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Joe Mauer Is Reinventing Meaningful Statistics


Ted Schwerzler

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In the dead of the Pittsburgh night, late in the game (the top of the 13th inning to be exact), Joe Mauer did something that he has abandoned since August 17, 2014. With Antonio Bastardo on the mound, Mauer deposited a pitch over the right-centerfield wall at PNC Bank stadium. The Twins went on to win the game by a tally of 4-3. The home run was the shot that lifted Minnesota over the Pirates, but for Joe, it really doesn't matter.

The home run off of Bastardo ended a 286 at bat drought for Mauer. While a first basemen, power has generally not been his game (just 37 HR since 2010), but taking a deeper look at the 2015 version, that's something you should be ok with. Statistically speaking, the corner infield spots are held down by hulking home run hitters that drive the ball to all fields. Contrary to what may be popular belief, Mauer has reinvented himself in bringing value to the role.

 

Often regarded as an opposite field hitter (outside of the relative reliability to pull ground balls) Mauer has used all fields incredibly well in 2015. He is currently pulling 31.5% of his batted balls, while going up the middle with 35.4%, and hitting to the opposite field 33.1% of the time. A career 28.8% pull hitter, he has more evenly used all fields in 2015.

Although Mauer is more evenly distributing his hits, they are falling in equaling less total bases. Though this isn't ideal, it can likely be explained by his hard hit percentage. Owner of a career 33.6% hard hit percentage, Mauer is hitting just 23.6% of his batted balls hard this year. While his medium hits are at 59.1% (as opposed to a career 56.7%), his soft hits are also significantly up at 17.3% (career 9.7%).

The most visible place these numbers have shown up is in regards to Mauer's doubles this season. With eight total through the first quarter of the season, reaching 30+ will require a few more balls driven to the gaps. However, Mauer does have two triples already this season, matching his 2014 total.

 

Looking at the numbers as a whole, we can start to see where Joe Mauer has deficiencies, and where he should be expected to contribute. That being said, a glance at a few different key areas quickly points out that Mauer may in fact be on pace for one of his best offensive seasons in recent memory. Home runs aside, he is driving the Twins offense right now, quite literally.

Leading the club in runs batted in with 24, Mauer is blistering past his 2014 pace (which ended with 55 RBI). Mauer's previous career high in runs batted in came during the 2009 season, in which he drove in 96 runs for the Twins. As it stands now, he's on pace to even that mark. Mauer driving in runs is a by-product of his success in high leverage situations this season, and his success is astounding.

 

A large portion of being a talented hitter is situational hitting. While Mauer's .284/.341/.381 slash line may leave some room for improvement, it's tough to argue what he's done in high leverage situations. In 2015 with runners on base, Mauer is hitting .382/.463/.485 and with runners in scoring position he's even better, .419/.500/.512. Taking it one step further, Mauer is 4-5 with a triple and eight RBI with the bases loaded in 2015, equating to a 2.000 OPS. Driving runners around and putting the Twins on the board is no doubt the most important offensive feat, no matter how that is accomplished.

Now that we've established why Mauer's lack of home runs doesn't really matter, it's probably a good time to suggest things could continue to get even better. Hoping that Mauer's overall slash line returns back towards his career numbers still seems to be in the cards. Last season, Mauer didn't hit .300 in any single month until September. In 2015, Mauer's April line checked in at .318/.392/.412. He's struggled at the plate in May (outside of those high leverage situations), but it's pretty apparent that a healthy Mauer can still hit. As the summer wears on, it should be expected that Mauer hits at a better than average clip.

This Twins team is in a good place right now, and with key additions coming as the season goes on, they are in position to keep getting better. The 6th best offense in baseball is continuing to push runs across at a strong clip, and Joe Mauer is a big reason for it, even despite the home runs.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

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I agree that if someone is on a pace to drive in 100 runs, it's hard to call it a bad year.  But based on what you wrote, do you this 2013 was a bad year for Mauer when he drove in only 47 runs and had a .239/.389/.273 line with RISP?

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I think the narrative I was trying to convey a little bit more is that it's easy to associate a certain weight to a certain statistical category. Instead, evaluating things on a more situational basis, production can be relevant to success.

 

Mauer is often criticized for being something that he's not (and probably something the Metrodome is at fault for allowing him to appear to be), while often failing to be noted for what he is.

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Isn't the narrative that Mauer is having an ordinary season thus far given his OPS of .722 and 0.2 WAR, but that a .500 BABIP with runners in scoring position has generated a few more RBI than might otherwise be expected?  Or are you contending that Mauer has some control over the outcomes in those high leverage situations (in which case it would be helpful if he exerted it all the time).

I'd expect his overall line to improve and his line with RISP to normalize over time but I'm struggling to see the "reinventing" here unless I'm missing something - (which is quite possible by the way :) )

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I guess I'm suggesting so many numbers, the narrative of the core probably got lost along the way. Yes Mauer's BABIP numbers are no doubt going to regress towards the mean, and I too believe that his average will even out.

 

At its core, the "reinventing" is in relation to a thought process. Far too often HRs are pointed at as a deterrent to Joe's succes. Based upon relative numbers and production elsewhere, the suggestion is that statistical analysis has to be viewed as a whole rather than in terms of weighted importance.

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I wondered as Dozier was scoring all those runs last year how many times Mauer had moved him along, if not driving him in. Are there advanced metrics for productive outs?

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While Dozier did bat ahead of Mauer most of the year, Mauer's 57 RBI in 2014 wasn't a real significant number. However, considering Dozier's OBP...a healthy amount of those RBI were likely Brian

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While it is great he is being extra RISPy this year and true that he doesn't HAVE to hit HR to be productive....

 

it's still very much true that his production is not what we need from him.

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While it is great he is being extra RISPy this year and true that he doesn't HAVE to hit HR to be productive....

 

it's still very much true that his production is not what we need from him.

 

It probably depends on how you define need. A guy batting .284/.341/.381 who's driving in runs, especially in high leverage, is more than an asset to me.

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Total eye test analysis but it seems to me he is really hunting to pull the ball when there is no one on, and shortening up when he has a chance to drive someone in. 

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Total eye test analysis but it seems to me he is really hunting to pull the ball when there is no one on, and shortening up when he has a chance to drive someone in. 

 

 

The fact that his spray chart is almost completely balanced to all fields probably mimics that sentiment. He's always pulled grounders and opposed liners to a certain extent.

 

Him swinging earlier in counts I think has dictated ball placement as well. It's easier to hop on a first pitch fastball and yank it rather than to have to wait on a two strike pitch.

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There is very little evidence that I have seen that clutch performance (specifically performance w/RISP) is a skill.  If it was, people would tend to remain clutch performers over a period of time, that their stats with RISP would be consistently higher than their overall stats year after year.

 

Instead, we find the opposite.  If you take the top 10% and bottom 10% clutch performers from one year and graph their clutch performance the following year, the two graphs would probably be similar.  The majority in each group would have RISP performance about equal to their overall performance, some would be above, and some would be below.

 

 

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There is very little evidence that I have seen that clutch performance (specifically performance w/RISP) is a skill.  If it was, people would tend to remain clutch performers over a period of time, that their stats with RISP would be consistently higher than their overall stats year after year.

 

Instead, we find the opposite.  If you take the top 10% and bottom 10% clutch performers from one year and graph their clutch performance the following year, the two graphs would probably be similar.  The majority in each group would have RISP performance about equal to their overall performance, some would be above, and some would be below.

 

 

Again, while understood, this is hanging up too much on a singular situation. The point isn't RISP but rather statistical betterment as a whole. Without hitting HR's, Maur is providing value in other areas.

 

I don't believe that a hitter has a "clutch" ability or that it's a measurable total. As long as he's driving in runners though, the HR can continue to remain null. When that changes, he will need to further pick up other areas to provide value. No one category determines success or failure.

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It probably depends on how you define need. A guy batting .284/.341/.381 who's driving in runs, especially in high leverage, is more than an asset to me.

 

The high leverage component and the men on base component of that are completely independent of him.  We need Mauer himself being more productive.

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