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The Return of Mike Pelfrey's Arm


PogueBear

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Mike Pelfrey's arm is feeling better. Last night he pitched 7 shutout innings against the Royals as he struck out four, walked two, and gave up five hits as the Twins cruised to a 3-0 victory.

 

That's a good result, but it doesn't necessarily indicate Pelfrey's arm is feeling better. Well, how about this factoid? Pelfrey's sinker's average velocity of 93.5 mph in 2015 is the highest it's ever been, according to fangraphs PITCHf/x velocity data. His fastball's 93.1 mph average is also the highest it's been since Pelfrey's rookie season in 2007 when it sat at 94.3 mph. I know it's a small sample size, but it's also APRIL, when temperatures are down and pitcher's arms are supposedly stiffer and less lively.

 

So Pelfrey's velocity is up. Have his pitches been effective? So far, yes. An effective sinker induces groundballs and Pelfrey's sinker, which is Pelfrey's secondary offering (he has thrown it 20.2% of the time in 2015 compared to the fastball 64.3%) has helped to raise his groundball percentage to 61.1%, thus far. Pitches can't leave the ballpark if they're on the ground.

 

Now before Terry Ryan goes popping champagne and breaks out another Pelfrey extension, he should remember one and a half decent starts does not make an ace. However, given Pelfrey's increased velocity and improved results, he has at least earned an extended look in the rotation. Perhaps Nolasco could suffer another timely "injury?"

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I see a sinker [splitter, according to Pelfry] at a speed over 91 as a future elbow injury.  It's early, he's getting a 2nd chance on a 2nd start, so he's probably a little excited.  I just hope Coach Allen convinces him to through the changeup more and reduce arm stress.

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If Pelfry is really back to his old self then we should expect a guy that hovers around 4.5 - 5 era and pitches about 6 innings a start.  May certainly shouldn't be sent down in favor of him and Meyer should be handed his spot as soon as he claims it. 

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May should absolutely not be sent down.  Prospects and youth should always trump "experience" during a rebuild.   As to your comments about Meyer, here are his AAA numbers thus far:

 

IP: 14.2  ER: 8  BB: 14  K: 20

 

ERA: 4.91

 

If Meyer didn't have "uber prospect" associated with his name, a rationale person might say that's a pitcher with serious control problems.  A walk per inning is not acceptable for a starting pitcher.  You end up laboring every outing and typically get pulled by the fifth inning, if not earlier. 

 

Yes, he is still amassing strikeouts and for that reason he remains a "prospect," but he is having difficulties I would rather he work out under a "softer" spotlight. 

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