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Twins Starting Depth To Be Tested


Ted Schwerzler

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After being recalled following a two-start stint at Triple-A, Kyle Gibson was back in the Twins rotation. Against the Orioles on May 22, Gibson surrendered six earned runs on seven hits while walking four and striking out five. He got the win (pitcher wins are stupid), but there was a clear picture of a pitcher in over his head. For now, he'll remain in the rotation, but during the game, it was worth wondering what would happen next for Minnesota?

 

In an ideal world, Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, and Felix Jorge are all ready to compete at a significant level. That reality isn't one we're living in though. All three are at Double-A, and none are ready to make the jump to Triple-A or the big leagues any time soon. There's still a long term gameplan there, but expecting them to help Minnesota before late summer at the earliest is a fool's errand.

 

That leads us to upstate New York, and deciding what is available in Rochester. We have seen Nick Tepesch once this season. He lasted just 1.2 IP and while six of the seven runs he surrendered were unearned, it was an uninspiring performance unlikely to challenge big league hitters. If Kyle Gibson isn't the guy, and it's beginning to look like he may need more time figuring it out on the farm, then who is?

 

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine would likely be tasked with deciding between Aaron Slegers, David Hurlbut, and Jason Wheeler at Rochester. None of them are 40 man players, and of the trio, Slegers is arguably pitching the best this season. While Wheeler has been in big spots previously, and pitched well in 2016, he hasn't gotten off to a great start this season.

 

Slegers was a 5th round pick back in 2013 out of the University of Indiana. He's now 24 years old, and a relative non-prospect. What he's done however, is put forth a consistent track record at every stop through the Minnesota farm system. His professional ERA stands at 3.57 across 494.2 IP. In 2017, he's totaled a 4.25 ERA over 42.1 IP and rarely issues walks (1.9 BB/9). He's never going to be a high velocity guy, and his career 6.5 K/9 is probably lofty at the next level. While the peripherals aren't flashy, there's reason to believe he's capable.

 

Thus far, the Twins have used seven starters, and there's a strong likelihood that number trends towards 10 by the time the dust settles. There's nothing more coveted in the game of baseball than starting pitcher, and even moreso, that of the quality variety. It's not fair to assume that every arm called up to the big league rotation is going to be an impact prospect, but if there's a place the Twins organization is starved, it's there.

 

At multiple points this season, the question as to whether or not Minnesota should deal Ervin Santana has come up. If there's something that highlights the necessity, it could be this. Should the Twins be presented with an offer that returns a solid pitching prospect or two, close to big league ready, there's a lot of appeal there. Right now, this team is much more exciting than many would have imagined, but there's no staying power in the starting pitching.

 

Over the winter, it makes a lot of sense for the Twins to supplement their offensive youth with an impact starter. There's a few names out there that make sense, and the club has money to spend. If the organization can roll out a rotation that includes a big name or two, along with Jose Berrios and Adalberto Mejia being internal options, they'll be well positioned a year from now.

 

It may have to be Aaron Slegers in the short term, and if Kyle Gibson continues to struggle, there's no reason not to give him a shot. Pinning your hopes to that level of prospect for the future though, doesn't make a lot of sense. The Twins have some top prospect arms in the system, but they'll need a safety net regardless, and having more impact arms is never going to be a bad thing.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

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The scary part is that by the end of the year 10 starters may well be necessary. As step one I would package 2 of our AA arms for a proven starter. In an emergency situation, I can't help but think Wilk and Tepesch types will be needed, but we have more than enough pie-in-the sky to get one proven starter at this point in time.

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As step one I would package 2 of our AA arms for a proven starter.

 

I respectfully disagree, Howie. Each of those three AA arms have bigger potential than probably a guy like Mejia or Santiago, so there's no reason to mortgage the future just because the team is out-performing expectations this year. Stick to the plan.

 

Personally, once he gets a couple more starts, I expect we'll see Nik Turley before Slegers, Hurlbut or Wheeler. And does Gibson make it to the weekend before they swap him out for Mejia?

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Hopefully they can skip Gibson this round. We'll see.

 

The Twins should be pushing their AA-starters. Sadly, Stewart has pitched himself out of the mix (these guys, they have every opportunity right now to make the big leagues).

 

Santana and Hughes aren't long term. One can bring us something of worth, the other has to be considered gone. Santiago will be a free agent. Gibson is the new Mike Pelfrey. We don't need to give innings to Tepesch or Turley or others of that ilk if a possible prospect can pitch equally as good.

 

If we win games and make it, good for the Twins. But NO selling the system at this point.

 

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The above is why I do not like the idea of drafting a 1B hitting prospect 1-1. And why this season is still very much smoke and mirrors. The pitching is just not their for long term succes. If, the season stumbles, Santana should be traded for depth. But regardless, their is no discernible light at the end of the SP tunnel.

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It's time they gave Wheeler a shot. He burns innings, and his SO rate is steadily climbing (0 runs, 5 hits, no walks, and 9 K's in a 4-0 win in Rochester last night!). 

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Just as every cloud has a silver lining, in this case, every silver lining (that the Twins are 10-15 games better than expected) has a cloud. The proverbial cloud is that the "plan" to use 2017 as a year to evaluate, gain experience and lose fewer than 100 games has been upset.

 

Sure, the temptation might be there to strike while the AL Central is down, but trading prospects is very short sighted. Besides, by most metrics, say the Top 100, the Twins really don't have that many to trade.

 

Sure, give Wheeler and / or Hurlbut chances. There is no real cost to "bringing them up too early".

 

But as for light at the end of the tunnel, there are three at AAA, at least one in A plus (if they go college pitcher at 1:1, 1:35 and / or 2:1, there could be a few arms by 2019.

 

However, and I've written this many times, in 2019, the Twins' payroll will be ridiculously small, so there will be not excuse to NOT sign two $30 million / year starters.

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The above is why I do not like the idea of drafting a 1B hitting prospect 1-1. And why this season is still very much smoke and mirrors. The pitching is just not their for long term succes. If, the season stumbles, Santana should be traded for depth. But regardless, their is no discernible light at the end of the SP tunnel.

I disagree. There is light at the end of the tunnel – and it's Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero, and Felix Jorge. Of course, in reality, that tunnel has no discernible end. Hopefully, there are kids that will be born in 20 years who will be pitching for the Minnesota Twins someday... And maybe their grandkids on a later someday...

 

Yes, the Twins may be able to sign two really good starting pitchers this summer, but I'm not convinced that will solve or even reduce the problem. 

 

Gonsalves, Romero and Jorge – and others at AA right now, don't look like the light at the end of the tunnel; nearly all of the starters have more than a 4 ERA at AA. They're not ready yet.

 

Aaron Siegers and/or David Hurlburt may be part of the short term solution, at AAA. 

 

Ultimately, the draft may be the best help for a medium-term solution  Only time will tell.

 

Personally, I'd send Gibson back down, and give Justin Haley, Tyler Duffey and/or Adam Wilk a shot at starting again. They're all on the 25-man roster, and they all have experience starting. Duffey seems to be doing very well this year.

 

The Twins could try a 4.5 man rotation – using all four current starters plus using one of the three, say Duffey, as a spot-starter - just when needed. It gives guys like Santana and Berrios more starts than a traditional 5-man rotation. And it would get them through this season.

 

Just an idea. Start stretching one of them out...

 

 

 

 

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