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Hector "Houdini" Santiago: New Pitcher Excels With Runners On


Tom Froemming

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In the wake of the Twins acquiring Hector Santiago from the Angels, some have questioned how big of an upgrade he'll be over Ricky Nolasco, mainly pointing to Nolasco's vastly superior numbers in terms of FIP (fielding independent pitching). While the peripheral stats may be in Nolasco's favor, they don't tell the whole story.

 

The biggest divide between these two players is how they bear down when things start to not go in their favor. If you take a look into how each pitcher performs with runners on, it's clear that while Nolasco crumbles, Santiago shines

 

Career FIP vs. ERA

Santiago: 4.63 FIP, 3.68 ERA (0.95 worse)

Nolasco: 3.85 FIP, 4.58 ERA (0.73 better)

 

So you can see that both pitchers have been FIP busters, with Santiago looking a great deal worse than the ERA he has pitched to. These kinds of gaps are abnormal for veteran pitchers. Just for reference, Ervin Santana's FIP and ERA are only off by a difference of 0.11 over his career (4.24 FIP, 4.13 ERA).

 

FIP is a great indicator of pitcher performance because it only looks at home runs, walks, hit batsmen and strikeouts. As the name would indicate, any plays in which defense is a factor are not taken into account. Another thing FIP doesn't take into account, however, is game situation. Obviously, it's better to not allow batters to reach safely, but Santiago has limited damage with runners on at an elite level. Even just skimming the surface it's easy to see this is where Santiago gains a considerable amount of value over Nolasco.

 

Career with men on base

Santiago: .216/.322/.336 (.658 OPS)

Nolasco: .294/.345/.448 (.793)

 

Career with RISP

Santiago: .184/.300/.271 (.571)

Nolasco: .287/.347/.437 (.784)

 

Career with 2 outs and RISP

Santiago: .173/.310/.248 (.558)

Nolasco: .264/.355/.397 (.752)

 

To put some perspective on just how excellent those numbers are for Santiago, Johan Santana was only slightly better over his career with men on base (.647 OPS) but not nearly as good with RISP (.623) or with RISP and two outs (.606).

 

Santiago's greatest weakness is walks, and looking at his excellent July it's a wonder how he managed to put up such great results with how many free passes he issued. But, while he did walk 21 batters, in the following at bat opponents went just 1-for-18 with eight strikeouts and two walks (for those of you tallying things up at home, he was pulled for a reliever after one of those walks). That is a small sample, but it shows a slice of how effective Santiago can be at stepping up, wiggling out of jams and neutralizing the walks.

 

There are people who don't believe in the concept of clutch, or even pitchers adjusting their approach based on game situation (pitching to the score for example). But after over 650 career innings, it seems like a stretch to look at Santiago's excellent track record in adverse situations and just say he's just been lucky. He clearly is unfazed by the pressure of pitching with men on base.

 

Hector Santiago plays with fire but rarely gets burned. If he can continue to demonstrate this skill, he should also continue to outperform Ricky Nolasco with ease.

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League average LOB% is around 72% .  Santiago is a little better at 75%, Not exceptional but a whole lot better than Nolasco.  Nolasco was down around 65%

Thank you for bringing that to the table.

 

Of 152 pitchers who have thrown at least 150 innings combined over the past two seasons, Santiago ranks 16th with a 78.3 LOB%. Nolasco is dead last at 62%.

 

But Hector was particularly fantastic at leaving men on in 2015. This season is very solid, but definitely less impressive. Santiago's 75.9 LOB% is 39th among the 98 pitchers with at least 100 innings. Nolasco is 95th at 64.5%.

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The more I look into the numbers, the more fascinating Hector Santiago becomes. Since 2013, there have been 81 pitchers who've thrown 500 innings. He ranks ...

 

1st with a 49.0 fly ball %

2nd with a 17.5 line drive %

6th with a 12.6 infield fly ball %

6th with a .271 BABIP

14th with a 76.8 LOB%

 

He is elite in the areas he excels in. On the ugly side, only Liriano and Ubaldo have a worse BB/9 than Santiago's 3.94 over that span. But I think that may be part of his strategy. He keeps guys off balance and doesn't challenge hitters when the count's in their advantage ... or maybe he just has terrible command and has been scraping by on a high-wire act that's unsustainable.

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I thought it was a huge upgrade just looking at surface stats the past few seasons, plus being younger and a lefty. But the numbers here make me feel even better about the deal. Our rotation for 2017 is nowhere near elite, but I honestly like it better than this season and see some potential there.

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