Now that the season has wound down and the Twins have finished their fourth consecutive 90 loss season, it's time to start looking at a plan for 2015. While the 2014 season did not look so great in the record book, there were some very nice building blocks for the team. For one, the offense did quite well. This is especially noteworthy given that at the beginning of the season, the offense was, to put it mildly, horrid. The improvement was generated by seeing a healthy Joe Mauer return to the team and successful debuts of Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas. Oswaldo Arcia was also much better in the second half of the season posting an OPS > .800 in both August and September. While Vargas and Arcia have been personal top 10 prospects of mine, Santana has escaped my radar the last two seasons, and all he did was rake. Two younger players also established themselves as regulars. Brian Dozier followed up his second half spike last season with a sustained effort. While his batting average was lower than most would have liked, his power stats and on base stats were exceptional for a second baseman, and he did it while playing very good defense. Trevor Plouffe also earned a starting job with improvements in both his bat and glove. Overall, he was a top 5-10 3B placing him solidly above average. This bodes well for the future of the club.

The pitching side, however, was a disaster. Only Phil Hughes was an above average pitcher. Kyle Gibson did improve significantly posting numbers that would be equivalent to a 4ish starter. Given his age and minor league career, there's a good chance he builds off of this. The team saw debuts for Logan Darnell, Yohan Pino, and Trevor May as well, with May getting the bulk of the starts near the end of the season. May was terrible in August, though he improved to merely bad in September. However, here too there's reason for hope. He kept his K rate over 9 and dropped his walk rate significantly in September, walking only 8 in 5 games while striking out 29. He clearly has work to do, but like Gibson, there's good reason to think that he can take a big step forward in 2015 after his AAA breakout this year. Pino looked like a guy who can be stashed on the 40 man while he has options and brought up for the occasional spot start. Darnell clearly needed more work, but given his K rates both in the minors and in the majors, could amount to something, whether that's with the Twins remains to be seen, especially with what is coming up the pipeline.

The peripherals for the team improved as well. In 2013, their Pythagorean record indicated they were significantly worse than their overall record, being bested only by the Astros. In 2014, their Pythagorean record said that the team was better than the record indicated. While that alone doesn't indicate improvement, it does say that lady luck may have played against the Twins a bit this season.

That said, it's becoming more clear that ownership wants to see a return to winning. Season ticket sales have been dropping steadily for several years now, and with no all star game to boost them this offseason, the drop off is likely going to be severe. While at this point, there's little to stop the short term losses, a return to respectability is going to be a priority. The following is my plan.

I'd start with coaching. I do not agree with the presumption that coaching has little effect in the win column, as a coaches job is to consistently put a team in position to win. Often, this is accomplished through managing egos in the clubhouse, which is very difficult to put a metric on, but the coaching situation involves motivating players, developing younger players, identifying flaws in a player's mechanics that other teams are exploiting, and managing games in such a way to minimize weaknesses and maximize strengths. Given the four consecutive 90 loss seasons, I thin, it's reasonable safe to assume that new voices need to be brought into the organization. As such, I'd suggest that it's time to start cleaning house here. I'd keep Molitor, Cuellar, and Brunanski, but beyond that, I'd retain no other major league coaches. The Twins will likely let Gardenhire stay on another year, but I think it's time for them to find a new voice to manage the clubhouse, and in particular one that is open to many of the new ideas being brought forth by statistics people. Of these three, I'd promote Molitor to the manager role, if he were inclined to take it. If he were not, I'd consider going after Joe Maddon or an external candidate, likely paying very close attention to the Cardinals or Rays organizations. I'd also bring up Doug Mientkewitz from the minor league staff and possibly Jake Mauer to fill position roles. I'd also look outside the organization for remaining vacancies.

Player moves are a bit more difficult to do, as free agency does not appear to have what the Twins most likely need. The Twins are also in an odd situation where keeping many of the players that they currently have would be in their best interest, as many of these guys will likely play a role in the future. While the offense was good, the Twins were hurt by poor defensive play, due to playing players out of position and playing players who just could not defend. The goal in 2015 is to improve here. Let's start with the guys who aren't going anywhere:

1B - Mauer - 23M/yr. As a catcher, Mauer might have some demand. As a 1B, he has very little. He rebounded quite nicely the second half and looked more like his old self. Bottom line though, he's not going anywhere. His defense at first should improve, though he was hardly the problem when it came to bad defense.

2B - Dozier. In 2014, Dozier established himself as a member of the next wave. While his batting average was a bit low, he showed exceptional plate discipline as well as some much needed power for the organization. He is one of only a handful of Twins to have a 20/20 season, and for a while there was some thought that he could have 30/30 season. To add to it, he played defense at a nearly elite level. He's arbitration eligible in 2016. Given the situation, I think the most prudent course of action is to work out a contract extension with Dozier over the offseason. He has four years of team control, so the team could likely work out a 5 or 6 year deal. I would attempt to sign Dozier to a 5 year, 30M contract with a 6th year team option of 10M, with a 1M buyout. This would lock him up for his most productive years and keep him relatively easy to trade should another 2B prospect step up.

RF - Arcia. Arcia really improved his offense in the second half of this season. His overall numbers, however, were not terribly impressive. What Arcia has shown is that he can hit. His problems deal with a swing too often mentality as well as defense. Given the improvement on the offense, I'd recommend that he spend a lot of time this offseason working on his defensive skills, noting that a step forward in 2015 would likely earn him a very nice contract that offseason.

C - Suzuki/Pinto. Signed for another 2 years, Suzuki is not going anywhere. I would, however, plan on Pinto being his primary backup as well as occasional DH and maybe some OF duties to keep his bat in the lineup. I'd let Pinto know that he should be working on taking a few fly balls in the offseason to get used to some occasional time in the OF and that he will be catching 60-80 games next year should Suzuki remain healthy and productive.

DH - Vargas. Vargas has a pretty good rookie year and at this point, he's earned the right to break with the 2015 team. While I would not be shocked if he were to struggle (and be sent down) in his sophomore campaign, for the time being, this job is his.

3B - Plouffe. He's getting one more year. Sano is going to need time to develop and Ploufe was an above average 3B. I think he stays on the roster for another year and will likely be a trade candidate in the 2015 offseason if Sano develops as hoped.

SS - Of the position players, this position is the most difficut to fill. Both Escobar and Santana put up above average numbers for the SS postion, though Santana put his up primarily in CF. While I like Santana as a long term solution, his numbers were inflated by a very high BABIP and a K rate that says he's going to come crashing back down to earth. On the flip side, he certainly earned a job to start. The problem as I see it is that his future is at SS, and from what I've read, he needs some work on his defense. I'd dangle Escobar this offseason to see if he could fetch something of value, as he too deserves to be a starting SS, however, this move comes with some risk, as there really isn't a fall back plan should Santana find he needs some work. I wouldn't trade Escobar unless he brought back something of value. If that were the case, the Twins could move Escobar to a super utility role and have Santana starting at SS or they could let Santana spend some time in AAA working on his defense.

SP - Hughes, Gibson, and May. Each of these guys are staying for various reasons. Hughes had a record breaking season this year. He will be the opening day starter and will remain with the team. Gibson had a pretty good first full season notching a 4.47 ERA in approximately 180 innings. While those numbers are not outstanding by any means, they were above replacement level and should continue to improve with experience. As it is, these numbers are more of a number 4 type starter, and another year should see improvement on all of them. Baring injury, I'd expect Gibson to pitch 200 innings and bring ERA down a bit closer to 4 with a slight rise in the K rate. Trevor May will also return in my plans. While he didn't do as well as I'd have liked in his rookie campaign, he did improve significantly. His break out season in AAA indicates that he has little to prove there, and given his ability to miss bats, he will likely settle in next year and put up much better numbers.

RP - Perkins, Fein, Theilbar, and Pelfrey. While I suspect Pelfrey is going to get every opportunity to start, I don't see may ways for this to happen. I could see arguing that this is a sunk cost, but this isn't how the Twins do things. I suspect Pelfrey will get a shot in the pen. Perkins will remain, and I'd keep Fein and Thielbar around. However, that leaves at a minimum 2 open slots, most likely 3. I'd non-tender Duensing and Swarzack or trade them for whatever I could get. I'd tap internal candidates for these roles giving an open tryout for Tonkin, Guererra, Pressley, Oliveros, Thompson, and Achter.

Free agency:

I don't see the Twins dipping into free agency that much. This is due to not matching up well with needs. I would make an effort to sign Colby Rasmus to a 1 year deal to play CF. I'd try to get an option out of that deal as well. Rasmus would provide a bridge to Hicks/Buxton.

Trades:

First big trade:

I think trades make a lot more sense to the Twins this offseason as there are some teams that match up a bit better. The LA Dodgers are a big one with 3 expensive contracts in their OF, a cheap option in Puig who isn't going anywhere, and some nice prospects coming up through their system. I'd target Matt Kemp, who put together a decent season but isn't worth the 21 M they are paying him over the next 5 years. The Twins need a LF, there's no replacement in the near term. Kemp played CF, puts up better than average numbers with the bat and should be average or better in a corner defensively. Given his contract, the Dodgers won't be getting much for him unless they kick in a large portion of this salary. Given the Twin's youth movement, they should have cash for the forseable future as their payroll will largely drop. This won't hurt their future, though it could potentially hamstring some free agency moves if Kemp were to suddenly stop playing well. That said, he's 29, so he should be able to be productive through the remainder of his contract, just not to the value of his contract. I'd attempt to dangle Escobar or Nolasco plus maybe a C prospect to bring Kemp over to MN.

The second trade I'd attempt to make is to add some higher ceiling pitching to the team. The problem as I see it is that finding this type of talent is pretty difficult to do. Two teams looking to be making some moves would be the Diamondbacks and the Reds. The problem, however, is that I don't see the Twins having what it would take to get a guy like Archie Bradley or Robert Stephenson. Both of these guys would be insanely expensive, and there's no chance either team would let someone like that go without acquiring something of equal value. I don't see the Twins dangling Buxton or Sano for one of these guys, so in reality, I don't see it happening. Perhaps AZ might be willing to deal as they showed a willingness to deal Trevor Bauer to Cleveland, but given their play this year, and their need for pitching at the major league level, trading one of their 3 top 100 prospects playing in the high minors makes very little sense. In the end, I don't see this happening unless the Twins are completely sold on Plouffe.

Minor league moves.

I'd send Rosario, Sano, Berrios, Burdi, and Buxton to AA with the hope that each could earn a midseason promotion. Meyer would start in AAA, and I'd expect him to be called up at some point in the season.

Final Roster

C - Suzuki/Pinto

1B - Mauer

2B - Dozier

3B - Plouffe

SS - Escobar (if no trade is made)

LF - Kemp

CF - Rasmus

RF - Arcia

BN - Pinto, Beresford (utility), Schaffer (4th OF), Nunez, Parmelee

SP - Hughes, Gibson, May, Nolasco, Millone

BP - Perkins, Fein, Theilbar, Pelfrey, Tonkin, Pressley, Oliveros, and Guerrera,