate of regression in most players over thirty years old.

 

Yeoman duty, well said. Hopefully, some of this sinks in to the doubters. I think bringing up Rivera as one's "proof" is instead, rather the exception that proves the rule. I'm not sure why it's so difficult to understand that for every Rivera, there lies the hundreds of ticking time bombs in the likes of Jose Valverde, Matt Guerrier and Jared Burton.

[jokin]

Actually kind of tired of this debate.

 

What you do, what you bring, is what's important. Still think the Twins...for now...are playing the "who can do the best for NOW" game. Haven't even reached the second half of the season yet. I believe we're buying time, trying to win, not a bad thing, getting ready for future promotions. And those are coming. Already seen some in the minors, and there will be more. As an organization, they really aren't standing pat.

 

Same time next year, Correia will be gone. Burton and the G-Man the same. That will leave Nolasco, Perk, Fien and Duensing all in their early 30's.

 

Correia yes, but how can you be sure that both Burt-ie and Guerrier will be gone? With the four definite 30+ returnees you mentioned above, plus one of the above....that's 5.... And what about Deduno, Pino and Pelfrey, Johnson.... with Swarzak turning 30 in September, 2015? It's easy to see at least Pelfrey and Swarzak, plus one more of them to get a shot at a roster spot... that makes 8 over/at 30. It still looks like the Twins will have the oldest staff in baseball...and as I noted, Perkins FB velo has fallen by 2 MPH, Swarzak's K% has fallen from 17.8% to 12.1%, Duensing's K/9 has utterly collapsed from 8.26 to 4.83 while his BB% has upticked, right on schedule.... the aging curve will still be working against the lot of them. The most likely youth additions look to only being May and Tonkin, with Meyer/Darnell/Achter/Oliveros waiting for an opportunity in Roc.

[jokin]

Same speed of pitches, nobody has said the movement is off. His physical skill did not deteriorate. Something wasn't right. The guess is age related.

 

There is no proof.

 

Burton's pitches are all off 1 to 1.5 MPH., which fits right into the aggregate pitcher age curve for declining velocity (with the commensurate drop in Burton's K/9 and increase in BB/9).

 

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Pitcher_Curves_Relievers.png

[DocBauer]

Correia yes, but how can you be sure that both Burt-ie and Guerrier will be gone? With the four definite 30+ returnees you mentioned above, plus one of the above....that's 5.... And what about Deduno, Pino and Pelfrey, Johnson.... with Swarzak turning 30 in September, 2015? It's easy to see at least Pelfrey and Swarzak, plus one more of them to get a shot at a roster spot... that makes 8 over/at 30. It still looks like the Twins will have the oldest staff in baseball...and as I noted, Perkins FB velo has fallen by 2 MPH, Swarzak's K% has fallen from 17.8% to 12.1%, Duensing's K/9 has utterly collapsed from 8.26 to 4.83 while his BB% has upticked, right on schedule.... the aging curve will still be working against the lot of them. The most likely youth additions look to only being May and Tonkin, with Meyer/Darnell/Achter/Oliveros waiting for an opportunity in Roc.

 

Hey, great points. But isn't projecting the future, 2015 in this case, all projection at this point anyway?

 

We can look at talent, projection, depth all we want. But until the season ends, MLB and Milb, and FA occurs and next ST, it's all just projection and theory. Right?

 

Imploring even a bit of logic along with projectables, current performance, stuff, and performance recently before this season, we can make a few strong educated guesses.

 

First, can we at least agree that a MLB pitcher who is 30, or early 30's is not an over the hill albatross? If you disagree, then Perk, Duensing, Swarzak, Fien and Nolasco should be immediately be shown to the nearest turn style, handed a walker, and thanked for their efforts. Now, Nolasco hasn't lived up to expectation yet, but do we really jettison a veteran pitcher with a solid history after half a season? Do we dump an all star reliever because his counter clicked past 29? Fien has been anywhere from good to very good, if not better at times, since he came on board. But we're scared suddenly he'll need a Walker to take the mound next year? Some fans just have a dislike for Duensing that I just don't get. He's not perfect, but he's been a very solid LH reliever when allowed to concentrate on a role instead of being bounced around.

 

I understand your numbers. I really do. And baseball is a game of numbers. But those numbers can also be fluid from week to week, month to month, and especially in the case of relievers, year to year.

 

Correia will be gone. Barring another fountain of youth for the second half of the season, so should be Burton and Guerrier. This is where logic, diminishing talent meet. Along with talented prospects intrude. Pino and Deduno are what they are. And what they are are fill in players who's time has come. With the talent coming up, you think the Twins don't recognize this. Once again, this is a transition year. Or is it better, and more acurate to call it a bridge year?

 

Logic and projection would show a rotation next year of Hughes, Nolasco, Gibson, possibly May, and someone else. Someone else could be Meyer, Darnell, Pelfrey or Johnson. (Possibly Berrios at some point)

 

Logic also dictates a pen of Perkins, Fien, a FA, Duensing, Thielbar, and 2 others that may include Pressly, Tonkin, Atcher, Swarzak, Oliveres and a few others.

 

Best logical guess would be 5-6 pitchers on the staff that were 30 plus. And was pointed out, there is a difference from an effective 30 y.o. Compared to an end of the road mid to late 30 y.o.

 

Hey, I want every top Twins prospect to hit the ML's tomorrow and just rock it! But if we have 40-50% of our total pitching staff at age 30 and effective, this is a bad thing? How? Because one or two of them are holding a spot solidly until a younger player is ready?

[SwainZag]

I honestly think there are some on this board that if they took over the team would DFA Correia, Burton, Deduno and Matty G tomorrow and call up 4 prospects just because the Twins are "rebuilding."

 

Let's face it, the Twins probably aren't going to win this year.....BUT they are in the hunt still. Why just DFA and get rid of guys who have value and are pitching decent because "they are above the league average in age." Who cares? Everyone knows those 4 and above 30 players Willingham and possible Susuki will be gone next year all replaced by 20-somethings. What's the rush? Why not see how they do as a team and see if they have value at the deadline than just get rid of them?

 

What if you call up May and Meyer and they both struggle? I really think some people think that couldn't happen. Let's look at Kyle Gibson.

 

The whole age thing mystifies the hell out of me. We know the core of the future is in the minor leagues right now and that's the major part of the rebuild.

[The Wise One]

Burton's pitches are all off 1 to 1.5 MPH., which fits right into the aggregate pitcher age curve for declining velocity (with the commensurate drop in Burton's K/9 and increase in BB/9).

 

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Pitcher_Curves_Relievers.png

 

Sigh. His current fastball on average is faster than what was clocked in 2009, 2010 and 2011. In terms of what makes Burton effective as a reliever do you really think it was a blazing 91-92 mph fastball? A fastball that averages 91 versus 91.5 versus 91.9 (as Burton effectiveness was not in dispute) really makes a difference