Is Joey Gallo a sneaky good pick-up, or is he just another Miguel Sano?
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I would bet most of you had a similar thought to me when you saw the Twins signed Joey Gallo to a 1 year, $11 million deal for 2023... That thought being "Max Kepler must be getting traded." While that hasn't materialized, a few other moves have that have led to the Twins holding onto Kepler as their starting Right Fielder, as of now.
Max Kepler is still a productive player, and projects to have a solid enough year this year as well. ZiPs projects Kepler to have a slash line of .231/.320/.410, which is projected for a 2.3 fWAR. Not spectacular, but a solid regular nonetheless.
As for Gallo, his skillset is different than Kepler's, which makes them both valuable, but in different ways. Gallo has significantly more power, but likely a much lower batting average. Sound familiar? Yes, similar to Miguel Sano. One key different in Gallo is that he is a gold-glove level player in the OF, which adds to his value much more than Sano ever had. Gallo's ZiPs projections are .194/.330/.426, which is good for a 2.9 fWAR. He is also projected for 25 HR and 60 RBI.
Now let's compare Gallo and Sano, who many people are making comparisons to: In comparing Gallo to Sano, you may seem some similarities, such as a high strikeout rate. Gallo (37.3% K rate for his career), Sano (36.4% K rate for his career). Another similarity is the prodigious power both players have. Gallo has hit 38+ HR 3 times, which is what the Twins FO is hoping for going forward. As for Sano, he hit 30 HR one time, in 2021.
The differences are the key to why Joey Gallo should be more valuable than Sano. Sano was not great defensively, accounting for -9 Defensive Runs saved at 1B over his career and -32 Defensive Runs Saved at 3B over his career. I'm going to ignore the horrible time he had in the OF in 2016 for the sake of this discussion.
Meanwhile, Gallo has been worth a whopping 37 DRS in the outfield since 2019, which is good for 3rd in MLB, tied with Byron Buxton, and trailing Michael A. Taylor (Twins 4th OF) and Mookie Betts. Pretty darn good company, I would say.
So let's look at a direct comparison to see if Gallo is similar to Sano, or if he is a different player using the 5-tools of a player.
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Skill |
Sano |
Gallo |
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Contact |
I would say this is similar. Low batting average, high K% for both guys. |
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Power |
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X I’d give this to Gallo because of the more consistent power across multiple seasons. 3 seasons of 38+ HR and Sano only having one season at 30 HR. |
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Speed |
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X I’d give a slight edge to Gallo solely because he has 29 career SB versus Sano’s 5. Neither guy steals a ton of bases. Also – Joey Gallo’s average sprint speed is 27.1 and Sano’s is 26.7 so Gallo is slightly faster. |
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Arm |
Sano had a very strong arm when he played at 3B, but at 1B, your arm isn’t shown off quite as much. Gallo has had some good years in OF assists, but it is hard to give the edge to one guy over the other when comparing this tool. |
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Fielding |
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X As discussed above, Gallo is a gold-glove winning fielder, and to put it simply, Sano is not. |
In using this to compare the two players, yes, there are absolutely similarities, but there are key differences that show Joey Gallo will be a much more valuable player to the Twins. This may be attributed to the position he plays, but I also think it will be contributed to his power and his glove more than anything.
What do you all think? Is Joey Gallo another Miguel Sano, or will he prove to be a sneaky good pick-up for the Twins this year?
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