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Odd Man (Men) Out?


stringer bell

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n 2016, barring a trade, the Twins will have five players under the age of 26 who profile to be good or better outfielders. Five of these players will have played for the Twins, and the sixth (Max Kepler) might make his debut this September. Here's a look at all six, with my view of strengths and weaknesses:

 

Oswaldo Arcia--Strengths: Big Time left handed power. In 853 Twins' plate appearances, he has 36 homers and a .437 slugging average. Pedigree of hitting. Going into this year, Arcia dominated the minor leagues, hitting .314 with a .375 OBP, and played each level young for his age. Charisma. He's an emotional player, who loves to do well and celebrate his success. Weaknesses: Fielding. Watching Arcia in the field has ranged from entertaining to embarrassing. He has a good arm and covers enough ground, but has let several balls clank off his glove or fall to the ground. He has been guilty of taking bad at-bats to the field, losing focus and playing fundamentally unsound defense. Strikeouts. Even in this high-K era, Arcia qualifies as a strikeout machine. He has whiffed 259 times in his 853 PAs, well over 30% of the time. Platoon splits. Arcia has struggled against lefties. His OPS+ vs. port siders is 67 with a batting average of .231.

 

Byron Buxton--Strengths: Tools, Obvious to all, Buxton has a wealth of athletic tools. He is the fastest man to ever wear a Twins uni, he has impressive bat speed and plentiful strength to hit for average and power, and a fine arm plus great fielding instincts. Work ethic. With all the tools, Buxton is both coachable and a hard worker. He profiles as a leadoff hitter with 50+ stolen base speed who would transition to the middle of the order. Weaknesses: Unproveness (is that a word?). Buxton has only 40 plate appearances and didn't thrive, hitting under .200. The slowest to develop of Buxton's tools are his hitting. He has started slowly at each level.Injuries. Buxton missed almost all of last year with three injuries. He only played a handful of games for the Twins before going on the DL.

 

Aaron Hicks--Strengths: Again, tools. Hicks profiles as above average in all five tools. He isn't off the charts in any category, but is a fast runner with a cannon arm, he can reach the seats and reach base and cover ample ground in the outfield. Selectivity. As a hitter, Hicks chases less than most young players, and has always drawn his share of walks. Since coming back to the team this year, he has remained selective, while being a more aggressive as a hitter. Weaknesses: Platoon splits. Hicks lifetime average vs. right handers is below .200 (.568 OPS), while hitting almost 100 points higher vs. lefties and has an OPS of .860. Looking only at 2015, the splits are still there. he's hitting .237 (.639 OPS) against right handers, but continues to have a dominant side, hitting .404 with a 1.092 OPS against left handed pitching. Previous struggles. Hicks was a failure in 2013 and a disappointment in 2014, if he slumps will he tumble back to that level?

 

Max Kepler--Strengths: Projectable sweet swing. From the start Kepler has always looked the part of a fine hitter. He hadn't played much baseball when signed by the Twins and needed plenty of time to get things in order, but he's always projected as a fine hitter.Athletic. Kepler is tall, but fast. He might lead his league in triples (passing Buxton) and has stolen 13 bases in 2/3 of a season. League Dominance. As of yesterday, Kepler led the SL, in hitting, on-base, slugging, and OPS. Versatility. Kepler is a lefty all the way, but has played all three outfield positions plus first base. He projects as a good defender at the corners, Weaknesses: Two levels to go. Kepler is only at AA, he hasn't played an inning at AAA or in the majors. Injuries. Max has had his share of injuries, which probably slowed his development to this point. He missed the Futures Game with a sore shoulder. Platoon splits. Going into this year, Kepler had struggled against left handed pitching. He has solved lefties this year, with an OPS above .850. Lack of Power. Kepler has only six homers this year, three in the last week. Power is often the last tool to come forward, but it is possible that at his peak, even if he blossoms, his line might more resemble Joe Mauer than Bryce Harper or Mike Trout.

 

Eddie Rosario--Strengths: Solid Stroke. Eddie has been viewed as a solid hitter and carried that to the major leagues. Stands in against lefties. No discernible platoon splits. He's able to hit for about the same amount of power regardless of which hand the pitcher throws with. Aggressive. Rosario gets his hacks, plays in the field and runs the bases aggressively. It has caused some outs on the bases and a couple of errors, but the net has been positive. Versatile defender. Rosario has started multiple games in all three outfield positions and done fine at all three. He has enough range to play center and enough arm to play right. Weaknesses: Over aggressive. The flip side of Rosario's aggressiveness is that he chases pitches, runs into outs and takes too many risks in the field. Not dominant. Doubtful that Rosario will ever be a slugger or contend for a batting championship. He profiles mostly as "good", but not elite. Strike against him. Eddie was suspended for a drug of abuse, meaning that any other infractions would cost him a season.

 

I am assuming that Kepler will be ready to help the Twins by sometime in the first half of next year, if not sooner. With the DH, the Twins could carry four of these five guys and have enough at-bats for all of them. However, five outfielders needing more than 500 plate appearances is one too many. Do the Twins deal one of these guys to get bullpen help, a catcher or a shortstop? Since they are all young, I would think that they need to choose one guy and give him up to address positions of relative weakness. My pick would be Arcia, mostly because of his struggles in the field. A case could be made for Hicks, Rosario or Kepler.

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The thing with Arcia, he ahs power. As does Sano. As does Walker. SOmeone ahs to DH and we don't want Kepler or Mauer DHing, although if Kepler pars as a first abseman, we probably will have those two splitting those two jobs in a couple of years. We have to see how Sano does in the field. If he can't play third, can he play the outfield, which compounds the mess even more. 

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Actually, with the DH, Kepler possibly playing some 1B, you COULD keep all 5 if you only keep one utility INF. I don't think that's practical, however, and more than likely one of these guys is gone in some sort of move. 

 

Still not 100% how good anyone will end up being, of course, but I'm betting Arcia is the odd man out in this mix. That leaves a potentially excellent and versatile OF with a balance of hitting, speed, power and defense as well as LF and RH hitting.

 

Mauer, Sano and Plouffe for 1B/3B/DH, and this whole lineup starts to look tantalizing!

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May have to trade Plouffe open up the DH spot for Arcia/Hunter. I would think you could get a catcher or shortstop for Plouffe. I would not trade Arcia now. All of the players you mentioned could be worth quite a bit more next year. I think Plouffe's value has about peaked and is very good so trade him before he gets expensive.

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Everyone needs to stop saying Kepler lacks power.

 

Joe Mauer SLG, 20-yo at AA: .453

Kennys Vargas SLG, 23-yo at AA:. .472

Miguel Sano SLG, 22-yo at AA: .544

Mike Trout SLG, 19-yo at AA: .544

Adam Walker SLG, 22-yo at AA: .546

Max Kepler SLG, 22-yo at AA: .556

Oswaldo Arcia SLG, 21-yo at AA: .557

 

Sorry to get semantic but "power" does NOT mean Home Runs. It just doesn't. If you want to talk about HR, then talk about HR. But don't call it "power."

 

Or if SLG doesn't do it for you, and you want to be super technical, there is this:

 

Joe Mauer ISO, 20-yo at AA: .112

Kennys Vargas ISO, 23-yo at AA: .191

Mike Trout ISO, 19-yo at AA: .218

Max Kepler ISO, 22-yo at AA: .222

Oswaldo Arcia ISO, 21-yo at AA: .229

Miguel Sano ISO, 22-yo at AA: .270

Adam Walker ISO, 22-yo at AA: .291

 

Still really good

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As for what we should do, we should keep Buxton, Hicks, Rosario, and Kepler as our four outfielders. We should trade Arcia UNLESS Terry Ryan is ok with trading Plouffe, in which case Arcia could be move to DH and Sano to 3B. I'm not expecting that to happen, however. Arcia should not be allowed anywhere near an outfield.

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