Signing relievers to multi-year free agent deals is a risky proposition.

Dave Cameron had these numbers in a study from 2010.

 

As a group, teams have paid for premium production and instead received the same level of performance that they could have expected if they had signed minor league free agents. The evidence couldn’t be any stronger: signing guys like Guerrier and Crain to three year deals is just throwing money away. It’s not that they’re bad pitchers; it’s that relief pitchers are so prone to huge swings in performance that trying to project the long term future of any of these guys is simply folly.

I wondered if anything had changed since the study and the new free agency rules. There were 11 non-closer relievers signed prior to the 2013 season to multi year deals.

Jeremy Affeldt (2013-2015), 3 years, $18 million: $-6.6 million(Fangraphs)

Mike Adams (2013-2014), 2 years, $12 million: $0.1 million(Fangraphs)

Jason Grilli (2013-2014), 2 years, $6.75 million: $14.3 million(Fangraphs)

Joel Peralta (2013-2014), 2 years, $6 million: $8.8 million(Fangraphs)

Sean Burnett (2013-2014), 2 years, $8 million: $-0.5 million(Fangraphs)

Randy Choate (2013-2015), 3 years, $7.5 million: $6.6 million(Fangraphs)

Tom Gorzelanny (2013-2014), 2 years, $5.7 million: $7.3 million(Fangraphs)

Jonathan Broxton (2013-2015), 3 years, $21 million: $4.9 million(Fangraphs)

Kyuji Fujikawa (2013-2014), 2 years, $9.2 million: $1.1 million(Fangraphs)

Brandon League (2013-2014), 3 years, $22.5 million: $-3.3 million(Fangraphs)

Joakim Soria (2013-2014), 2 years, $8 million: $12.3 million(Fangraphs)

Teams spent $124.65 million for 26 years of relievers. Their return on the investment was $45 million. Peralta and Gorzelanny were solid modest investments. Grilli had an all star season as a closer. Soria pitched well when healthy averaging 34 innings a season.

As a group these relievers provided little value. They averaged 38 innings per year of mediocre relief. The same kind of relief the Twins have been able to find among the likes of Burton and Boyer. Do we have confidence the Twins can find the reliever that will by among the minority in this year's group and provide good value the next two or three season? I am not. I am not confident any team has the skill to find that value.

The Twins need relievers. That is without question. The question is whether signing 30 something reliever in the free agent market is the answer. I think the Twins dollars are better spent elsewhere. Go with the young players. Continue to sign guys like Boyer, Burton and Stauffer that will take a one year deal. The Twins success rate with those guys is no worse than the success rate in Cameron's study or the 2013 group. It is also much easier to cut ties with a guy on a one year deal than a guy they just signed to 3/15. If it doesn't work out, solid relievers can be found every July.