Minnesota Twins Talk

Just wondering what everyone was thinking in regards to the bullpen as Spring Training winds down (man, it went fast this year!). Does Kinley have a chance to make the club? Are the jobs of Hildenberger and Duffy still safe? Is there any hope for Phil Hughes? Could Moya make the club going north? Any other potential surprise cuts or additions?

I did some math. Assuming i) the Pythagorean theory of winning percentage, and ii) the Twins score the same number of runs in '18 as they did in '17 (788), then a .05 (not .5) decline in ERA results in additional win. Last year, the Twins' ERA was 4.59. So, if you want to forecast this years team ERA with all the additions, then one can forecast win totals. Examples- if all the additions result in a decline from 4.59 to 4.54, the model predicts one more win. If predicted ERA drops to 4.39, four more wins. ERA of 4.19, eight more wins or roughly 92 wins. By the way, the above are approximations. If your a math nerd, I'd be happy to provide math details…

I don't want this post to be about blaming or defending Jorge but about what could be solutions to a problem. I did a little looking and found a few tid bits about supplements that give me a little more sympathy for Jorge. First is this article. Sounds like we all need to pay more careful attention to what's going into our bodies. https://www.labrada.com/blog/labrada-news/are-there-steroids-in-your-supplements/ I also found a comment that I cannot verify the validity on which stated that players have a list of companies they are encouraged to buy supplements from. That's a good idea... Here's my thoughts based on this little information I've found. First: Minor le…

Not exactly promising. The Twins may need that 5th starter longer than they expect. https://www.twincities.com/2018/03/18/ervin-santana-still-cant-make-a-fist-or-grip-a-baseball-post-surgery/

I had seen the schedule before, but it only just dawned on me that the Twins have a 2 week, 13 game home stand starting April 5. Of course, two of those games are scheduled for Puerto Rico (if that is even realistic at this point - latest reports say more than half the island is still without electricity). Regardless, playing 10 days in a row in Minnesota in April sounds optimistic to say the least. Hope for good weather!

Ehire Adrianza has the best glove but his bat will be exposed. He will be Pedro Florimon wi5h the bat against right handed pitching. A switch hitter, he tried batting right handed against righties last year and went 0-12 according to BR splits. Eduardo Escobar has the better bat. His glove has been shaky and over his career he hasn’t hit right handed pitching as well. He might step up defensively with consistent play. Erick Aybar can’t hit or field anymore. I think they need to release him at the first sign of a better option on the waiver wire. As a short term stop gap if Sano was suspended it might have worked. This is not short term. Nick Gordon could really help…

Guessing Aybar now makes the team?

Baseball Prospectus editor Aaron Gleeman asked me to participate in a conversation about the upcoming Minnesota Twins season and, to both of our surprise, it was very optimistic. (So much so that I'm now wondering what the hell is wrong with me.) Check out our expectations and feel free to share yours on this thread.

Mike Berardino explored the connection between Falvey and Cressey Sports Performance in yesterday's PP. Seven players in the Twins organization are mentioned or interviewed, including Lynn and LoMo. The most interesting part of the piece is about Tyler Kinley. From Eric Cressey: “I think it was a matter of finding himself [Kinley] and trusting his body to be healthy,” Cressey said. “We talked a lot about teaching him how to move more efficiently, and that made him a lot more durable. All of a sudden he goes out and he’s hitting 100 mph on the radar gun.” A few outings into what became 13 scoreless appearances in the Dominican for Kinley, Cressey contacted Falvey with …

Let's see those autographs from failed prospects, sub-par MLB players, and gimmick players in your Twins' fandom! My most regrettable autograph...

Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Grossman, Granite. Who is next? Is LaMonte Wade this year’s Granite? Adrianza or Escobar? Watching Mitch Garver play LF Saturday was not encouraging. It doesn’t look as if he has made any progress since last year. He can’t be an option. He can’t read the ball off the bat. Is there any near major league ready depth in the minors? Do we trust any of the guys that are in spring on minor league contracts? The Twins position players were very healthy last year. Few reinforcements were needed from a Rochester. Can we count on that again?

Don't see any link on MLBTR so not sure if they're breaking this. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/03/twins-acquire-jake-cave-designate-kennys-vargas.html The Twins are trading Luis Gil who's still in the Dominican League. Cave is another lefty outfielder, but I guess he can play all three positions. The Twins have DFA'd Vargas to make room. I'd guess/hope Cave has options in which case it's basically a swap of Cave for the out of options Vargas as far as the roster goes. His left handedness does not appear to be an immediate fit so this must be viewed as a transaction of opportunity rather than need. If he has options it probably is not going to impact Robbie Gr…

The Cincinnati Reds just signed rising star 3rd basemen Eugenio Suarez to a seven-year, $66 million contract extension through the 2024 season, with a $15 million club option for the '25 season. The deal buys out his remaining three years of arbitration eligibility (including '18) and four years of potential free agency. https://www.mlb.com/news/reds-sign-eugenio-suarez-to-extension/c-268849158 Suarez, 26, batted .260/.367/.461 with 26 home runs and 82 RBIs while establishing career highs in runs (87), homers, RBIs, walks (84), slugging and OPS in 156 games last season. Can/should the Twins use this as a template for extensions for Sano or Buxton? Not sure that…

I don't know if others saw this but I thought this article over at Twinkie Town was an interesting read. It looks at the Odorizzi deal and the deadline deals of last season and how the Twins used cash to either increase the quality of prospects they received or decerase the quality of prospects they traded away. Probably not enough data points to call this a trend, but an interesting strategy to think about. https://www.twinkietown.com/2018/3/14/17118586/the-twins-are-cashing-in-with-their-trades-derek-falvey-thad-levine-jaime-garcia-jake-odorizzi

There are a handful of franchise records that could be broken in 2018. While you follow the exciting Twins season, you should follow these exciting record chases as well! Career Hits against Lefties As Joe Mauer enters his 15th season with the Twins, he is starting to approach some accumulation records. While he’s still 900+ hits away from that franchise record, he is within striking distance of the franchise record of hits against left-handed pitchers. Mauer needs to collect 54 hits against lefties this year to pass Carew’s record mark. While he's had just 40 such hits last year, he’s had 5 seasons in his career with 54+ against southpaws. Unfortunately, the most re…

Reassigned to AAA: Stephen Gonsalves, Adalberto Mejia, Aaron Slegers Reassigned to AA: Fernando Romero Probably not enough room for Romero at AAA, yet, still just a call up away. A little surprised about Mejia (not a great Spring thus far though.) However, with the addition of Lynn, the 4-Man rotation will be: Berrios Odorizzi Lynn Gibson Hughes in long relieve/mop up. With Berrios set to pitch in Puerto Rico, Lynn not quite stretched out, and Odorizzi having some reportedly minor injuries...does Gibson get the Opening Day nod?

Nine of Twelve made this observation that interested me. It is clearly rare to make a significant postseason run without a left handed starting pitcher. I am guessing it is also rare to finish outside of the playoffs without a left handed starting pitcher. Are teams without left handed starters less likely to make the playoffs? In the 2000s, three teams have made it to the world series without a left handed starter (each had one spot start in the season by a lefty). There have 18 such regular season teams with 0 or 1 left handed starts over the season in that time span. Making it through the season without anything more than a single spot start by a lefty is rare.…

Great off-season by the front office. May have plugged some holes on an economical basis. Still have to play the games, but there is more reason for optimism this year than there has been for years. However, and I say this as someone who thinks Ryan needed to go and that the new FO is an improvement, this winter’s signings are not an indication that the new FO is superior to Ryan. For one thing, these types of deals were not available to Terry Ryan. Second, it’s impossible to say that he would not have taken the deals if they had been available. Even without a modern grasp of analytics, Ryan knew baseball well enough to know that Morrison, Lynn and Odorizzi are good bas…

In reviewing Michael Pineda’s stats, I wanted to see if he was giving up more homers in Yankee Stadium than in other parks - and thus might benefit from a change in scenery. Last year, though, it didn’t seem to be the case. Pineda gave up exactly 10 homers at home and on the road. Maybe my theory doesn’t hold water? Looking back further, however, the story changes. In 2016, Pineda gave up 20 homers at Home, and only 7 on the road. In 2016, his split was 16:5. All told, for his career, Pineda has given up homers at home at a rate of 1.48 per 9 innings, whereas on the road, his rate is 1.10. My theory is back - Pineda gives up 34% more home runs at home than on th…

Who is this guy? He is 10 for 20 with 2 homeruns and 8 rbi this spring. Probably no shot to make roster but he looks like he is our spring training MVP.

With the (final?) addition of Lynn, PECOTA projects the Twins to win 83 games and capture the 2nd Wild Card. How many games do you think we’ll win?

The FO has done a nice job this off season in adding some key pieces to the puzzle. However, it still feels like one more signing is coming. I am not good at creating polls-so here is my question in normal thread format: Choose between these three options for a 1 year/$12 million deal A ) Lynn (buying into his stuff and experience) B ) Cobb (buying into his experience in the AL/AL East) C ) Moose (anticipating Sano missing some time and buying into an all-lefty lineup) * I understand they might be more expensive. This is purely hypothetical.

With the signing of Lance Lynn, I expect that Hughes and Sanchez will have to perform very well in the next few weeks to stay with the big league squad. Their likely roles would be long relief and spot starter. My prediction: Only one or neither will survive ST, If they do not stay with the big league squad, Hughes will be waived, nobody will claim him at his current salary - and he'll go to Rochester, Sanchez will be DFAed.- and may possibly negotiate a minor league deal (if he looks good). Barring injury, the ultimate rotation (Santana, Berrios, Lynn, Odorizzi and Gibson) leaves no room for anyone else. Injuries or lousy performances by Kyle Gibson are the o…

He looks pretty good so far. Does he have any chance of breaking camp?

Should be for one year. Mlb traderumors app is source.

Kind of interesting to see this story from Jon Heyman pop up right after the Twins waived J.T. Chargois to mysteriously open up a 40-man roster spot: https://www.fanragsports.com/twins/heyman-could-lance-lynn-be-final-piece-for-twins/ They certainly have the money to spend, and I've sorta felt Lynn's been underrated in free agent SP discussions, but I'm not sure I see him as a fit right now. Thoughts?

1 year 19 million with a team option for a 2nd year 22 million (2.5 million buyout) DO IT.

as today is an off day. You're welcome to ask in this thread, and if I have time I'll respond. But I'd also like to try something else we're testing.... go to this address: https://www.speakpipe.com/twinsdaily and record your question for tonight's Twins Daily Nightly Wrap. I think we only have room for 20 messages, so don't get shut out - record your question and you'll be able to hear it and my response in tonight's podcast. Thanks, John

Interesting article on MLB.com today, ranking the fastest teams in baseball per sprint speed data collected by StatCast. https://www.mlb.com/news/statcast-ranks-mlbs-fastest-teams/c-267809528 Your Minnesota Twins rank #1 !!! Buxton is obviously the cream of the crop, but Polanco, Dozier, Rosario, and Kepler all rank pretty high as well. Another reason this team can be sneaky!

Brian Dozier has stated recently that he looks forward to free agency after the season. What should the Twins do with Dozier at the trade deadline? Is it quite likely they move him if not in contention? If the Twins are in contention, do they move him anyway to get some value before he leaves?