It’s Time to Cash In for Jay Bruce
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A report has surfaced over the past week indicating that the Cincinnati Reds are exploring trading outfielder Jay Bruce if the right deal were to surface. With the Hot Stove season inching closer with each coming day, it should come as no surprise that trade rumors are floating at rapid rates. Unfortunately, the Minnesota Twins have yet to be linked to any big name free agents or potential trade candidates so far this offseason. This should not come as a surprise to most Twins’ fans as Terry Ryan and the front office have made little indication that they are willing to go out and add any pieces to improve this team, beyond a Black Friday special on the free agent heap towards the end of winter.
The Reds are in a precarious position after a disappointing 2014 season that saw them finish 76-86, their worst season since 2008. Injuries could be pointed to as reasons for their ineffectiveness and failure to live up to expectations, but that could be an excuse used for many teams across baseball each and every season. Whatever the reason, if the Reds are hoping to turn the tide around and return to contention for the 2015 season, they will need players like Bruce to lead the turnaround; so the fact that he is potentially being shopped makes little sense on the surface. In his career, Bruce has hit .251 with a .790 OPS, 182 home runs and 551 RBI, with his best season coming in 2013 when he hit .262 with 30 HR and 109 RBI. Acquiring Bruce will not be easy and it will not come cheaply; however, if you look deeper at the situation in Cincinnati, one might be able to understand what situation the Reds are potentially facing and be able to comprehend why trading one of their most dynamic offensive weapons who may be entering the prime of his career.
According to Sports Illustrated, the Reds are facing an unsettled situation after next season in regards to bringing back the majority of their 2014 starting rotation. Last season, the Reds signed Homer Bailey to a long-term contract; but outside of Bailey, the other four pitchers in the starting rotation—Johnny Cueto, Alfredo Simon, Mat Latos and Mike Leake—aren't signed past next season, nor is closer Aroldis Chapman. For a team hoping to remain in contention within a division that boasts the St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Milwaukee Brewers, and the rapidly improving Chicago Cubs, having a solidified starting rotation and quality depth at the position is something of a premium for the Reds. The Reds boasted one of the best starting staffs in all of baseball last season and though their 3.60 team ERA ranked in the middle of the NL, Reds pitchers held opposing batters to a league-best .239 average. Those numbers were largely credited to the starting rotation, whose collective 3.37 ERA ranked third in the NL. Needless to say, the reason the Reds were competitive has a lot to do with their quality starting pitching and if they wish to remain competitive, it will be via starting pitching and a offensive centered around Joey Votto.
The window for playoff contention may be closing if the team fails to keep this staff intact, so trading a player like Bruce may be a way to free up payroll and also improve the team in other areas of weakness. This is where the Twins come in.
No I have not started putting down the eggnog quite yet and yes I am of a stable mind when I stand behind this premonition: the Twins should, can, and need to cash in on some of their young talent in order to acquire an established player this offseason. If there is one thing we know, it is that the Twins’ biggest area of weakness is their starting pitching and, to some extent, portions of their bullpen however that has a lot to do with the ineptitude of the starting rotation than it has to do with the bullpen's talent. So why would the Twins want to invest in an area that is less dire than their starting pitching? Because they have enough assets to do so and a move like this would significantly improve a lineup, and an outfield, that drastically needs it; not to mention, a blockbuster trade like this would create a necessary buzz around the team that would hopefully keep dangling fans interested and buying tickets. In addition, the Twins have a general manager that is willing to take a risk when it comes to adding talent and in my opinion, things are a little too quiet around the Twins' front office which leads me to believe that there may be something brewing. Yet the main question that Ryan and his staff must ask themselves, and what many fans reading this article are probably wondering, what would it take to bring in Bruce and is he worth the price?
Reports out of Cincinnati indicate that the team is looking to add a left fielder and also add pitching depth to their rotation and bullpen. If they were to trade Bruce, they’d also have a vacancy in right field as well, so that must also be factored into any potential equation. If I were in Ryan’s seat, I would begin the discussion by offering a package of Phil Hughes, Aaron Hicks, and someone from the duo of Ricky Nolasco and Tommy Milone. I know many fans may scoff at trading Hughes after his brilliant 2014 campaign, but his track record does not offer a lot of stability and confidence to it and if the Twins are serious about acquiring a talent like Bruce, it will likely cost them one of their best arms.
In Hughes’ case, why not sell high on a pitcher with an unpredictable future? He seems like exactly the type of pitcher the Reds would be looking to add to their already solid rotation and he would come with two years remaining on his deal and a payroll friendly contract. Hicks has enough potential that the Reds may view him as a reclamation project and could plug him into an outfield spot with many years of control left at a cheap price. The inclusion of Nolasco would be a bit more difficult to complete due to his poor 2014 season and approximately $36 million left on his deal; but, like Hicks, the Reds could view Nolasco as a reclamation project with a solid track record in the National League that could be had at a reasonable price.
Another potential deal I believe the Reds would strongly consider would revolve around Brian Dozier. Personally, I’d be willing to part with Dozier, Hughes, and Hicks straight up for Bruce because he has the talent to transform a lineup and is signed through 2016 with a team option for 2017 to a payroll friendly deal. There is no guarantee that Dozier will continue to perform at the level he had this past season and his value may be at its height as well; not to mention that he is also due a hefty pay raise in the coming years and with suitable replacements potentially coming up through the minors (Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario), the Twins could use this as a perfect opportunity to flip Dozier for maximum value along with Hughes and Hicks. A package of Dozier, Hughes, and Hicks could even fetch a lower level minor leaguer or two in the deal, but Bruce would clearly be the centerpiece and motive for any such deal. In addition, the Reds have been rumored to be shopping Brandon Phillips over the past few seasons and could be looking for his long-term replacement in the near future, which would make Dozier the ideal fit in this deal.
So why do I believe this would be a great deal for the Twins and their future? For one, in either deal that I have presented, the Twins would not be sacrificing any of their prized prospects such as Alex Meyer, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, J.O Berrios, Kennys Vargas, etc. Whether or not the Reds would be willing to trade Bruce without the inclusion of at least one of those prospects remains to be seen, but there is no guarantee that any of these players will ever live up to the hype that has been bestowed upon them throughout their minor league career anyway. With that in mind, why not trade for a proven commodity that is entering the prime of his career? If kept intact, Bruce would be a cornerstone in place when the majority of these players eventually make it to the majors and this may be one of the only times that the Twins have enough assets to get a player of his caliber without sacrificing numerous talented prospects.
With Bruce in the fold, the Twins could trot out a lineup that looks like this as early as next season:
1. Danny Santana SS
2. Joe Mauer 1B
3. Kennys Vargas DH
4. Jay Bruce RF
5. Miguel Sano 3B
6. Oswaldo Arcia LF
7. Trevor Plouffe/Eduardo Escobar/Nunez 2B
8. Kurt Suzuki C
9. Eddie Rosario/Jordan Shafer CF
And still have a pitching rotation of (in no particular order):
1. Kyle Gibson
2. Trevor May
3. Alex Meyer
4. Nolasco/Millone/Pelfrey
5. Free Agent starter (Justin Masterson, Brett Anderson, etc.)
Under this scenario, the Twins still will be waiting on Buxton, Berrios, etc. to be making their way to the majors; but much like the Twins of the early 2000s, it has come to the time where—if the Twins are unwilling to spend money via free agency to bring in top-flight pitchers and if they are confident in the prospects that they have coming up—the Twins should bring up the young pitchers (with a few veterans thrown in) and grow with them as they learn to pitch at the big league level. The Twins will then have a great evaluation as to what they truly have with these kids and it will allow for them to take the next step into turning this franchise around as they gain experience and learn from their mistakes.
Maybe the prospects crash and burn when they get to the majors and the team is back to losing 100 games again every season; at this point, who really knows for sure? At the same time, if the Twins were to begin losing 100 plus games every year because of the youth movement, they’d at least be doing it with players who are young and hopefully improving instead of cheap veterans who are on the last legs of their career. Trading for Bruce would not solve the Twins problems overnight; if anything, it would likely make the situation worse in the short-term. However, if the Twins are ever to become a serious contender in this league again it will rest on the backs of their young starting pitching that is developing in the minors and a productive lineup that can provide the starters with run support. Bruce improves the potential of any future Twins’ lineup immensely upon arrival and gives new coach Paul Molitor a masher that can anchor the lineup while the youngsters develop and provide stability at a position in the outfield of great concern. All that is needed now is for management to be willing to step outside of their comfort zone and take a risk by making a blockbuster deal. Until then, we sit and wait as the Hot Stove adds one more coal to the fire.
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