Official 2014 Draft Day Thread, Day 1

[2wins87]

The strength of this draft still seems to be high school pitching. Maybe the best course of action is to play to the pool's strength, and take the best high school arm available at 5, rather than targeting specific profiles.

 

Later in the draft where you have less clear distinctions between players this might make sense. But you can be sure the front office will have a clear preference between Kolek, Gordon, Nola, Jackson and anyone else they might be considering at #5. When you have a pick as high as #5 you take the guy that you believe is the most talented and worry about things like strength of the draft and organizational need later.

[twinkiesfan11]

Quick list of pitchers drafted top 5 who have either busted or failed to live up to expectations IMO

 

2009: Matt Hobgood

2008: Brian Matusz

2007: Daniel Moskos

2006: Greg Reynolds, Brad Lincoln, arguably Brandon Morrow. Side Note, Andrew Miller also drafted 6th

2005: None Drafted

2004: Phillip Humber, Jeff Niemann, Mark Rogers. Side Note - Jeremy Sowers drafted 6th

2003: Kyle Sleeth, Tim Staufer

[Mike Sixel]

Rodon, Aiken, Gordon, Touki, Newcomb, Jackson, Kolek.....that is my preference, acknowledging fully itis based on reading scouting reports and not having seen anyone play. I understand it is hard to get elite pitchers outside the draft. It is also hard to get elite SS, period. And a hitter plays five times as many games as a pitcher.......

[ashbury]

With not a lot of prior thought and thus basing my views on the likely groupthink alluded to above, I'll list them this way: Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, Gordon, Jackson. Whichever one of these is left after the earlier picks, take him; if there's two, go in the order I listed (which might not be the order they actually go). Will be fun watching the process develop this afternoon.

[ashbury]

And a hitter plays five times as many games as a pitcher.......

 

And a pitcher has about five times the impact in the game that he is in...

[twinkiesfan11]

Aiken, Gordon, Jackson, Nola, Rodon, Newcomb, Kolek for me.

 

Rodon seems to have been abused a bit with his college workload. I have nightmares of him being the pick, signing late, being used very sparingly through the end of the year and then blowing out his elbow next spring and not returning until early to mid 2016.

 

Kolek scares me

[jaspatrick]

I find Kolek's possible tumble interesting. He has been pegged top three for quite awhile, now Law has him going #8. I'm not worried about possible TJ surgery because his throws so hard. Is it the control or secondary stuff that is at the root of this?

 

I'm a Gordon over Jackson guy just because I see us and most other organizations quickly moving him to RF, which means to be an all-star he would have to hit a ton, where Gordon can contribute in numerous ways (plus D at short, speed, etc.).

[themattsonian]

Aiken, Gordon, Jackson, Nola, Rodon, Newcomb, Kolek for me.

 

Rodon seems to have been abused a bit with his college workload. I have nightmares of him being the pick, signing late, being used very sparingly through the end of the year and then blowing out his elbow next spring and not returning until early to mid 2016.

 

Kolek scares me

 

Don't be scared. The dude throws gaaaasssssss. My order: Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, Gordon, Jackson, Newcomb, Nola

[tobi0040]

And a pitcher has about five times the impact in the game that he is in...

 

I have tried making this point before and am surprised you still hear the every day argument. Every play is primarily batter vs. pitcher. So a starting pitcher that pitches 7 innings is in on 39% of the plays (7 / 18), versus the hitter at 5.5% of the plays (1 / 18)

[themattsonian]

I find Kolek's possible tumble interesting. He has been pegged top three for quite awhile, now Law has him going #8. I'm not worried about possible TJ surgery because his throws so hard. Is it the control or secondary stuff that is at the root of this?

 

I'm a Gordon over Jackson guy just because I see us and most other organizations quickly moving him to RF, which means to be an all-star he would have to hit a ton, where Gordon can contribute in numerous ways (plus D at short, speed, etc.).

 

Is there really any hard evidence that proves high mph guys are more prone to having TJ surgery? I understand that the recent pitchers in the news that have had it were hard throwers, but for every one of those there's a Kyle Gibson and Wimmers that aren't hard throwers that have had TJ as well. I think it has more to do with workload and arm action/angle (though I do not claim to be a doctor). I think we're eventually going to see clubs lean towards HS pitchers because they've had smaller workloads, and their mechanics will be easier to adjust at a younger age. I think there's less risk of Kolek blowing out than there is of Rodon. Rodon was throwing 140-150 pitch outings at NC State, and he's been doing it for 3 extra years. Just my 2 cents.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I have tried making this point before and am surprised you still hear the every day argument. Every play is primarily batter vs. pitcher. So a starting pitcher that pitches 7 innings is in on 39% of the plays (7 / 18), versus the hitter at 5.5% of the plays (1 / 18)

 

Sometimes I'd really like to sticky quotes like this. Starting pitching is the most important position on the field, and in my opinion it isn't close. I'm not saying draft a pitcher if someone like Jackson is the best available at 5, but this once every 5 games thing should not be the reason to not draft or pay money for good pitching.

 

I'd note that the starting pitcher that goes 7 innings will also see a very similar amount plate appearances as a hitter over 5 days... and that pitcher has far more control over the outcome than than the hitter.

[markos]

With the (most likely purely posturing) rumors that Jackson, Aiken and Rodon are all slipping because they are demanding top-2 money, would anyone spend the $6 Million to sign one if they dropped to the Twins, but then have spend the rest of the draft picking cheap players? Personally, I don't think that the gap between those three players and the next tier (Newcomb, Touissant, et. al ) is large enough to justify that kind of move. Does anyone feel differently?

[cmb0252]

Personal top 25:

 

1. Aiken

2. Kolek

3. Rodon

4. Jackson

5. Gordon

6. Holmes

7. Touki

8. Newcomb

9. Nola

10. Zimmer

11. Pentecost

12. Derek Hill

13. Conforto

14. Turner

15. Beede

16. Freeland (if not for health rumors he would be a few spots higher)

17. Monte Harrison

18. Hoffman

19. Luis Ortiz

20. Gatewood

21. Sean Reid-Foley

22. Kyle Schwarber

23. Spencer Adams

24. Derek Fisher

25. Braxton Davidson

[InfraRen]

Keith Law chat just started (http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/50718). First question Twins related, which he sort of dodges, but emphasizes Twins/Gordon pick:

 

Kirk (The TC)

 

Extreme "What if" question - Twins have been very high on Nola and especially Gordon. You have Nola going #3 and others mention the Cubs at #4 possibly going after Gordon. In that scenario, who do you see the Twins going for? Kolek?

Klaw (1:06 PM)

I don't think the Cubs take Gordon. He's not going before 5, and the Twins will take him there.

[cmb0252]

Crawford's last mock:

 

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/06/the-final-mock-ever/

[Lonestar]

Best rumor of the day - Manual at BA: "One scouting source in the top 10 believed both San Diego prep players, Aiken and Rancho Bernardo’s Alex Jackson, were falling to the back of the top 10 due to signability questions." If Aiken was there at #5 ... Anyway, Manual's mock has us taking Gordon.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mock-draft-5-0-aiken-looks-like-no-1/

Aiken will never get more money than he will get this year. At least it's not worth the risk.

[tobi0040]

Keith Law chat just started. First question Twins related, which he sort of dodges, but emphasizes Twins/Gordon pick:

 

Kirk (The TC)

 

 

 

Extreme "What if" question - Twins have been very high on Nola and especially Gordon. You have Nola going #3 and others mention the Cubs at #4 possibly going after Gordon. In that scenario, who do you see the Twins going for? Kolek?

Klaw (1:06 PM)

 

 

 

I don't think the Cubs take Gordon. He's not going before 5, and the Twins will take him there.

 

I bet Nola goes 6-8

[InfraRen]

More KLAW chat tidbits:

 

Fred (Austin, TX)

 

It sounds like you see far more upside In Nick Gordon than his brother

Klaw (1:09 PM)

 

No question.

 

----------------------------------

 

Andrew (MPLS) [via mobile]

 

Put on your front office hat. If you were the Twins wouldn't you have to take Kolek if he falls to you? You can never have enough power arms with upside!

Klaw (1:10 PM)

 

"Have to?" No. I like Kolek but he's a long-term prospect, not a quick mover.

 

-------------------------------------

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd be a happy man if the Sox took Nola at 3.

[InfraRen]

I'd be a happy man if the Sox took Nola at 3.

Ditto

[Twins Twerp]

Just like Keith Law to not answer a question and make the asker feel like an idiot.

[twinsfan34]

Keith Law's mock today:

 

Twins taking Gordon...

 

Analysis: This is the lock of the draft. Unless Brady Aiken gets here, which he won't, they're taking Gordon.

 

And that's with Koleck still available. Aiken, Rodon, Nola, Conforto...Twins taking Gordon.

[tobi0040]

Just like Keith Law to not answer a question and make the asker feel like an idiot.

 

Or to answer and insult the person asking the quesiton.

[biswrest]

With Newcomb picking up some steam, who has a good breakdown on his scouting report?

[Thrylos]

My top 8

Jackson

Aiken

Kolek

Newcomb

Conforto

Hoffman

Schwarber

Nola.

 

Not big on Gordon mainly because of contant and discipline and some vague character issues here and there.

[InfraRen]

Heyo:

Klaw (1:44 PM)

I think I answered this earlier, but I did hear this afternoon that the Twins could switch to Kolek from Gordon if both are there - I don't believe that they WILL, but that it's not a slam-dunk as I indicated in the mock.

 

Also:

 

Chris Crawford @CrawfordChrisV

Think the pick would be Jackson. MT @InfraRen in the scenario Gordon/Nola are gone by Twins pick, do you think they'd take Kolek?

[Willihammer]

With Newcomb picking up some steam, who has a good breakdown on his scouting report?

 

Junior at Hartford. He gets comps to Jon Lester. 6'5 240, lefthanded, throws 90-94 according to the MLB draft board. Slider, Curve, changeup. He had an impressive run (30 innings?) without allowing an ER this spring.

[tobi0040]

Junior at Hartford. He gets comps to Jon Lester. 6'5 240, lefthanded, throws 90-94 according to the MLB draft board. Slider, Curve, changeup. He had an impressive run (30 innings?) without allowing an ER this spring.

 

FB 50-65 SL 55-70 Change 40-50. Command 40-50.

 

He gets dinged a bit because he came on late and does not face top competition. But if you buy the 20-80 scores I would love the pick

 

Love the comp to Lester and he looks like Lester.

 

Some video

 

http://metsminors.net/2014-mlb-draft-profile-sean-newcomb/

 

Write Up

 

http://www.mymlbdraft.com/2014/mlb-draft-profiles/Sean-Newcomb

[InfraRen]

[h=6]J (Toronto)[/h]

 

So why is Kolek #3 on your board?

[h=6]Klaw (2:02 PM)

[/h]

 

Because he's 6'6" and throws 100 mph with a chance for a 60 or 70 slider. He looks totally uncoached to me.

[nicksaviking]

This stuff about Gordon being a near "lock" for the Twins seems a bit odd. Is there a team with tighter lips than the Twins? No one is reporting any worthwhile quotes from the front office. It all seems like conjecture due to the Twins heavy presence at Gordon's games, and conjecture is not a "lock." Also to consider, Gordon played 2 1/2 hours away from the team's home base at Ft. Myers. It stands to reason they saw him play a lot.

 

I wouldn't be upset with Gordon, but I'd probably be disappointed if they passed up Kolek, who by the way the Twins also had scouts constantly follow, including Deron Johnson.