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Can Twins Find The Next Ryan Madson?


Tom Froemming

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With the Minnesota Twins inactive at the Winter Meetings, many fans and experts are wondering what the team's plan is in regards to its bullpen. The club is said to be focused on getting a lefty, but with so many of the current in-house options being unproven at the major league level, they could use any help they can get.

 

While some are feeling disenfranchised by the team's lack of action, it may not take a blockbuster move to vastly improve the bullpen for 2016. Just take a look at what Ryan Madson did for the World Series champion Kansas City Royals last year.

 

After spending several years as a top setup man, Madson finally got the chance to close for the Phillies in 2011. At what looked to be the highpoint of his career, Madson’s elbow blew out and missed three full seasons. The Royals signed Madson on Jan. 4 of last year, and ended up only paying him around $1 million. At the time of the signing, not many experts expected him to crack Kansas City’s deep, talented bullpen.

 

Shockingly, Madson broke camp with the Royals and looked like the guy we saw closing out games for Philadelphia. There wasn’t a drop in velocity or performance, as Madson had a 2.13 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over 68 appearances.

 

Last week, the 35-year-old landed a three-year, $22 million contract from Oakland, of all places. While Madson’s case is unique, given the extended absence, we’ve seen this act before with rags to riches relievers. Could the Twins manage to find a diamond in the rough in this year’s free agent crop?

 

While attractive options such as Tyler Clippard and Antonio Bastardo are still there for the taking, the free agent market has dramatically thinned over the past week. While we can’t be sure of the front office’s lack of movement in addressing the bullpen, some Twins experts have suggested there may have been some sticker shock at the prices.

 

Other teams haven’t had a problem opening their pocketbooks, but it’s completely reasonable for the Twins to be weary of relievers, since they have long been the most volatile group of players. How many guys have we seen go from top closers or setup men one year to DFAed the next?

 

While there are certainly reasons not to shell out big bucks on the bullpen, it’s still an area the club needs to address this winter. Here are some free agents still available, who if healthy could be great low risk high reward candidates.

 

Former Closers Down On Their Luck

 

Neftali Feliz, 27, RHP

Feliz’s stock isn’t nearly as low as Madson’s was a year ago, but I wouldn’t be at all shocked if he turns in a great performance on a one-year deal in 2016 and lands himself a lucrative three-year pact next offseason. He had an ugly 6.38 ERA over 48 innings between Texas and Detroit last year, but saw his velocity jump back closer to where it was when he was closing for the Rangers (94.6 mph).

 

Joe Nathan, 41, RHP

Everybody loves a reunion, right? He’s going to have to prove he’s healthy after undergoing Tommy John (again), but it shouldn’t take much of a commitment to sign the Twins’ all-time saves leader. Nathan’s motivation to keep pitching seems to be to end his career on his terms. He’s likely going to be more inclined to go somewhere he’s comfortable and has an opportunity to contribute. What better place than Minnesota?

 

Long Shot Lefties

 

Sean Marshall, 33 LHP

Marshall’s recent history makes him a great comp to Madson at this time last year because he’s thrown just 24 ⅓ innings in the majors over the past three seasons (0 in 2015). But, he did get close enough from returning from shoulder surgery the Reds considered activating him from the DL in late September. From 2010-2012, Marshall had a 2.47 ERA and 10.35 K/9 while averaging over 70 innings a season. The Twins have an obvious need for a lefty.

 

Eric O’Flaherty, 30 LHP

O’Flaherty posted a 1.99 ERA over five seasons with the Braves.. At the end of that run in Atlanta, his elbow broke down, causing him to miss most of the 2013 & ‘14 seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery. While he was effective in his initial return two years ago, but something went wrong last season, as he pitched to a brutal 8.10 ERA over 30 innings between Oakland and the Mets. Translation: He’ll be cheap. He turns 31 in February, so it’s possible he has another good run left in his arm.

 

More Broken Relievers!

 

Bobby Parnell, 31, RHP

Parnell was expected to be the closer for the Mets in 2014, but never looked right in spring training and was shut down after just one appearance. He had Tommy John (sensing a trend?) and while he returned to the Mets’ bullpen, he didn’t look the same. He had a 6.38 ERA over 24 innings, but on the plus side he’s now healthy and approaching two full years from undergoing surgery. In the 2010, 2012 & 2013 seasons, Parnell had an ERA under 2.85, averaged at least 7.9 K/9 and his highest walk rate was 2.6 BB/9. 2011 was a down year, but that looks like an outlier when you look at his track record when he was healthy.

 

Craig Stammen, 31 RHP

Stammen is another former top setup man who has fallen from favor over the past two seasons. A late bloomer, he broke out with the Nationals as a 28-year-old in 2012, posting a 2.34 ERA and 8.9 K/9 over 88 ⅓ innings. He followed that up with another excellent season in which he had a 2.76 ERA with 8.7 K/9 over 81 ⅔ innings. All that work seems to have piled up, however, as Stammen was underwhelming in 2014 before falling apart and only throwing four innings with Washington last season. He’s apparently healthy after recovering from a torn flexor tendon. The Nats were expecting him to be ready for spring training, but they decided to non-tender him this winter.

 

Finding the Next Wade Davis

 

Brandon Morrow, 31, RHP

Everyone seems to be trying to emulate the Royals this winter, for good reason, so why don’t we try to find the next Wade Davis? Morrow was once a dominant reliever with the Mariners, and has struck out over a batter per inning over his career, most of which has been as a starter. Morrow has been a starter the last six seasons, but he has managed only 54 ⅓, 33 ⅓ and 33 innings over the past three years. He likely would like to remain a starter, but maybe a team could convince him and his agent he’d be better off and more likely to stay healthy back in the bullpen. He is recovering from a shoulder injury, but could be ready for spring training.

 

Tim Lincecum, 31, RHP

Saving the most recognizable name for last. The two-time Cy Young Award winner had hip surgery in September, but hs is also expecting to be ready to go right around the start of spring training. Much like Morrow, there’s a case that could be made that Lincecum would be better off in relief, but he’s likely going to be looking for a chance to start somewhere. Timmy only has thrown 15 innings out of the pen during the regular season, but he was a key piece of the Giants relief corps during the team’s 2012 World Series championship run.

Those are just eight guys that jumped out at me, but there about a dozen other guys who are intriguing names as well. Obviously, none of the players I mentioned above inspire much confidence, but then again, neither did Ryan Madson at this time last offseason.

 

After taking a deeper look into what’s out there, I feel the Twins could add some upside to the bullpen without breaking the bank. Adding a Clippard or Bastardo would be ideal, but there are other ways to get Eddie Guardado some more help out in the pen.

 

The real question is who is the guy? The Twins haven’t had much luck with these reclamation projects. Joel Zumaya and Rich Harden immediately come to mind. There’s a low percentage chance any of these guys makes a huge impact in 2016, but you never know with relievers.

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I think this is the way they are going to go. I would be surprised if we sign Clipppard or Bastardo.  You can make a pretty good case against the 3-4 year deals for relievers. I would like to see one solid reliever and then a gamble or two.

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I have been on the Marshall train for awhile, he was a really really nasty lefty previously.  Reclamation projects in the pen can pay off big, really any high upside pitcher going there is worth the risk because they can pay off or be replaced easily without it being super expensive. 

 

TR likes to play it safe and go low risk low upside guys (Fien, Duesing, Gurrier) which peak at being a decent bullpen.  I would much rather have some flame outs along with some studs, There are some young kids coming that may fit that bill, but if they are blocked by a stud you either have a good bullpen or a valuable trade piece. 

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Marshall would be my pick. Between he and Runzler, you'd be increasing the likelihood of finding a talented and veteran steal on the rebound. From there, you have the likes of Rogers and others for the second LH in the pen. (Milone?)

 

In the past, the Twins did well converting LH starters such as West, Reyes and Swindell, for example. I haven't taken the time to really look at the LHSP market to see if there is a likely candidate for a move of this nature. But it should be considered.

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This is a great article. Thanks for doing the research and posting it here. At this point, if the Twins aren't willing or able to bring in a very good arm that pushes May, Jepsen and even Perkins down a slot, then I think they should just try to fill out the back of the bullpen with a few fliers and hope that between reclamation projects and internal options they can be effective.

 

This reminds me of an article Sam Miller wrote a couple years ago about the A's bullpen, back when it was really good and really cheap. He documented all the work that went into it. Hopefully it is no longer behind the BP paywall. If it is, this is a pretty good summary:

 

"So yes, you can build an amazing bullpen. You can spend about $8 million on the entire group. You can do it by trading things you don’t want, scavenging for things nobody else wants, and asking other teams nicely, and letting your low-minors position players indulge their fantasies. It just takes 30 or 40 arms to make it work. And heaven help you if, instead of six or seven useful relievers out of those 40, you end up with only four."

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21767

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This is a great article. Thanks for doing the research and posting it here. At this point, if the Twins aren't willing or able to bring in a very good arm that pushes May, Jepsen and even Perkins down a slot, then I think they should just try to fill out the back of the bullpen with a few fliers and hope that between reclamation projects and internal options they can be effective.

 

This reminds me of an article Sam Miller wrote a couple years ago about the A's bullpen, back when it was really good and really cheap. He documented all the work that went into it. Hopefully it is no longer behind the BP paywall. If it is, this is a pretty good summary:

 

"So yes, you can build an amazing bullpen. You can spend about $8 million on the entire group. You can do it by trading things you don’t want, scavenging for things nobody else wants, and asking other teams nicely, and letting your low-minors position players indulge their fantasies. It just takes 30 or 40 arms to make it work. And heaven help you if, instead of six or seven useful relievers out of those 40, you end up with only four."

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21767

Thanks for sharing, that's a good read. And yes, it is available for free.

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