Adam Walker: Looking for Comps
Entry posted by jorgenswest ·
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You have to be excited about Adam Brett Walker's performance in AA. He leads all AA players with an ISO of .312. This isn't new. He had the second best ISO in the Florida State League last year at .190. Where is all of the top prospect love?
It is hard to get past his strike out rates. Not only does he lead all AA players in ISO but he also leads in strike out rate at 35.5%. Some look at the strike out rate and dismiss Walker as a prospect. Certainly major league pitchers would take better advantage of his poor strike zone judgment. I wondered in there were any other AA players among the league leaders in both strike out rate and ISO that became solid major league players.
Below is a list of players who were among the top of their league in both AA categories since 2006.
Brandon Wood
Kody Kirkland
Chip Cannon
Wilkin Ramirez
Greg Halman
Brandon Waring
Carlos Peguero
Joe Benson
Kyle Russell
Derek Norris
Tommy Mendonca
Brahiam Maldonado
Matt Fields
Domingo Santana
Michael Taylor
Stephen Montoya
Some multiple appearances on the list. I think Brandon Waring made it 4 times.
Brandon Wood stuck out to me. He was a very highly ranked prospect. He had strike out rates of 28.5% in AA and 24.6%, 23.2% and 18.7% in AAA as he bounced back and forth between the majors and AAA. His walk rates in the minors were around 10%. Even though he was able to improve his strike out rate over time, it didn't traslate well in the majors for him and slugging percentages of 550-600 in the minors was 289 in 751 major league plate appearances.
Carlos Peguero is still hanging on. Unlike Wood, his strikeout rate never improved below 30% as he moved up the ladder. He has 319 major league plate appearances with a strike out rate of 39.5%. Slugging in the minors of 463, 558, 562, 563 translates to 384 overall in the majors.
Derek Norris is on the list. He was a major league all star last year. In AA, he had a strike out rate of 27.7% and an ISO of 237. You might dismiss this as a good comp since both the K rate and ISO are 20-25% below Walker's level. They are full season stats though and Walker will likely drop a little in both. There is also the context of the park and league. Norris is a valuable major league player. He followed his AA season with a AAA strike out rate of 16.7%. I am not sure what caused the change but he did move to the A's organization from the Nationals and perhaps the A's saw something in his swing that they fixed.
That list isn't too encouraging. There is a flaw in my selection. Players with Walker's power don't always stay in AA a full season and therefore do not qualify on the leaderboards. Maybe I missed better players.
I looked at it in reverse. I took the current top 10 batters according to strike out rate and looked at their performance in AA. I am hoping that they had similar high strike out rates in AA. Below is a list of the 10 and their strikeout rates this year and in AA.
Player MLB%/AA%
Souza (36.6% / 23.5%)
Carter (35.9% / 20.1%)
Davis (34.5% / 21.8%)
Stanton (32.7% / 26.2%)
Soler (32.2% / 19% )
Pederson (30.1% / 22.0%)
Bryant (29.8% / 25.9%)
Martinez (28.6% / 16.8%)
LaRoche (27.6% / 20.1%)
Springer (27.4% / 30.1%)
George Springer is my hero. The other 9 strike out at a greater rate in the majors than they did in AA. I guess that shouldn't be surprising. Half of the players had better than a 50% increase in strike out rate.
How about George? Like Derek Norris, he went to AAA and reduced his strike out rate In 266 plate appearance it was 24.6%. His overall rate in the major leagues is 30.8% and with that rate he has been a productive player with an OPS 792.
What about Walker? Will he be a lifetime minor leaguer like Brandon Waring? Will he bounce back and forth like Brandon Wood? Can he stick like George Springer?
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