It's going to be an interesting off-season.

See the main lineup remaining intact, as you show, except who will DH. 

The only newcomer would be Nick Gordon, but he will have to shine at Rochester to start the season, and then bumo someone to the DH role (Dozier, perhaps).

I don't see much happening in the trade department, unless the Twins can move some arbitration players for prospects. They will have to make decisions on Grossman, Escobar, Gibson, Ehire at some point. If another team wants to control any of these guys for what they are worth, fine. Otherwise they go into free agent limbo. Quite frankly, I picture the Twins being tough on arbitration...and letting many a body walk...

Because, they only have two fur sure starters in the rotation. They might be able to buy someone, but at what cost. That person would charge more because the Twins don't look like competitors. Let's get this straight, unless the Twins really pull out the stops and blow everyone away and go thru the playoffs and make it to the world series, they will probably be a person standing jumping for the roses at the wedding, not the bridesmaid even.

The rotation is still a shambles. If anyone MAJOR from the farm breaks it, it would probably be Gonsalves if he has a stunning spring. Picture Jorge and Romero there eventually, but maybe not until August. You have May in the mix, but he needs to rebuild. 

The bench. A reunion with Trevor Plouffe? The guy could give you some playtime at 3B, 1B, OF and DH. He'll be cheaper than he was this year. Is he cheaper (and better) than Escobar or Ehrrie?

We will see how Granite does with his time up here. He could be the 4th outfielder.

But it would be nice to have a bigger bat. Of course, Park will still be in the mix. Unless he goes back to the Asian marketplace to play. Which is also where Vargas should probably go if he wants a good payday. Couple of years abroad and he can still work his way back into a contract in the majors.

I like the bullpen. It will be interesting to see where the Twins go with Perkins. They still don't have a bonifide closer. But if you don't have a rotation, then better get some long arms in that pen.

So pitching is the Big if! Even the promising arms from the minors (Reed, Chargois, Bard, etc. are all power short inning guys. You wear out your pen if you have a rotation that can't get into the 6th inning.

And it will be interesting to see what happens with the field staff. The Twins have some fine names down-on-the-farm, but switching them into the mix in 2018 is not necessarily a plus, as most of the guys they are working with are either learning bad manners in the majors, or at least a season away in the minors.

The question, again, on trades. Is there anyone another team is dying to have that is on the Twins roster?

The question, for free agents -- don't just sign for the sake of signing. If you msut play it safe, do it next season and make it a true rebuild with the hope of getting enough people up into major league play so they will perform stornger come 2019.

And be interesting to see Twins fever. It will be a horrible baseball off-season, with the Vikings still living off the new stadium, and Super Bowl fever in the air and commanding ALL the media coverage.

Carlos Santana is only 32? It feels like he's been around forever.

Pass on a 4 year contract for Santana.

I agree. Two max.

Great job Brandon!

Pass on a 4 year contract for Santana.

Maybe 3 plus an option. OBP guys tend to age well, though. 

Carlos Santana would be a good fit. His OBP is still high because of the high BB rate. He's OK at first base. Signing him would probably be goodby to both Kennys and Park (I read somewhere that Park's agent was talking buyout of his contract).

I think one of either Espinosa or Adrianza will go. On the pitching side, they need a starter for sure.

Garver or Giminez?

Garver or Giminez?

? The link is pretty clear on that.

Maybe 3 plus an option. OBP guys tend to age well, though. 

If you are going to probably give up a first round pick it should be for a four year player. A bat first player 20/m player is not the solution. The money would be better spent  elsewhere.  A closer and a set up pitcher.  Starter  and something else.

If you are going to probably give up a first round pick it should be for a four year player. A bat first player 20/m player is not the solution. The money would be better spent  elsewhere.  A closer and a set up pitcher.  Starter  and something else.

The article addresses that. He's only going to cost a third-round pick.

The article addresses that. He's only going to cost a third-round pick.

The thought that the Twins would sign 3 players who would cost a draft choice  makes your article one of wishful thinking rather than one of analysis  That would mean the Twins are signing 3 of the top dozen players.  Last year they averaged 18 million a season.  The Twins are not going to have a 130 million payroll. Mauer and Hughes contracts are not going anywhere.  That leaves Santana's 13 million contract.  For 5 million more you are not going to gain much.

Call up Rooker! 

At 2 years, I'm in on Santana. At 3, I'm probably still in. More than that and frankly, I'm uncomfortable. But I like his bat, power, and the fact he can actually still play in the field.

You brought up some very interesting SP options. Arrieta? Or buy lower and hope for lightening? (What the Cubs basically did when they got Arrieta in the first place). Not sure i know the answer, but will pkace my trust in the FO. But the point is to build the best team and win, right? Would it really be wrong or far fetched to also bring back Colon on a 1 year deal? The truth is, he can STILL pitch and he's good in the clubhouse. AS the old saying goes, there is no such thing as a bad 1 year contract. Mejia probably inherits the 5th spot with Rochester loaded! Tons of available depth, no pressure (for lack of a better word) to promote any of the kids, and there are trade possibilities as well. But then again, maybe in the long run the last two spots should be Mejia and an open audition.

I also like most of the pen arms and it's potential. And even with the names you listed, Reed, Bard, Jay, Chargois and even Burdi are available and potentially ready at some point. I'd really like to find a second LH arm and still would be in favor of a veteran "proven" arm for stability, experience, leadership, etc.

Overall, you state pretty much what I feel to be true; this team is really only a couple guys and continued development away from being a real contender.

The thought that the Twins would sign 3 players who would cost a draft choice  makes your article one of wishful thinking rather than one of analysis  That would mean the Twins are signing 3 of the top dozen players.  Last year they averaged 18 million a season.  The Twins are not going to have a 130 million payroll. Mauer and Hughes contracts are not going anywhere.  That leaves Santana's 13 million contract.  For 5 million more you are not going to gain much.

Spotrac has the 2017 Twins payroll at $113M (less draft pick bonuses and a mistake on Garcia). In 2018, the Twins will drop payroll from:

Santiago ($8M),

Perkins ($6.5M option year, $700k buyout),

Breslow ($1.25M),

Gimenez ($1.0M)

Nolasco commitment from trade ($4M), and

Garcia's commitment from trade ($4.2M - not the $11.8M shown on Spotrac).

That's $24.5M available before raises. Pressley, Gibson, Escobar, Grossman, Adrianza and May are arb-eligible. Dozier gets a $3M raise. The rest are under team control. A rough estimate would be a net drop of $15M. That brings to budget to $98M with no changes. This estimate assumes players already in the organization would fill the rotation and bullpen. Let's make it a $100M starting point.

I think the Twins should spend $130M/yr. Once they're competitive, market size and attendance should easily justify that payroll. By my estimate, the Twins should have $30M to spend in 2018.

Many of the Twins' core hit arbitration in 2018, but Mauer, Dozier and Santana (if less than 200 innings) come off the books. That's between $32M and $45M gone from the payroll in 2019. They'll add up to $20M back for the arbitrated contracts. Still, it's likely a net reduction of $25M they can spend in 2019.

The Twins have some flexibility if they're willing to have an average payroll. They could trade Santana and Dozier if they want more available money in 2018. They have prospects to trade if they want to go that route. It's all open - as long as the Pohlads are willing to pay for a competitive team. 

Spotrac has the 2017 Twins payroll at $113M (less draft pick bonuses and a mistake on Garcia). In 2018, the Twins will drop payroll from:

Santiago ($8M),

Perkins ($6.5M option year, $700k buyout),

Breslow ($1.25M),

Gimenez ($1.0M)

Nolasco commitment from trade ($4M), and

Garcia's commitment from trade ($4.2M - not the $11.8M shown on Spotrac).

 

That's $24.5M available before raises. Pressley, Gibson, Escobar, Grossman, Adrianza and May are arb-eligible. Dozier gets a $3M raise. The rest are under team control. A rough estimate would be a net drop of $15M. That brings to budget to $98M with no changes. This estimate assumes players already in the organization would fill the rotation and bullpen. Let's make it a $100M starting point.

 

I think the Twins should spend $130M/yr. Once they're competitive, market size and attendance should easily justify that payroll. By my estimate, the Twins should have $30M to spend in 2018.

 

Many of the Twins' core hit arbitration in 2018, but Mauer, Dozier and Santana (if less than 200 innings) come off the books. That's between $32M and $45M gone from the payroll in 2019. They'll add up to $20M back for the arbitrated contracts. Still, it's likely a net reduction of $25M they can spend in 2019.

 

The Twins have some flexibility if they're willing to have an average payroll. They could trade Santana and Dozier if they want more available money in 2018. They have prospects to trade if they want to go that route. It's all open - as long as the Pohlads are willing to pay for a competitive team. 

The Twins have 70.4 million committed to contracts next year before any options or arbitration.  That is Mauer, Santana, Hughes, Dozier, Castro and Park.  Sano, Rosario, Kepler,  Mejia, Buxton, Berrios,  Polanco, Rodgers, Duffy, Hildenberger, Busenitz,  Orourke and Vargas are pre arb and get about 550,000. That is 19 players, a few not likely to be with the club,  Grossman, May, Adrianza, Pressly, Gibson, Escobar, Tonkin  and Gimmenz are the Arb eligible.   Depending on the initial discussions, play of some in September half of those will be back.   Unless they decide to keep both Escobar and Gibson that is a likely payroll around  80 million. 

The team is not going to go nuts with long term contracts.  The non return on the Nolasco and Hughes contracts. The history of declining return on the Mauer and Morneau  extensions as well as the Hughes, Suzuki, Pelfrey extensions  should make the Pohlads fairly shy of long term deals for older players.  The team will sign one. Signing 3 as the OP thinks is likely out of the question.

Twins Revenue is not as Forbes says. From 2011 to last year the team lost a million paid attendance, They have decreased revenue per fan from $53 to 43. Despite this 70 million drop in revenue, the Twins gained in estimated revenue by 40 million. Something does  not add up.

The thought that the Twins would sign 3 players who would cost a draft choice  makes your article one of wishful thinking rather than one of analysis  That would mean the Twins are signing 3 of the top dozen players.  Last year they averaged 18 million a season.  The Twins are not going to have a 130 million payroll. Mauer and Hughes contracts are not going anywhere.  That leaves Santana's 13 million contract.  For 5 million more you are not going to gain much.

I literally do not know what you're talking about here.

You stated that Santana could cost a third round draft pick. The only way that happens is if Santana gets a qualifying offer.That would be likely.  How many players get qualifying offers? Last year thee were about a dozen. If the Twins are giving up only the third round pick for Santana they either tanked so bad the rest of this season  that they dropped past 10 teams and signed to QO free agents, or signed 3.  The AAV of the contracts handed out to QO players was 18 million. IIRC the average length of contact was for 4 years. What is so hard for you to understand about that?  Adding 3 contracts that would likely be closer to a 60 million a year addition is not going to happen. Yjay would be getting the payroll to the 140 million range. If Santana, and Dozier are traded, Escobar and Gibson are non tendered and Phil Hughes  decides it is not worth trying to earn 26.2 million then there would be a chance.  Realistically, that is not going to happen.

You stated that Santana could cost a third round draft pick. The only way that happens is if Santana gets a qualifying offer.That would be likely.  How many players get qualifying offers? Last year thee were about a dozen. If the Twins are giving up only the third round pick for Santana they either tanked so bad the rest of this season  that they dropped past 10 teams and signed to QO free agents, or signed 3.  The AAV of the contracts handed out to QO players was 18 million. IIRC the average length of contact was for 4 years. What is so hard for you to understand about that?  Adding 3 contracts that would likely be closer to a 60 million a year addition is not going to happen. Yjay would be getting the payroll to the 140 million range. If Santana, and Dozier are traded, Escobar and Gibson are non tendered and Phil Hughes  decides it is not worth trying to earn 26.2 million then there would be a chance.  Realistically, that is not going to happen.

Yes, Santana will get a qualifying offer.

For the rest of this, are you sure you're thinking of the upcoming CBA? 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/new-cba-changes-draft/#7DoLL7a1oCzpZM30.97

would you be so kind as the rules have changed to post where the Twins will fall under the revised revenue sharing plan There are teams that pay, teams that get money and teams that do not.. 

If I find it, I will. I haven't seen that list yet. If someone else has, feel free.

Great article! And I really appreciated the salary discussions.

Given that the offense seems to be clicking, I would rather spend a theoretic $18 million on starting pitching.

And here is a way-too-early opening day batting order (against a RH SP):

•2B - Brian Dozier

•1B - Joe Mauer

•CF - Byron Buxton

•3B - Miguel Sano

•LF - Eddie Rosario

•RF - Max Kepler

•DH -

•SS - Jorge Polanco

•C - Jason Castro

If I find it, I will. I haven't seen that list yet. If someone else has, feel free.

As baseball has reconfigures their criteria of revenue providing, revenue deficient and revenue balanced teams by city size and cable service numbers the team status is going to change. Without that list there is no real way to know what a mid sized market team will have to give up when they sign a free agent.

I'll say again this year what I said last year. I don't need the Twins to do anything fancy in free agency. I just want them to be proactive inking Rosario/Buxton/Sano/Kepler/Berrios/Polanco. They really wasted an opportunity to buy low on each of those guys last year. When guys are on the first or second year of their rookie wages, you can get them interested in advancing that pay day. Not so much as you go later.

Other than that, I don't see any big holes. 

1.) If you can trade Dozier for something great, do it. Otherwise I'm good letting him play out his deal and then getting a draft pick in compensation. He's a leader on this team and i don't know that anyone else is quite ready to step into those shoes. I'm not interested in the next contract but sometimes you just accept value, you don't try to deal it.

2.) You could go sign a thumper 1B/DH but man, the pickings look slim. Carlos Santana is going to get too many years and after that, I don't love anyone. I like the Twins internal options better - the committee design that gets ABs for the Garvers, Rookers and Escobars.

3.) Ink Joe to a two year extension for $15 mill. He wants to stay and he's a useful part of a 1B/DH platoon. If he were on the free agent market this year, he'd be a target for a lot of teams. Sometimes the best free agent at a position is the guy you already have. Let's avoid the drama of him in a contract year answering questions. And I gotta think your best chance at a bit of a hometown discount is after a year that the Twins are doing well. He'll want to be a part of this next stage.

4.) I'm okay signing a veteran bullpen arm or two but I don't wanna spend big money or commit lots of years. The Twins have a lot of guys coming back from injury, some intriguing arms in the pen already and a bevy of AAAA starters like Sledgers who may be ready to Taylor Rogers it. 

5.) The rotation is the place you could add. If the Twins find the right top end starter at the right price (Arrieta?) I will be happy. I'd also be okay with a 1 year placeholder deal on a veteran who profiles as a back of the rotation starter. The Twins still have Santana and Berrios and between May, Mejia, Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, Slegers and even Stewart, they can fill out a rotation well enough.

6.) Bring back Molly as long as there aren't huge issues behind the scene. He's gotten this team to overachieve and that makes 2 out of 3 years. That isn't entirely on him but give him a two to three year extension.