This offseason has been frustrating. A couple of nice marginal signings in Joey Gallo and Christian Vásquez, both of which I’m kind of a fan of. But the Twins talked for months about their desire to bring back Carlos Correa and made him a sizeable, yet somewhat uncompetitive offer to return, and certainly were never going to get to the final $315 million number he signed for. They should’ve done just about everything they could to retain his talent and leadership, though because there are a lot of good things too look forward to with this team. They have very solid homegrown depth throughout the lineup and  a fairly good group of 8 pitchers, who will give them a chance to win just about every day, but they lack the star power needed to really contend for anything more than an AL Central title.

Depth on Offense

On the offensive side of the ball, the Twins have very solid starting level players at every position, besides shortstop in their opening day lineup. In fact, according to Fangraphs ZiPS, by Dan Szymborski, the Twins are projected above average at every position, besides left field.  

The starters are good, but the reason I’m so optimistic about the roster is that in addition to those starters, the Twins bench players- which will include some most of Nick Gordon, Matt Wallner, Ryan Jeffers, and Gilberto Celestino all have talent to be tapped into. Gordon, coming off of a breakout season, will be sure to see plenty of game time; Wallner had a great season in the minors and first taste of the big leagues; Jeffers crushes lefties; and Celestino is still young and at times in both the majors and minors showed power that the Twins might be able to tap into. If they had signed Correa, Kyle Farmer would just be a platoon bat in this mix off the bench- another good role player to have. However, one of Matt Wallner and Gilberto Celestino, will start in AAA, with Kyle Garlick likely to be the Opening Day RHH corner outfield platoon bat. The Twins also have a strong group of prospects beyond Wallner and Celestino who will be able to make an impact in 2023- Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, and Austin Martin.

That organizational depth offensively is really exciting. It should enable them to better handle injury problems, especially if Nick Paparesta can help the team have just normal injury luck. The foundation is good enough to make one think that it was time to add (or keep) a superstar. They have a lot of really good players, but beyond the oft-injured Byron Buxton, they have no superstars. There are guys who could be in 2023, but no one is a bonified superstar beyond Buxton. This depth of “really good” definitely could help the Twins be a solidly above average offense. But if you add in Carlos Correa (replacing Kyle Farmer at short, pushing him to a platoon utility role), with better health and some steps up, the offense would’ve had a chance to be once again a premier offense in the league, like we all enjoyed in 2019.

Starting Pitching Depth/Strong Bullpen

The Twins also have strong depth in the rotation, and again lack that star power. However you want to label each guy, the first 5 starting pitchers is a group of 2s and 3s. If they start with a 6-man rotation, that would arguably also apply to Winder, who seems likeliest to win that 6^th starter job, barring the addition of say, Johnny Cueto. They also have Varland and Woods Richardson ready to pitch when they are needed, which I’m sure won’t take long. They’ll also hope that Jordan Balazovic and Chris Paddack are ready to step in later in the season, although that seems unlikely for both guys. Having 8 guys that fall between “pretty good” and “fine” is a really good place to be, when one third of their games were started by Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy in 2022. The Twins had a .370 winning percentage in those games. In 2023, those starts should made by Ober, Winder, Varland, and Woods Richardson, which will give the Twins a chance in so many more games, raising the floor considerably. Just as with the offense, the starting staff is deep with good talent waiting in the wings, but lacks that high end starter.

You finally have star power in the back of the bullpen. Jhoan Durán is one of the elite arms in all of baseball. Caleb Theilbar is an outstanding lefty reliever and Griffin Jax is a stud and seems to be getting better and trying to throw harder. Jorge López will hopefully return to closer to his 2022 Baltimore form, making for a really strong middle and backend of the bullpen, which will likely be added to in free agency. Jorge Alcalá is returning and Jovani Moran is poised to step up. The maybe can get more out of Trevor Megill or get breakouts from Cole Sands and Ronny Henriquez too. So, the bullpen has a great chance to be a strength and has that same depth as the rotation and offense do.

Good Roster Devoid of a Second Superstar

Overall, I think the Twins have a really good roster. It has really good players in almost every position, many of them under control for multiple years, although much less so in the rotation. The roster, as constructed, should have a chance to contend with Cleveland (projections system have the Twins just behind them and tied with Chicago). But the Twins could have been at least co-division favorites had they capitalized on the great depth they’ve built and the books they’ve worked hard to keep clean by signing Carlos Correa, which in the end they never tried hard enough to do. Maybe they still can acquire that elite talent via trade before the season or at the deadline. This front office is certainly unpredictable. If they do acquire that elite talent and have “normal luck”, we could see a fun season where people flood to Target Field, buy the new jerseys, and maybe even celebrate that elusive postseason victory.