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Unpopular Idea to Fix the Twins


Seamus Kelly

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Us under 30-year-olds want one thing from Minnesota sports. A championship. We want the stories handed down by our parents of how crazy the State was in 87 and 91. We want I94 closed. We want to be nationally relevant. Much has been made of the 0-18 playoff record and many hot takes and debates have raged over social media. It seems like anything the Twins do at this point will be met with unnecessary cruel criticism and unwarranted unwavering support. So here is my useless take to add to the mix, and I am afraid it is not going to be popular among the Twins Haters and Twins Supporters. But maybe a small minority will support me.

Twins need to reset and rebuild.

No more chasing the offseason whales of Donaldson and Correa, no more trading prospects for mediocre talent that is oft injured and fails to make any sort of impact. We should start trading aging players no matter how beloved and rebuild our prospect pool. We need to analyze what has gone wrong in the scouting, drafting, and developing of pitching prospects and change our approach there. If the Twins and Pohlads really want to have an impact playoff run, then they need to strip it down for the next 2-3 years and then rebuild it back up.

Many of you will argue otherwise. But I ask a simple question. Do they have a competitive roster right now? The obvious answer is no. So as an organization you have 3 choices:

  1. Add players to it through Free Agency or Trade to make a playoff run.
  2. Maintain course and hope you have the most luck any baseball team has ever had.
  3. Tear it down and rebuild.

Option 1. Adding would be a gigantic mistake. You already missed out on impact free agents. Throwing money and more importantly years at non-impact free agents is never a good idea for any market, much less a mid-market team. Trading prospects to add talent is also not wise. You already have a depleted farm system due to poor drafting and trades for non-impact players. What available trade is there to make that could lift this roster to make an impact trade? The answer of course is no. You would need 4-5 trades to do so, and you do not have the prospects to do that.

Option 2. Staying on the course seems like a non-option. I get it, the division is bad, maybe we can luck our ways into the playoffs and then who knows. But given the vitriol on Twitter and other social media sites this also seems like a non-option. This front office/coaching staff is most likely fired if they have another 70–80-win season and fail to make the playoffs. Even if they do the roster is incomparable to other playoff teams and increasing 0-18 to 0-20 is only going to enrage an already volatile fanbase.

Option 3. Tear it down. This is the only logical course of action. It will be painful. Trade Arraez, Trade Buxton, Trade Kepler, Trade Polanco, Trade Mahle, Trade Gray, even Trade Kiriloff who is oft injured. Trading any player with value but has a huge flaw that limits them from being an impact playoff performer. Get prospects in return, use good fortune in the draft to start rebuilding this thing. Start drafting and developing impact pitching.

 

It may not work in the end; it may turn out to be another period like 2011-2016. But it is the only course this organization can take if they want to win a championship. This front office/coaching staff won’t do it because they want to save their jobs. But if the ownership has a real long-term vision this would be the only clear path of action.

 

 

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i think this is largely what it has come to, but is almost certainly not going to happen with ownership and FO as they are. both are unwilling to admit they are and have been wrong in the short term, so will not do what is necessary to fix it long term

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I agree. Tear it down. Trade away Kepler, Mahle, Gray, Polanco, Arrez, Kenta, and get young controllable talent back.  Keep Buxton as the team will be good again before his contract expires.

Next off-season sign some good free agents and see what happens.

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I'm afraid that this is the only course of action. The Twins would be more interesting with a roster that costs below $100 million because they would be forced to develop and play athletes. They could have been better by being less cautious and pushing the payroll to $165 million. In between, they are stuck signing mediocre players and threatening more of the same of the last two years. It would take two or three trades now to turn the team. I'm not sure that is possible and while it doesn't seem correct, other teams may see the Twins as vulnerable. That makes trades difficult. I guess we shall see what happens next but one could have never seen such a poor start to the offseason.

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I'm not sure this is the front office to depend on rebuilding a team. There are so many times lately where I've wondered what they were thinking in their roster management. Gallo is just the latest question. They seem to think the way to winning is hitting solo HR's. They go after these all or nothing guys, yet on the pitching side, they don't seem concerned about guys that have higher than normal HR against rates. I just don't get it.

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13 hours ago, Karbo said:

They seem to think the way to winning is hitting solo HR's. They go after these all or nothing guys, yet on the pitching side, they don't seem concerned about guys that have higher than normal HR against rates.

You think so?  I think they had Arraez on the roster because he's a great contact hitter who has never shown an ounce of power and never impressed anyone with his glovework. I think they loaded up their draft classes and trades on middle infield guys who do not hit many HR but can go to other positions and hit doubles. I think they dumped everyone from that 2019 team who hit more than 20 HR except Polanco and Kepler, and Kepler might be on his way out. Keep up, I think the strategy changed while you weren't paying attention.

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Option 2.5: keep swapping out parts as the opportunities arise. The spiraling market said that we weren't getting a SS for a 13 year deal, so we get a filler there and go with the kids when Lewis gets healthy.  You've got a young 3b, a delayed start to the young SS, old man Polanco at 2b is only 29 next year, Arraez at 1b will be 26 and you have good middle infielders coming up behind them that aren't ready yet. You just signed a solid glove at C to cover the gap in your farm and you're up to your fetlocks in good youngsters looking for OF time. We have a ton of decent starting pitchers that didn't get a chance to show their stuff last year. But Maeda and Grey have been good in the past, Mahle and Ryan are still improving, Mahle and Ober and Paddack have been good when healthy, Varland and Woods Richardson and Winder poked their noses up for a moment last year and there are more behind them. The bullpen has a number of good to excellent pieces to build around and a lot of starters that may need new roles this year.

Honestly what's a rebuild supposed to look like? The thing to do here is play the kids you have and see how they mature, pitch the guys you have and see if they can stay healthy, and pick up some parts when the opportunity arises. 

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8 hours ago, Cris E said:

You think so?  I think they had Arraez on the roster because he's a great contact hitter who has never shown an ounce of power and never impressed anyone with his glovework. I think they loaded up their draft classes and trades on middle infield guys who do not hit many HR but can go to other positions and hit doubles. I think they dumped everyone from that 2019 team who hit more than 20 HR except Polanco and Kepler, and Kepler might be on his way out. Keep up, I think the strategy changed while you weren't paying attention.

Perhaps, but the signing of Gallo? 

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We need to analyze what has gone wrong in the scouting, drafting, and developing of pitching prospects and change our approach there. If the Twins and Pohlads really want to have an impact playoff run, then they need to strip it down for the next 2-3 years and then rebuild it back up."

I agree with you here where we need  to improve our player evaluation which effects our scouting, drafting, rule 5, FA selection & trading. Needs evaluation, not drafting big bats/ weak glove where DH is their best position and hoard them. We need to draft athletic players that can stick at CF, SS & catcher & hit enough to hit average for their position. And when we have a glut in corner OF lefty bats we don't sign a corner OF lefty bat restoration project.

The pipeline isn't gushing yet and it seems some players have problems hitting at the MLB level so we need to reevaluate our development & coaching programs, And players that don't know how to do the basics like bunting or stealing or advancing a base. I haven't liked how they manage their pitching structure and not giving the proper rest with treatment to their players.

We've had a pretty decent core where we could have gone on a pretty fantastic roll but due to the previous reasons listed above, they have short circuit all our potential. Ideally is to have some prospects to ease into the needed areas & eventually others to take over core players positions when they move on. There we have steady influx of veterans to rookie balance.

I'm not in favor of an immediate tear down & depending on prospects who aren't ready to fill those positions. We experienced that in the OF in '21 & it was disastrous. Now apply that to the OF, INF & rotation, it'd be a good way to destroy this franchise. 

If it helps the team I'm all in favor of trading anyone. We can't trade Buxton. Kepler & Polanco's trade value are on their low side (which it wouldn't be prudent to trade them now unless the trade reflect their true value) and we have no one to sub Polanco right now. We shouldn't be trading Gray or Maeda because They are on their last year and not worth very much combined, Mahle is worth more than what he is and we don't have anyone who comes close to match their performance.

 Jeffers trade value has been steadily dropping we should trade him before he's worthless. Arraez trade value has been falling but recently he has hit a unsustainable high  & he's replaceable so he's a good trade candidate. We shouldn't be trading any of those players for a bunch of low lottery tickets, they should be for fulfilling a need. We have a great need for a future catcher, Endy Rodriguez is a great trade target.

Losing is terrible for morale especially year after year. Prerequisite for any transformation of roster is dealing with management problems 1st. Otherwise we'd be in rebuilding mode perennially.

 

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On 12/17/2022 at 10:51 PM, Cris E said:

You think so?  I think they had Arraez on the roster because he's a great contact hitter who has never shown an ounce of power and never impressed anyone with his glovework. I think they loaded up their draft classes and trades on middle infield guys who do not hit many HR but can go to other positions and hit doubles. I think they dumped everyone from that 2019 team who hit more than 20 HR except Polanco and Kepler, and Kepler might be on his way out. Keep up, I think the strategy changed while you weren't paying attention.

Cruz was free agent - Sano imploded - ball got unjuiced - Kepler had no power & Polanco has been hurt along with Buxton. Garver went in tank, got traded, been hurt. Not sure how intentional the changes have been? Stuff just happened.

Can’t blow up a team that was in first place in early August within a still fairly weak Division.

Fix the pitching!! Add depth!! Quit counting on 3-4 arms at AA & AAA!

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Great thoughts. You make a really good point that highlights an issue across sports- there is often a lack of desire to rebuild because the Front Office/ management wants to keep their jobs. They don't really have an interest in the team's *future*, only the present. Thus, a lot of teams including the Twins remain in a middle ground of not going "all in" but not going in full rebuild and start over mode. Like you said, with how bad the division is, they could feasibly sneak into the playoffs, but we can't expect a deep run from this team. We don't even have a full starting rotation at this point with almost al FAs off the board. 

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To fully sell out before the start of the season would be ridiculous. The AL central is wide open as all three teams have not taken massive steps forward. If the season becomes disappointing maybe then you consider trading Mahle or Gray but Kirilloff and Buxton are not being trading any time soon. 

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