How imminent is AAA pitching help? "The mystery" clarified, according to Gardy

[jokin]

While all eyes are on Kevin Correia tonight as he goes up against the Red Sox and hoping to protect his spot in the Twins rotation.....at the same time, Trevor May goes up against the PawSox, that is, the AAA farm club of Boston, Pawtucket Red Sox. While Correia will have his hands full in Fenway, May will be dealing with 3 very tough customers at the top of the PawSox order, Mookie Betts, a Top 100 MLB prospect, and who appears to have been an absolute steal in the 2011 draft in the 5th round, was recently promoted from AA, and appears to be very close to big league promotion. It doesn't get any easier for May, as Shane Victorino and Will Middlebrooks, both on rehab assignments, are batting #2 and #3.

 

Meanwhile, Mike Berardino notes that Rochester has a "TBD" listed as the starter for Thursday's game. Implications? Samuel Deduno is scheduled to start for the Twins, while it's Logan Darnell's turn for Rochester. Time will only tell what develops here.

 

Gardy was "pressed on the matter" of the pitching success in Rochester, the process involved in pulling the trigger and what it might mean for the near future of the MN Twins:

 

“The last thing we like to do is send them out and bring somebody else in. If it has to happen, it has to happen. People have to produce at this level. We understand that and we’re fortunate … to have people pitching very well at Triple-A right now that give us options.”

 

When pressed on the matter, Gardenhire made an interesting point that might shed light on why the Twins prefer to err on the safe side before calling up their young arms.

“You ever think about the competition down there?” Gardenhire said. “Have you checked how good the league is? That tells a lot. I’m not saying anything bad about our pitchers, but the competition in that (International) league is not the same as it is here. It’s a huge difference. So you start checking some of the track records and their consistency down there, too, in that league. Competition has a lot to with it.....

 

We have people down there, and they’re telling me whether they’re ready to do this or not, and I’m telling the general manager.

“When he decides they’re ready to do this, he will make that decision more than I will. You know what I mean? There’s way more to it than what’s just black and white and right out in front. There’s a lot involved, and I think you know what all those things are.”

 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/06/16/twinsights-sifting-for-clues-in-the-twins-rotation-mystery/

[stringer bell]

I read this and my response was "huh?" If someone can enlighten me about what this means, I would appreciate it.

[crapforks]

“When he decides they’re ready to do this, he will make that decision more than I will. You know what I mean? There’s way more to it than what’s just black and white and right out in front. There’s a lot involved, and I think you know what all those things are.”

 

That's more cryptic than I'm used to. Also confused.

[jokin]

Meanwhile, Trevor May has completed 7 innings against Pawtucket. He's only given up 2 hits (to Mookie Betts), with no runs scored, no walks and 9 Ks (including one K vs. Victorino).

[jokin]

May update, through 8 innings in Pawtucket- 8 IP, still 2 hits, 11 K, 103 pitches w/ 75 strikes.

 

Sure, "there's a lot involved," in making this decision, Gardy. But what more does this guy need to show?

[jorgenswest]

He won't be pitching Thursday.

[John Bonnes]

Well, I think the point is that it isn't Gardy's call. He might have some input. He might say "I don't want to start Deduno any more." But I don't think he gets to say "Call up May."

[jokin]

Well, I think the point is that it isn't Gardy's call. He might have some input. He might say "I don't want to start Deduno any more." But I don't think he gets to say "Call up May."

 

Yup. My thoughts, in breaking down Gardy's cryptic comments, was that he provided some direction on how much power he wields in this situation, as he seemingly was actually saying: "My hands are tied here....that call is one step above my pay grade."

[jokin]

He won't be pitching Thursday.

 

Nope, but maybe sooner rather than later. May finishes his night, throwing 120 pitches in 8.1 IP. He gave up 2 walks, 1 hit and one ER in the 9th before being relieved by Aaron Thompson.

[Guest USAFChief]

“When he decides they’re ready to do this, he will make that decision more than I will. You know what I mean? There’s way more to it than what’s just black and white and right out in front. There’s a lot involved, and I think you know what all those things are.”

 

What else?

 

I don't know what "all those things" are, and I'd like to know. Money? Service time? Scouting reports? Stubbornness?

 

What?

 

Because the "black and white" of it seems pretty easy to understand, to me. Deduno doesn't give you much chance to win, too often.

[curt1965]

120 pitches-I know Bert would be happy, but any thoughts on this?

[twinsfan34]

Agree with everyone else...cryptic, but also because it seems it's not his decision.

 

May was lights out. He's actually outpitched Meyer this year. Both those 'kids' are 24...going on 25...not sure how much longer they need to stew in the minors...until 29..maybe 30... (sarcasm)

[Kwak]

While all eyes are on Kevin Correia tonight as he goes up against the Red Sox and hoping to protect his spot in the Twins rotation.....at the same time, Trevor May goes up against the PawSox, that is, the AAA farm club of Boston, Pawtucket Red Sox. While Correia will have his hands full in Fenway, May will be dealing with 3 very tough customers at the top of the PawSox order, Mookie Betts, a Top 100 MLB prospect, and who appears to have been an absolute steal in the 2011 draft in the 5th round, was recently promoted from AA, and appears to be very close to big league promotion. It doesn't get any easier for May, as Shane Victorino and Will Middlebrooks, both on rehab assignments, are batting #2 and #3.

 

Meanwhile, Mike Berardino notes that Rochester has a "TBD" listed as the starter for Thursday's game. Implications? Samuel Deduno is scheduled to start for the Twins, while it's Logan Darnell's turn for Rochester. Time will only tell what develops here.

 

Gardy was "pressed on the matter" of the pitching success in Rochester, the process involved in pulling the trigger and what it might mean for the near future of the MN Twins:

 

 

http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/06/16/twinsights-sifting-for-clues-in-the-twins-rotation-mystery/

 

1. Given tonight's result I think we should mute criticism of Correira for awhile.

 

2. Gardenhire statement about Rochester throws a lot of cold water on all of those

posts concerning "...learning to hit (or pitch) at Rochester." The competition level

is deemed "too far apart" to verify readiness for MLB.

 

3. There is more than just results in the decision to promote players to the Twins.

No clarification was given about said decision process.

 

4. Trevor May's season (to date) indicates that though Worley failed for the Twins,

the book on the Revere trade "isn't closed yet".

[jorgenswest]

Agree with everyone else...cryptic, but also because it seems it's not his decision.

 

May was lights out. He's actually outpitched Meyer this year. Both those 'kids' are 24...going on 25...not sure how much longer they need to stew in the minors...until 29..maybe 30... (sarcasm)

 

Rochester had Gibson go high pitch counts in at least 3 starts last year. He didn't have the same velocity when he came to Minnesota. Another reason to call him up. The two may not be related. Gibson was also coming off injury which should have been a reason to have him on a limit.

[adjacent]

“When he decides they’re ready to do this, he will make that decision more than I will. You know what I mean? There’s way more to it than what’s just black and white and right out in front. There’s a lot involved, and I think you know what all those things are.”

This one is clear: They pay those big fat contracts to these guys, they want them to pitch (well, Deduno may be the exception, but Gardy selected Deduno, so he may get a little bit more of a chance here)

[jokin]

1. Given tonight's result I think we should mute criticism of Correira for awhile.

 

2. Gardenhire statement about Rochester throws a lot of cold water on all of those

posts concerning "...learning to hit (or pitch) at Rochester." The competition level

is deemed "too far apart" to verify readiness for MLB.

 

3. There is more than just results in the decision to promote players to the Twins.

No clarification was given about said decision process.

 

4. Trevor May's season (to date) indicates that though Worley failed for the Twins,

the book on the Revere trade "isn't closed yet".

 

1) No question, after 2 decent starts, Correia has bought himself some more starts here.

 

2) This goes both ways. Why are they looking for "consistency" if the competition makes it not worth evaluating to begin with?

 

3) Yes. This is the "mystery" part in this whole affair.

 

4) Off-topic. Why do you keep bringing this up? FYI- The debate in the Worley thread is about Worley, not about Revere, not about May, only about Worley.

[Brandon]

Could the mystery part be sneaking Deduno through waivers since he is out of options?

 

I think the Twins would like to keep whoever is ultimately replaced up here.

[ashbury]

Gardy's not the most articulate guy, but he's not a dope either. He went the long way around to say that at levels below the majors, you have to blend the stats of what actually happens with the judgements of the coaches who are watching the individual pitches. If the pitcher is making "his" pitches over and over all the while with good deception, and if the batter is laying off the pitches in the dirt while taking a good swing at the ones he should handle, then the coach/manager down there will report that, and they are ready. Stats that are (potentially) built up by taking advantage of those opponents who execute correctly less often, count for less.

 

(Not all that different in spirit from stats like BABIP and xFIP at the major league level, but with a visual element added.)

 

At least, that's my take.

[Seth Stohs]

My thoughts as I read that is he's saying that the jump from AAA to MLB is huge, and that they have to look beyond the stats to determine who is really ready to succeed in the big leagues.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

120 pitches-I know Bert would be happy, but any thoughts on this?

I'd rather it was at the big league club, but a good thing overall

[kdrupp09]

When is the latest the Twins could make an announcement about calling up Darnell to start Thursday? Does it have to be down Wednesday or could they wait until Thursday and make the move?

[TKGuy]

I beleive May has shown he is ready. The biggest thing he has done has really cut down on his walks and he has been able to get deep into games.

[ashbury]

My thoughts as I read that is he's saying that the jump from AAA to MLB is huge, and that they have to look beyond the stats to determine who is really ready to succeed in the big leagues.

 

There's a jump from AAA to majors, no question, but I'm not sure it's much if any bigger than the jump from high-A to AA or from AA to AAA. At least, my impression is that if (in the aggregate) you move AA players to AAA in the same season they lose roughly .100 of OPS points, and about the same figure applies to going from AAA to majors. I don't have any studies to point to, and maybe there are newer studies than when I formed this opinion.

 

The second half of your comment seems pretty congruent with what I was saying.

 

Yesterday I left out what I also meant to say, that Gardy's first paragraph could be construed as a rambling version of "don't mess with a guy's career by depending on Small Sample Size". Who knew Gardy was such a statistician!

[PseudoSABR]

Mike Berardino @MikeBerardino · 1h

TBD RT @adam__beck: @MikeBerardino @RocRedWings Does this mean that Pino will be starting in place of Deduno on Thursday?

 

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Mike Berardino @MikeBerardino · 1h

LHP Sean Gilmartin (7-3, 3.13) promoted from New Britain to @RocRedWings. Starts tonight vs. Pawtucket in place of Yohan Pino (9-1, 1.92).

 

 

 

 

[PseudoSABR]

Pino isn't on the 40-man, so I assume Pelfrey is moved to the 60 DL; if indeed they are starting Pino instead of Deduno.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Pino isn't on the 40-man, so I assume Pelfrey is moved to the 60 DL; if indeed they are starting Pino instead of Deduno.

 

Seth's article says this:

 

We’ve been informed via Chris Fee that Sean Gilmartin has been called up to the Red Wings and will start on Tuesday. Yohan Pino will now start on Wednesday. Alex Meyer has been pushed to Thursday. Logan Darnell follows Meyer in the Red Wings rotation. Trevor May pitched on Monday night, and Kris Johnson pitched on Sunday.

 

Sounds like Pino is just getting bumped back?

 

If Deduno starts Thursday, they could skip him with their off day next Monday and not need that spot again until Saturday June 28.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I struggle to believe the Twins would roll out a guy for 8.1 innings and 120 pitches without him getting the call, especially a guy that's already on the 40 man roster.

 

Then again, this wouldn't be the first time the team did something that confused the hell out of me.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Rochester looks like they are in a brutal stretch of games. No off days between June 11 and July 14, with two doubleheaders in there (including one this coming Saturday). 34 games in 32 days.

 

It would not surprise me if they went with a 6 man rotation, or at least kept 6 starters on staff for awhile (if Pino slides back to the pen next week).

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

120 pitches-I know Bert would be happy, but any thoughts on this?

 

This is an interesting piece of evidence. I don't know if it amounts to much in the big picture, or on the organization philosophy, or conflicting philosophies, but it might. Reminiscent of Gibson's complete games in AAA last year, signalling an imminent call up? When was the last time Gardy let a guy throw 120 pitches?

[TRex]

When was the last time Gardy let a guy throw 120 pitches?

 

When was the last time that a pitcher cruised into the 9th with a 2 hit shutout?