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Twins' Roster is Set (but don't call it "final")


Steven Buhr

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With Thursday night's announcement that Chris Herrmann would be heading north with the Minnesota Twins, their opening day roster appears to be set. The back up catcher spot was the final unresolved question of the spring.

 

A lot is made of the make up of the Twins' roster as they open the 2015 season, but it really is of just mild interest to me, personally.

 

Yes, I like to see a guy like Herrmann rewarded for his hard work and persistence and JR Graham's story as a Rule 5 pick up earning a spot in the bullpen is compelling.

But I'm a lot more curious, already, as to what the Twins roster will look like come mid to late July than I am concerning what it looks like when they travel to Detroit to open the season. And I suspect there will be at least a 33% turnover in the roster by the end of July.

 

(This article was originally posted at Knuckleballsblog.com)

 

That would be eight or nine spots on the 25-man roster that would be held down by someone not making the trip north out of spring training with the Twins - and I think that sounds about right. In fact, I could see the turnover being more than that.

I'm not making that prediction based purely on an expectation that the Twins will be clearly en route to a fifth straight 90+ loss season and find themselves in sell-off mode. In fact, I'm probably more optimistic about the Twins' chances of remaining competitive beyond the All-Star break than I've been in a couple of years.

 

I think that, if they stay healthy, this line up will score plenty of runs and I think a lot of people are underestimating how improved the starting rotation may be with the addition of Ervin Santana and a healthier Ricky Nolasco.

My belief in the likelihood of significant turnover comes not so much from a lack of confidence in the team as initially constituted (though I do worry about that bullpen), but from a sense that there are simply so many talented young players at the higher levels of the organization minor leagues that are almost certain to force their way on to the Twins roster by mid-season.

 

To start with, if Josmil Pinto is healthy and still in the Twins organization, I have little doubt he'll be wearing a Twins uniform by July.

 

Beyond that, does anyone not believe that Alex Meyer, Trevor May, Nick Burdi and Jake Reed will be pitching for the Twins by mid-year if they come out of the gate strong in their respective minor league assignments? Those are four pitchers that you could make an argument for putting on the roster right now. You might even be tempted to put Jose Berrios on that list, though I suspect he may be held down on the farm at least until later in the season.

Even if any/all of those arms fail to impress during the season's first half, that doesn't mean that all of the arms that are making up the Twins' opening day pitching staff are likely to have performed well enough to keep their jobs. This pitching staff (especially among the relief corps), as initially constituted, is simply not strong enough to avoid the need for a significant make-over, whether via promotions or trades (or, perhaps most likely, some combination thereof).

 

And we haven't even mentioned the organization's consensus top pair of prospects, Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton. If they manage to shake off the rust that resulted from lost seasons a summer ago (and which clearly still existed during spring training), I expect they will both be Minnesota Twins by mid season. They could easily be joined by Eddie Rosario and, of course, nobody would be at all surprised to see Aaron Hicks rejoin the big league club.

In addition to the prospects that have become familiar to much of the Twins' fan base, the AA Chattanooga Lookouts' everyday line up is going to be literally full of players that are only a hot start and the ability to play a defensive position of need away from being called up.

 

What it all means is that the Twins roster in July, August and September should include far more players that are likely to be part of the next generation of Twins capable of contending for future postseasons than the roster we are discussing in April.

 

It's not easy being patient, but most of these young players will benefit from getting a little more minor league seasoning. The good news is that we are no longer talking about it being several years before we see these promising prospects at Target Field, but, hopefully, merely several weeks.

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Excellent post. One quibble is that it might be Brandon Peterson and not Jake Reed, since I assume they are in AA and A+, respectively. 

 

May, Meyer, Burdi, Peterson, Pinto, Hicks, Rosario, Sano, and Buxton moving up would be huge (all together after AS break or so). Imagine if there are no injuries or trades at that point. Suzuki, Pinto, Mauer, Vargas, Dozier, Santana, Sano, Plouffe, Escobar, Hunter, Buxton, Rosario, Hicks, and Arcia makes 14. If that could somehow work with an 11-man staff and egos that could handle a lineup rotation . . . 

Said staff would be Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Gibson, May, Meyer (inning limit anyway), Duensing, Burdi, Peterson, Fien, and Perkins (something is done with Stauffer).

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Fine article, but I have one "quibble". Considering the last four years, if after the All Star break, the Twins are competitive, I would be surprised if there would be any significant moves. Not that there shouldn't be, but this orginisation will be so desperate for the illusion of success, that I cannot see them tinkering with something that is semi working.

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You are correct, Shane. I'm not sure why I tend to overlook Peterson, because he, as well as Zack Jones (and probably others) certainly deserve mention with Burdi and Reed. I do believe, however, that Read will be at AA well before July and, quite possibly to begin the season.

Platoon, even with a potential, "illusion of success," I think almost any of the players mentioned would be promoted if their play demands it. Even in that scenario, the FO would be looking to improve and I think they would welcome the chance to do so from within, rather than having to give up talent in trades.

I realize it would be un-Twinslike, but the Twins have not had an abundance of riches like this at the high minors level in a very long time.

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SD - I'm also looking forward to the day when the roster you described above becomes a reality. Unfortunately for 2015 it is a pipe dream save significant injuries.  That said, I'd love to see it, but it sounds more realistic to have it occur in 2016 or later.

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The flip side of these additions to the line up is who will be removed to make room. I agree with puckstopper1 in that barring injuries we have a log jam of starting pitching and position players. Only the bullpen looks like it will see significant churn. So will starting pitchers in the minors like May and Meyer and Berrios become relievers for a year or two? It happened with Johan. Of course, most fans were screaming at Gardy/Andy to let him start(remember the good ol days!).

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It's really fun seeing posters who aren't the usual suspects!

 

I dunno Jim. Buxton and Berrios seem to be 2016 or later. Sano probably not until September. May should be taking Santana's spot right now and so far it looks like Pelfrey, so if May and/or Meyer with all of their minor league track records and upside combined can't beat Mike F'ing Pelfrey now? When?

 

Bullpen, yeah if there isn't huge turnover throughout the season, it's because every pitcher at AA and AAA is having Tommy John all at the same time.

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May should be taking Santana's spot right now and so far it looks like Pelfrey, so if May and/or Meyer with all of their minor league track records and upside combined can't beat Mike F'ing Pelfrey now? When?

Well, at least now Pelfrey gets his shot and we can boot him to the curb when he most likely sucks.  If he doesn't, then we have trade bait.

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"and, of course, nobody would be at all surprised to see Aaron Hicks rejoin the big league club."

 

I would be stunned to see Hicks with the Twins this year.  I predict his hitting at AAA this year will match closely with his MLB stats to date and may get cut at the end of the year. 

 

I just don't see the fire in Hicks to succeed.  And I really hope I'm wrong.

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Thanks, everyone, for reading the post and for your comments. I guess the Santana suspension gives me the equivalent of a "free space" on a BINGO card, right? He should be back in the rotation by mid July, so there's one automatic change to the Opening Day roster, right? :)

 

Frankly, if the loss of Santana makes the Twins spiral in to non-contention come sooner, then I think it just makes it more likely that we see a number of the younger guys by mid-season.

 

Of course, I could be wrong. Time will tell.

 

Thanks again for taking the time to offer your comments.

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I agree with you Jim, I think that the Santana suspension provides a ton of intrigue. I still see the Twins winning around 79 games, but think the biggest dip is seen in how high the ceiling is. With more flexibility now, the Twins can make some of these "trades from within" type moves to bolster themselves down the line.

 

Bullpen and pitching wise, we probably see most if not all of the big names this season. I am not sure Berrios will get more than a cup of coffee, but think that the rest will provide some help at some point. I would be surprised not to see Rosario before June, Sano August, and Buxton September. Regardless of competitiveness, it probably hinges a lot on how they start out of the gate on the farm, but I think each is realistic.

 

Great piece!

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It's really fun seeing posters who aren't the usual suspects! I dunno Jim. Buxton and Berrios seem to be 2016 or later. Sano probably not until September. May should be taking Santana's spot right now and so far it looks like Pelfrey, so if May and/or Meyer with all of their minor league track records and upside combined can't beat Mike F'ing Pelfrey now? When? Bullpen, yeah if there isn't huge turnover throughout the season, it's because every pitcher at AA and AAA is having Tommy John all at the same time.

 

I agree with you.  Unless Pelfrey's arm literally falls off i don't see the Twins giving May, Meyer or anyone else at AAA a shot before September.  It ain't happenin.  

 

Of the five starters (not including Pelfrey) all are under contract through 2018 and three are under contract through 2019.  There is clearly a rotation logjam right now and Terry Ryan is in no hurry to clear space.  

 

In fact the FO is SO desperate to win games this year and draw more fans that they are pushing back the timetable for most of their prized prospects with the hope that the mediocre veterans will scrap together a few more wins and avoid another 90+ loss season.  They have exhibited this pattern year after year after year.  It DOESN'T WORK!

 

Honestly, I don't think that Berrios will see the majors until mid 2017 given he's only 21.  May and Meyer might get a September callup but that's only if the Twins are totally out of the running by August and the injury bug has bitten the rotation.

 

As far as the lineup goes Sano might get a fall callup but only if he's tearing the cover off the ball and Plouffe is struggling at 3rd.  In the outfield, if Jordan Schafer and Shane Robinson stay above the Mendoza line i really don't see Ryan calling up Buxton or Rosario this season.

 

Not trying to be negative but we all know how Terry Ryan runs this operation.  It's all about fielding mediocre veterans.

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