Buxton

Dozier

Mauer

Sano

Rosario

Kepler

Grossman

Castro

Polanco

Great write up! Not only because it's smart, but because over the years I have delighted myself with how smart I am at creating quality lineups on napkins and the such. Lol

I still believe in the philosophy of creating a "deep" lineup, meaning you don't just bunch all of your best hitters together...assuming you have more than just a couple good hitters...but try to create the best 1-9 you can.

The "problem" with thjs team, with so many young pkayers still maturing, is where do they actually fit best? We are still riding some highs and lows in their development. Buxton, for instance. He was absolutely supposed to be a Raines, Henderson #1 before eventually moving down in the lineup. But he may end up skipping the leadoff hitter role at the ML level and become more of a middle if the lineup hitter. Dozier should absolutely take his solid speed, decent hitting and 60+ XBH and move down in the lineup. But face it, he's been good there, productive, and the best option at the time.

Vince Coleman had little power, so-so OB, but was dangerous and even dominant at times hitting 1 for the Cardinals in the 80's with his speed and pressure on the pitcher and defense. But Wade Boggs, and even Brian Downing, in roughly the same era, provided more AVG, OB with power but zero speed.

Right now, as the team is constructed, without a power bat at DH, I would look at a matchup of Mauer, Grossman and Polanco in the top 2 spots. (Others like Escobar, Granite and Adrianza can fill in when they play). I believe OB is more important than the prototypical "speed" leadoff hitter. No question Dozier and Sano should hit in some combination of 3-4. It can be debated, for various reasons, as to who should hit where, but those are their spots.

5-6-7, a combination of Kepler, Buxton and Rosario. All the faith in the world for Kepler to eventually hit lefties, at least to a certain degree, but Rosario hits them better now. Any kind of solid daily performance, much less a hot streak, if I'm a pitcher, I feel no relief facing this 3-some after the first 4 batters in the Twins lineup.

8-9 is no cakewalk either. Used properly, Castro and Garver has nice potential. And that leaves Polanco, Mauer and Grossman, based on the "everyday" lineup fitting in to the other spot at the bottom of the order. (Of course, allowing for bench players who aren't bad either).

An exact lineup? No. Disagreeing with your lineup? Nope. Just focusing on the normal 9 and allowing for a little daily flexibility.

They should sign Carlos Santana in the offseason and just have him lead off.

If they were to do that, and I saw elsewhere where you suggested it, Mauer hits second?

If they were to do that, and I saw elsewhere where you suggested it, Mauer hits second?

Maybe Buxton? I wouldn't oppose to Mauer, Dozier or Buxton -- or even Kepler/Polanco, really -- hitting second in that lineup.

It's worth pointing out that when (if?) Miguel Sano comes back this year, he will likely be limited to DH duty. I believe there was even something on the official site that alluded to that possibility. Of course, that may not be what you mean by "fully healthy".  Of course, there could be different players on the roster next year.  Grossman is certainly not a sure thing.

Personally, I like Dozier in the lead off spot.  There's something to be said about the comfort level of a particular hitter in a particular spot.  A wisened sage once reportedly said that 90% of the game is half mental.  I've always felt Mauer was a perfect # 2 hitter, because he does a good job making contact and it isn't afraid to take pitches (to allow base stealers to steal).  Sano, for all his faults, is still the Twins best all around hitter and that's usually who you put third.  Then you need protection.  The Twins really don't have a PROVEN guy for that role at this time.  Rosario fits the bill best at this time.  If we ignore Polanco's horrendous June and July (or at least chalk it up to the grieving process), it's hard to ignore what he does from both sides of the plate and his ability to make contact plays in the middle of the lineup sandwiched between some guys that can struggle with contact from time to time.  Buxton has been inconsistent (in case anyone hadn't noticed), but his numbers are still worthy of an important lineup spot.  Kepler has been up and down as well.  He needs to hit lower IMO mainly because he has not figured out LHP yet.  At this point, Escobar probably should be playing third, assuming Sano won't when he does come back, with Adrianza spelling him.  So far, Ehire has done slightly better vs RHP (although those numbers will change after today's HR off Snell) but Eduardo has been considerably better vs LHP.  Someone has to catch.  It's in the rules somewhere I think.  It certainly isn't going to change much at this point.  

So, to condense, I would go:

2b Dozier

1b Mauer

dh Sano

lf Rosario

ss Polanco

cf Buxton

rf Kepler

3b Escobar/Adrianza

c Castro/Giminez

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

If you believe the new-fangled statistics (which I do), the 3 spot is the least important of the first 5.  The proposed order of importance is:

1, 4, 2, 5, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9.

The first two slots are dominated by OBP, with the next three OPS.  6th is if you have someone stealing well, the rest in decreasing effectiveness.

IF you take into account just season stats (which doesn't account for things like how Buxton has come on lately and such), and bind yourself to OPS, OBP, and wOBA vs lefties and righties, I see:

vs Lefties

RF Grossman (OBP .402, OPS .732)

CF Buxton  (OBP .398, OPS .868)

1B Mauer  (OBP .376, OPS .747)

2B Dozier  (OBP .440, OPS 1.039)

3B Sano  (OBP .395, OPS 1.011)

DH Escobar (OBP .346, OPS .796)

LF Rosario (OBP .299, OPS .715)

C Castro (OBP .337, OPS .709)

SS Polanco (OBP .287, OPS .682)

vs Righties

1B Mauer (OBP .385, OPS .813)

DH Grossman (OBP .350, OPS .740)

3B Sano (OBP .343, OPS .826)

RF Kepler (OBP .348, OPS .855)

LF Rosario (OBP .336, OPS .856)

CF Buxton (OBP .290, OPS .684)

2B Dozier (OBP .325, OPS .774)

C Gimenez (OBP .353, OPS .693)

SS Polanco (OBP .316, OPS .733)

After putting this together and stepping back to look at this, it's not what I'd expect

Sure you can do some tweaks to prioritize OBP or OPS, but I think this is close to what The Book would argue.

Maybe Buxton? I wouldn't oppose to Mauer, Dozier or Buxton -- or even Kepler/Polanco, really -- hitting second in that lineup.

To me, with Santana in the equation, Mauer should hit 2nd or near the bottom of the order. He lacks real power or any speed. He can hit, work the count, and has the high OB. That speaks to the top or bottom from me.

Overall:

Santana

Mauer

Sano/Dozier

Dozier/Sano

Kepler/Rosario

Buxton

Rosario/Kepler

Castro/Garver

Polanco

I get BA, OB at the top of the order with power from the 1 spot. I can make different arguments for each of Dozier or Sano hitting 3 or 4 so kind of lumping them together. The 5 spot puts in a talented and dangerous young LH hitter, dependent on who is hotter, and maybe flip flopping Kepler and Rosario depending who is on the mound, Buxton breaks up the two LH hitters and remains in a prime hitting spot. (These 3 could do an awful lot of damage). Castro and Garver provide a little hitting and some power in a quasi-platoon spot for the 8 spot. And I put Polanco 9th, not because I'm doubting him, and I could see him in the 2 hole as well, but he provides a little bit of everything including some speed, at the bottom of the order ahead of Santana and Mauer, but also breaks up a run of the slower players on the team.

Castro and Gimenez may have reverse splits right now. But their careers suggest they are typical platoon tandem.

Castro and Gimenez may have reverse splits right now. But their careers suggest they are typical platoon tandem.

I like Garver v. LHP more, IMO