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May Trevor Be The Bigger Prize?


Ted Schwerzler

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It was the offseason before the 2013 Major League Baseball season was ready to kick off. The Twins were coming off of yet another 90 loss season, and this team appeared to be going nowhere fast. With poor pitching across the board, a reinvention of the organization was in need. That's when the roster shuffle came.

First, Denard Span was sent to the Washington Nationals for a top pitching prospect. Not a month later, Ben Revere was dealt to the Philadelphia Phillies for two pitchers in return. It was Nationals prospect, Alex Meyer, that was regarded as the top of the rotation arm that the Twins so desperately needed. The Phillies sent Vance Worley, a regressed rookie of the year candidate, and pitching prospect Trevor May to the Twins. With plenty of promise tied up in each arm, the Twins were willing to let the chips fall where they may.

 

Fast forward to today, and the narrative has all but played out. Vance Worley played just one season for the Twins (pitching to a 7.21 ERA across 48.2 innings pitched in 10 games) before being sent to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Alex Meyer overpowered minor league opponents for two years despite struggling with an increasing walk issue. However, a disastrous start to 2015 pushed him to the bullpen in hopes to reclaim his past form. Then, there’s Trevor May.

In his first season on the farm with the Twins, May posted a 4.51 ERA in 27 starts at Double-A New Britain. While his 9.4 K/9 numbers were great, his 4.0 BB/9 ratio had the makings of similar scares Meyer brought with him. In 2014 at Rochester, May looked even better posting a 2.85 ERA across 18 starts with a 8.6 K/9, but the walk issue (3.6 BB/9) still remained.

 

May had shown the Twins enough, and to be frank the big league club didn’t have many quality options, to earn a cup of coffee in September 2014. His first 10 big league games saw him post a 7.88 ERA, and that 4.3 BB/9 reared its head at the major league level. As the calendar turned to 2015 however, May appeared to leave those issues behind.

In spring training, it was Trevor May that was in the thick of a heated battle for the 5th and final rotation spot. Despite eventually losing out to the likes of Tommy Milone, May impressed far more often than not down in Florida. With the roster shuffling that would quickly take place, May found himself back on the big league roster in short order.

 

Early results this season were mixed for May. An ugly first start was followed by his first win in which he ceded just one run to what was expected to be a solid Indians team. Despite a short start and a clunker in Cleveland mixed in, May seemed to make progress each outing. The walk numbers were down significantly, and he was throwing better than his defense was willing to help him look.

It was his 10th start however, and first of his career in Boston, that seemed to be the culmination of all the hard work put in. With Minnesota needing a win to avoid a three game losing streak, May put the team on his back. A seven inning, two-hit shutout, was capped off by striking out nine Red Sox batters, and not walking a single one. It seemed, all in the course of one night, Trevor May had arrived.

 

As it stands currently, May’s 4.45 ERA is nothing to brag about, but his 2.80 FIP (fielding independent pitching) suggests he’s been so much better. The biggest change for the Twins rookie however, is that he has all but abandoned his affinity to give up free bases. Striking out batters at a 7.9 K/9 clip (and leading the Twins with 50 K), May has walked just nine all season (a 1.4 BB/9 ratio). In reinventing himself, May has taken himself out of the discussion as the Twins 5th starter, and pushed himself to be regarded as one of the best on the bump.

There’s little argument to be made that Alex Meyer has not turned out to be what the Twins had hoped at this point. He’s a 25 year old former top prospect that has now been pushed to the bullpen. The days of him being a top of the rotation guy may be over. As unfortunate as that may be, it is in Trevor that the Twins can find promise. Despite not being brought in with the hype of Meyer, May was a 4th round pick on his own, and has begun to come into his own.

It isn’t all there yet for Trevor May, but there’s little doubt that he’s on the right path towards becoming a very solid pitcher. Although it may not have been the expected scenario, May is becoming the prized pitcher they believed they were getting the summer they traded their centerfielders away. It’s just the beginning, but it sure looks like a ride you won’t want to miss.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

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Just realized Trevor May's FIP according to Baseball Reference is 2.80. Wow. Yes please. Although xFIP is 3.54 according to Fangraphs. Not as amazing, but still decent.

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There's no doubt the goal is to push Meyer back to the rotation. The hope is that pitching out of the pen helps to get him right. At this point however, the Twins are getting the production from the guy they did not expect it from.

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Not all pitchers walk onto a major league mound and are great from the start. It is the problem you have with prospects in general, they might need a bit of seasoning, they may have a sophomore slump, they need to go back-and-forth a bit. At some point you know what you have. Did we see Gibson being Gibson last year. No. He may be the next Carlos Silva, but right now, he is wonderful. Hughes will come back to earth. May is learning the difference between minor league hotdog and major league hamburger. 

 

It is first and foremost having the tools. The it is using the tools in the right way (which is harder on the major league level with the talent you face and video). And, overall, you have to keep your head straight.

 

We see guys work their butts off everyday to stay in the majors. We see folks like Delmon Young, who has all the talent in the world and can play major league ball with his eyes closed...and sadly, he does. You have 4-skill prospects that just can't make the jump (Joe Benson, Adam Johnson, J.D. The Real Deal" Durbin). Guys you hear are dynamite and never hear from them ever (Matt Moses). 

 

Some may settle into that 3rd-4th starter role, that setup man, that all-around utility guy. But the skills you need to be on a major league team mean you are heads-and-shoulders above most everyone else at the AAA level, and just think how much better those guys are than your average collegiate player, or high schooler.

 

Right now the Twins are doing it as a team. No one is running away with any of the statistical categories in batting or pitching, the fielding is average, overall there is nothing really special about the team except that they play the game and stay in the game and there is a unity that you get (call it the Hunter Power) when you watch them not only play ball The Twins Way but still have fun coming to the ballpark.

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