Gyorko is hitting about as well as Pedro Florimon right now. While Dozier's average is not quite where I'd like it, I believe I've seen enough to state that Dozier is part of the Twins future resurgence. Despite the average he leads the league in runs, already has 12 stolen bases and his defense has been phenomenal. I wouldn't even mind giving Dozier the Kipnis deal at this point. He is the only player that I see right now that is deserving of an extension.

I think your math might be off. Try running some numbers for his arbitration years before throwing numbers out there.

2015 Under team control next year. $550k est.

2016 1st year arbitration. $2-3 million (Plouffe got $2M+)

2017 2nd year arbitration. ?

2018 3rd year arbitration. ?

2019 1st Year Free Agent ??

Now to come up with the rest of your $40M contract, 2017-1019 he is going to average $12M per year? If he goes to his 2nd year of arbitration, what will he get? Maybe $6-8M? The last two years of that contract will be one ugly mess. This is the kind of contract that could cripple a team on a budget if he regresses or gets injured.

If you argue that it is only an average $8M per year, look at how much you are overpaying in the first year. When your attendance revenue is still down. When you could use that extra $7M towards another player. When you could possibly pay him significantly less over that same period by going year to year with no risk of losing him until the final year when he will be 31.

I would recommend waiting to offer a long term contract until after arbitration numbers are exchanged, preferably during the second year of his eligibility. At that point you will have a feeling for what he will be looking for long term because he will have submitted an offer of what he wants. You will also have seen him play 3-4 years at the major league level.

The Twins can afford to pay his arbitration costs. They don't need to buy his decline phase.

Go year to year and plan trade high in his free agent year. Let some one else buy the decline.

I think we've talked about this a couple times before, but I still think waiting to make a long-term deal with Dozier is the right move. Locking him up for 5 years might seem advantageous, but I don't know that you need to do that now, before he's even reached arbitration. As you noted, he's not going to hit the FA market until 31 and there is plenty of room for regression (or maybe even progression!) between now and then, and plenty of time to secure his services if he continues to play like a stud. It might cost the Twins an extra million or two (per season) by waiting, but giving him 35mill guaranteed seems much riskier than waiting it out at least for another 9 months.

If the twins sign him to an extension, i dont think it will be this year and if they do sign him they need to get 2 of his free agent years locked up. Otherwise I really dont see the benefit. But if he has another good year I really think they should sign him up

It will be a wait and see. See what Santana brings to the mix. If Rosario is an option. If someone else materializes. Is Dozier stuck at second. Can he be a DH at 31 that also can be a super utility guy. If he hits the 30/30 club or higher, than te Twins will be forced t do something.