Minnesota Twins Talk

Jay Jaffe looked at the careers of recent retirees Joe Mauer and Chase Utley. He put them up against others at their positions according to his JAWS Hall of Fame formula. Both definitely below in the conversation. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/retiring-mauer-and-utley-both-worthy-of-cooperstown/

How much does it cost (in payroll) to win an extra baseball game? How much should a team expect to spend to win 85, 90, 100 games? I did a few very simple things to attempt to answer that. First I collected payroll data and wins (both from 2018 regular season) from mlb.com Then I calculated the correlation between the two and found it to be just under 39%, which means only around 16% of a team's success could be statistically explained by payroll. If you have studied statistics, the correlation is roughly 40%, so the R-squared is about 16%, or roughly 1/6th. So, what explains the remaining 5/6ths? I don't know, but some obvious candidates would be the number (or …

Our current FO has almost, to the day, been on the job, for 2 years now. And we've seen 2 drafts, 2 off season's of work, changes on the field, changes in the office, changes in milb staffs, manipulation of dollars, trades of those dollars and personnel, FA shots, and now a new manager...and a coaching staff to yet be put in place...after said FO was "saddled" with keeping the existing manager in place. (This is NOT about the merits of Molitor). The coaching staff is not yet in place, the HOT stove is not even warm yet. The 40 man isn't even in place yet! But from TD ownership on down, there have been multiple opinions offered up as to how to build the Twins for 2019 a…

Joe Mauer's press conference just concluded. Holy emotional. Was great to see and watch. And it was very cool that so many people where there. Former teammates like Corey Koskie and Glen Perkins. Twins alumni like Kent Hrbek, Tim Laudner, Jack Morris. Former coaches/managers like Joe Vavra, Ron Gardenhire, Paul Molitor and Tom Kelly. And the GMs, Bill Smith and Terry Ryan, who Mauer was most emotional thanking (other than family). Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Twins/videos/253533108849422/?notif_id=1542042123136660&notif_t=live_video Twitter: Brandon's Periscope: https://www.pscp.tv/w/1BRJjXNVdkVKw

Both Kris Bryant and James Paxton are on the trade market...Bryant under club control for 3 years and Paxton 2. Obviously the price will be high. Who would you rather trade for between these two and Realmuto? Would you empty out the system to trade for 2 of them?

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2019.html Some interesting guesses here. Three big ones for the Twins Marwin Gonzalez – Twins. Four years, $36MM Jeurys Familia – Twins. Three years, $33MM Nelson Cruz – Twins. Two years, $30MM Would be an impressive haul for sure, for a not too bad $100 million.

Free agent Jose Iglesias SS 3 years 21 mil Josh Donaldson 3B 1 year 20 mil Kelvin Herrera RP 1 year 8 mil Jeuris Familia RP 3 year 33 mil Andrew McCutchen RF 2 year 16 mil Trade Byron Buxton to Giants for a package including Tyler Beede, Andrew Suarez. The relationship is so hosed, they have to trade Buxton. C Garver 1B Sano 2B Polanco 3B Donaldson SS Iglesias RF Cutch CF Kepler LF Rosario DH Austin Bench Castro/Astudillo Adrianza Cave Rotation Berrios Gibson Suarez Odorizzi stacked with Mejia Pineda stacked with Gonsalves Bullpen Familia Herrera May Rodgers Reed Moya

I normally wouldn't share a rumor from Reddit as anything substantive, but the user NotPercyChuggs who posted this tip apparently divulged his/her source to the mods and convinced them of its legitimacy: "Joe Mauer to announce retirement; press conference Monday" I've never had much doubt that Mauer was going to hang 'em up, and with respect to the Twins' planning needs I presumed an announcement would be coming any day, so this aligns with my expectations, which is another reason I'm willing to lend it credibility. Stay tuned and we'll post any other news on the subject. Otherwise, we'll see what happens on Monday.

What the heck, it's all for fun anyway, right? I'd like to preface my blueprint with a few points: 1] There may literally be a dozen FA RP on the market who could be considered here, so the names could easily be swapped out here for others and still be viable options and similar parameters. 2] I deliberately stayed away from trades, though I think one or two could take place, as not only are they virtually impossible to predict, but I still believe thjs is a budding team filled with talent yet to be unlocked/realized, still in re-build mode, awaiting a second wave of prospects, but not far from actual contention. Therefore, in my plan, the FO is augmenting the exist…

I totally planned to put together a BluePrint that could almost make it believable that Harper to the Twins could happen His ability to handle 1B occasionally would make him the perfect "Versatility" play with Austin Everyone's favorite trade candidate could be moved for anything knowing Bryce was here to man RF most days Well...Scottie B chose the wrong time to poke fun at MLB and use my favorite team as the butt of his joke His single Twin comment changed everything for me...to which...I focused my attention on the following Total BS BluePrint A Team only Bora$$ could love FREE AGENTS With money to spare and a second Twin to locate I suggest the Pohlad's defend th…

Offseason: Sign Marwin Gonzalez 3y/39M Sign Brian Dozier 1y/8M Sign RP Cody Allen 2 years/20M Sign RP Kelvin Herrera 2 years/20M Total additions by Free Agency - 41M Trade: Send SP Stephen Gonsalves, 1B Lewis Diaz, C Jason Castro, 2B Travis Blankenthorn to Arizona for Zack Grienke and 20M in salary relief (10M each of the next two years) Send OF Trevor Larnoch, SP Blayne Enlow, SP Zack Littell to Texas for 1B/3B/OF Joey Gallo Total financial additions by trade - 17M Total offseason - 58M Roster: (28.9M) Catcher: Garver 600k 1B - Gallo 600k 2B - Dozier 8M 3B - Gonzalez 13M SS - Polanco 600k DH - Sano 3.1M OF - Kepler 3.2M OF - Buxton 1.2M OF - Rosario 5M Bench: Cave, Adr…

2019 Offseason: Signings: Joe Kelly 2yr/$22M Cody Allen 1yr/$12M Nelson Cruz 2yr/$34M Jed Lowrie 3yr/$36M Total—> $104M Trades: (CLE) Yonder Alonso <—> Magill/Cave/Diaz (+1yr/$8M) (SEA) Dee Gordon <—> Hildenberger/Arraez (+2yr/$20M) (Lowrie alternative) Non-tender: Robbie Grossman (trade if you can) Tyler Duffey Lineup: 2nd- Jed Lowrie (or Dee Gordon) SS- Jorge Polanco RF- Eddie Rosario DH- Nelson Cruz 1st- Yonder Alonso 3rd- Miguel Sano CF- Byron Buxton C- Mitch Garver RF- Max Kepler Bench: Tyler Austin Ehire Adrianza Lamonte Wade Jason Castro AAA Depth: Nick Gordon Willians Astudillo Michael Reed Rotation: Jose Berrios Fernando R…

As expected, the Seibu Lions have posted left-handed starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi. I wondered aloud on Twitter if the Twins would have interest in the 27-year-old, and Darren Wolfson of KSTP was kind enough to confirm that the team has scouted him pretty extensively. Obviously that doesn't necessarily mean the Twins are serious suitors for Kikuchi, but it sounds like he's certainly on their radar. Yes, the international market can be a crap shoot, but to be fair you could say the same about free agency in general. MLB Trade Rumors had Kikcuhi as their No. 12 free agent available while FanGraphs has him at No. 14.

After some discussion with people around the game on what the Twins may do at pitching coach, I came into a very good discussion with someone in the Marlins org, who believes the Twins could bring in Kyle Snyder and he and Baldelli would be very willing to try new things with how pitchers are used in Minnesota. I had my own thoughts, and I was told that they aren't insane...check them out! https://calltothepen.com/2018/11/02/minnesota-twins-new-pitching-trend-2019/

I think the Twins should move Kepler because they have a pretty good player in Kiriloff coming up and Cave and Wade could hold down the corner until he's ready. Kepler has been a pretty steady 2-3 WARish player in the corner while making some improvements but still having a really low babip. If his babip were normal, his stats would look a lot better. Some team might really be willing to bet on him making that jump. He's also under team control for four more seasons (through his age 29 season). In Colorado both Carlos Gonzalez and Parra are both free agents. David Dahl will take over for one of them but they still have an opening in a corner and probably still have a …

I looked up Roberto Osuna and his time with the Jays. There are two features of his career that might be of interest when putting together a 2019 Twins bullpen. First is his age 2015 20 2016 21 2017 22 Second is his pitch mix. Actually, he really didn't have one. Around 2/3rds of his pitches were 4 seamers. He was less a Tom Glavine pitcher and more of a pure heat thrower. So, I nominate Brusdar Graterol as opening day closer! I just haven't figured out which year...

I just checked in on the winter league stats at mlb.com. Two Twins have already logged 75-80 PA: Astudillo and Arraez. They are both raking in Puerto Rico: Astudillo - .338/.393/.432 Arraez - .413/.444/.543 I'm not surprised these two are still playing every day. Old-school ballplayers.

This blueprint won’t appear in the handbook but I’m adding mine in the same format because if anyone is going to come up with the Flexibility and Depth Blueprint… Umm… It would have to be me. There are a couple of non-flexibility factors that make an aggressive approach reasonable in my mind. The American League Central will probably be weak once again. The window was open last year and we failed to take advantage and that window is still open. Kansas City and Detroit are just getting started with the rebuild and Chicago is still a couple of years away and Cleveland is going to lose considerable talent in the off-season and they have been draining that farm trying t…

According to The Athletic, Garvin Alston won't be back for 2019. Surprising to say the least.

Good afternoon everyone, The off-season is officially here, and that means it is time for us to put ourselves into the shoes of Falvine and tell him what to do with this off-season so we can have a successful 2019, and get back to the playoffs. So, without further ado here is what I would do with the Twins off-season. Arbitration Decisions (numbers from Matt Swartz, MLB Trade Rumors) Jake Odorizzi - $9.4 million (tender) Kyle Gibson - $7.9 million (tender) Eddie Rosario - $5.0 million (tender) Robbie Grossman - $4.0 million (non-tender) Max Kepler - $3.2 million (tender) Miguel Sano - $3.1 million (tender) Ehire Adrianza - $1.8 million (tender) Taylor Rogers - $1.6 mill…

Hey guys, been a frequent of the site for a long time but new to posting on here. I just finished reading the Offseason Handbook and I think we are in a unique situation this year. Woke up early, was bored and felt like being GM for a morning. With the luxury of money we have to spend here is how I would go about our off-season. Free Agent Signings 1B/3B/DH Josh Donaldson (1 yr/16M): He is top of my list given he will likely only require a 1 year deal. If we become sellers could be a great trade chip. 2B Logan Forsythe (1 yr/3M): 2B is a huge hole for us. He showed promise post-deadline with us. Small risk to be a decent stop gap until Gordon (assuming he gets moved to…

https://fancredsports.com/Articles/inside-baseball-predicting-the-deals-for-131-of Jon Heyman and an 'expert' predicted what the top 131 free agents are going to get this offseason. Anyone that you see is way above or below what you think you would pay them?

http://m.startribune.com/bert-blylevens-fsn-role-reduced-to-50-games-in-2019-and-30-in-2020/498939251/ Less 'California Math' is a good thing. It's time to move on to another analyst. Who do you want to hear more of next season?

According to mlbtraderumors.com, Drake and Field are both gone. I guess Reed is a better fit as a backup outfielder and while Drake had fairly good numbers with the Twins, he was nothing special, and most of his appearances were low leverage.

I touched on this in a recent blog but would love to hear other opinions. With the future of the twins riding on these two players and their hitting struggles, I pose this question: Is leaving Rowson as the hitting coach the right move?

No surprise here, but the Twins have officially announced that they have bought out the option years for Ervin Santana and Logan Morrison's 2019 contracts. They become free agents.

This might be an interesting exercise to keep us engaged this offseason, and I'm somewhat curious what people think. To start, I'm going with 4 locks in the rotation: Berrios, Gibson, Pineda (though to be fair, he may not be a lock), and Odorizzi. I'm assuming that we aren't going to sign anyone, and I don't think trading one of these guys makes a lot of sense unless it's part of a package to include a clear upgrade or a clear upgrade is signed via FA. The Twins currently have 11 options available that could be starting for them at some point in 2019. A few of these guys can have a case made for breaking north with them this spring while several will definitely requir…

...dated Oct 27th. http://www.startribune.com/names-to-consider-for-twins-manager/498804051/ I can't even.

With the season being early its time to bring out the projections based off of the early games in the season. Like right now Zach Duke is striking out batters at a pace of 36 per 9 innings. Sano is on pace to strike out 486 times this season. and Rodney is on pace to give up 162 game winning home runs. Lets see what tomorrow brings.

Does anyone know the status of the coaches from last year? Are they cleaning house? Keeping Some? I haven't heard anything