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The Twins Depth Is Turning Into A Tightrope


Ted Schwerzler

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Nearing the end of May, over a quarter of the 2015 Major League Baseball season is in the books. As it stands, the Minnesota Twins are in sole possession of second place in the American League Central Division, and they have one of the best records in the American League. With the Twins continuing to trend in an upwards direction, managing their depth and walking the tightrope through some difficult decisions will shape their summer.

At the major league level right now, the Twins have players such as Chris Herrmann, Tim Stauffer, and Eduardo Nunez contributing to games. The former two have been nothing short of disaster, while the latter has provided some surprising value in short bursts. Looking at the group however, none of those names represent irreplaceable players. With an organization chocked full of young talent, roster shuffling over the next few weeks will become an interesting point of observation.

 

Considering the depth throughout the Twins organization, it may be the lowest rungs that begin to dictate what happens at the top. However, the Twins closest pool of talent generally comes from Triple-A Rochester. Tommy Milone has pitched four games at Triple-A yielding just one run over 31.2 innings and has struck out batters at an 11.7 K/9 clip while walking just 0.6 batters per nine innings. Kennys Vargas was sent down just over a week ago, and is batting over .400 with three home runs. Josmil Pinto has looked like an upgrade as the second catcher for a while, even despite his recent cold stretch at the plate. What's even more impressive, those three players only represent a small sample size.

Rochester could be pushing arms such as A.J. Achter, Lester Oliveros, and Alex Meyer (who recently threw his first inning of relief) all to the big leagues as well. With Stauffer offering little to the Twins, and Brian Duensing struggling often as well, Minnesota could chose to upgrade from within. Although Rochester may be the immediate talent pool for the big leagues, it's in Double-A Chattanooga, High-A Fort Myers, and Low-A Cedar Rapids that the Twins tightrope gets more interesting.

 

The Lookouts no doubt have one of the best teams in all of minor league baseball. There's little reason to believe we don't see Miguel Sano and/or Byron Buxton in Minnesota before August. On top of those two however, Max Kepler (.345/.385/.555 2 HR 15 RBI) and Jorge Polanco (.311/.348/.431 4 HR 20 RBI) could likely both use a new challenge in short order as well. On the mound, Chattanooga will be ushering Jose Berrios (2.89 ERA 63 K) and Zack Jones (1.72 ERA 22 K) out in short order. D.J. Baxendale has put together a great start, and the Twins could still decide to move both Jake Redd and Nick Burdi on the fast track.

Fort Myers may not have the hitters that the higher levels of the organization tout, but pitchers like Chih-Wei Hu (1.03 ERA 36 K), Aaron Slegers (2.59 ERA 31 K), Brett Lee (2.14 ERA 19 K), Kohl Stewart (2.60 ERA 18 K), and J.T. Chargois (2.40 ERA 19 K) could all be looking at the next level at some point. Cedar Rapids is watching Trey Vavra (.342/.399/.529 6 HR 27 RBI) destroy baseballs, while Stephen Gonsalves (1.50 ERA 54 K), Felix Jorge (2.13 ERA 39 K), and Cameron Booser (0.84 34 K) all confuse opposing hitters. With plenty of candidates in the mix now, the Twins have decisions to make.

 

The 40 man roster no doubt has some fat that could be trimmed off of it. Even with adding players however, there's still only 25 roster spots at each level. With plenty of deserving candidates looking for promotions, the Twins will need to get creative. Terry Ryan recently noted that guys like Hu and Gonsalves may stick at their current levels longer than anticipated, and part of the reasoning has to be the log jams ahead of them.

With the big league club set to play 12 games in June (4 series) against teams with sub-.500 records, it's conceivable the high level of winning could continue. If that happens, the Twins will have to navigate their current tightrope with precision. The question will become, what assets do you deal, for whom, and when? Minnesota could be in a position to package a couple of minor league prospects to land a single player that could vault them into the postseason.

Heading into the season, it was not 2015 that was slated to mark the turnaround for Minnesota. There's no doubt this team was capable of turning heads, and a sneaky playoff run could have been argued, but being a major player at the trade deadline didn't seem reasonable. Minnesota won't mortgage the future that they have built, but there's no doubt that the opportunity to turn depth into an immediate asset could present itself. How Terry Ryan navigates it could be the defining moment in how the Twins finish 2015.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

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It is scary to think what a September 1 call up might look like for this club.   Think about having Buxton, Sano, Vargas, Polanco, etc.  available off the bench or in the line-up.  

 

The depth in the relief corp could lead to some amazing matchups in key situations.

 

The possibilities are very exciting - but I doubt we seen many of these guys before then.   

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It's probably not all September tied though. Buxton is not on the 40 man, and the Twins won't waste a roster spot for a cup of coffee. If Buxton/Berrios is up, it will be in August or not at all. Vargas should be back soon, and Santana could be replaced by Polanco if he continues to struggle.

 

There are quite a few intriguing options though, and it only adds to the competitive baseball that is currently taking place.

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     That is an impressive list. I am torn I want the winning to continue. However, in terms of having a better team down the road and allowing players to develop, I think the twins should be sellers come  time for the trade deadline. It scares me to think that I may be suggesting that the twins trade away the pieces that have giving the twins success this season, but I do.
 

   I want the twins to trade Nolasco and Pelfrey. Let Milone come up and pitch, and bite the bullet on who the 5th man in the rotation would be for the rest of the season. (next year it'll be Santana, but he's unavailable come playoffs, so I am ignoring him this season as an option).

 

   I want the Twins to trade Arcia  and Vargas. Plouffe, Sano and Mauer can cover DH 1st and 3rd. The outfield is easily covered with Hicks, Buxton and Rosario--completely ignoring Hunter as an option. Adam Brett Walker, and Max Kepler need to get moved up among others.

  Trade as much of the bullpen as you can, that isn't named Perkins, Fien, or Boyer. Not because the others are necessarily horrible, but because there is a log jam. 

   The Twins will be a very good team in a year or two, and I want to still have a strong farm system when that happens. Trade the mid tier guys that are performing a little better than they ought to be, stock up for the future and let the  guys come up that are really going to be the team to watch from 2017-2025.

   

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What do you make of Walker and Sano battling for AA home run and RBI lead. Walker currently leads all of AA in both categories and Sano is starting to make his move. Both are showing better plate discipline according to their manager. Do these accomplishments serve well for either of their 2015 aspirations? AAA or September Call Ups.

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Walker maybe has the biggest power numbers of anyone in the system. He doesn't necessarily have the upside of a top tier prospect though and think he goes to AAA at some point.

 

Sano could skip AAA and being on the 40 man, could be a September call up very easily if he's not here before.

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There are a lot of opinions and good ideas on here, and very proactive ones. And while Polanco is a possibility for Santana, I am not sure what else will happen. Where is there any history of TR making aggressive wholesale changes in a roster, especially a winning one. If they keep winning you might see a tweaking of the bullpen, and Sanatana will replace a SP. Pinto? They sent him down to get back in shape, on track, he hit the crap out of the ball, and they left him there. As for Hunter, if he stays half decent, he will be back next year. It's the Twins way! Stauffer? Sucked in Rocherster, and gets brought right back. Two days later Rob Anthony said that Arcia would have to earn his way back. No more injured players getting in a couple games, then back. For the Twins, seniority and contracts rule, and always have.

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