Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account
  • entries
    10
  • comments
    41
  • views
    21,066

My 2016 offseason plan


diehardtwinsfan

2,307 views

 Share

Twins Video

103. That's truly a terrible number, and it's been some time since the Twins have been able to earn the top pick overall. This season was an abomination, especially given the high hopes that Twins fans had coming in. There's no need to really go over what went wrong.There's a number of things, but pitching most definitely tops the list. It finished second and third as well.

 

Falvey and the new GM (presumably Levine at this point) will likely have their hands full as they tackle what will be an interesting offseason. The offensive core of the team is largely there, and if they don't move quickly, they will be looking at decent pitching by the time the offense leaves I'm going to assume we won't be a playoff team in 2017. We might repeat 2015 if things fall right. I do think the team as a whole underperformed, but not to the tune of a 30 game swing that they would need to make in order to be competitive. I'm not going to punt on 2017, but I am going to commit to getting some young pitching and see what we have with the guys who are ready.

 

 

Tender/nontender:

 

I'm going to tender Gibson, Escobar, Kintzler, and Pressley. They are all relatively cheap, and while none were really great, they've shown promise to varying degrees. The pen wasn't very good, but with plenty of help on the way, I think you have to hold out hope for some of them.

 

On the nontender side, I'd attempt to trade Plouffe, Santiago, and Milone. I suspect that all will be non-tendered, but this definitely qualifies for the take what you can get... and I'm not expecting much.

 

Mauer/Perkins/Hughes:

 

I start dialing Mauer's role back a bit. I'd want him playing against RHers as often as possible, but I'm telling him to plan on playing some 3rd and occasional OF. Vargas earned a shot to start and I want to see what we have in Park. He was impressive in April, got hurt and tried playing through it. He was pretty good when demoted to Rochester and re-injured the same wrist injury leading to surgery and shut down. He's going to get a shot. If either Vargas or Park fails, that puts Mauer back at 1B/DH. Bottom line is that I don't want the 2 years remaining on Mauer's contract to prevent the Twins from seeing what they have in Vargas and Park. The same goes true for Palka and Walker in the minors, as I fully expect to see one of them in the majors at some point.

 

Hughes will be slated for the pen, with a chance to earn a starting role. His injury is a difficult one to return from, and as such he's not in my plans. Perkins is not in my plans either. He will certainly get a shot to regain his old role should he be healthy this spring, but both of these guys have huge question marks. Perkins is only signed through 2017, so he's an easy one going forward as he's likely going to spend some or all of it on the 60 day DL.

 

Trades:

 

On the trade side, I'm firmly shopping Dozier. He will get value, the question is what. The Yankees might be a good fit, but I doubt Sanchez in on the table and most of their good pitching prospects will be starting in AA, where most of our good ones will start. For now, I'm going to pretend that the Pirates will trade Glasnow and prospects for him. I don't know if they would do that, but that is the type of trade I'd want to target, namely high upside pitching that is major league ready or close to it. I wouldn't be against a Yankees trade that netted some guys like Justus Sheffield, but that wouldn't be my first plan (unless the Yankees were to offer Gary Sanchez).

 

Santana would be shopped as well. I'd seek more catching help here than pitching, as no team with MLB ready high upside pitching is going to trade to trade it to acquire a MLB pitcher. They would certainly trade guys in the lower minors, which I'd be fine with, but I'd hope Santana could add some competition in at the C spot. If not, I'd take a nice package of prospects if one was offered. I would be just as willing to keep Santana around too, but I do not think his value will be any higher this July, and there's plenty of risk should the team not move him.

 

 

Coaching changes:

 

While I suspect Falvey and the new GM will stick with Molitor for 2017, I'd probably make new on field management a priority. After watching this team, I'm convinced that Molitor is not the guy you want at the helm for managing young help. His treatment of guys like Berrios, Polanco, and Chargois this season was head scratching at best. While I recognize that a manager doesn't have a whole lot of options to work with when it comes to getting performance out of young major league players, I don't think Molitor showed that he was suited for that task. My preference is to find a manager who specializes in developing young talent, as transitioning and development are probably the biggest needs this organization faces. I would likely look closely at some of Joe Maddon's lieutenants in Chicago, and I would give one of them the top spot.

 

International:

 

If Shohei Otani is posted, I would bid heavily on him. Any potential Cuban posting would be of interest too. Those could potentially change the landscape of the final roster, but I'm not going to assume any are on the roster come opening day.

 

Free Agency:

 

I like what Buxton did in September, but one month isn't going to change my opinion on him that much. I'm getting a potential 1 year filler that can serve as a starter or capable 4th OF, and I will not be handing Buxton the job. He will be the starter if he earns it or in Rochester if he does not. I would target a guy like Austin Jackson or Carlos Gomez. Players like that are likely going to get a 1 year contract to rebuild value, and should be able to be shipped away relatively easily should Buxton finally earn the job.

 

I would sign one of Gregg Holland, Drew Storen, or some other buy low RP candidate to bolster the pen.

 

40 man additions/removal:

As of this writing, 38 names are on the 40 man. Dozier is traded. I'm assuming that Santana ends up being traded as well, though I'm not certain he will get that catcher that they need. That takes us to 36. Non tendering or trading Plouffe and Santiago (Milone is already gone) takes us to 34.

 

I suspect one of Hughes/Perkins returns and gets off the 60 day, but I think the odds clearly say at least one is likely to be gone for 2017 as well. Likewise, a free agent CF on a one year deal takes up a spot, as does a reliever like Holland/Storen. Regardless, you cannot count on that, so you have to keep their spots for now.

 

Other DFA guys: Centeno, Grossman, DSan, Boshers, Landa. This takes us from 34 down to 29.

Players to add: Garver, Granite, Palka, Romero, Jorge, Zach Jones, Vielma or Goodrum (as I need a MI backup). I leave Thrope off b/c I doubt anyone takes him, but if I'm unsure, he's a must add. That brings us back to 35. I'm assuming that we get 1 major league pitcher for Dozier and for fun, let's just assume a catcher is picked up too. F

 

Finally, since I used FA to pick up a 1 year option for CF as well as an RP, I'm up to 40. I've also got some flexibility in guys like Murphy/Wimmers/Tonkin who I'd be quick to drop if needed, but would be willing to give a chance as long as there isn't a huge roster crunch. I'm fully expecting Hughes and/or Perkins to make their way back to the 60 day DL this spring, but you cannot really do anything about that until it happens.

 

Final Roster:

 

C - Murphy/acquisition/Garver

1B - Park/Mauer

DH - Vargas/Mauer

2B - Polanco

SS - Escobar

3B - Sano/Mauer

LF - Rosario/Mauer

CF - Acquisition/Buxton

RF - Kepler/Mauer

 

Bench: Mauer, Vielma, Garver or Murphy, CF acquisition (note that if Buxton starts in the minors, I'd likely consider bringing Palka up and letting Rosario be the backup CF)

 

SP - Gibson, May, potential Dozier acquisition piece, Berrios, and Mejia.

RB - Kintzler, Chargois, Pressley, FA acquisition, Hughes, Tonkin, rotating spot between minor league options (Melotakis, Duffey, Hildenberger, Burdi, Reed).

 Share

5 Comments


Recommended Comments

Non-tendering a guy like Santiago is how you wind up with guys like Albers and Dean pitching MLB ballgames for you. I wouldn't do it.

 

I also would not be so anxious to let Centeno go. You are going with Garver, but he has never caught a major league game. I would rather he earn the position rather than be handed it.

 

Grossman may have had his career year with the Twins. That said, he led the team in OBP. Cannot imagine why you would let that guy just walk away. And if you trade him you need not replace him with a CF. Besides Buxton, both Rosario and Kepler played a lot of CF in the minors and either can handle it (if) when Buxton gets days off.

 

Lots of interesting things to think about. Thanks for the article!

Link to comment

well, I'll stand behind a non-tender/trade to Santiago.  You know what he is... not really that much.  You give the young guys a shot and there's still one starter in Duffey either in AAA or in long relief, and with Gonsalves likely starting in AAA and another option in Wheeler, I'm quite fine with it. I'm not a Dean fan, but I'd rather go with a guy like Wheeler (likely another Dean) than letting Santiago trot out there and put up a 5 ERA and cost 8M.  Not worth it.

Link to comment

Disagree with:

 

•Santiago, we need pitching, so we trade a competent pitcher?

 

•Santana ... ditto., double, as he is actually good.

 

•OF filler. Buxton needs to play, along with Kepler, Escobar, and any of the guys knocking: Palka, Walker, English, Granite. Don't want any rehash vets.

 

•Mauer is a platoon guy for me. 3 years of pretty steady decline. Let him and Vargas battle for 1B, and Park and Vargas battle for DH. Sunken cost is what it is, only 2 more years. Ease him out gracefully, like Manchester United is doing with Rooney. Don't want Joe taking at bats from Sano or the outfielders.

 

Overall, nice thoughts though.

Link to comment

Problem with this projection is the two or three trade pieces and not knowing whether they will be traded.  

Suzuki is gone(FA).

Nontender Plouffe, Milone, Tonkin,  one of Boshers or O'Rourke, DSan(maybe but do not see a role for him here next year unless Dozier is traded).  Kinztler(you can pickup another of this type and they tend to have good years and bad years), and if you need more spots you have some more marginal bullpen types to remove. 

Trade if possible Dozier, Plouffe, one of Gibson(or non tender) or Santana.

That should leave room for Palka, Granite, Jorge, Thorpe, Romero, and whatever other young players you feel the need to add(Zake Jones and or others).

Try and trade Vargas/Park since both will not be needed for two years and after that you will need a third baseman, not a firstbaseman.

To trade Dozier you need a possible #1 or #2 starter, that means Urias from the Dodgers or Glasnow or Tallion from the Pirates(if you ship Gibson back or even maybe Stewart I am fine with that, if they want Santana they will have to pay a much higher price in pitching or catching prospects.  

Link to comment
Guest
Add a comment...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...