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Dynamic Shift In Twins Lineup


Ted Schwerzler

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It would be beyond silly to suggest that the Minnesota Twins lineup is better with Miguel Sano not in it. However, since the hulking third basemen last played on August 19, Minnesota has actually seen an increase in run production. Paul Molitor's club has risen to postseason play without one of their best players, and it's interesting to dive into how that happened.

 

On August 19, the Twins were averaging 4.67 runs per game (good enough for 17th in MLB). Fast forward to today, and Minnesota is 4th in baseball averaging 5.08 runs per game. In the 35 games since August 19, they've scored double-digit runs on 10 different occasions. In the month of September alone, despite being just two games over .500, they've posted a +41 run differential. In other words, the Twins have been ambushing opposing pitchers for over a month now.

 

When in the lineup, Miguel Sano generally he's batted 3rd or 4th. Since he's been out, that role has been given to a group consisting of Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Eduardo Escobar, and Eddie Rosario. While none of those players are the home run threat that Sano is, they've each shouldered the load as an integral run producing fixture for the Twins.

 

Sano's season will end with 111 games played. He has a .267/.365/.870 slash line. A three true outcomes player, he's walked, struck out, or homered in 60.6% of his plate appearances. While the home run numbers increased marginally from 2016, his strikeout rate has jumped off the page from his 80 game debut in 2015. If we're looking for something to point to as reason for the Twins additional run production, that could be it.

 

To date, Sano owns a 35.8% strikeout rate. The guys who've filled in for him own totals of 29.2% (Buxton), 14.6% (Polanco), 19.5% (Escobar), and 17.8% (Rosario). Even the highest mark of the group is more than a 5% decrease from where Sano was at, and it all points towards more balls being put in play. Despite not having the same power numbers, run production has been aided by contact rates that surpass Sano's.

 

Again, none of this is to suggest the Twins are better off without Sano in their lineup. While the Minnesota third basemen has been better this year than in 2016, trending more towards his 2015 debut would be ideal. In 80 games back in 2015, Sano drew 53 walks while striking out just 119 times. In 2017, he needed 111 games to draw 54 walks, but struck out 170 times. His contact rate is actually up (62.4%) from 2015 (60.9%), but the swinging strike rate has jumped to a career worst 18.1%.

 

Going into the postseason, it's probably not realistic to expect any sort of a contribution from the slugger. Had his leg injury healed to the point of him being able to take at bats, a pinch hit scenario could be interesting, and pose a problem for opposing pitchers. As things stand however, he'll be unavailable, and the Twins will continue to turn to a group of non-traditional middle-of-the-order hitters.

 

It shouldn't be overlooked that the fill-ins have flashed power of their own. Rosario may hit 30 homers, Escobar has 20, Buxton is at 16, and Polanco has added 12 of his own. Instead of being power, a free base, or nothing however, the group has made opposing pitchers attack the heart of the Twins lineup differently. Over the past month, it's worked better than anyone could've imagined, and Minnesota is going to have a postseason berth to show for it.

 

When Paul Molitor takes this group to Yankee Stadium on Tuesday, he won't have his club's version of Miguel Sano in the lineup. That being said, if a New York pitcher thinks they're getting a break with the Minnesota 3-4-5 trio, they'll be sadly mistaken.

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

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I'm baffled by the lineup. Mauer batting second. Polanco third. Escobar cleanup more often than not. Rposario and Buxton on the backside. Even you DH batting ninth.

 

But, considering how the bullpen seems setup, I shouldn't be surprised.

 

But, it worked!

 

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Another blogger who I read regularly and is a metrics disciple says that you now place your best hitter in the two hole. That the temporary theory of him in the one spot and hitting the pitcher 8th in the NL has fallen out of vogue. I would imagine that Mauer is the Twins best hitter this year. Someone else may do more damage with one swing of the bat, but that bat will be easier to miss than Mauers. The offense does not surprise me. The precious regime put offense over defense almost exclusively. EE is still here because he could hit a little better than a lot of other utility guys. He certainly is not a defensive whiz. Dozier and Polanco are bat first players. As was Rosario through MiLB. This teams hitting will only improve. It will eventually be an awesome offense. But the real reason it has surged since Aug 19th? It's most likely the tour made through the dregs of the AL.

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