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What a Terrific Start!


Steven Buhr

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It’s pretty hard to imagine this baseball season getting off to a better start, isn’t it? I mean, even the most optimistic of us probably wouldn’t have predicted a .789 winning percentage through the first week of games! This looks like it could be a fun summer of baseball!

 

What’s that? You say the Twins are languishing with a 1-6 record? Who cares? I’m talking about their full-season minor league affiliates! That’s where the action (and literally ALL of the fun) is!

 

The AAA Rochester Red Wings are 3-1.

 

The newest Twins affiliate, the AA-level Chattanooga Lookouts (with arguably one of the most loaded rosters in all of minor league baseball) are sitting at 4-1.

 

The Class A Advanced Fort Myers Miracle are 3-2 (pending the outcome of their Tuesday game – what’s up with these morning start times, anyway?).

 

And last, but certainly not least, the Class A Cedar Rapids Kernels are still on pace to be a perfect 140-0 at the end of the year after winning their first five games of the season.

 

That means that the four minor league affiliates, combined, are 15-4 through Monday night and have lost two fewer games than the Twins have managed to drop all by themselves.

Of course, it’s early. You don’t want to read too much in to the small sample size of a week’s worth of games. After all, will even the Twins continue losing at their current pace to finish the year with a 27-135 record? Of course they won’t. Well – probably not, anyway.

 

(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com.)

 

But while those of you who insist on following only the big leaguers continue to wonder why you’re paying big league prices to watch what even Torii Hunter has admitted to essentially being “Bad News Bears” baseball, here’s a small sample of what you’ve been missing on the farm:

  • The Red Wings have three guys, all deemed by Twins management to be unworthy of a spot with the Twins, with an OPS over 1.000. Two of them, Danny Ortiz and Aaron Hicks, would likely improve the Twins’ outfield defense if they weren’t wearing Rochester uniforms. The third, Josmil Pinto, probably deserves an entire post dedicated to discussing why he should or shouldn’t be in Minnesota.
  • The consensus top two Twins prospects, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, both are in the Lookouts’ everyday lineup, so it’s not surprising that Chattanooga also has three guys with above-1.000 OPS numbers. Then again, none of those three guys are named Buxton or Sano. Stephen Wickens, DJ Hicks and Travis Harrison are bringing the lumber, so far, for the Lookouts. They aren’t the only productive hitters, however. That lineup is stacked, as expected. Their TEAM OPS is .829. Oh, and their pitchers are striking out almost 1.3 batters per inning, too.
  • Niko Goodrum is a .400 hitter, going in to Tuesday’s game, for the Miracle, who also had two starting pitchers, Aaron Slegers and Ryan Eades, who each tossed six shutout innings in their initial starts of the season.
  • No less than five Kernels hitters have put up 1.000+ OPS numbers through the first five games. As a TEAM, the Kernels have put up a .316/.380/.471 (.851 OPS) slash line. That Midwest League-leading team batting average is a full 47 points over the next highest team in the league. Not to be outdone, the pitching staff has put up a 1.80 ERA, so far, and have struck out 57 batters in a combined 45 innings of work.

Conversely, the Twins have put up a team OPS of .530 on the season, which is the worst in Major League Baseball. Their team ERA is 6.52, which is also dead last among the 30 big league teams. Not coincidentally, their 35 staff strikeouts is also good for dead last.

 

All of this might be more understandable if the Twins had made clear that, for the good of the franchise, they were going to punt on 2015 - that the plan would be to plug journeymen “replacement level” players in to fill every perceived gap in their big league roster, in order to give their much-heralded minor league prospects more time to become adequately seasoned on the farm.

 

But that’s not what they did. Every public comment from everyone in the organization from the end of 2014’s fourth consecutive 90+ loss season through the final days of spring training expressed the company line that they were expecting significant improvement this season.

 

That's not really surprising. Twins fans generally hear that refrain every offseason.

 

The truth is that the Twins have been hoping that fans would be patient, because there really is a ton of young talent approaching the Major League team's doorstep. From the sounds coming from Target Field on Monday, it seems that 'patient' is not exactly what much of the fan base is feeling.

 

I don't think it had to be this way.

 

Back in early October, I wrote that I thought it was time for the Twins to adjust their model, when it comes to promoting their prospects. I suggested that, despite both guys losing virtually their entire seasons a year ago to injury, the Twins should consider simply promoting Buxton and Sano and letting them learn their craft on the big stage.

 

I argued that, yes they would struggle, but they’re likely to struggle a while whenever they are finally promoted and both young men have demonstrated that they learn, adapt and, ultimately, dominate, very quickly as each new challenge is presented.

 

I also argued for either signing one of the top free agent starting pitchers or simply getting Alex Meyer and Trevor May in to the rotation from the start and setting up Jose Berrios for a debut not too deep in to the season.

 

I didn’t discuss the bullpen, at the time, but if I’d known what the Opening Day bullpen was going to look like, I’d have argued pretty forcefully for an immediate youth movement there, too.

 

Instead, the Twins have assembled a cast at the big league level that deflated and discouraged its fan base (warm welcome-home ovation for Torii Hunter, notwithstanding) virtually before the Home Opener was finished.

 

The future does look bright. There is an embarrassment of riches in terms of baseball talent in the Twins organization.

 

Unfortunately, the Twins have decided that you won’t see a lot of it at Target Field for a while.

 

That’s bad news for fans in Minnesota, but Twins fans in New York, Florida, Tennessee and Iowa look to be in for a lot of fun this summer.

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Great article - great hook. Optimism is needed anywhere we can find it.

 

Immediate promotion for several guys to the majors seems like a good idea at this point. I don't know. If they struggle it seems like you just send them back to AAA for a stint. I've never bought into the idea that an early call up can cause permanent psychological damage to someone who would have been a great player otherwise. And forget the idea of 8-dimensional service time chess game. Never bought that one either, though reasonable people may differ.

 

Promoting guys is a bit of an art form, I bet, which I have no experience with and can only comment on from the cheap seats.

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Just curious and haven't found on any other thread...where has Max Kepler been? Is he injured?

Nevermind...found answer to my own question when I looked up his Bio from adopt-a-propsect. Should be in the Miracle lineup shortly...surprised he's not with the Lookouts...

 

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Good advice!  I got tired of waiting for prospects and decided to start watching them awhile ago when I subscribed to MiLB.tv.  You can't see every game, and it's more Rochester than Chattanooga or Cedar Rapids, but it's a nice enough variety (no Fort Myers as far as I can tell).

 

The picture quality and audio usually leaves a lot to be desired.  Then again, I don't have to hear Bert drone on about pitchers "hitting their spots" or batters "taking it the other way".

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Not sure that I am with you on Buxton and Sano as I am a service clock watcher.  I think the longer they hold them back the closer everything comes together between potential young ace type Pitching, and young solid hitters all coming up together.  That should maximize the time they all get to play together. Then after five years you keep a few stars, trade a few players and hope your pipeline can replace the players you no longer can afford to pay.  Given the circumatances though it might be hard to wait.

 

Love what the Kernals are doing.  I thought they would be good but didn't see dominant coming.  Should be a fun bunch to watch again this year.  Wonder if they will have a team similar to when Buxten was there minus the home run hitters.  The guys on that team really seem to gell.

 

Obviously was excited about chattanooga before the season even began and they look realy good.  Just need the bullpen to come around and it seems hard to believe they could lose.

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Thanks, all, for taking the time to read and for the comments.

 

HBD - I agree. I do understand the "don't overwhelm them" approach, but Sano and Buxton are two guys that I simply do not feel would be affected much if they were pushed and, as a result, struggled a bit. They have both, at times, been temporarily stifled by pitchers at the next level. It hasn't made them crawl in to the fetal position, it makes them work harder.

 

Dman - I understand the instinct to watch the service time, but for Sano and Buxton, I just don't see it as an issue. One of two things will happen, I believe: Either they meet our lofty expectations and the Twins work out extensions long before service time becomes an issue, or they fail to live up to those expectations and, as a result, we're not all that concerned with retaining their services long term.

 

If either guy had an agent, such as Boras, who historically has a reputation for encouraging his clients to test the free agent market, rather than sign extensions, I might feel differently. (Which is why I have very little problem with what the Cubs are doing with Bryant.)

 

Thanks, again, for taking the time to read my stuff, all.

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Love your enthusiasm SD, and love the article as a whole. 

 

I don't agree on pushing Sano and Buxton so agressively, I just can't. It's just too much too soon after all that happened last season.

 

Pretty much agree with everything else you've stated here.

 

How great is it that we are soooo spoiled on the milb and prospect level that we hardly even know the kids at low A CR despite their talent and their great start?

 

One of these days, all these kids from Rochester on down will finally get their shot, and the Twins will be back on top, with more on the way. We'll win out 3rd WS plus, and win consistently, and forget the past 4-5 years. The winning could begin as early as 2016.

 

Unfortunately, it doesn't seem that it will begin in 2015.Even if we break the season in to halves.

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