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2018 Free Agents and Potential Minnesota Twins Targets


MidwestTwinsFan15

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With the Minnesota Twins currently in the middle of the off-season and getting prepared for Pitchers and Catchers to report to Fort Myers, FL in 49 Days. I wanted to jump ahead to the highly anticipated 2018 Free Agent Class. It appears that the 2017 has been underwhelming for most with the consensus that the Twins seem to be preparing to "Make Their Run" in 2019.

 

The Twins Free Agents will include Joe Mauer ($23 Mil), Brian Dozier ($9 Mil), Eduardo Escobar ($2.5 Mil), Fernando Rodney ($4.5 Mil w/ club option for 2019). These four players will represent roughly $39 Mil possibly coming off the books for the organization. Not taking into consideration players the Twins are looking to possibly extend contracts with (Buxton, Sano, Berrios). Lets dive into what the 2019 Minnesota Twins could look like (or what I would like the 2019 Twins to look like). Note that I don't believe we should re-sign any of our free agents to-be (Dozier, Escobar & Mauer) or exercise our club options (Rodney).

 

Starting Pitchers:

1. Ervin Santana

2. Jose Berrios

3. Stephan Gonsalves

4. Fernando Romero

5. Micheal Pineda

 

Relief Pitchers:

1. J.T. Chargois

2. Aaron Slegers

3. Tyler Jay

4. Trevor Hildenberger

5. Taylor Rogers

6. Trevor May

7. Felix Jorge

8. Adalberto Mejia

 

Infielders:

1. Miguel Sano (DH)

2. Nick Gordon (SS)

3. Jorge Polanco (2B)

4. Jose Iglesias or Josh Donaldson (3B, Free Agent Signee)

5. Matt Adams or Justin Smoak (1B, Free Agent Signee)

6.

 

Outfielders:

1. Byron Buxton

2. Max Kepler

3. Eddie Rosario

4. Zack Granite

 

Catchers:

1. Jason Castro

2. Mitch Garver

 

Note that I have left our starting pitching staff as status-quo until the FO shows the masses that they will throw some coin at a Front Line Starter. I believe with the money coming off the books after the 2018 season, that the financial resources should be there for us to get one. Sano is destined to be a full time DH (due to his size and to keep him healthy). I like Garver's versatility in the field while Castro is still under contract.

 

I think we need to get after a LHH First Basemen, possibly Matt Adams or Justin Smoak. With Sano moving to full-time DH, we would need to acquire a 3rd basemen I like Jose Iglesias for this. We would still need to get a UTL IF/OF type player for the back end of the bench - this could be filled by a variety of players, internal or external. I would also consider Josh Donaldson at 3B - he would cost us a bit more money but would add some significant power to the line-up.

 

I gathered below 16 Position Players and 16 Pitchers that will be Free Agents after the 2018 season. Some are way out of our financial league with some that are older but still productive - who catches your eye as possibly realistic Twins targets for upgrades to our line-up and pitching staff?

 

Position Players:

1. Bryce Harper - 2019 Age, 26

2. Manny Machado - 2019 Age, 26

3. Josh Donaldson - 2019 Age, 32

4. Charlie Blackmon - 2019 Age, 32

5. Elvis Andrus - 2019 Age, 30 (Opt Out)

6. Brian Dozier - 2019 Age, 32

7. AJ Pollock - 2019 Age, 31

8. Andrew McCutchen - 2019 Age, 32

9. Joe Mauer - 2019 Age, 36

10. Adam Jones - 2019 Age, 33

11. Wilson Ramos - 2019 Age, 31

12. Justin Smoak - 2019 Age, 32

13. Matt Adams - 2019 Age, 30

14. Jose Iglesias - 2019 Age, 29

15. Jason Heyward - 2019 Age, 29 (Opt Out)

16. Yasmany Tomas - 2019 Age, 28 (Opt Out)

 

Pitchers:

1. David Price - 2019 Age, 33 (Opt Out)

2. Andrew Miller - 2019 Age, 34

3. Craig Kimbrel - 2019 Age, 31

4. Gio Gonzalez - 2019 Age, 33

5. Zach Britton - 2019 Age, 31

6. Patrick Corbin, 2019 Age, 30

7. Drew Pomeranz - 2019 Age, 30

8. Clayton Kerhaw - 2019 Age, 31 (Opt Out)

9. Matt Harvey - 2019 Age, 30

10. Nathan Eovaldi - 2019 Age, 29

11. Dallas Keuchel - 2019 Age, 31

12. Garrett Richards - 2019 Age, 31

13. Matt Moore - 2019 Age, 30

14. Hyun-Jin Ryu - 2019 Age, 32

15. Joe Kelly - 2019 Age, 31

16. David Robertson - 2019 Age, 34

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Seems like the big clubs are clearing out their payroll this year to allow them to spend with fewer penalties next year. I think if the Twins fail to make a big splash in the starting pitcher market this year (Darvish), they'll probably lose their window.

 

I don't think that team you put together has a shot at winning the WS. Not that you said it did, it's probably a realistic portrayal of what the roster would look like under the prior regime, hopefully the new one makes some bolder choices.

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Seems like the big clubs are clearing out their payroll this year to allow them to spend with fewer penalties next year. I think if the Twins fail to make a big splash in the starting pitcher market this year (Darvish), they'll probably lose their window.

 

I don't think that team you put together has a shot at winning the WS. Not that you said it did, it's probably a realistic portrayal of what the roster would look like under the prior regime, hopefully the new one makes some bolder choices.

You are 100% correct - the roster I put together is not WS worthy. It kind of falls into my point and your point, that until the FO makes some bolder moves - the Twins will continue try and find lightning in the bottle. The old regime is gone for a reason, lets hope the current FO can convince our best buddy (Pohlad) to open up the bank a bit and put their own personal marking this franchise. 

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IMHO, re-signing Mauer for 2 years and Dozier for 4 is a better move, (still a combined payroll savings) and keep Escobar and probably Adrianza as well.

 

3B remains a potential concern, but we just don't know enough about Sam's status at this point.

 

Just like here and now, it's pitching that is the key, and an upgrade of such.

 

Very interesting to see you put May and Mejia in the bullpen. Not saying you are wrong to do it, just find it interesting.

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In two more years, I think Berrios might be as good as just about any of those free agents! However the rest of the Twins 2019 rotation figures to be a complete unknown at this time.

 

I am still a David Price fan and maybe he will accept a smaller contract at that time to play for a smaller market than Boston. When the All Star game was in Minneapolis, Price spent his All Star break just bumming around the Twin Cities prior to his team playing the series at Target Field after the break. Maybe the quality of life here could appeal to him (hey, wouldn't hurt to ask).

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Name me a team that is won a world series after signing a big name FA pitcher to be the frontline of their staff?  The only 2 I can think of is Yankees with Sabathia and Cubs with Lester.  My counterargument to both of those is that Lester was compliment and a finishing touch to a team that already a world series caliber lineup and pitchers like Arrietta.  The Yankees won in Sabathia's 1st year in NY.  He was a stud.  For the near decade after that championship the Yankees have as many non playoff seasons as playoff seasons.  Overpaying for pitching on the free agent market only guarantees one thing.  At some point you will regret signing the player.  It certainly does not guarantee a world series.  

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I think Brent Rooker takes over 1B in 2019 and destroys baseballs al la Kris Bryant. Sure, sign a Josh Donaldson to cover down on 3B and the lineup goes something like this:

 

Buxton (CF)

Polanco (2B)

Rosario (LF)

Donaldson (3B)

Sano (DH)

Rooker (1B)

Kepler (RF)

Castro ©

Gordon (SS)

 

The lineup has 3 RHH followed by 3 LHH in the 4-9 spots, but, I don't think you move Gordon up to say, the 2 spot and shift everyone down one. Nor would you swap Gordon for Polanco would you? Meh...either way, I think that's a pretty powerful lineup that will score runs. I do see the need to get some addktional LH Power in the lineup to create more balance. I just see Rooker taking the league by storm amd they'll have to find room for him at 1B or the OF. Kepler and Rosario can hit 50-55 HR between the two of them, so there's ZERO need to replace them. Buck is going nowhere and can hit 20+ HR. Sano hits 30. Donaldson hits 30. Rooker hits 25. Polanco 10-15 with 2Bs power. Castro maybe 10. Gordon maybe 5.

 

FA pitching is where I get lost in the sauce. As long as they're meeting expectations, the starting 5 listed in the article looks decent enough to me. Santana probably won't be the staff Ace in 2019; I think Berrios earns that title by then. Gonsalves, Romero, Pineda could be a really solid back end of the rotation.

 

Berrios

Santana

Gonsalves

Romero/Pineda/Mejia/Slegers/May/Stewart (Pick 2)

 

Slegers, May, Mejia...not sure you have all 3 of those guys in the pen. I think May is a 6th or 7th SP on this (2019) team, or he beats out someone like Romero. Slegers just doesn't do it for me in the pen and fits the AAAA mold in my eyes right now. If the rotation is demonstrably capable, then I think you drop some cash on building a DOMINANT bull pen and add a guy like Kimbrel.

 

Kimbrel

Chargois

Rogers

Jay

Hildenburger

Jorge

May/Pineda/Mejia/Stewart/Slegers (Pick 2)

 

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Woof. I'd want nothing to do with Donaldson, Smoak, or Adams. Donaldson for the years, Adams because he can't hit LHP, and Smoak because I'm on the Rooker bandwagon. I'd rather give Moustakas 5/$85-90 this year when the market is suppressed. 

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