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Should the Twins Go All In On Pablo Lopez?


Hunter McCall

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There has been plenty of off-season buzz surrounding Marlins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez. The 26-year-old hurler struck out 174 batters over 180 innings in 2022 while possessing a solid 3.71 FIP. Since the Marlins have a deep and young starting pitching rotation, Lopez is both expendable for them and very valuable on the trade market. Is Lopez a realistic trade target for the Minnesota Twins?


It has been no secret that the Minnesota Twins have been looking to add to their rotation that experienced various health issues in 2022. They made a hard push for left-handed free agent Carlos Rodon but ultimately fell short, leaving them looking for other reliable options. The Twins have been linked to the Marlins in trade talks for the last couple of months, and one would assume Pablo Lopez’s name has likely been thrown around. Lopez, however, will not come cheap. Due to his age, he will turn 27 in March, productivity, and the fact that he is under team control for two more full seasons, Lopez’s value is very high. But what will it cost?


If the Twins want a realistic shot at landing Lopez, they will have to throw some tangible assets on the table. It is rumored that the Marlins aren’t looking for prospects in return for Lopez but rather bats they can plug into the lineup to help them out immediately. With that said, a trade to bring Lopez to Minnesota would likely cost the Twins Luis Arraez and maybe even a little more. If the Twins were willing to eat Jorge Soler’s contract, they could perhaps convince the Marlins to complete a deal without Arraez’s involvement. However, for a mid-market team, the Twins will probably be unwilling to add the $12M per-year contract to the payroll for a player that won’t offer much productivity.


This leaves the Twins with only one really realistic option, which would be to move Arraez, whose value is higher than it has ever been and may be as high as it will ever get. Does it make sense to trade him while his value is high? Arraez is a clear fan favorite and among the best pure hitters on the planet, but he also carries his share of flaws. Arraez has had a litany of knee issues in the past, he’s an awful defender anywhere besides first base, and provides next to no power at the plate, which is an approach that doesn’t seem to fit what the Twins have been trying to do in recent years. Maybe it’s time to strike while the iron is hot, put the chips in the middle of the table, and pull off a trade for a durable frontline starter.

 

What are your thoughts? Are you willing to pay this price for a frontline starter? Let me know, and as always, Go, Twins!

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Trade arraez. Add in one or two minor leaguers. Not Martin , not lewis,  not lee.twins could then swing another deal or two. With Kepler maybe another pitcher like winder or Richardson, and pagain. Bring back Fulmer. And with the other guys get someone good like another starter or bullpen guy. Or another good bat.

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Last year Soler had an OPS+ of 95. He is not that bad of hitter. The contract is 15 mil plus player option for 9 the following year. Taking Soler would be like instead of giving up a lottery ticket relief pitcher.  I am sure the crack hitting gurus on the Twins could get him 10 or more on an OPS+. Unfortunately I think the Twins would have to give up Miranda, not Arraez

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We got Farmer & Vasquez which were  adequate moves. Gallo was a terrible move. They have to get Guillorme but he'll be cheap. They need to do a big move, Lopez or Rogers could do it. I'd do it under this FO pitching philosophy. Winning is everything, lets do it.  Go Twins

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Luis Arraez is a great hitter. I’d never give up a hitter like Arraez. Even the great Ichiro Suzuki admires Arraez as his favorite player to watch. There’s good reason for that. Especially when you see comparable stats to Tony Gwynn from his years in the minors to his breakout season winning the batting title last year in one of the toughest years to hit. Arraez is an undervalued star that can win several more batting titles. I’d keep Arraez and build the team around him more than I ever would Buxton. 

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10 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Go for Edward Cabrera instead  - maybe Larnach plus a minor league player like Miller.

Teams don't trade away young pitchers under team control that cheap.

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I think it is a mistake to trade for pitchers with 2 years or less of control.  If the team wants rotation stability they have 3 options:  trade for a pitcher with 3 or more years of control (like Ryan for example), sign a free agent to an extended contract, or develop your own.  The cost in player/prospect capital when you have to keep trading for pitchers with only two years of control is simply too high for too short of a return.  After this season, absent extensions, Maeda, Gray and Mahle are all gone.  Unless our young guys step up, we will be a couple pitchers short even with Lopez.  Unless this FO changes its free agency policy, we are always going to be pitching poor.

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This has been said many times so forgive me for saying it again:  what the Twins lack is a solid #1/#2 to pair up with Ryan for several years.  As things stand for 2023 the Twins rotation has a number of #2/3/4s in their rotation, but only for 2023.  Lopez is not an ace-in-waiting, which is why Miami is willing to trade him.

If you are going to give up solid assets like Arraez, Kepler, Larnach, Kirillof, etc., go for broke or just add pitching depth like Wacha, Cueto, etc. to supplement a fairly solid, but injury-prone staff.  If you think this is a make or break year for the FO(which it should be) they need to think big.  Unfortunately, they failed to add much to a depleted lineup that lost 2 of their 3 top run producers.  Picking up a Gallo is a pure crap shoot and there aren't any other impact bats readily available. 

So the only way to move the needle now is to overpay for a young, contollable pitcher like Gallen, May, Gausman, who can slot in for several years as a stopper.  The Twins now have excess at corner OF, mid infield, and yes, even catcher.  Adding in one or two of our top 10 prospects will also be necessary, but that's whats needed to give meaning to the word "contender".

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This makes good common sense . How many games is Arraez going to win or contribute to the winning run in a game? How many games would Lopez win and how runs would save from scoring so the Twins have a chance to winn.
How much money have Twins lost from signing over-the-hill players and players with poor skills.  

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Pablo Lopez is great and I love him, but going all-in on him is something I am hesitant on. He would absolutely upgrade the rotation, but it all depends on what they give up. 

I'm all for trying something different or outside the box but I don't think selling the farm for him is the correct move either. 

 

I could be swayed either way honestly. 

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54 minutes ago, CoryMoen said:

Pablo Lopez is great and I love him, but going all-in on him is something I am hesitant on. He would absolutely upgrade the rotation, but it all depends on what they give up. 

I'm all for trying something different or outside the box but I don't think selling the farm for him is the correct move either. 

 

I could be swayed either way honestly. 

Welcome to TD!

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MLBTradeRumors has a post saying that Miami is listening on Lopez, Rogers, Luzardo, and Cabrera. They want bats and years of control. This is an opportunity for the Twins to pick up a guy (Cabrera) with massive upside. albeit a gamble. 

What is needed to complete this for the Marlins? Larnach or Kirilloff and Kepler for Cabrera. Add Ober and Martin going south with Miami sending  Luzardo north? Hard to know what will work but there should be a match for at least Cabrera.

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11 hours ago, joefish said:

Let Duran start. Our ACE in the making. Cheap too. 

Personally, I think moving Duran back to a starter would be a big mistake. Not only would it dramatically deplete the bullpen, but Duran really struggled with both injuries and performance when he was a starter in the minors. I think he found his all-start role, and should continue to grow in it!

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