The NL Jose vs. Our Jose...What's not to like in this comp?

[jokin]

I responded in another thread with this remark, but I think what Berrios is doing relative to what the premier young NL SP was doing before he went down with injury, merits its own thread.

 

I hope the Twins go against their normal SOP of promoting by seniority-first and give Berrios his well-deserved reward. Jose Fernandez went straight to the Miami Marlins out of ST after finishing the previous year at age 20 in High-A ball.

 

Consider these stats, in the same level, at the same age:

 

Fernandez: ERA- 1.96 FIP- 2.34 K/9- 9.65 BB/9- 2.78

Berrios: ERA- 2.09 FIP- 2.34 K/9- 10.47 BB/9- 2.44

Should Berrios be able to continue this type of current success in New Britain this year, he would seemingly have an excellent chance at being a first or second call-up (after Meyer?) next year. Exciting times, especially if the Twins choose to be aggressive.

[Thrylos]

Next year is way too soon. FSL is a pitchers league. Let's see some success in AA first. He is still very young.

[jokin]

Next year is way too soon. FSL is a pitchers league. Let's see some success in AA first. He is still very young.

 

Is it too soon? In the face of the evidence and precedent? Maybe, but it seems to be worth exploring the possibility. As stated, Fernandez put up the numbers above pitching in the FSL, and as stated, at a "very young" age 20, earning him a major league promotion the next year. I get the feeling that Berrios is going to get his chance in AA in the near future, given the way he's pitching at such a dominant level at Ft Myers. I think he has a good chance to put up more good numbers in New Britain, with the necessary consideration that the Eastern League isn't as friendly to pitchers.

[Joe A. Preusser]

He's a baby. He's a fetus. Until I see AA success I am guarded. That goes the same for Thorp and the rest. Very excited about his potential, but let's calm down a bit.

[strumdatjag]

Meyer is a September call-up (probably), possibly earlier. We will probably not have to wait for next year. The Twins have the luxury of having a number of good starters at the Big league and AA level. There's no good reason to rush Berrios. Why rush him over the best performers in this group: Meyer, May, Darnell, Kris Johnson and Gilmartin? Also, Pino has an opportunity on Thursday to start showing his worth. Hopefully, Correia continues to pitch well and the TYwins can trade him and open up some room in their rotation (then again, that's what we used to think about having too much talent in the outfield)

[Thrylos]

Meyer is a September call-up (probably), possibly earlier.

 

Donuts to Dollars, unless there is something catastrophic with the Twins' rotation, Meyer will not get call up this season. He has shoulder issues and is in a strict limit.

 

Here is the kicker: If the Twins' wanted to, he could had been called up tomorrow instead of Pino. He is pitching tonight for Rochester.

[Paul Pleiss]

People keep talking about moving Correia for something more than a bag of balls. I don't know how that happens. He doesn't make a contender better, or keep anyone in the race longer.

 

I don't totally hate the idea of promoting Berrios next season, but like the rest of the gang I think we need to see him at AA before anyone gets too excited.

[jokin]

Donuts to Dollars, unless there is something catastrophic with the Twins' rotation, Meyer will not get call up this season. He has shoulder issues and is in a strict limit.

 

Here is the kicker: If the Twins' wanted to, he could had been called up tomorrow instead of Pino. He is pitching tonight for Rochester.

 

Yup. I am with you on this one Thrylos. What happened with Pino was disappointing, but not a bit unexpected. The Twins are counting on big things, eventually, from Meyer (no pun intended), and will remain extremely cautious around his mechancal issues, pitch counts, inning limits and elbow and shoulder health. I have proposed that they may very well wait until a year from now next June to pull the trigger on Meyer.

[Thrylos]

What happened with Pino was disappointing, but not a bit unexpected..

 

I was surprised to tell you the truth. I thought that it would be May. Don't be disappointed at all. Pino has a lot of movement (like Deduno), but (unlike Deduno) he has command of the fastball and he can change speeds (94-88) and locations regularly. Plus he has 2 out pitches (change and curve.) Not sure if you remember, but for a couple seasons he was a top prospect for the Twins (I'd say at the Felix Jorge/Lewis Thorpe level) Then he got nagging injuries and slowed down. Still, he was a top 20 prospect when traded for Pavano.

 

You'd like what you'll see, believe me. Saw him pitch live earlier this season and in Spring Training. Pretty dominant in May. Eventually I see him in a Swarzak (or a Ramiro Mendoza) type of role in a contending team (and hopefully that would be a Twins' team.)

 

So think of him as a spot starter.

[pierre75275]

Where did you get the fastball scouting report on Pino? Mike B from Star tribune says Pino FB sits at 87-88. i like your report better

[jokin]

I was surprised to tell you the truth. I thought that it would be May. Don't be disappointed at all. Pino has a lot of movement (like Deduno), but (unlike Deduno) he has command of the fastball and he can change speeds (94-88) and locations regularly. Plus he has 2 out pitches (change and curve.) Not sure if you remember, but for a couple seasons he was a top prospect for the Twins (I'd say at the Felix Jorge/Lewis Thorpe level) Then he got nagging injuries and slowed down. Still, he was a top 20 prospect when traded for Pavano.

 

You'd like what you'll see, believe me. Saw him pitch live earlier this season and in Spring Training. Pretty dominant in May. Eventually I see him in a Swarzak (or a Ramiro Mendoza) type of role in a contending team (and hopefully that would be a Twins' team.)

 

So think of him as a spot starter.

 

Thanks for the info- and I do remember back to when he was in the Twins organization. This type of updated first-hand information adds to the equation, and provides some clarification as to why the Twins chose to go this route. Having said that, Pino's peripheral numbers look like regression just waiting to happen. I'm also left wondering, if he really isn't a mirage, why he has been passed along by 4 clubs since he was traded by the Twins.

 

As I've said previously, I hope he proves me wrong, but starting jobs for May, Meyer and eventually Berrios, should not be blocked by 30 year old journeymen..... there are opportunities for roles on this staff to be had, in Pino's case, he seems best suited to try to take a job away from one of the other relievers, and perhaps, as you point out, have nice value additionally as a spot starter. Should he be successful, he would be a very cheap and crafty veteran presence for the forseeable future.

[drivlikejehu]

To stay on topic... before getting hurt, Fernandez was arguably the best pitcher in baseball. I don't think any pitching prospect can be compared to that, regardless of minor league stat similarities.

 

Having said that, Berrios is nasty. He definitely needs to go to AA and I'm not concerned at all about his ability to pitch at higher levels, including the Majors. Pitching is pitching. When you locate a 95 mph fastball and two good off-speed pitches, it really doesn't matter who is batting.

 

That's the difference to me between hitters & pitchers. Most hitters need to see progressively better pitching to make adjustments. I don't think the reverse holds true. Pitching is about quality and location. Berrios already has the first, and while his command isn't quite as good as his walk rate indicates (since A+ hitters are helpless against him), it's already decent and is a good bet to improve.

[jokin]

Where did you get the fastball scouting report on Pino? Mike B from Star tribune says Pino FB sits at 87-88. i like your report better

 

Do you mean Mike B from the Pioneer Press?*** He had this to say about Pino, which seems more in line with a journeyman's stuff:

 

Pino’s fastball only sits at 87-88 mph but there is deception in his delivery and late movement on his stuff. Fryer drew a comparison to left-hander Andrew Albers, who starred at Rochester last year and earned Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year honors before heading to South Korea this offseason.

 

Comparison's to Albers is probably not what we want long-term, but is precisely why I have doubts in general about Twins Minor League Pitchers of the Year-types. And it's why any talk, about having to wait for very long by blockage from Gilmartin, Johnson, Darnell, et al, over May, Meyer and then eventually, Berrios, to be very counter-productive.

 

***http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/06/18/twinsights-yohan-pino-set-to-make-franchise-history-on-thursday-night/

[jokin]

To stay on topic... before getting hurt, Fernandez was arguably the best pitcher in baseball. I don't think any pitching prospect can be compared to that, regardless of minor league stat similarities.

 

Having said that, Berrios is nasty. He definitely needs to go to AA and I'm not concerned at all about his ability to pitch at higher levels, including the Majors. Pitching is pitching. When you locate a 95 mph fastball and two good off-speed pitches, it really doesn't matter who is batting.

 

That's the difference to me between hitters & pitchers. Most hitters need to see progressively better pitching to make adjustments. I don't think the reverse holds true. Pitching is about quality and location. Berrios already has the first, and while his command isn't quite as good as his walk rate indicates (since A+ hitters are helpless against him), it's already decent and is a good bet to improve.

 

Yup, and to be clear, I'm not arguing that Berrios = Fernandez, just that with the numbers he's putting up in the exact same league and age as Fernandez...it just jumped off the page, plus we have the reports about his make-up from Dougie, all of which would suggest he be fast-tracked sooner rather than later. How many major league starters are there that can regularly rely on a 95 MPH FB, and now he's touching 98 on occasion?

[Thrylos]

Where did you get the fastball scouting report on Pino? Mike B from Star tribune says Pino FB sits at 87-88. i like your report better

 

My own eyes I see those guys play, you know Last I saw Pino pitching in the second game of a doubleheader against the Lehigh Valley IronPigs here. (Meyer started the first game.) That's what he was hitting in the pretty fair Coca Cola park scoreboard radar gun.

 

Not sure where other people get their scouting reports. Here is the major thing: He changes speeds a lot. 88-94 is the range. There might be one one each end, but think bell curve and tossing around it top to bottom all night.

 

You'll see tomorrow

[DocBauer]

Pino: surprised slightly, but what he's doing at the AAA level warrants a look of some sort. I'm still betting he's not a surprisingly late developer for the rotation, but more a 6th SP middle/ long relief possibility. If he proves this true, could be some real competition the rest of the year and next between him and Dedeno and Swarzak.

 

Meyer: I know he's on pitch and innings limits, and I don't object to that. He's got an arm and potential that you should protect. But I believe he will be up in September, maybe a start or two, but expecting him to get some relief innings. Just to get him a taste of ML life, and to let the coaches have a little time with him.

 

Seth: I'm with Seth, in another post, that there is probably another move coming soon, probably May. I don't know if that means trade, demotion of someone, or a single start for Pino. But we're approaching mid-season for minors and majors. This is the time of year when the Twins traditionally make their moves. There are several pitchers and position players seemingly ready and deserving of such. Could May benefit from addition time in AAA, considering its his first season there, probably. But I think we're at the point now where the time is right for his audition. It just feels right.

 

Darnell: See Meyer. Barring trade or injury, I think there is only one spot to fill at this time and it probably goes to May. But don't ignore this kid. This is not Santana or Liriano, but I think pure stuff he is better than Duensing. If not earlier, definitely September for some relief innings at least.

 

Berrios: Been a big believer since day one. My belief in the kid grows with each success, and each report of his attitude, preparation and work ethic. More and more I'm convinced he's a Pedro Martinez clone. (At least close/similar) And I do believe he deserves and is ready for AA, at least soon. I think when Mr. ? is also young and gets promoted quickly by someone, there is a knee-jerk reaction to do the same. But every young prospect, pitcher or position player, must be treated as an individual. There are considerations from the physical to the emotional. There can be technique issues. For a pitcher, it could be someone able to survive, for a time at least, on 2 pitches. While another similar young pitcher might need better command of that 3rd pitch, but might ultimately be the better player. It could be his slide step, or holding runners on, etc. Could be tomorrow, or another month, but I believe Berrios tastes AA this year. Probably opens up there next season as well. The Twins have shown a willingness in the past to promote from AA, (thinking 2015) but isn't it nice to know we have options that we don't have to rush someone, even someone as talented as Berrios.

[jokin]

He's a baby.

 

He's a fetus.

 

Until I see AA success I am guarded. That goes the same for Thorp and the rest. Very excited about his potential, but let's calm down a bit.

 

To coin a phrase: "One man's fetus is another man's phenom."

 

I think we're all remaining calm here. And I think we're all on the same page that AA is the next step, only sooner, rather than later, is my preference. Each prospect should be promoted on a case by case basis. Thorpe, Stewart, Gonsalves, et al, have just had the bar set high for them by Berrios, and I think that's a good thing.

 

Just one thing to leave you with, as I think too many fans are too accustomed and too comfortable with the Twins way with the go-slow approach to getting their best players to the majors- it just isn't the same at many other clubs, and they have gotten some good results from accelerating the process. It's now within reason that by June in 2015, the Twins could have a rotation of Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco, May and Meyer.....with SP depth of Darnell, Pelfrey and perhaps later in the season if he continues on his current trajectory, Berrios....and Berrios, not because they have to, but only if he is phenomenal and beats down the door.