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2015 Twins offseason top 40 prospects list: 16-20


Thrylos

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Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch

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Today is the fifth installment in the top 40 Twins' Off-season prospects countdown, getting into the top 20 so the descriptions of the player and their rankings are a bit more detailes. You can find all installments here in reverse chronological order. Previous rankings: 36-40, 31-35 , 26-30 and 21-25. You can find the 2014 off-season summary list here In these listings in parenthesis, I am including their ranking in the last prospect list, which was the 2014 mid-season list, with "--" if not ranked. You can find that list here. This list has 3 prospects that were not featured in my top 40 lists before:

 

 

20. Engelb Vielma SS (21) SHB, DOB: 6/22/1994, 5'11", 155 lbs

 

Vielma was signed by the Twins as a 17 year old International Free Agent from Venezuela. Before last season he played professional baseball for 2 seasons, starting in the DSL at 2012 and moving to the GCL and Elizabethton in 2013. Once he moved to the States, he captured the eye of the scouts with his ability on the field, with some of them proclaiming him a top 10 Twins' prospect. As usually, I do not buy into hype, unless I see someone play or results of play and his combined .234/.318/.253 in the Twins' Rookie League teams in 2013, left me enough lukewarm feeling about him to be included in my top 2014 off-season list. I had the opportunity to have a good look at Vielma last Spring Training and wrote the following :

 

Engelb Vielma. This is the single one most unknown superstar in the making in the Twins' organization. He turned two unassisted double plays (one a line out/throw out the other a step on second throw at first) today and he made them seem so easy. Like it is an everyday kind of thing. Looks like his contact tool is getting better. He has crazy nutty speed and as a cutoff guy, he almost threw a guy out at third on a easy triple. Very strong arm. And he has room to grow. I think that he will move into second in my SS rankings after 6th overall ranked Jorge Polanco.

 

Indeed, he would have been second in my SS rankings in my 2014 mid-season list , had the Twins not drafted a SS on the first round of the 2014 draft. Vielma moved to Cedar Rapids this season and hit .266/.313/.323 in 112 games, while continuing his solid SS play. At first, that slash line seems a bit disappointing; however subtracting a record cold Midwest April when he hit .187/.247/.227, he hit .283/.326/.391 for the season, very respectable for a player who is a year and a half younger than the league. Furthermore, this included his .231/.268/.282 July when he was shaking out a concussion.

 

How good is Vielma with the glove? I will let the numbers speak for themselves and the number I would like to use as a criterion of a good SS is the percentage of Put Outs that were double plays. Omar Visquel, the perennial AL gold glove winner, had a 40% of his Put Outs being double plays, in average of his gold glove years 1994-2001. Last season for Vielma 39.6% of Put Outs were Double Plays. In other words, four out of ten outs were in double plays. I know that defensive metrics like RZR, RangeF, UZR etc are not believable by some people, because it involves a lot of math, but % POs that were double plays, is a very tangible concept. For comparison's purpose, here are these numbers for the 2014 Twins with more than 50 POs: Escobar 49/130, 37.7% and Santana 15/53, 28.3% - (Santana's MiLB career numbers are 209/622, 33.6%). Vielma will likely begin 2015 in Fort Myers as a 22 year old. If he continues to improve with the bat, he will fly through the Twins' system, but do not expect any power numbers, other than doubles and triples from him.

 

 

19. Jorge Fernandez C (--) SHB, DOB: 3/30/1994, 6'3", 188 lbs.

 

Fernandez was drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the 7th round of the 2012 Draft from International Baseball Academy in Puerto Rico. In 2012 and 2013 seasons he played in the GCL, where he put lack luster numbers with the bat (.263/.288/.293 and .236/.276/.398 respectively) as a younger than the league player. In 2014 he moved up to Elizabethton at a league average age and had a breakthrough season hitting .321/.361/.440 to produce the second highest OPS for a Catcher in the Twins' organization (Hint: read on to find out who had the highest). Was that enought to propel him in the top 20 of the Twins' prospect rankings? No. Fernandez is an interesting prospect. He has very good approach and mechanics at the plate and as a switch hitter, he is lethal against RHP (.341/.367/.462 as a LHB vs .222/.333/.333 as a RHB.)

 

The Twins might see him as a 1B/OF because of his tall, slender build, but he has made improvements as a Catcher and I think that he can stick at the position. Biggest problems right now with the glove are a. his ability to block passed balls, but this will come with time, and b. his ability to throw out runners, which I think it is more of a learning than arm strength issue and this is also something that he can develop into. I foresee at least Pinto-like numbers with the bat from the Left side, as he fills in, with a better glove than Pinto, as his catching insticts develop, as long as the Twins allow him to be a Catcher. That's the reason he is in my Twins' top 20 prospects list.

 

18. Chih-Wei Hu RHP (--) RHSP, DOB: 11/4/1993, 6'1", 209 lbs.

 

Chih-Wei Hu was singed from Taiwan by Twins for $220,000 in 2012. Last season he played for the Gulf League Twins, sometimes starting, sometimes relieving, pitching 36.7 innings, striking out 39 and walking 8. (0.982 WHIP, 2.45 ERA, 1.99 FIP.) As a young pitcher in Taiwan he had the opportunity to represent his country in International Tournaments and was more polished that hitters his age who were touching wooden bats for the firs time, so, even though impressive, his 2013 numbers had a huge grain of salt attached them. However his season he started in Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids and both his numbers and stuff improved. He always had 4 pitches: Fastball (low 90s), Curve and 2 changes (one a slow palmball).

 

This season, his fastball improved both in velocity (up to mid 90s) and movement and has been commanding his off-speed stuff better. In 71 IP between Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids, the 20 year old had 64 Ks and 15 BBs, for a 2.15 ERA, 0.873 WHIP and 2.33 FIP. What you don't see in those numbers are a 62:36 (or 1.72) Ground Out to Fly Out ratio, which is a result of his ground ball inducing FB, hammer curve and palmball. One thing to consider is that his BABIP was .243, which was the result of all those ground balls. He was 2 years young for the Midwest League, but his K% was not stellar (22.2%) Add to the considerations the way he is built (think a young Carlos Silva,) and there are some considerations about his future. A Carlos Silva is a good comparable for his potential (mid of rotation starter) and, like Carlos Silva, to reach it, Hu needs to have impeccable control and induce many ground balls. So, even though, a lot of people will see his numbers and rank him even higher, I do have serious concerns.

 

17. Mitch Garver C (17), RHB, DOB: 1/15/1991, 6'1", 220 lbs

 

Mitch was the Twins' 9th round pick in the 2013 draft from the University of New Mexica and was not much on the radar last off-season after a .243/.313/.366 performance in Elizabethton, while 1.5 years older than the league average. Garver really impressed me last Spring Break with his bat, his athleticism and his ability to handle pitchers, thus he was my highest ranked catching prospect in the Twins' organization in my mid-season list (http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/2014/06/preliminary-twins-mid-season-top-40.html) as he is in this list. Puting the highest OPS for a Catcher in the organization .289/.399/.481, does not hurt. He was also 1.5 years too old for the Midwest League, but displayed great selectivity (61:65 BB:K ratio, that translated to an OBP a hair below .400) which is not really related to level of play. He has excellent power (hit 16 HR in 430 AB and .183 IsoP.)

 

Mitch looks like a catcher and has good insticts behind the plate. He did spent time as a DH but the Twins rotate their catchers to DH in the low level leagues. Mitch will start 2015 at Fort Myers and might finish in Chattanooga, depending on performance and health and how his bat responds to higher level of play, potentially reaching the majors for a cup of coffee in 2016 and maybe as the Twins starting catcher in 2017. Further improving his ability to call a game, will be critical for his development. His 17th overall ranking is quite conservative and a reflection of Garver being older for the league. He has four tools (and average speed) so with a good showing in 2015, I expect him to break into the Twins' top ten prospect list.

 

16. Jake Reed RHP (--) RHRP, DOB: 9/29/1992, 6'2", 190 lbs.

 

Jake Reed was drafted by the Twins in the 5th round of the 2014 draft from the University of Oregon and has raised eyebrows from the first to his last pitch in his first season as a pro. He started his career at Elizabethton (0.5 years older than the league) where he pitched 6 innings in 4 games, allowing a single hit, striking out 8 batters (0.00 ERA, 0.167 WHIP.) He moved up to Cedar Rapids, where a year younger than league average, he pitched 25 innings, had 31 Ks and 3 BBs (0.36 ERA and 0.520 WHIP). His pro season was not over, as he represented the Twins in the Arizona Fall League, pitching 12.7 innings, striking out 10 and walking 3 (0.71 ERA, 1.03 WHIP.) Jake started his 2014 season as a junior in Oregon, pitching 31 innings, striking out 34 and walking 15 (1.95 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.) His full 2014 season in all of his 4 stops, he pitched 80.7 innings in 61 games, accumulating 22 saves, striking out 83 and walking 22 (and most of those in College) while pitching at an ERA close to 1.00 and WHIP under 1.00. His 0.452 WHIP and 0.29 ERA with Elizabethton and Cedar Rapids were the lowest for any pitcher in the Twins organization.

 

Reed has two pitches: a plus plus fastball with a lot of movement that sits in the mid 90s and touches 97-98, and an above average slider in the low 80s. The biggest change he made from Oregon to the pros was to change his high effort delivery to a simple delivery. This increased his command and control (15 BB in 31 IP in College vs 7 BBs in 49.7 IP in the Pros.) Also the changes in his mechanics added about 2-3 mph to his FB compared to College. With additional work on the slider and the development of a third pitch (changeup?) Reed will be well on his way to being a late innings reliever for the Twins. Will likely start 2015 in Fort Myers with a promotion to Chattanooga mid season. Both in these rankings and in the organization, there is only one reliever ranked higher than Reed.

 

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I don't like the Chih-Wei Hu = Carlos Silva comparison, because in their strikeout profiles there is no comparison. Even in the low minors Silva never really struck out any more than 6 per 9 innings, and as a Twin his K/9 never even topped 4.0, meanwhile... Hu's K/9 at the same level is around 8.0 and his K% exceeds 20% comfortably. Let's see what Hu does this year, and be prepared to move him up your list if he continues as he has.

 

Again, not knowing anything about him other than what's on the Internets :)

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Lots of the Silva comparison if from watching him pitch in ST.  Even their wind ups are similar and both were pitch to contact guys.  At A ball Hu was at 7.9 K/9, Silva 5.4 (but he pitched 150+ innings, kind of the norm back then.)   Hu might move up, but I do need to see more and some of the others in front of him will also need to move up :)

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Regarding the Silva comparison for Hu, he won't turn 21 until after the season starts and has already shown an uptick in velocity. And you have to just love the ground ball rate and low BABIP numbers. You know him far better than I possibly could with your first hand account, but not only is his velocity seemingly better than Silva, but his body type seems far trimmer. Regardless of similar delivery, I always felt Silva had a hard time maintaining his early success because it just looked like he got awkward and pretty much ate himself out of baseball.

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I don't know if simply an optimistic home or what, but I look at prospect lists like this, or the the ones Cody has done, and I just get giddy from the talent, the potential, and the depth of such.

 

How can you not get excited from all the things you hear and read concerning Vielma as an exciting SS prospect? Or Garver as a catcher?

 

Personally, I've never been big on the ages of catchers and top relief pitchers, especially closers. Yeah, it's great if you can find a young one who is ready. But it seems that both are positions usualy filled by guys who need to be seasoned for a while. Catchers need to learn all the defensive nuances, and how to control a staff, plus learn to hit at least a little bit. And so many quality RP and closers find their success only after faltering as a SP.

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I definitely second what you say about Engelb Vielma. I saw him for four games in Cedar Rapids last season, and he was by far my favorite to watch. His arm is amazing. He was playing long toss with Ryan Walker during warm-ups and Walker was one and two hopping it, but Vielma was putting bullets in his chest like he was 90 feet away. He also smoked a triple into the RF corner. You're probably right about not expecting much power at 155lbs, but he'll probably get bigger and stronger, and even so, he's definitely got more power than Punto or Revere... maybe not definitely.

 

Chih-Wei Hu was impressive in the start I was there for. 

 

Speaking of all these 2014 Cedar Rapids guys, Chad Christensen put up pretty solid, well-rounded numbers there last year but doesn't seem to get much prospect list love. I suppose he's around league average age, being a college guy.

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Sam, I hear you about Chad Christensen.  He did put solid numbers. But he falls into the category of AJ Peterson and Nate Roberts and BJ Hermsen and company as far as prospects go...

 

And this by no means is a negative towards any of them by any stretch of the imagination.  It just is what it is and I hope that the 3 non-retired ones I am mentioning here prove me wrong.  Go for it kidoes...

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So Christensen will be coming into his age 24 season, presumably at Ft Myers. If he were to continue to advance at the same pace (one level per season) he would play his AAA season at age 26- too old for me to be excited about. 

 

I think it would be interesting for an organization to take players like Christensen, and the others you mention- college guys who demonstrate some success right away at lower levels- and use them as 'filler' at AAA. They wouldn't take spots from players who could be called up, obviously, but it would give them the chance to get ahead of that age barrier before they become Doug Bernier/James Beresford/Eric Fryer. 

 

It looks like there are four new infielders signed at AAA: Brock Peterson, Argenis Diaz, Jose Martinez, and Heiker Meneses. I know they need players polished to certain level at AAA, but it surprises/bothers me that those spots couldn't have been filled from within the organization.

 

Anyway, all this being said, Christensen did have nearly a 25% K rate at CR, so...

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Agreed.  Unfortunately the Twins sign too many thirty somethings (or close) as a AAA (and AA often filler) instead of promoting within.   Beresford is kind of example of what you suggested.  He was promoted to AAA when 24. 

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So Christensen will be coming into his age 24 season, presumably at Ft Myers. If he were to continue to advance at the same pace (one level per season) he would play his AAA season at age 26- too old for me to be excited about. 

 

 

That's the prospect side of it, and why he wasn't in my Top 50 prospect lists either. However, he has the ability to play 4 infield positions and 3 outfield position and a great athlete. His role in the big leagues, should he get there, is utility player. I don't worry about age at all in that scenario. Can definitely still be a productive big league player, and sometimes those types come up at 27 and have 5-10 year careers. 

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Safe to say that Vielma is the best defensive SS prospect in the organization?  I would guess that Nick Gordon & Jorge Polanco generally get their higher ranking due to their bat more so than the glove.

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Safe to say that Vielma is the best defensive SS prospect in the organization?  I would guess that Nick Gordon & Jorge Polanco generally get their higher ranking due to their bat more so than the glove.

 

Depends who you are asking :)   I will definitely talk more about it when I present the highest ranked one.  Vielma is way up there, but still needs a bit of work. 

 

Definitely has the highest ceiling with the glove as far as SS prospects go for the Twins

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