Minnesota Twins Talk

Anyone know why the umpire had a visit with Kepler out in right field ? I know Max did not agree with call at the plate but since i was there I dont know if there was an explanation on tv or radio of the umps right field visit.

The Twins site had an article from Do-Hyoung Park yesterday about Maeda's rehab situation. Maeda said if he comes back this year it'd likely be in the pen. He threw a 30 fastball bullpen on Tuesday at 80% effort. Will fly to Florida after the AS break and hopes to start facing live hitters in August before starting his rehab games. Says September would be when he comes back and it'll depend on how the team is doing. I'd love to see him take the extra pitcher roster spot in September. Let's hope things keep moving as planned and we can have him back for the stretch run!

If I showed you this statcast page without context, what Twins pitcher would you think it is? As well as: -0.1 War or a 95 ERA+ (100 is league average) Well first off it looks average or slightly below, so you could pick a name out of a hat from the Twins bullpen. Okay, maybe you're an "old school" guy and you like more conventional metrics of success. How about a 5.59 ERA in June or a 13.50 ERA in July? Maybe 17 earned runs in his past 15 innings pitched? That's Taylor Rogers. I was told that Rodgers was an elite reliever that the stupid front office traded away! So I'm being a little negative, that's fair to say, but I …

Jose Miranda appears ready to take over 3B for the next several years. Is it time to make that move now? Gio Urshela has value to this team. He has a 107 OPS+ and plays a reliable third base. There are several teams that are not getting that production out of their 3B. Miranda can slide over to 3B and play nearly every day. The depth at 3B would take a hit as they would have Arraez and Gordon behind him with Steer at AAA. With the return of Miguel Sano the Twins might have the depth to trade him. Urshela would have more trade value to a team with his glove at 3B and control through next year than Sano. There are a few teams that might be a match. Unfort…

MLBtrade rumors has mentioned that COlorado is hoping to move some pieces. The Twins need a closer. Why not? https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/07/rockies-reportedly-open-to-trading-chad-kuhl-alex-colome.html We could send them Pagan, our wanna be closer, for Colombe, who may be a better second-half pitcher again. Good chance to take? Throw in a Bundy exchange for Kuhl. Maybe sweeten the pot for Colorado with Strotman as a throw-in with a low-level prospect in return.

My new topic is an old topic we have many of us been gagging on for several days now. Many times if I carp or pick at Rocco I know that I may be missing something, he might have a bigger perspective etc. Not this time. We had a chance to gain two in the standings versus the Sox (3-0 versus 2-1 ) in the recent series. Why in the world did he not send Duran out for the 9th after he mowed them down on few pitches in the 8th? I reluctantly bow to him on all this saving them for important games late in season stuff. But this was a super important game. Why could he not realize THIS was late in the season and what he was saved for? Now Duran is ready for a so-so game aga…

I am not a baseball "insider." I am a casual+ fan who goes to about 10 games a year at Target Field and follows the Twins in the Strib. (Damn you LEN for dropping the beat and becoming a columnist. Phil, I LOVE your bylines. Megan, I cannot wait to read what you have for us.) I have long listened to Twins games on the radio. I am old enough to have known Herb Carneal as the voice of my youth. Ahhh summers. Herb was so languid, So much crowd noise to fill in the gaps. No uneccesary chatter. Games from the Dome sometimes seemed like Wally The Beer Man was the "color man" in the booth. When I visited the Baseball Hall of Fame a few years ago, I made it a point to ho…

Saw a paragraph in the Star and Tribune from 2 days ago. https://www.startribune.com/injured-twin-bailey-ober-is-back-to-pitching-again-could-make-rehab-starts-next-week/600184461/ I'm guessing he's on pace for a return to the team around the All Star Game. He'll probably get a 1 week rehab assignment.

As Buxton reached base on error again yesterday it had me wondering again about whether this is a skill. Is it reaching base as a result of an error simply random or does the skill of the hitter have some impact? Buxton leads the team in reaching on base by error this year with 4. I get the speed but would have expected someone with more ground ball outs to get on base more often by error. Adding those 4 and his OBP is increased by 15 (.015). That isn't insignificant. There are three players who have reached base by error 3 times in Kepler, Celestino and Gordon. Kepler gets a boost of 10 in OBP but it is the other two that I am interested in. It might change my perception…

Twins fans (myself included) have been down on Ryan Jeffers most of the season. He's hitting below the Mendoza line. It sometimes seems like the opposition can put runners on auto-steal. He's even recently had some issues with passed balls. I decided to do an exercise comparing all the primary AL catchers so far this season. I labeled the primary catcher based on the most innings behind the plate on each team. I did make one exception and placed Adley Rutchman as the Orioles primary catcher, since he's taken over and won't be giving that position back to Chirinos unless he gets hurt. I highlighted the top five in each category in green and the bottom five in red. H…

Joe Ryan’s three starts since returning from COVID have been mediocre at best. In 15.2 innings he has given up 20 hits and 4 home runs while striking out only 11. His pitch count is up and it took 102 pitches to make it through 5 innings against Colorado. Is the drop all due to COVID? Bad luck? Is the league adjusting to him? I hope we see the Ryan from the first two months of the season against Baltimore tonight. We will need that Ryan against Chicago next Wednesday.

Reposted from game recap… The third time through the order narrative is somewhat a myth that is founded in the skewed data the third time in a row. The main reason pitchers have poorer numbers the third time through the order is that the data is heavily skewed towards the top of the order and the best hitters. Bundy has faced a batter a third time 48 times. The top 3 in the order account for 25 of the 48. The bottom 3 account for 6. With that skew it should follow that almost any pitcher is going to have much worse numbers the third time through. Looking at the data from an individual hitters perspective gives a different perception. I did this a while back and…

In my opinion, Nelson Cruz had the best years of his career in a Twins jersey. His on field results combined with his clubhouse leadership quickly made him a fan favorite. I have seen some people calling for the Twins to trade for him, so I want to get everyone’s opinions. Would a trade realistically be possible? With the Nationals this year, Cruz started slow but has started to produce more lately, and I’m positive he would produce even more back in Target Field. The only issue is getting ABs for him, or taking ABs away from others. Buxton has gotten a big chunk of the DH ABs so far this year, but the Twins could try to push him more in CF as the year goes on. Sanchez ha…

It is hard to believe, but here we are, at the 1/2-way point of the 2022 season, our hometown hero's having completed 82 games of the schedule. So it is mid-season review time. What has most surprised you about the Twins' season so far? Whether its the standings, W-L record, break-out players, disappointing performances, the AL Central, "dead-ball" baseball...whatever. What are the most surprising or unexpected things from the 1st half of 2022? For me, its that our guys are in first place. I was not bullish on this season back in late March, and so have been happily eating a healthy dose of crow. I love to see the emerging future core beginning to estab…

I think we all agree the team is not the best, but has a good chance to make playoffs even as is. Maybe they falter and either Cleveland or Chicago go on a run, but as built we have been in competition for playoff spot. Now, many say, well who cares we will not win the playoffs as built and need 'x' to win. Okay, lets assume that is true, the logic says we cannot win with current team, mainly because Yankees will beat us. So that brings up the question, if we make some trades, would we be in a position to beat the Yankees? What would it cost to do that? So to me the logic suggests we do not make any major trades, a pen pitcher or two may be worth it for low le…

I think the Twins should consider sending Celestino to AAA and recalling Contreras. The upcoming schedule has two series against the White Sox. The White Sox have a right handed starting rotation and their main lefty out of the pen is injured. I think they have one lefty on the 26. Celestino could benefit from getting swings every day. Overall I think Celestino helps more but in this stretch with the White Sox, more days off and the all star break it might benefit him more to get every day at bats and it wouldn’t hurt the Twins to have another left handed bat on the bench.

Jeff Passons had an article about Luis Arraez today. It talks about how Rod Carew and Ichiro, two of all time greatest hitters, think Arraez is best left handed hitter today. It goes on to talk about how Arraez has been doubted his whole career because everyone talked about what he was not, but never looked at what he was, being an elite hitter. We here at TD have been very divided on Arraez since he first came up in 2019. Most either loved or hated him. I have been on the love side of things. Those that hated him would talk about his lack of defense, lack of power, lack of speed, and would try to claim his BABIP was not sustainable. Those that loved him would…

The Twins starting rotation, as a group, has been rather mediocre so far in 2022. Here are some overall rotation stats for you: ERA: 3.82 (15th) WHIP: 1.22 (11th) K%: 20.2 (19th) BB%: 6.7 (7th) ERA-: 99 (15th) With the AL Central being up for grabs, the Twins should look to add at the deadline to increase their chances of winning in the postseason. We all know how long it's been since this team has won in the postseason. Starting pitching will be the need, and Frankie Montas is likely to be highly coveted at the trade deadline. Frankie Montas has been solid for the A's thus far in 2022: While these are not earth-shattering numbers by any …

I posted this in the game recap but it deserves it's own discussion. For those upset with how the Twins (Not Baldelli by himself) are approaching the pitching staff. This article may help you understand. Please read and then discuss https://www.draysbay.com/2021/10/7/22703079/tampa-bay-rays-story-of-modern-baseball-power-starters-middle-relief-aces-collin-mchugh

I don’t know about you, but I like being on the winning side of a late inning comeback for once (twice now) after being on the losing end sooo many times.

Twins Record: 45-36 Offensive stats: BA: .253 (6th in MLB) League Avg. .242 OBP: .322 (8th in MLB) League Avg. .312 OPS: .739 (7th in MLB) League Avg. .707 OPS+ 113 (3rd in MLB) Age of Batters: 26.9 (Tied for 3rd youngest in MLB) Pitching Stats: ERA: 3.68 (7th in MLB) League Avg. 4.02 FIP: 4.02 (16th in MLB) exactly League Avg ERA+ 104 (Tied for 12th in MLB) Observations: The bullpen has done a great job preventing inherited runners from scoring. Only 25 of 101 inherited runners have scored, good for 3rd best in baseball. The late innings are an amplified issue with 18 saves and 14 blown saves. The 56% save …

Joe Ryan - 127 ERA+ Sonny Gray - 176 ERA+ Chris Archer - 124 ERA+ Devin Smeltzer - 134 ERA+ Dylan Bundy - 81 ERA+ Just as we all predicted, of course.

Just curious... How recently has there been a straight steal of home (not a result of attention paid to another runner on the bases) Has a catcher catching on one knee ever been a contributing factor? Has a runner gained home on fielder indifference? And the pay off pitch: Buxton was on third for a while last night. If he had tried to steal home on strike 3 of the 3rd out, in what circumstances would the run count? Does he have to leave before the pitcher starts his motion to the plate? Does it count if he touches home before the catcher catches the pitch? In the event of a bounced strike, does it count if he touches before the catcher…

Getting super-tired of watching Pagan blow leads. Bullpen needs serious help!

I would politely point out to Mr. Baldelli that past performance can, in fact, indicate future success. It is my humble opinion that leaving a 102MPH heater idling in the bullpen in a game that was critical to win was perhaps an unwise decision and it is why his WAR as the Twins manager is currently -43. Go Twins!

The Twins have lost 36 games to date. The Bullpen has lost 15 games where they inherited a lead and blew it, sometimes more than once. That is about 42% of the losses. Setting aside the demoralizing psychological impact of all these blown leads and games, this strikes me as an amazingly high percentage and number of blown games so far into a season. Is this inordinately high, or is it just recency bias because of the Cleveland debacle?

What does the Twins pen look like come playoff time as currently built? Duran - Hes a monster but also a rookie and will be wayyyy stretched past any load he has ever had Jax - Has looked solid, not sure he is a real setup arm but also will be wayyy stretched past any load he has ever had Alcala - coming back from a lengthy injury Thielbar - solid lefty if deployed correctly Maeda - coming back from Tommy John but has been an awesome playoff reliever in the past Smith - old vet presence good for middle innings and tough righties Cotton - seems like a decent middle reliever Duffey - maybe he re finds himself? Pagan - maybe he re…

On June 1, the TD news page featured this article… I didn’t agree with the opinion suggested by the headline even then, but one month later, it’s hard to imagine posting that article today. Since this, he’s thrown 23 innings with a 1.57 ERA in June. He’s now started more games than any other Twins pitcher and has thrown the second most innings on the team. There has been some concern associated with his underlying number (see his 4.72 FIP), but he keeps looking better and better in my opinion. He’s been getting a lot of outs by means of weak contact. That always makes a pitcher’s FIP look worse than his results, but it also makes for a much more efficient …

https://www.minnesotasportsfan.com/carlos-correa-will-opt-out-of-contract-after-season-minnesota-twins/ Joel Sherman (New York Post)