100% agree, a bird in hand is better than two in the bush in this scenario. It's such a powerful thing to have. Being in a place to better handle his usage now, we will likely see 'second half Duran' for 162. 

I know how I felt when Emmanuel Clase entered the game for Cleveland. We have that with Duran, the game is over when gets the ball in the 9th.

The reason Duran is in the bullpen to begin with is because he couldn't stay healthy as a starter. I have no doubt that if the Twins believed that Duran could pitch 150+ innings a year he would be in the rotation, unfortunately that just isn't the case.

I would like to see Duran in a more conventional closer role.

I do believe that we will see Duran in a conventional closer role for years to come and nothing else and that's just fine with me!!

I don't know much about his health concerns a starter, but my worry as a totally ignorant layman is that under a starter's workload, he'd blow out his elbow and never be the same again. I'm gonna trust the Twins' coaching staff over my own gut as to how many golden eggs we can get without killing the goose.

4 hours ago, twins_89 said:

The reason Duran is in the bullpen to begin with is because he couldn't stay healthy as a starter. I have no doubt that if the Twins believed that Duran could pitch 150+ innings a year he would be in the rotation, unfortunately that just isn't the case.

My understanding was it was an experiment to limit innings as he ramped back up from injury. His injury had to do with throwing the ball, he just happened to be starting at the time. He wants to start, and has expressed that politely several times. Not giving him the opportunity to do so will drastically limit his career earning potential, and he knows that. I hope he gets that chance this year or next. Good thing Santana got the opportunity when he started in the pen to limit innings. What the FO has believed in regards to pitchers hasn’t worked out so great.  

6 hours ago, h2oface said:

My understanding was it was an experiment to limit innings as he ramped back up from injury. His injury had to do with throwing the ball, he just happened to be starting at the time. He wants to start, and has expressed that politely several times. Not giving him the opportunity to do so will drastically limit his career earning potential, and he knows that. I hope he gets that chance this year or next. Good thing Santana got the opportunity when he started in the pen to limit innings. What the FO has believed in regards to pitchers hasn’t worked out so great.  

Not at all concerned about any injury history.  Yeah, he got derailed a bit in 2021 but threw 216 total innings in 2018 & 2019.  Didn't pitch in the Covid year in 2020 which could have contributed to missing time in 2021.  Bounced back nicely in 2022.  Your Santana comp is spot on.  Only 35 % of Santana's appearances in his first 4 years here were starts but by 2002 & 2003 you could already tell that even in less than half time starting duty he was our most productive starter.  The ace we seek and need is probably right under our noses and we're too damn busy cutting off our noses to spite our faces to see.

Confidence and mental state are crucial to all aspects of baseball, but especially to pitching. To a certain degree, to be a true stud on the mound, you have to have the mindset that you are the biggest and baddest motherf----- in the land. No one can beat you. That mindset comes from confidence, which comes from success. 

This statement right here is all the reason I need to at least hope the team gives him a shot at being a starter, either this year or next. Many great starters began their careers as relievers - Pedro Martinez, Adam Wainwright, Corbin Burnes, Chris Sale, and Curt Schilling among them. I also know that these are the exception to the rule, but what if.....

The Johan comps are fair but the argument could be made his early career led to his arm issues and being out of the league at 33-34 years old. That's way to young for a guy that threw and relied on a change up like that. The risk on the volume and intensity of throwing 100+ mph in one outing is also way higher. Even with all the new arm care programs we just don't see power arms last as starters besides your outliers like Verlander and Scherzer.

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

Confidence and mental state are crucial to all aspects of baseball, but especially to pitching. To a certain degree, to be a true stud on the mound, you have to have the mindset that you are the biggest and baddest motherf----- in the land. No one can beat you. That mindset comes from confidence, which comes from success. 

This statement right here is all the reason I need to at least hope the team gives him a shot at being a starter, either this year or next. Many great starters began their careers as relievers - Pedro Martinez, Adam Wainwright, Corbin Burnes, Chris Sale, and Curt Schilling among them. I also know that these are the exception to the rule, but what if.....

 

What if…. 
That’ll keep you up at night. As hard as it may be to do, I think we thank our lucky stars we have a closer as lights out as duran and move on with our lives.

Elite starters are more valuable than elite relievers. Duran deserves a chance to start to see what he can do. If he becomes a true # 1 or # 2 starter both he and the Twins reap the considerable rewards.

The injury risk seems overblown unless there is something we don't know. 

If I remember correctly, Duran gained quite a bit on his avg velocity after moving to the pen. This tells me his lights out stuff becomes slightly less lights out the more innings he's expected to pitch. That mixed with injury history indicates you'd maybe get more innings, but they'd be of lower quality and in lower leverage situations. And maybe he just gets hurt or wears out and you don't get all the extra innings.

The risk of injury and potential extra innings wouldn't be worth it IMO.

65-80 high leverage innings with arguably the best stuff in the league in the highest leverage spots is preferable to 120-150 innings as a starter.

When he comes in, you can be almost certain the game is over if he's closing it out, or make the opponents' best batters look over-matched when he's there to hold for 2 high leverage innings. It's a joy to watch.

As a starter, he's almost certain not to throw many if any complete games, and we saw what even a couple bad bullpen arms can do to a teams chance of winning (Pagan, or even Colome from early '21).

If Duran starts, who do we rely on to close it out once he's pulled?

Like it or not, he's almost certain to stay in the pen, but I for one, think it's the best choice and the most fun to watch.

On 1/25/2023 at 11:26 PM, dxpavelka said:

 we're too damn busy cutting off our noses to spite our faces to see.

I think that metaphor makes more sense when imagining trying to move Duran back to the rotation.

The bullpen would just lose the game in the last 3 innings without Duran anchoring the pen

OR we would win the game because the pen didn't have to pitch 5 innings........

8 hours ago, AlGoreRythm said:

If I remember correctly, Duran gained quite a bit on his avg velocity after moving to the pen. This tells me his lights out stuff becomes slightly less lights out the more innings he's expected to pitch. That mixed with injury history indicates you'd maybe get more innings, but they'd be of lower quality and in lower leverage situations. And maybe he just gets hurt or wears out and you don't get all the extra innings.

The risk of injury and potential extra innings wouldn't be worth it IMO.

65-80 high leverage innings with arguably the best stuff in the league in the highest leverage spots is preferable to 120-150 innings as a starter.

When he comes in, you can be almost certain the game is over if he's closing it out, or make the opponents' best batters look over-matched when he's there to hold for 2 high leverage innings. It's a joy to watch.

As a starter, he's almost certain not to throw many if any complete games, and we saw what even a couple bad bullpen arms can do to a teams chance of winning (Pagan, or even Colome from early '21).

If Duran starts, who do we rely on to close it out once he's pulled?

Like it or not, he's almost certain to stay in the pen, but I for one, think it's the best choice and the most fun to watch.

yes

9 hours ago, GNess said:

Elite starters are more valuable than elite relievers. Duran deserves a chance to start to see what he can do. If he becomes a true # 1 or # 2 starter both he and the Twins reap the considerable rewards.

The injury risk seems overblown unless there is something we don't know. 

I am not overly concerned about injury, I am just terrified to mess with him in any way, shape or form. He is bananas in his current role. I worry if he gets moved and gets demolished that he won't return to form when moved back to the pen. No numbers or anything to back this up. Just a gut worry he'll get the yips

On 1/25/2023 at 11:26 PM, dxpavelka said:

Not at all concerned about any injury history.  Yeah, he got derailed a bit in 2021 but threw 216 total innings in 2018 & 2019.  Didn't pitch in the Covid year in 2020 which could have contributed to missing time in 2021.  Bounced back nicely in 2022.  Your Santana comp is spot on.  Only 35 % of Santana's appearances in his first 4 years here were starts but by 2002 & 2003 you could already tell that even in less than half time starting duty he was our most productive starter.  The ace we seek and need is probably right under our noses and we're too damn busy cutting off our noses to spite our faces to see.

Remember, Santana had much less stress on his arm given that he threw a large percentage of changes ups which made moving to the starting role easier for him than someone like Duran who puts stress on his arm/elbow throwing 100+ MPH pitches.  If it ain't broke, don't fix it.  Leave him in the pen.

First of all, are starters more likely to get injured than relievers? 

Yes. 2.4x more likely. BUT... no more likely to injure their elbows. 

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35040985/

My prediction is that Duran will need TJ or thoracic outlet release this season regardless of role because Twins.

Even if the injury risk of making Duran a starter isn't a factor, do we think he can go out and do his Duran thing for more than, say, five innings? "Ace" definitions range all over the place of course, but I've seen a lot of people on here define an ace as able to go deep into games. Do we have any indication that he can do that while throwing anything close to the obscene velocities that make him so good?

You won't get 7 max-effort innings out of the guy, start after start.  He won't be the same lights-out guy as we saw in the bullpen.  I agree that starters are more valuable, but you have to take into account what is achievable.

If Duran wants to start, it's a delicate matter for Rocco to manage, but that's why they pay him the big bucks. 

The FO can also contribute to the solution by offering Duran a long-term contract at mid-season, assuming he starts out strong, for top dollar for a closer, to ease the financial "regret" he may feel at not being a starter - his agent might advise "take the 6/$100M rather than try for something higher as a starter and risk coming out with a lot less than that."  He's still years away from arbitration, so adjust the contract offer from what I said; I think 6 years only buys out his arb years, which may be stupid on the team's part, so some creativity is needed.  But a happy player is important and may be worth bending some principles.

Remember, Duran will not be able to "unleash the nastiest repertoire [you] have ever seen" as a starting pitcher. Those 99-103's will have to be scaled back to 94-98's, etc... 

Don't bite the hand that's feeding you. 

“The whispers have already begun…”

?? What did I miss? Who (that matters) is whispering?

51 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

“The whispers have already begun…”

?? What did I miss? Who (that matters) is whispering?

I guess that depends on perspective. At the end of the day it’s a fun conversation piece.

15 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Remember, Santana had much less stress on his arm given that he threw a large percentage of changes ups which made moving to the starting role easier for him than someone like Duran who puts stress on his arm/elbow throwing 100+ MPH pitches.  If it ain't broke, don't fix it.  Leave him in the pen.

Doesn't seem like it was broke when he started 80 of 82 career games in the minors either.  What IS broke and will almost assuredly continue to be broke is the top spot on the rotation.  Can't wait to get to the post-season and be down 4 runs and God knows how many games by the time our best pitcher takes his jacket off.  21 straight here we come.

In this era where BP is almost more important than rotation I think Duran is a permanent key to the pen and the rotation is not only filled with vets but  has a number of young arms waiting in the wings.