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Tigers looking to trade Porcello


ashbury

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I'll try this as a blog entry instead of a forum post.

 

The Tigers continue to shop Rick Porcello to no avail. MLB Trade Rumors states that the Padres turned down a chance to trade either Huston Street or Luke Gregerson to get him. Other deals have failed to materialize. I suppose the equivalent from the Twins standpoint would be Glen Perkins, factoring in the NL and the Padres home park. Would you make that deal, if the Tigers also saw it that way (and were willing to trade intra-division)?

 

Porcello was a hotshot coming out of HS who had a very promising major league season as a 20 year old, but has failed to progress (or regressed, actually), sporting an ultra-Twins-like K/9 in the 5's the last two years which actually lifts his lifetime average a bit. Few walks but very hittable (Pitch To Contact?), with not overly many HR. He's in his arbitration years but can't be a free agent until 2016, according to baseball-reference.com. Based on his track record he'd not be much of an improvement over what the Twins rotation already consists of, but at age 24 there is still seems the chance of a breakout, in which case you have him for three years, at increasing cost of course.

 

My own take is that I'd be on the fence and would want my scouts to have a consensus that Porcello can still improve before I'd go for such a trade. (Which is hardly different from any proposed trade, but even more so than usual.) It's tempting, but you'd want to have a clear idea what it is you think you can fix, which is always a risky proposition when other people have already tried.

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I'll try this as a blog entry instead of a forum post.

 

The Tigers continue to shop Rick Porcello to no avail. MLB Trade Rumors states that the Padres turned down a chance to trade either Huston Street or Luke Gregerson to get him. Other deals have failed to materialize. I suppose the equivalent from the Twins standpoint would be Glen Perkins, factoring in the NL and the Padres home park. Would you make that deal, if the Tigers also saw it that way (and were willing to trade intra-division)?

 

Porcello was a hotshot coming out of HS who had a very promising major league season as a 20 year old, but has failed to progress (or regressed, actually), sporting an ultra-Twins-like K/9 in the 5's the last two years which actually lifts his lifetime average a bit. Few walks but very hittable (Pitch To Contact?), with not overly many HR. He's in his arbitration years but can't be a free agent until 2016, according to baseball-reference.com. Based on his track record he'd not be much of an improvement over what the Twins rotation already consists of, but at age 24 there is still seems the chance of a breakout, in which case you have him for three years, at increasing cost of course.

 

My own take is that I'd be on the fence and would want my scouts to have a consensus that Porcello can still improve before I'd go for such a trade. (Which is hardly different from any proposed trade, but even more so than usual.) It's tempting, but you'd want to have a clear idea what it is you think you can fix, which is always a risky proposition when other people have already tried.

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John, this is one of those decisions where makeup and scrappiness might actually mean something (in addition to his FIP :) ). I would strongly consider the trade with a good signoff from my scouts, if he has a real willingness to put in the time, and if we could get him for a light trade-off (middling prospect(s) in the Minors). That being said, he would be a Twin till 2016 you say, but would this give us many years of him being good. All told, I can't imagine the Tigers would trade him for what I would offer, but it's worth a shot to make a call.

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