Article: Jared Burton, the case for dismissal.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Mostly I just can't stand Jared Burton.

 

Well, the one thing I will give you, is that Burton seemed to have a Nathan-esque meltdown against the Yankees last summer, so hopefully we use Burton a little more discreetly in that long Yankees series coming up. But honestly Burton's doing good right now.

[curt1965]

My reasoning is: let's hope we can catch lightning in a bottle! Look what Santana has done. His play has created an excitement we haven't experienced in years. With Burton and Guerrier, you know what to expect. Their ceiling is extremely low. My reaction when they enter the game is,"oh no, don't screw it up." Yes, Burton might have been good in 2012, but that's ancient history to me.

[Willihammer]

Here's how I look at it.

 

In Gardy's mind, the bullpen pecking order looks like this

 

Perkins

Fien

Burton

Guerrier

Duensing

Swarzak

Theilbar

Deduno

 

If you dump Burton, then all those game breaking spots are going to fall to Duensing and Guerrier. Is that what we want?

 

No no no no no. We had a decade of watching those two choke in big spots. Burton may not be the best setup man in the game but he is a better big-time pitcher than Gardy's two favorites.

 

[TABLE=width: 500]

[TABLE=width: 582]

[TD=colspan: 2]Guerrier

[TD=colspan: 2]Duensing[/TD]

Burton

Leverage

BB%

K%

OPS

BB%

K%

OPS

BB%

K%

OPS

High Lvrge

[TD=align: right]6.01%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]15.10%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.741[/TD]

[TD=align: right]7.73%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]14.35%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.787[/TD]

[TD=align: right]8.83%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]19.57%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.644[/TD]

Medium Lvrge

[TD=align: right]11.84%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]17.85%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.671[/TD]

[TD=align: right]6.86%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]14.42%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.752[/TD]

[TD=align: right]9.46%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]21.28%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.741[/TD]

Low Lvrge

[TD=align: right]7.16%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]15.50%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.667[/TD]

[TD=align: right]7.31%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]17.06%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.733[/TD]

[TD=align: right]9.08%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]20.39%[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.658[/TD]

[/TABLE]

[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD]

[/TABLE]

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I would say that I loved how Gardy played that situation. Knowing Perkins wasn't available, he let his best bullpen arm (Fien) pitch to the White Sox top hitters in the 8th inning, and then brought Burton in for the ninth inning.

 

Ah, but Gardy was not managing the team at the time (he was ejected), so... we're both wrong?

Do pitching changes fall to Anderson, or was it Molitor's call? I do think Fien is better than Burton, so it does stand to reason to use him against the opponent's best hitters in late innings. We agree there 100%.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Here's how I look at it.

 

In Gardy's mind, the bullpen pecking order looks like this

 

Perkins

Fien

Burton

Guerrier

Duensing

Swarzak

Theilbar

Deduno

 

If you dump Burton, then all those game breaking spots are going to fall to Duensing and Guerrier. Is that what we want?

 

No no no no no. We had a decade of watching those two choke in big spots. Burton may not be the best setup man in the game but he is a better big-time pitcher than Gardy's two favorites.

 

[TABLE=width: 500]

[TABLE=width: 582]

[TD=colspan: 2]Guerrier

[/TD]

[TD=colspan: 2]Duensing

[/TD]

Burton

Leverage

BB%

K%

OPS

BB%

K%

OPS

BB%

K%

OPS

High Lvrge

[TD=align: right]6.01%

[TD=align: right]15.10%

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.741

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]7.73%

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]14.35%

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.787

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]8.83%

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]19.57%

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.644

[/TD]

Medium Lvrge

[TD=align: right]11.84%

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]17.85%

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.671

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]6.86%

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]14.42%

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.752

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]9.46%

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]21.28%

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.741

[/TD]

Low Lvrge

[TD=align: right]7.16%

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]15.50%

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.667

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]7.31%

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]17.06%

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.733

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]9.08%

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]20.39%

[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.658

[/TD]

[/TABLE]

[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD]

[/TABLE]

 

yep - the other thing is the guy that replaces Burton (assuming that move is made) slides in somewhere between Deduno, Thielbar, and Swarzak - the new guy is not going to immediately be used in all the situations that Burton is being used now.

 

I'm still on the fence about Burton - I think he's a useful guy to have on the team (no really) assuming that the team is contending for a playoff spot this year. If they fall out of the race, it is a roster space better spent on allowing a young arm to take his lumps.

[Squirrel]

Ah, but Gardy was not managing the team at the time (he was ejected), so... we're both wrong?

Do pitching changes fall to Anderson, or was it Molitor's call? I do think Fien is better than Burton, so it does stand to reason to use him against the opponent's best hitters in late innings. We agree there 100%.

 

Or Steinbach, as he took over when Gardy was ejected. (At least I thought that's how it was.)

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Or Steinbach, as he took over when Gardy was ejected. (At least I thought that's how it was.)

 

Could have been Steinbach - I was at the game but was sitting far enough back that I wasn't sure who was in charge after Gardy left.

[LaBombo]

Exactly how are burton and Guerrier bad players? Burton has been effective as of late and in 2012/2013, Matt has been effective for sure this year.

 

And yes, currently the twins are contenders, if they find themselves 10 games out 5 weeks from now then I will likely change my tune.

 

They are not "exactly" bad players, but they are approximating them by being the age where non-stars usually fall of the face of MLB, posting pretty bad peripherals, and filling the most easily replaceable position in baseball for a rebuilding franchise.

 

As for the contention thing... well, the Twins are... the Twins. Until well after the break, team wins and losses matter about as much as pitcher wins and losses.

[DaveW]

 

As for the contention thing... well, the Twins are... the Twins. Until well after the break, team wins and losses matter about as much as pitcher wins and losses.

 

Oh yeah, I forgot those April/May wins only count for .5 wins...

 

I think it is clear the Twins have the SP to contend, the bullpen to contend and the hitting to potentially contend.

 

Of course this all assumes the Twins remain relatively healthy down the stretch, but it isn't absurd to think the Twins could be within 5 or so games heading into Sept for both the Wild Card and/or Division.

[LaBombo]

Oh yeah, I forgot those April/May wins only count for .5 wins...

 

Small samples of team wins and losses -yes, like in April and May- don't tell as much about the competitiveness of the team as individual player performances and run differential. It's common for a mediocre team to dramatically outperform its pythag for a month, or even two, but not for a whole season.

 

It's great that the Twins are doing better than last year, and are more fun to watch. But the Twins simply didn't do enough in the off-season and haven't shown enough this season, for me at least, to sell the notion of contention.

 

And if they're not in the race for real, that means that dead wood like mid-30's, 5.00+ xFip middle relievers need to be cleared out eventually. It's business, not personal.

[jokin]

Small samples of team wins and losses -yes, like in April and May- don't tell as much about the competitiveness of the team as individual player performances and run differential. It's common for a mediocre team to dramatically outperform its pythag for a month, or even two, but not for a whole season.

 

It's great that the Twins are doing better than last year, and are more fun to watch. But the Twins simply didn't do enough in the off-season and haven't shown enough this season, for me at least, to sell the notion of contention.

 

And if they're not in the race for real, that means that dead wood like mid-30's, 5.00+ xFip middle relievers need to be cleared out eventually. It's business, not personal.

 

Eventually? How about taking a couple (metaphorical) Thompson's to the whole lot, sooner rather than later, Tom Hagen. Yeah, "business is going to suffer" for a little while, but it's something they gots to do.

 

http://www.cinemadoor.com/images/sonnymurdered.jpg

 

10 pitchers over 30 on the 25-man/DL.

[LaBombo]

10 pitchers over 30 on the 25-man/DL.

 

Yeah. That's a concern on a .500-ish team coming off of three 90+ win seasons. It's bordering on a front office clean sweep after three 90+ loss seasons.

[DocBauer]

I don't know that I buy in to the arguement that the Twins didn't do enough to contend this season. And I say this for 2 reasons:

 

1) The team is, in fact, arguably, in contention for the central and possibly a wild card. Not saying they are a serious contender, but we have gone from three seasons of disappointing and downright awful to a fun team hovering around .500 and a chance for better with just a little more consistency, and, perhaps a softer schedule the second half if you believe prognosticators.

 

2) While they may have fallen flat on their faces in a couple well hashed and re-hashed areas, they did make some serious moves. And other than simply breaking the bank to stock FA's up and down the roster, or trade off a multitude of quality and top prospects, what more could they have accomplished after three such awful seasons?

 

Remember, we are in transition, we are rebuilding, and we are sooo much better this season. And despite the injury bummers to Sano and Buxton, the 50 game suspension or Rosario, and the lesser bummer of Meyer's recent struggles, we have a large group of youngsters still standing up to be noticed. And a couple of them are already on the roster.

 

Again, I feel arguements about the pen are very similar to feelings about the rotation. That being we all want the kids to come up and do will and pave the way for the future. But at the same time, cutting a veteran loose who's performing at least adequately is difficult.

 

For what it's worth, I believe Burton will be gone after this season sans a big second half. I believe Guerrier is also on borrowed time. Next season will see Perkins as closer, Duensing and Thielbar as the LH's. The Twins will spend Burton's money slot for another, younger, vet to team with Fien from the right side.

 

That locks up 5 of what will once again be a 7 man pen. Now, Darnell (if not in the rotation), Johnson and possibly Ibarra and Thompson will provide some competition for a LH spot, but more than likely, they make the club only if the Twins decide to keep a 3rd LH in the pen. (Not counting Perkins because he's not a "LH" he's a closer regardless) The last two spots are open competition between Tonkin, Achter, Swarzak, and possibly each of Pino and Deduno. Further, Hamburger and Oliveras may be ready to challenge. Not sure yet about Johnson at New Britain, but he is having a darn good year.

 

I think I'd feel good going in to ST next year with that collection. And a couple of the younger candidates should be up at some point this season to audition, even if it's September.

[jokin]

Yeah. That's a concern on a .500-ish team coming off of three 90+ win seasons. It's bordering on a front office clean sweep after three 90+ loss seasons.

 

I scanned the AL team list of pitcher's ages. The median number for pitchers over 30 is 5.5. The Twins are of course the oldest, with 10, Boston has 8, Texas has 7. Of the 3 current best teams in the AL, Toronto has 6, Oakland and Detroit, come in under the median number, with only 5.

[DocBauer]

Interesting stat for sure. But a little perspective.

 

Lets assume some easy speculation that Correia, Burton and Guerrier are gone next season. Let's also assume the Twins sign a solid veteran FA to replace Burton, as I have speculated. But let's just say he's 30 or 31. So we've lowered our "over 30" crowd by 2. So now we have 8 players at 30 or older.

 

Do we dump Perkins because he's over 30? Do we dump Fien or Duensing because they are over 30? Or Nolasco? (OK, he's been a little disappointing so far this season, but he's still relatively young for a MLB SP) Deduno and Pino may also be gone, and probably will.

 

Perkins, Fien, Duensing, Nolasco, and maybe a vet FA. That could easily be only 5 pitchers over 30. Not only does that out us in line with the rest of the league, but there is no rule that says a pitcher is done at 30.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Deleted

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Deleted

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Thread confusion.

 

Happens to to me all the time when I'm driving.

[jokin]

I scanned the AL team list of pitcher's ages. The median number for pitchers over 30 is 5.5. The Twins are of course the oldest, with 10, Boston has 8####, Texas has 7. Of the 3 current best teams in the AL, Toronto has 6, Oakland and Detroit, come in under the median number, with only 5.

 

#### Boston DFAs Capauno, Sox now down to 7 pitchers over 30.

[jokin]

Interesting stat for sure. But a little perspective.

 

Lets assume some easy speculation that Correia, Burton and Guerrier are gone next season. Let's also assume the Twins sign a solid veteran FA to replace Burton, as I have speculated. But let's just say he's 30 or 31. So we've lowered our "over 30" crowd by 2. So now we have 8 players at 30 or older.

 

Do we dump Perkins because he's over 30? Do we dump Fien or Duensing because they are over 30? Or Nolasco? (OK, he's been a little disappointing so far this season, but he's still relatively young for a MLB SP) Deduno and Pino may also be gone, and probably will.

 

Perkins, Fien, Duensing, Nolasco, and maybe a vet FA. That could easily be only 5 pitchers over 30. Not only does that out us in line with the rest of the league, but there is no rule that says a pitcher is done at 30.

 

No arguments that Correia, Burton and Guerrier should be gone next year....BUT.... the problem with ALL of them is why are they here this year?

 

Deduno's and Pino's track records are indicative of the fact that they really have no business as anything but AAA filler/emergency depth.

 

As is obvious if you look at all of the young arms 25 and under in the AL (KC has 5, Chicago and Detroit have 4)...most other teams would be using their innings for either helping their teams now, or for developmental time for guys that actually will be of help for them when they are more ready to contend.

[The Wise One]

I scanned the AL team list of pitcher's ages. The median number for pitchers over 30 is 5.5. The Twins are of course the oldest, with 10, Boston has 8, Texas has 7. Of the 3 current best teams in the AL, Toronto has 6, Oakland and Detroit, come in under the median number, with only 5.

 

By accummulated WAR the Boston Old Farts are the best pitching team in the AL. Using a player's age and not performance as the determinant of what to with a player is poor. On 1-2 year contracts age should be insignificant. Unless you can't think of any other reason to diss on a player.

[freshinthehouse]

Well' date=' our first action would be to have them (Dairy Queen) change "Arctic Blast" back to "Mister Misty". It's a damn crime against humanity.[/quote']

 

Pro tip: Next time you go through the drive thru at a DQ, holler that you want a misty misty. if the person on the other end seems confused, keep hollering. Eventually they'll get someone on the horn that knows what a mister misty is, and you will get your sweet treat without suffering the indignity that comes with uttering the phrase, "Artic Blast."

 

Artic Blast. What are we, shooting a skateboarding video or something?

[Paul Pleiss]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/3143-Jared-Burton-the-case-for-dismissal

[hybridbear]

No case to keep him. DFA him and bring up Tonkin or someone else from AAA who is deserving.

[Beezer07]

When did age become the be-all, end-all regarding baseball players? Did something need to fill the RBI void? And why are we lumping guys who are 35 in with guys who are 30, 31, and 32?

[Mike Sixel]

When you are old and bad, that is a bad combination, and indicates you are not rebuilding for the next year, since you will either be even older, or relying on rookies. There was a good article on Fangraphs a couple of months ago on this topic. Also, it indicates your farm system is not succeeding at graduating guys, which of that is your main plan for getting better is a bad sign.

[jokin]

By accummulated WAR the Boston Old Farts are the best pitching team in the AL. Using a player's age and not performance as the determinant of what to with a player is poor. On 1-2 year contracts age should be insignificant. Unless you can't think of any other reason to diss on a player.

 

When you are old and bad, that is a bad combination, and indicates you are not rebuilding for the next year, since you will either be even older, or relying on rookies. There was a good article on Fangraphs a couple of months ago on this topic. Also, it indicates your farm system is not succeeding at graduating guys, which of that is your main plan for getting better is a bad sign.

 

Actually, notwithstanding your garbled declarative, using a pitcher's age is likely the most important determinant, all other things being equal. Feel free to defend the Twins, who are documented to be completely bucking the trend away from ever-increasing K% rates around the rest of baseball- and the graphs that show the fall-off for pitchers after 30 for injury, velocity and K-rates only exacerbates the Twins already untenable situation in that regard. (Note how the physical peak for arms with respect to velo and K/9 peaks around 25-26).

 

The Red Sox are #1 in WAR, and it would totally be expected that as the defending WS champs, they would have the most veteran staff. But not surprisingly, they only have 7 pitchers over 30 to the Twins 10, and the Sox have 2 under 25, to the Twins Zero under 25- obviously, as Mikewantswins points out, someone in Boston is aware of the existing aging curve trends, and is developing and promoting the right way to reinvigorate the staff with youthful replacement arms- who are getting "on-the-job" training, ready to step in at a moment's notice.

 

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Pitcher_Curves_Starter-Reliever-Comp-K9.png

[Buck Nasty]

When did age become the be-all, end-all regarding baseball players? Did something need to fill the RBI void? And why are we lumping guys who are 35 in with guys who are 30, 31, and 32?

 

Exactly. 31 year old Glen Perkins seems to be doing OK. I don't think we win the World Series in '91 without 36 year old Jack Morris or the '87 World Series without 36 year old Bert Blyleven.

 

Regarding Jarod Burton, he's been ok player during his time here, but he is trending in the wrong direction based on year over year (FIP, WHIP). I think he's on the bubble right now based on performance - not age. These things always work themselves out based on what they do on the field.

[jokin]

Exactly. 31 year old Glen Perkins seems to be doing OK. I don't think we win the World Series in '91 without 36 year old Jack Morris or the '87 World Series without 36 year old Bert Blyleven.

 

Regarding Jarod Burton, he's been ok player during his time here, but he is trending in the wrong direction based on year over year (FIP, WHIP). I think he's on the bubble right now based on performance - not age. These things always work themselves out based on what they do on the field.

 

And adding those types of pitchers is what a team does that is one or two arms away from making a World Series run....last time I looked, rebuilding teams generally don't have the oldest pitching staff in baseball.

[Mike Sixel]

The issue isn't one or two old guys, it is that they don't have young guys at all. Hard to rebuild that way. Hard to manage your 25 man roster if all your RP are out of options. Hard to be ready for next year, or the year after. Also, anecdotes.