Most of those players will likely remain with the team. The people most at risk of losing their 40 man spot:

Simmons - obviously 

Cave - He’s had a tough go of things in 2020 and 2021. It’s time to find someone better, or use his spot for another prospect. 

Astudillo - His “positional flexibility” has been reduced to corner IF/OF spots. Rarely as a catcher anymore. I think Gordon’s performance in September gives him the edge as utility guy. 

Maggi - Just an honorary nomination this year for being a long time minor leaguer. He shouldn’t be considered a short or long term player on the 40 man. 

People that I wouldn’t be surprised if they were jettisoned from the roster or kept are Garlick, Refsnyder, and Rooker. They’re decent depth pieces. 

Yeah ... it's really hard to know where the thinking is. Garlick and Rooker both have options, so I'd say Refsnyder is the odd man out of those three. I'm not sure who provides the most value, maybe none of them, but I can't see them keeping all of them. Simmons is an obvious gone, but ... and I hope not ... but they could re-sign him? But if they do, (but oh man, I hope they don't) likely won't happen immediately, so they can use his roster spot up front and make room again for him later.

They will have to find roster spots for Kirilloff and Garlick (if they keep him) at the end of the season. That is accomplished with Maggi and Simmons gone. I think they keep people on until they have to remove them.

Pitchers will be an interesting discussion. I split this up between position players and pitchers because I just thought it would be too long a list to go through at once, but maybe I should add them in and make this one discussion? And then you start thinking about the rule 5 adds ... so many related parts.

I'd suspect Refsnyder has less to do with Garlick and Rooker and more to do with Gordon and Cave as I don't believe the Twins would be willing to put the sluggers into center field to back up Buxton or Celestino if the Twins trade Buxton.

38 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Yeah ... it's really hard to know where the thinking is. Garlick and Rooker both have options, so I'd say Refsnyder is the odd man out of those three. I'm not sure who provides the most value, maybe none of them, but I can't see them keeping all of them. Simmons is an obvious gone, but ... and I hope not ... but they could re-sign him? But if they do, (but oh man, I hope they don't) likely won't happen immediately, so they can use his roster spot up front and make room again for him later.

They will have to find roster spots for Kirilloff and Garlick (if they keep him) at the end of the season. That is accomplished with Maggi and Simmons gone. I think they keep people on until they have to remove them.

Pitchers will be an interesting discussion. I split this up between position players and pitchers because I just thought it would be too long a list to go through at once, but maybe I should add them in and make this one discussion? And then you start thinking about the rule 5 adds ... so many related parts.

 

It will definitely be interesting how they split the pitchers and position players on the 40 man. As I count, there’s potentially 15-17 spots taken up already. How many are left? Do we need to reserve 20-23 spots for pitchers? 

From the position player side of things, I see the Twins keeping:

1. Jeffers
2. Sano
3. Polanco
4. Donaldson
5. Larnarch
6. Buxton
7. Kepler
8. Killeroff
9. Arraez
10. Garver
11. Miranda
12. Gordon
13. Rooker
14. Garlik
15. Rortvedt
16. Celestino
17. Lewis
18. maybe Astudillo

Full disclosure:  Just edited this list to remove double add of Larnach and add Miranda.  I do think this would be better with pitchers instead of just hitters so we know the number of slots to use.  I would stop at either 35 or 36 and leave room for offseason signings.

20 minutes ago, Brandon said:

From the position player side of things, I see the Twins keeping:

1. Jeffers
2. Sano
3. Polanco
4. Donaldson
5. Larnarch
6. Buxton
7. Kepler
8. Larnach
9. Arraez
10. Garver
11. Killeroff
12. Gordon
13. Rooker
14. Garlik
15. Rortvedt
16. Celestino
17. Lewis
18. maybe Astudillo

 

Lewis isn't on the 40-man yet, but he will need to be added.

38 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

It will definitely be interesting how they split the pitchers and position players on the 40 man. As I count, there’s potentially 15-17 spots taken up already. How many are left? Do we need to reserve 20-23 spots for pitchers? 

I don't even know ... do teams keep to a certain split? 

8 hours ago, Brandon said:

From the position player side of things, I see the Twins keeping:

1. Jeffers
2. Sano
3. Polanco
4. Donaldson
5. Larnarch
6. Buxton
7. Kepler
8. Larnach
9. Arraez
10. Garver
11. Killeroff
12. Gordon
13. Rooker
14. Garlik
15. Rortvedt
16. Celestino
17. Lewis
18. maybe Astudillo

 

Larnach is listed twice in the list above. If we are adding Lewis, another certain add is Miranda, correct? I think Garlick is let go and the Twins will shop Rooker pretty hard. I could see the scenario for both Astudillo and Garlick where they are taken off the 40-man, but offered minor league deals with spring training invites. 

32 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Larnach is listed twice in the list above. If we are adding Lewis, another certain add is Miranda, correct? I think Garlick is let go and the Twins will shop Rooker pretty hard. I could see the scenario for both Astudillo and Garlick where they are taken off the 40-man, but offered minor league deals with spring training invites. 

What about Refsnyder?

Prospect additions will be yet another discussion and component of all of this. Part of my thinking was ... you can't just jettison players. it's more complicated than that. You really have to decide who to keep and who is expendable. And, as I said (I think I said), we won't see removals come all at once and/or immediately. They will remove people when they absolutely have to. Garlick being on the 60-day IL ... that decision will come at the end of the season. They will have to either make room for him or let him go. I could see with both Garlick and Refsnyder being offered minor league deals.

In the end ... this exercise show me just how little I know and just how much I should never be in charge of such decisions  

Given how this season has gone and the way the roster is built, I wouldn't hesitate to clean house in the outfield. I'd drop Garlick, Refsnyder, Cave, Astudillo, and Rooker. I'd keep Gordon because I think he has real potential as a 10/11 man and he's actually kind of key to my outfield plans...

If Gordon is a legit CF backup, maybe I keep a right-handed bat like Refsnyder or Rooker (I lean toward Refsnyder due to the glove but Rooker's bat is far more potent). If Gordon is not a legit backup CF, I ditch all the corner guys and go sign a competent defensive backup CF for a million bucks.

Basically, it's time to move on from no-position corner guys taking up well over half the team's positional roster space. This team needs more balance than it has had in the past and that means sacrificing a little offense for defensive competency on the bench.

23 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

What about Refsnyder?

Prospect additions will be yet another discussion and component of all of this. Part of my thinking was ... you can't just jettison players. it's more complicated than that. You really have to decide who to keep and who is expendable. And, as I said (I think I said), we won't see removals come all at once and/or immediately. They will remove people when they absolutely have to. Garlick being on the 60-day IL ... that decision will come at the end of the season. They will have to either make room for him or let him go. I could see with both Garlick and Refsnyder being offered minor league deals.

In the end ... this exercise show me just how little I know and just how much I should never be in charge of such decisions  

I think Refsnyder is a certain drop. He has no minor league options,  did not even hit at replacement level, he's no longer considered an infield option and he's 30. Yes, he hit for a couple weeks, but that appears to be an aberration. If the team can sign him to a minor league contract, he could try his luck in St. Paul again and see if the injuries pile up as they did this year. 

I haven't mentioned Cave either. He's a capable outfielder, but his hit tool seems broken. To be a backup outfielder who would be penciled in for occasional starts on a corner, you have to be somewhat of a threat with the bat and Cave has hit worse than a backup catcher. 

1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

...In the end ... this exercise show me just how little I know and just how much I should never be in charge of such decisions  

There are just a lot of moving pieces. These exercises are tough for anybody  

I find it impossible to discuss the full list of drops without knowing the full list of "need to protect from the Rule V" You have the obvious drops and you have the fringe. Well, if you have to add x number of players, you need to drop enough to make room. This is the difference maker for the Garlicks, Astudillos, Gordon's of the world.

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Larnach is listed twice in the list above. If we are adding Lewis, another certain add is Miranda, correct? I think Garlick is let go and the Twins will shop Rooker pretty hard. I could see the scenario for both Astudillo and Garlick where they are taken off the 40-man, but offered minor league deals with spring training invites. 

correct.  I thought i did add Miranda too it.  How I added Larnach twice is beyond me.

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Given how this season has gone and the way the roster is built, I wouldn't hesitate to clean house in the outfield. I'd drop Garlick, Refsnyder, Cave, Astudillo, and Rooker. I'd keep Gordon because I think he has real potential as a 10/11 man and he's actually kind of key to my outfield plans...

If Gordon is a legit CF backup, maybe I keep a right-handed bat like Refsnyder or Rooker (I lean toward Refsnyder due to the glove but Rooker's bat is far more potent). If Gordon is not a legit backup CF, I ditch all the corner guys and go sign a competent defensive backup CF for a million bucks.

Basically, it's time to move on from no-position corner guys taking up well over half the team's positional roster space. This team needs more balance than it has had in the past and that means sacrificing a little offense for defensive competency on the bench.

Rooker has options.  You keep him for depth in AAA in case of injury.  He can be a 1B, DH, RF

I just listened to the Rand podcast, and the bit had Phil Miller on as a guest. Both thought that 2022 was a throw away year, which I have to agree. I cannot see the Twins with a winning record. Also, both suggested that Polanco is moved back to SS, and use as a bridge to Lewis. That would allow Arraez to move to 2B, and allow Gordon to be utility. "Gleeman and the Geek" really do not like Nick. Any thoughts?

Obviously, pitching is the main concern for next year. I have to believe that in the Twins' front office, most talks revolve around picking up pitching. Would you take a chance on Bundy, and Gausman? And what would they cost? Bring back Pineda, and his 120 innings per year may economically be the right choice. The Minor leaguers may be another year away. Ober and Ryan should be penciled in.

23 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Rooker has options.  You keep him for depth in AAA in case of injury.  He can be a 1B, DH, RF

I know he has options, I'm saying I don't reserve a 40-man spot for him.

If he can sneak through waivers, sure, keep him... but I'm not dedicating a spot for him at this point.

11 minutes ago, dennistwinsfever2 said:

I just listened to the Rand podcast, and the bit had Phil Miller on as a guest. Both thought that 2022 was a throw away year, which I have to agree. I cannot see the Twins with a winning record. Also, both suggested that Polanco is moved back to SS, and use as a bridge to Lewis. That would allow Arraez to move to 2B, and allow Gordon to be utility. "Gleeman and the Geek" really do not like Nick. Any thoughts?

I see almost a zero percent chance of the Twins risking Polanco's health and offensive production by moving him back to short, a position he was bad at in 2019 before injuries and age set in.

Gleeman & the Geek don't dislike Gordon, not at all. They simply don't have faith in him as a starting shortstop (or probably even a starter anywhere) and for good reason. He hasn't shown either the long-term hitting proficiency to be a starter or the ability to play a competent shortstop in Major League Baseball. Scouting reports have been skeptical of his ability to stick at short since draft day and they haven't improved since then. For right or wrong, it's quite apparent this front office does not view Nick Gordon as a starting shortstop.

34 minutes ago, goulik said:

I find it impossible to discuss the full list of drops without knowing the full list of "need to protect from the Rule V" You have the obvious drops and you have the fringe. Well, if you have to add x number of players, you need to drop enough to make room. This is the difference maker for the Garlicks, Astudillos, Gordon's of the world.

Here’s a list of rule 5 adds and fringe adds courtesy of @Danchat

As far as position players go, Miranda and Lewis are easy adds. 

I think there’s 0% chance Refsnyder is on the 40 man at the start of next year. I think/hope Rooker is traded, which allows us to keep Cave, and Garlick. Maybe Cave is removed and offered a MiLB contract. Garlick is a competent CF backup for a few games, and if Buck is out for an extended period of time Celistino looked legit at AAA. As for Astudillo, I could see it going either way. If it’s a retool year, I think he stays but if they try to compete unfortunately I think he goes. I also think there’s a good chance Kepler gets traded, which would allow another outfielder to stay.

11 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I see almost a zero percent chance of the Twins risking Polanco's health and offensive production by moving him back to short, a position he was bad at in 2019 before injuries and age set in.

Gleeman & the Geek don't dislike Gordon, not at all. They simply don't have faith in him as a starting shortstop (or probably even a starter anywhere) and for good reason. He hasn't shown either the long-term hitting proficiency to be a starter or the ability to play a competent shortstop in Major League Baseball. Scouting reports have been skeptical of his ability to stick at short since draft day and they haven't improved since then. For right or wrong, it's quite apparent this front office does not view Nick Gordon as a starting shortstop.

I see Gordon as a .270 / .310 / .380 type of hitter.  I don't think he could pay SS more then as a utility player and even then he is stretched.  He seems solid in the OF to me as a back up.  He has speed.  He can also play in the IF.  He is an ideal back up player in my book.  He is a AAAA player but not like the traditional AAAA player and that makes him a back up.  He is like 85-90% across the board with major league speed.  He can also regress quickly from his current talent level and that will always be worrisome.  He doesn't have much of a ceiling beyond this.  

Gordon had a nice run.  but so did refsnyder.  Lets see if Gordon can do that again next year.  He has definitely earned the chance to show he is a good back up player.  

Just now, Brandon said:

I see Gordon as a .270 / .310 / .380 type of hitter.  I don't think he could pay SS more then as a utility player and even then he is stretched.  He seems solid in the OF to me as a back up.  He has speed.  He can also play in the IF.  He is an ideal back up player in my book.  He is a AAAA player but not like the traditional AAAA player and that makes him a back up.  He is like 85-90% across the board with major league speed.  He can also regress quickly from his current talent level and that will always be worrisome.  He doesn't have much of a ceiling beyond this.  

Gordon had a nice run.  but so did refsnyder.  Lets see if Gordon can do that again next year.  He has definitely earned the chance to show he is a good back up player.  

I agree with everything said here. That's pretty much how I view Gordon as well.

6 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I agree with everything said here. That's pretty much how I view Gordon as well.

Such a weird feeling.  Someone agrees with me.

1 hour ago, goulik said:

I find it impossible to discuss the full list of drops without knowing the full list of "need to protect from the Rule V" You have the obvious drops and you have the fringe. Well, if you have to add x number of players, you need to drop enough to make room. This is the difference maker for the Garlicks, Astudillos, Gordon's of the world.

Right. Which is why I went from 'Oh, this is easy' to ... okay, really, really NOT. Heh. My hunch is a few will be released immediately at the end of the season because we have several players on the 60-day IL that room will need to be made for them. And then when rule 5 comes around, this becomes yet another discussion. I was trying to be 'efficient' by sorting it into parts, but maybe we should have put EVERYTHING in here at once?

That said ... haven't seen you around lately! Glad to have you back and hope you are well!

In general, 40 man roster split is 18 position players, 22 pitchers but not set in stone. 13 position players on active roster so not a lot of extra spots for others. FYI, Twins, even with all there injuries, only played 23 position players this year, Blankenhorn and Lin 1 game each, and Riddle 4 games. So only 20 that played significant time. 34 different pitchers used by Twins this year. The five extra spots usually include a third catcher, MIF, and OF that is able to play CF, and the 2 best prospects that are rule 5 eligible. I would go with Rortvedt, Palacios, Celestino, Lewis, and Miranda. Would prefer Miranda on opening day roster, but see Twins playing service time game. 13 on active roster-Garver, Jeffers, Sano, Polanco, FA SS, Donaldson, Arraez, Kirilloff, Kepler, Buxton, Larnach, Gordon, Refsynder.