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Top 50 Twins Prospects


Shane Wahl

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Making prospect lists can be difficult. When evaluating players across 7 different minor league teams and various foreign backgrounds, it is a challenge to weigh floor, ceiling, age, and established progress through the system.

 

I wanted to provide an updated list of Twins prospects. I also thought I would not take the easy way out and just list half of all the good or good-ish minor leaguers in the Twins system (which is what the "top 70" list comes down to!).

 

I try to balance out younger high-ceiling types (in the Twins case, this means mostly pitchers from ages 18-20+) and guys who have advanced and are real potential contributors in the show in the next year or two.

This has obviously been difficult for me to get this list down to 50, so keep that in mind before judging me. But judge away.

 

First a couple of notes: Danny Santana has graduated and Nate Roberts has been released.

 

1. Byron Buxton, CF

 

Buxton is still no. 1 and is still going to be the Twins starting CF by September 2015. He is a legit 30/30 kind of threat, though it could be more like 20/40.

2. Miguel Sano, 3B

 

I don't see any real reason to worry (more) about his future at third base given the injury. The man works hard and should be fine. I have to imagine a promotion to the Twins after the All-Star break in 2015.

3. Alex Meyer, SP RH

 

Given pitching injuries these days I think it is wiser to get stars like Meyer up fast. Well, this means he would get a turn in the bullpen cranking it up for about 15 innings for the Twins for the rest of the year, in my world, after a few more starts in Rochester (simply for innings).

4. Jose Berrios, SP RH

 

Speaking of getting stars to the Show early, Berrios isn't going to be 24 or 25 before he gets a taste. Berrios should finish with around 145 innings this year. Expect a full year at New Britain next year to build up everything and then I imagine 2016 is his year to arrive. Berrios could be a guy to get a lot of 5-6 inning treatment early in seasons to preserve him for those Octobers that are coming . . .

5. Kohl Stewart, SP RH

 

Stewart is really young to be pitching in Cedar Rapids. 2015 will be a year likely split between Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers building innings (hopefully to 120 or so). Stewart could arrive in 2017 as another young pitcher quickly climbing the ranks.

6. Jorge Polanco, SS/2B

Polanco has already been a Twin for awhile this year and that, while strange, bodes well for his near future. He will struggle the rest of the year in New Britain and should spend 2015 there learning to play the shortstop position. We know he should be ready to contribute by 2016, so I would like the Twins to now be a little bit patient with his development instead of throwing him back with the Twins prematurely.

7. Nick Gordon, SS

 

Gordon jumped out of the gates strong in E-town but has come back down to earth. EST and E-Town again to start 2015, but I would think Gordon could see Fort Myers by 2016.

8. Kennys Vargas, 1B

 

Vargas just smacked his first homer for the Twins. I placed him on my original prospect list after the 2010 season in the 40s, I believe. He has been consistently rising on that list and now has fully arrived as a real middle of the order threat.

9. Trevor May, SP RH

 

May will be up pitching for the Twins on Saturday. And he deserves it. He can be a middle of the rotation innings eater. Hopefully the Twins stop making the mistake . . . and get May to the big leagues immediately.

10. Eddie Rosario, OF/2B

 

What an ordeal with this guy. I originally had him at 16 after his first season in 2010. He is not re-acclimating himself well to New Britain this year. There is no rush with him at the moment, other than a 40-man addition in November. He should be with the Twins at some point in 2015, but that really is up to him right now.

 

11. Stephen Gonsalves, SP LH

 

Gonsalves could be a top 8 prospect soon for the Twins and might be a top 5 prospect right now for half the teams in baseball. I think he will pretty much be on the same timeline as Kohl Stewart, though there are some innings to be pitched. I have to think that he splits time between Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers next year.

12. Nick Burdi, RP RH

 

Burdi doesn't belong, at all, in Cedar Rapids. Hopefully he gets promoted to Fort Myers and will then contribute to the playoff run. It would make sense to do that and have someone dominant for the late innings. He should, without question, be the closer for New Britain next year.

13. Lewis Thorpe, SP LH

There is no reason to not like Thorpe's 2014 season right now. He turns 19 in three and a half months and his striking batters out at a rate of more than nine per inning in A ball. Not the GCL or that E-Town nonsense. A ball. He isn't going to start anywhere but Cedar Rapids next year building innings, with a possible promotion to Fort Myers to work out of the bullpen to keep the innings down some. This guy could actually arrive in 2017 at some point. This would mean the possibility of Gibson, Meyer, May, Berrios, Stewart, Gonsalves, and Thorpe being legitimate starting pitchers in 2017.

 

14. Travis Harrison, 1B/LF

 

Harrison is rounding out as a pretty good hitter, though the power has dropped this year. He has good plate discipline and has really cut down on the whiffs this year, even after advancing a level. He is not going to last at 3B, is sorta not tall enough for 1B, and the bat amounts to being pretty weak in the corners. The Twin have to view Harrison as a prime trade candidate.

 

15. Adam Walker, RF

 

Power isn't everything, but man Walker has a lot. He doesn't walk enough, strikes out too much, and has bad contact rates, but he still smashes the baseball. 2015 full season in New Britain, I would have to imagine. It's interesting how the Twins treat him. He is the clearest position player trade candidate after Travis Harrison, in my view.

 

16. Michael Tonkin, RP RH

 

Tonkin was a victim of the Twins obsession with pitchers like Matt Guerrier, Jared Burton, and Anthony Swarzak. He should fit in nicely as a setup man for Perkins in 2015.

 

17. Michael Cederoth, P RH

 

As a starter, Cederoth is a very good prospect. As a reliever he would drop some. He has been solid at E-Town starting right now.

 

18. Zach Jones, RP RH

He's back this year, finally. He should be setting up Burdi in New Britain next year and the duo should be sickly dominant.

 

19. Fernando Romero, SP RH

 

Romero's value as a starter is tremendous. If he can stay healthy and stay starting, he will jump up this list fast.

 

20. Max Kepler, OF/1B

 

Still only 21.5 years old, he is on the 40-man (a bad decision, but that is another matter). He could really benefit from another season starting in Fort Myers before moving to New Britain. The BB/K rate is good enough, but the power is lacking right now. He also has trouble getting hits. I do like patience with Kepler, but the time is 2015 for him to break out or fall further down this list.

 

21. Felix Jorge, SP RH

Jorge is another one of those 20ish pitchers who will need to prove it fully in A ball. He has a really high ceiling.

22. A.J. Achter, RP RH

 

A very underappreciated reliever, Achter should have already gotten a chance with the Twins. Hopefully he will be a Twin in 2015.

 

23. Sean Gilmartin, SP LH

 

The lefty is still fairly young and he should work on striking batters out in AAA next year before filling in as a spot starter for the Twins (instead of Pino, Deduno, and Johnson, at least)

 

24. Daniel Ortiz, OF

 

I am bumping my adopted prospect up this far because I do think that he has progressed consistently to warrant a real shot at the 4th OF spot on the Twins roster in 2015. He doesn't take walks, but the overall hitting is basically Arcia-light.

 

25. Tyler Duffey, SP RH

 

I like the K/BB rate a lot. He should legitimately deserve a AAA spot next year to start the season. Duffey is a success story for the Twins strategy of drafting relievers out of college to convert to the starting rotation.

 

26. Niko Goodrum, 3B/SS

 

I keep Niko up in the top 30, but much like Kepler, he is going to have to start showing more at the plate. He can swipe bases and can probably handle himself on the left side of the infield. Another potential FTM/NB split candidate for 2015.

 

27. Yorman Landa, P RH

 

Moved to the bullpen for the time being and his K rate jumped dramatically while the walk rate stayed the same (too high).

28. Amaurys Minier, 1B/OF

 

He's 18.5 years old and now starting to excel in the GCL. Good power potential, but the Twins will likely let him take his time and he will likely be in E-Town next year.

29. Lester Oliveros, RP RH

 

He's been in the minors for a long time, but the strikeouts can't be ignored. Another very good setup man candidate for next year.

 

30. Mitch Garver, C

 

Garver has been fantastic for Cedar Rapids this year. It isn't at all clear why he isn't already in Fort Myers. His time at 1B and DH this year has really been about keeping his bat in the lineup when he isn't catching. The Twins have a potential starting catcher right here. It would be nice to see him in AA at some point next season.

31. Aderlin Mejia, SS/UTIL

My adoptees get bumped on my list because it is my list. That said, I actually like Mejia and think that he could be a super utility player down the road. The bat is still a work in progress, but he is young. He has walked more than he has struck out so far this year and has good speed.

32. Levi Michael, 2B/SS

Michael has quietly stuck around on this list, and I might actually have him too low here. His hit tool has caught up with his plate discipline this year and he is starting to master A-ball. He will be in AA next year and then we will see what he is made of. It is too early, still, to write him off.

33. Deibinson Romero, 3B/1B

I have always liked Romero. He is going to be 28 soon, but he has now put up two near identical seasons in AAA, posting a combined .793 OPS in 793 plate appearances. He is mashing doubles and has excellent plate discipline. He is not a good defensive third baseman, but can serve as an adequate 3B/1B/DH type to fill in if Trevor Plouffe is injured or traded, and if Miguel Sano's arrival is still a bit away.

34. Jason Kanzler, OF

Kanzler turns 24 soon, so his solid play in Cedar Rapids should be taken with a grain of salt. The initial results from Fort Myers are good, however. He strikes out a lot and doesn't walk very much. He has very good speed and adequate pop.

35. Randy Rosario, SP LH

 

The verdict is still out on Rosario, and his K/BB rate is ugly in very limited time this year.

 

36. Dalton Hicks, 1B

 

He was fairly bad to start the season, but has hit very well in the past month. Decent pop, but he is very blocked behind Mauer and Vargas right now.

 

37. James Beresford, INF

 

Beresford is still hanging around. He is very similar to Deibinson Romero in that he has replicated his AAA numbers from a year ago. It's unfortunate that he doesn't have good speed. He has developed some doubles pop this year, which will help his case. He is really a classic utility infielder type and if the Twins decide to shop Escobar, Beresford could step in easily.

 

38. Stuart Turner, C

 

Turner has me eating some crow. I was not sold on him when the Twins drafted him, but he has been fine at the plate in Fort Myers, which is somewhat surprising.

 

39. Taylor Rogers, SP LH

 

Rogers really has me eating some crow. I had whined about his K rate, but he has improved upon advancing to AA. He is giving up a lot more hits, however. He should return to AA in 2015 to work on lowering that.

40. Aaron Slegers, SP RH

 

Slegers is doing better than I expected. He doesn't walk many and his strikeout numbers are respectable. He seems to be giving up some untimely hits, but he is already at AA. He'll start there again in 2015.

41. Tyler Jones, RP RH

 

He'll be 25 soon and the strikeouts have dropped some this year in Fort Myers. He will be setting up in 2015 in AA.

 

42. Adrian Salcedo, RP RH

 

Still around and his ERA this year is a bit misleading. He is only 23.5 and should settle in to the bullpen role again nicely in AA in 2015. He could emerge as a frontrunner for promotion to the Twins in 2015 at some point though.

 

43. Cole Johnson, RP LH

 

Johnson is combining a great K rate with a great BB rate, and as a lefty this could mean fast-tracking to the big leagues in what must be the coming post-Duensing, post-Thielbar era.

 

44. Chad Christensen, OF/1B

 

A potential 4th OF/1B utility player. He has excellent speed and is doing well in Cedar Rapids. Fort Myers, next year, will be a good test.

 

45. Max Murphy, OF

 

Murphy dominated E-Town before being promoted to Cedar Rapids. Good power and speed. Will be at Cedar Rapids for 2015.

 

46. Brandon Peterson, RP RH

Obliterated Cedar Rapids and was quickly moved to Fort Myers. It's been more of the same there. Could totally fly up this list in 2015.

47. Alex Wimmers, RP RH

 

There was no way I was leaving Wimmers off, since he has been on this list since my first one after the 2010 season. The move to the bullpen could save his career. Should be there at AAA in 2015.

48. J.D. Williams, OF

 

Williams has not been good this year after the strange assignment back to Cedar Rapids after last year's promotion to Fort Myers. I don't understand that decision. Hopefully he can turn it around in 2015 and hopefully that happens in Fort Myers this time!

49. Todd Van Steensel, RP RH

 

Completely dominated at Cedar Rapids. He is now at Fort Myers and is going to start there in 2015.

 

50. Chih-Wei Hu, SP RH

 

He has been nothing but very solid the past two seasons. He has made it to Cedar Rapids and is doing well. The project is going to have to be to build innings pitched between now and the end of 2016.

 

Honorable Mentions: Logan Darnell, Kuo Hua Lo, Jake Reed, Dereck Rodriguez (now pitching), Jared Wilson, John Curtiss, Sam Clay, Pat Kelly

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I thought you were going to leave off my favorite dark horse Alex Wimmers. Glad to see he made your list. Like Gardy, I have a few players who are "my guys," Hicks, Wimmers, Goodrum and Kepler to name a few. Joe Benson was another, but he never seemed to put it all together. I still check up on his box scores... waiting for lightening to strike.

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Like the list, but have to debate the absence of Brett Lee.  Intangibles have to be important.  All he does is WIN and always with a low era.  Most underrated prospect in Twins system. 

 

I also like the knuckler man Tomshaw, but his pressence in FT Myers tells the story as to what the Twins must think.  Another excellent pitch to contact guy.  That's not always a bad thing.

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It's a fair criticism regarding Lee. I cannot imagine him doing well, at all, in AA. We shall see. I didn't realize that he hasn't given up a homer this year! That's crazy.

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I believe the likelihood of Actually ever appearing in a Twins Uniform should influence the ranking more than potential. That might lead to adjusting Burdi, Gilmartin, and Vargas upward and with all that has happened to Eddie Rosario, maybe lowering his rank...

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Buxton is still no. 1 and is still going to be the Twins starting CF by September 2015. He is a legit 30/30 kind of threat, though it could be more like 20/40.

 

I like to call him a legitimate 20/20/20/20 guy... The list of guys to do that in MLB history is extremely short.  Only four names, to be exact.

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I like to call him a legitimate 20/20/20/20 guy... The list of guys to do that in MLB history is extremely short.  Only four names, to be exact.

 

I think Carl Crawford in his hay day when I think of Buxton.  .280-.300, 15 HR, 60 SB, 10-15 triples.  The difference is defense, Buxton plays a more important position and has a much, much, much better arm.

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Great list, Shane.  Do your students do their homework as well as you do yours?

 

1a) What?  Where's the love for Stephen Pryor? /jk

1b) What?  How is Brandon Paulson not in your Top 20? /smh, but while also- /jk

 

2) On Danny Ortiz, he really stood out at the plate on my visit to Louisville, so much so that I looked up his numbers and discovered after a slow start upon promotion, he's really coming on in AAA.....310 BA/.879 OPS over the last month or so.  He looks fine in LF, do you have a feel enough for his defense to hazard a guess if he can make it to the Twins as a 4th OF?  It looks like they have to make a decision on keeping him or not by November, what's your verdict?

 

3) Some are writing off Zach Jones after his aneurysm (based on their drafting of a boatload of RPs of late, maybe even the Twins management, as well?), anything you've seen or heard tell you different?  The prospects of a healthy Jones and Burdi together in a Twins pen in a year or so is mouth-watering.

 

4) Any Dominican/International under the radar types that are poised to jump onto your list?  (ie,19 year old SS, Manuel Guzman, takes more BBs than Ks, glove?...is in the Aderlin Mejia- or Engelb Vielma- type player-mode or something else?.....And what about Diaz and Tapia in DSL?-  I fear that the Twins kept missing the boat on all of the Cubans, and now the money is really coming in to outbid the Twins on the best young Caribbeans)

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I think Carl Crawford in his hay day when I think of Buxton.  .280-.300, 15 HR, 60 SB, 10-15 triples.  The difference is defense, Buxton plays a more important position and has a much, much, much better arm.

 

I think there's quite a bit more in Buxton than a Crawford comp, but Crawford also had some fantastic years.

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Hu is low, but let's see him keep this going.

 

Who are the 4 20/20/20/20 guys? Mays, Granderson, Rollins, and . . .

 

Goulik, I understand that and if I were more dedicated I would probably make a matrix or something to map out floor to ceiling potential on one axis and then proximity to the majors on the other. The practical issue is the difference between potential major contributors and guys who are 22-25 on the roster.
Zach Jones should be fine. The AA bullpen next year could be really spectacular.
I do think Ortiz can be a 4th OF, though if Buxton and Hicks are around, he wouldn't be needed in CF.

I like Manuel Guzman and a few others. It's hard to tell with many of these guys until they get past the GCL and many aren't even at the GCL yet.

 

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Zach Jones should be fine. The AA bullpen next year could be really spectacular.

I do think Ortiz can be a 4th OF, though if Buxton and Hicks are around, he wouldn't be needed in CF.

I like Manuel Guzman and a few others. It's hard to tell with many of these guys until they get past the GCL and many aren't even at the GCL yet.

 

 

If ZJ can come back at 100%, watch out...what a potential pen just a year from now.

 

I am thinking Hicks is traded once the Twins are certain Buxton is settled in.  Will the Twins keep Ortiz around taking a 40-man spot until this occurs? 

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It seems that Ryan Eades should be on the list. He was a 2013 2nd round draft pick and has been pitching in Cedar Rapids.

He has a terrible 5.82 ERA and he only has 83 K's in 102 innings, but this is his 1st full year of pro ball and looks like a gritty pitcher.

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I have never been an Eades fan.  Seen him pitch three times. My guy that I would have higher is Vielma. Good fielding true shortstops are valuable.  

 

Thanks for the list. Enjoyed going past the top 10 or so.  Don't hear as much about the others and there is a lot of talent in the second 25.

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Vielma should have clearly been an honorable mention. I want to make sure the defense holds up as the bat continues to develop. I don't really care for Eades. Wheeler is someone to watch, but I have strong doubts.


 

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