The over/under on Correia

[drivlikejehu]

Correia has negative trade value (no one would pay him his current salary, assuming they would roster him at all). He has no significance to the future of the club. I don't really care if they give him another start or two but I would have tried to trade him in the off-season, and having failed that I would have seen enough by now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm also of the opinion that it's best to DFA Correia and move on. This team is in borderline contention and this fills two needs:

 

1. Clears up roster space for a guy who will be with the team long-term

 

2. That guy will probably be a better pitcher than Kevin Correia

 

It's good for both the short- and long-term.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm also of the opinion that it's best to DFA Correia and move on. This team is in borderline contention and this fills two needs:

 

1. Clears up roster space for a guy who will be with the team long-term

 

2. That guy will probably be a better pitcher than Kevin Correia

 

It's good for both the short- and long-term.

 

This is all spot-on and it was just as spot-on two months ago. It's a shame we've had to endure 8 months of this dreck.

[diehardtwinsfan]

why not just cut him? Why put him in the bullpen? AAA has several RP ready, and they already have too many RP.

 

To be clear, I think a DFA is the correct answer, but I think there's 6 million reasons why they won't just cut him.... They will try to trade him first.... and I doubt they will have takers.

[nicksaviking]

To be clear, I think a DFA is the correct answer, but I think there's 6 million reasons why they won't just cut him.... They will try to trade him first.... and I doubt they will have takers.

 

I also doubt they'll cut him though they should. I will give them a pass and say they will keep him not because of the money, but instead because they are terrified beyond reason of not having enough starting pitching options.

 

They've surpsided me before and cut bait with Jason Marquis, Mike Lamb and lord knows how many washed up vets they gave MLB contracts to over the years. But their sole obsession this off season was to make sure they had more starters than they needed.

 

Still wouldn't make much sense though when you consider Correia almost certainly isn't doing anything that a Logan Darnell, Scott Diamond or Sean Gilmartin could do. At some point there really isn't any difference between a terrible performance from a disappointing vet and a terrible performance from a young guy who has no business being in the majors.

[cmathewson]

I think he'll have a taker or two for a low-level fringe prospect. If not, they'll DFA him after the All-Star game.

[cmathewson]

I'm also of the opinion that it's best to DFA Correia and move on. This team is in borderline contention and this fills two needs:

 

1. Clears up roster space for a guy who will be with the team long-term

 

2. That guy will probably be a better pitcher than Kevin Correia

 

It's good for both the short- and long-term.

 

This is what they should do, but I will believe it when I see it. This acting GM is a poster child for the sunk cost fallacy.

[Paul Pleiss]

Kevin Correia is a likely candidate for a phantom groin injury, or some other ghostly nonexistent injury to put him on the DL. I can't imagine him staying on the roster with an ERA anywhere near 7. May and others down at AAA could do at least that poorly, while getting needed experience and providing future value

[Outlier]

I expected a move to be made if he struggled last night, and I'm a little surprised nothing has happened. He hasn't pitched well this year, but at least the first few starts he averaged 6+ innings; now it's closer to 4. If for no other sake than that of the bullpen, it's a shame if he gets another start.

And for the record, I haven't been a KC hater. When he signed, I had no issue with 2 years. Oh, what a fool I am.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The Twins had no reason to expect Mike Pelfrey to start throwing at 90mph with no control. He finished out the second half of last season throwing 92+ with decent control.

 

There was no reason to expect Mike Pelfrey to be this bad or to throw this slowly based on how he performed last season outside of "I hate Mike Pelfrey".

 

Mike Pelfrey, at his best, is a decent back-of-the-rotation guy. Teams need those guys to fill out a rotation, though the second year was baffling (and that's my problem with the entire situation). If the Twins signed Mike Pelfrey and sat on their hands, I would have been furious. They didn't do that. They picked up a decent #2/3, a reclamation project with big upside, and then they picked up Pelfrey. Considering their rotation woes last season and how many pitchers they ran through the rotation, I won't criticize them for being overly cautious and padding the back of the rotation a bit to prevent running out multiple AAAA guys at once.

 

But the second year shouldn't have been offered. It just shouldn't.

 

Anyway, back to my point about assuming incompetence from the front office with trite statements. It's not clever and it doesn't add anything to the conversation. Instead of moaning about the front office's supposed incompetence, why not offer a solution for what you'd like to see happen? Isn't that pretty obviously the point of this thread in the first place?

I got caught up in the "He's 2 years removed from TJ surgery; they've invested while he's injured, time to reap the benefits" fallacy. I was wrong, as was the FO.

 

There's nothing wrong with taking a risk if you are willing to accept the consequences. It was a risk to sign Pelf tom 2 year contract. Nothing wrong with it, if you're willing to accept that it was a mistake and move on. Eat the contract, it's 11 mil, a big chunk of $, but not insurmountable.

 

the same with Correia. He was the most reliable pitcher on the roster last year, and the contract looked good. This season, not so much.

 

So you gambled and lost, nothing wrong with it if you

"know when to hold'em

know when to fold'em

know when to walk away

and know when to run"

 

time to fold regarding Correia and Pelfrey

[Thrylos]

Gruyere is one of my favorite cheeses ....

 

Guerrier is not one of my favorite pitchers.

 

Ditto

And I do not understand the analogy.

The cheese is Grew-air and the pitcher is Goo-rear. Close but not cigar.

[Thrylos]

As far as the original question goes about Correia's over and under: He is a pitch to contact type pitcher (I know, what a revelation.) And the perceived performance of these types is BABIP susceptible: If you have .350ish BABIP so far (Correia), you are awful, if you have .182 BABIP the last 365 days (Thielbar) you are great.

 

It is what it is and the choices people make. Still, I'd rather see May up soon.

[Guest USAFChief]

I'll take the over.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 more starts in a row that are "quality starts" might save his job. That's all he gets.

[Heimer]

When is the super 2 deadline?

[Brock Beauchamp]

When is the super 2 deadline?

 

Usually some time between June 5-15th, I believe.

[Heimer]

Ok May will be up after that point. As for Correia thanks for being our best pitcher last year but your just not good.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I expected a move to be made if he struggled last night, and I'm a little surprised nothing has happened. He hasn't pitched well this year, but at least the first few starts he averaged 6+ innings; now it's closer to 4. If for no other sake than that of the bullpen, it's a shame if he gets another start.

 

Actually, Correia might be an upgrade for the pen too. Tonkin has promise but has been pretty useless this year, both in terms of his performance and his apparent role. He should be in AAA anyway. Swarzak has been pretty shaky too. We lost Deduno to the rotation, and our only reinforcement has been another shaky performer in Guerrier.

 

I have no idea what promises were made to Correia, though -- I recall he didn't like being demoted from the Pittsburgh rotation a few years back, and given recent roster moves, it would not surprise me in the least if the Twins promised Correia a starting role.

 

(All of the above applies the same to Pelfrey too, whenever he's "healthy" I guess.)

[Brock Beauchamp]

If healthy, I have more faith in Pelfrey becoming a bullpen arm than Correia. At least the guy throws hard and in the pen, it won't hurt him so badly to rely on a single pitch.

[cmathewson]

Not to mention that Meyer is refining a new pitch and, unsurprisingly, is struggling with it.

 

Now is not the time to call up Alex Meyer. Let him develop the new pitch against AAA hitting.

 

I guess I don't see how he's struggling. Three out of the last four starts have been dominant. Maybe you mean he's been struggling to control it. But how important is change-up control? If he throws 10 of them in the dirt for Ks over a 100-pitch outing, I'm fine with that. You don't usually try to throw strikes with it. He's throwing it 40 times a game to get the feel for it, and guys are laying off. So he's walking more guys. Still, he had four base runners in five innings last night, all on walks.

[kab21]

We're going to have KC for at least two more months. He's going to throw 2 solid games and buy himself more time to rile up the TD board.

 

I really don't have a problem with the Twins picking up 1 guy like KC or Pelfrey to fill out the rotation. The problem is that they have 2 of them. They also picked up KC immediately in FA 2 years ago and they signed Pelfrey when there were still very good options available in FA. I remember a thread where several people on here believed that the Twins couldn't pick up Ervin no matter how cheap he was because Pelfrey had the last spot. Ervin has been awesome. Pelfrey not so much.

[TheLeviathan]

I remember a thread where several people on here believed that the Twins couldn't pick up Ervin no matter how cheap he was because Pelfrey had the last spot. Ervin has been awesome. Pelfrey not so much.

 

And that argument has nothing to do with performance and everything to do with the team and how it structures itself.

 

The Twins boxed themselves in with signing both guys, that's the problem.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If healthy, I have more faith in Pelfrey becoming a bullpen arm than Correia. At least the guy throws hard and in the pen, it won't hurt him so badly to rely on a single pitch.

 

I should have clarified, Correia would just be more of a long/mop-up man. Still, that gives Swarzak a little more help in that role, or hopefully frees Swarzak for more valuable long relief appearances if he returns to 2013 form. Right now it feels like we are patching together too many short relievers at times (albeit largely in relief of Correia!). Tonkin in particular seems to serve no great function at the moment, neither setup nor long guy.

 

Pelfrey, in theory, could be more a setup guy, with health and velocity.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I guess I don't see how he's struggling. Three out of the last four starts have been dominant. Maybe you mean he's been struggling to control it. But how important is change-up control? If he throws 10 of them in the dirt for Ks over a 100-pitch outing, I'm fine with that. You don't usually try to throw strikes with it. He's throwing it 40 times a game to get the feel for it, and guys are laying off. So he's walking more guys. Still, he had four base runners in five innings last night, all on walks.

 

If AAA guys are laying off the pitch, there's just about a zero chance a MLB hitter will swing at the offering unless his name is Delmon Young.

 

And I'm not sure why you think it's unimportant to get a changeup over the plate. It's not a slider, where you trick the hitter into thinking it's a strike as it dives off the plate. I think it's a must to get a changeup over the plate in case the hitter doesn't swing (which in turn forces the hitter to swing at it if he fears it will get over the plate for a strike call).

[kab21]

If AAA guys are laying off the pitch, there's just about a zero chance a MLB hitter will swing at the offering unless his name is Delmon Young.

 

And I'm not sure why you think it's unimportant to get a changeup over the plate. It's not a slider, where you trick the hitter into thinking it's a strike as it dives off the plate. I think it's a must to get a changeup over the plate in case the hitter doesn't swing (which in turn forces the hitter to swing at it if he fears it will get over the plate for a strike call).

 

The trick is getting hitters to think it will be a strike and that might take time to master (in AAA) depending where he is at with the pitch.

 

I honestly wouldn't have a problem if they called up Meyer tomorrow. He's a 24 yr old college starter with 2 successful seasons of pro experience and pitched in AA last year. I'm also not going to be concerned if he spends 2 more months in the minors and gets called up in July.

[kab21]

And that argument has nothing to do with performance and everything to do with the team and how it structures itself.

 

The Twins boxed themselves in with signing both guys, that's the problem.

 

Yes.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The trick is getting hitters to think it will be a strike and that might take time to master (in AAA) depending where he is at with the pitch.

 

Absolutely. That's my point.

 

I honestly wouldn't have a problem if they called up Meyer tomorrow. He's a 24 yr old college starter with 2 successful seasons of pro experience and pitched in AA last year. I'm also not going to be concerned if he spends 2 more months in the minors and gets called up in July.

 

Same here. If the Twins think he's ready, I'll defer to their judgment. They get to see the kid pitch and talk to him every day.

 

I simply think the likelihood of them calling him up as he's developing a new pitch is very low.

[Brandon]

The Twins are 18 - 12 when Pelfry and Corriea do not get a decision. They are 1-8. If the Twins went 4-5 instead, we are in the wild card lead and only a few games behind Detroit.

 

If Escobar is the solution at SS

and the Twins decide to platoon Hicks and Fuld in CF so as not to be too big a hole, that essentially puts the Twins 1 solid starting pitcher away from competing for the playoffs.

[jokin]

Absolutely. That's my point.

 

 

 

Same here. If the Twins think he's ready, I'll defer to their judgment. They get to see the kid pitch and talk to him every day.

 

I simply think the likelihood of them calling him up as he's developing a new pitch is very low.

 

Yeah. This is one instance where Gardy can't get his way, and implement his dream scenario from Spring Training, of Meyer in a RP role. Anthony put the big damper on the chances for any Meyer appearances with the Twins any time soon in his recent interview. And because of Anthony's now-public pronouncements on Meyer's inning limitations and evidenced in their extreme precautionary measures in pulling Meyer out of last night's game after 5 no-hit innings, I'm not sure if he gets the call-up this year at all, unless massive physical breakdowns take place, or both Correia and Pelfrey are no longer options on or around July 31.

[Shane Wahl]

Trevor May should be the guy. Absolutely. It might be Darnell though.