Fire sale, if all these forecasts come true.

Fire sale, if all these forecasts come true.

Thus far I have the following being traded:

Pineda (expiring)

Happ (expiring)

Duffey (1 year of arb remaining)

Garver (2 years of arb remaining, I am not super confident in him being moved but lean more towards yes than no)

Colome (expiring)

Robles (expiring)

If the Twins do decide that they are not competitive come July, I think all expiring guy would be moved, besides maybe Pineda if they take this as a retooling year and want to extend him. 

I don’t think it will be as much of a fire sale as you do. Out of this list of players, only Happ is traded IMO for a modest return. It’s unlikely a contender views him as a playoff starter since the Yankees moved him to the pen in recent years. 
 

There’s a chance Big Mike is moved as well on his expiring contract if the season is lost by late July. In that case, I hope it’s a trade and sign back in FA this winter. 
 

Can’t see Garver being moved unless it’s an overpay. He’ll still be affordable and still provides offensive upside compared to most catchers around the league. 

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

I don’t think it will be as much of a fire sale as you do. Out of this list of players, only Happ is traded IMO for a modest return. It’s unlikely a contender views him as a playoff starter since the Yankees moved him to the pen in recent years. 
 

There’s a chance Big Mike is moved as well on his expiring contract if the season is lost by late July. In that case, I hope it’s a trade and sign back in FA this winter. 
 

Can’t see Garver being moved unless it’s an overpay. He’ll still be affordable and still provides offensive upside compared to most catchers around the league. 

I agree that this is the most likely scenario, but I'm writing this as if we're 8+ games back at the trade deadline and there isn't any hope of making a comeback in the last 2 months. If that's the case, I think there will be more trades. If the Twins are selling off pieces (Happ, Pineda, Robles), then Simmons will certainly be moved as well. 

I am also predicting that unless they sign extensions, both Buxton and Berrios will be moved.  They will be gone for little of less (depending on the new CBA) after 2022.

Of this list I would expect that Kepler will be gone and Sano will be a bench player, gone or released.

Outfield will be Arreaz, New to the system, Laurich

1b will be Kiriloff, 2B polonco, ss Simmons (if resigned), 3B Donaldson

C Jeffers. 

View should be on finding more pitching in these deals.

8 hours ago, beckmt said:

Of this list I would expect that Kepler will be gone and Sano will be a bench player, gone or released.

Outfield will be Arreaz, New to the system, Laurich

1b will be Kiriloff, 2B polonco, ss Simmons (if resigned), 3B Donaldson

C Jeffers. 

 

View should be on finding more pitching in these deals.

I'd be fairly shocked if either Berrios or Buxton are moved, unless the FO is fully committing to a full blown rebuild, which I seriously doubt with Larnach/AK/Lewis this close, or already in the major leagues, and Duran and Jordan not far behind. 

3 hours ago, Mill1634 said:

I'd be fairly shocked if either Berrios or Buxton are moved, unless the FO is fully committing to a full blown rebuild, which I seriously doubt with Larnach/AK/Lewis this close, or already in the major leagues, and Duran and Jordan not far behind. 

I think you have rose colored glasses.  White Sox are only getting better over the next 2 - 3 years and maybe for the next 10.  Unless you think Berrios or Buxton will sign an extension (not at above market value) they will be gone after 2022.  But you need to do this over the next two months as by July you will probably be out of it (especially if you lose the next 6) and have to make the tough decisions.  Unless you feel you can survive (if there is a QA, which I doubt will be part of the next CBA), you have to get value for Berrios  and Buxton this year.  

You also need the FO to change their view on players to players like Arreaz and power hitters in that mold and high energy pitching(must for bullpen).  If they will not change, they must be fired.  This is already a total system failure, why make it worse.

Just now, beckmt said:

I think you have rose colored glasses.  White Sox are only getting better over the next 2 - 3 years and maybe for the next 10.  Unless you think Berrios or Buxton will sign an extension (not at above market value) they will be gone after 2022.  But you need to do this over the next two months as by July you will probably be out of it (especially if you lose the next 6) and have to make the tough decisions.  Unless you feel you can survive (if there is a QA, which I doubt will be part of the next CBA), you have to get value for Berrios  and Buxton this year.  

You also need the FO to change their view on players to players like Arreaz and power hitters in that mold and high energy pitching(must for bullpen).  If they will not change, they must be fired.  This is already a total system failure, why make it worse.

I agree that the white sox will get better in the next 2-3 years, but that doesn’t mean that the twins should just fold and call it a day. There is enough individual talent on this team, and prospects either already up, or on the brink that I think that they can retool and make something of a mix of current players, prospects they’ve developed, and players they target in trades or free agency. With the new CBA coming up, it is very likely that we some form of expanded playoffs that we saw last year, in which I would give the twins a very good chance at making in 2022. I do agree that they front office needs to change their mold of players they target and go for more electric arms like alcala in the bullpen, and diversify the lineup with a mixture of power and OBP guys. The good news it that AK is a great average hitter, and Larnach isn’t a boom or bust hitter like sano or garver. Lewis should be a 5 tool player as well. Add in Arraez and Polanco, and you have a more well rounded lineup than the bomba squad. I do think that an extension on berrios should be given, assuming it’s around 100-110 over 4 years. I’d sign that and not blink. Buxton I hesitate to give huge money to because of the injuries, and think they should consider a trade for young MLB ready talent. 
 

it will be interesting to see what type of player the twins draft in a few months, as we’ve seen them target power college hitters. I’d like to see them take a bit more of a toolsy player, but it’s clear they have their type. 

1 hour ago, Mill1634 said:

I agree that the white sox will get better in the next 2-3 years, but that doesn’t mean that the twins should just fold and call it a day. There is enough individual talent on this team, and prospects either already up, or on the brink that I think that they can retool and make something of a mix of current players, prospects they’ve developed, and players they target in trades or free agency. With the new CBA coming up, it is very likely that we some form of expanded playoffs that we saw last year, in which I would give the twins a very good chance at making in 2022. I do agree that they front office needs to change their mold of players they target and go for more electric arms like alcala in the bullpen, and diversify the lineup with a mixture of power and OBP guys. The good news it that AK is a great average hitter, and Larnach isn’t a boom or bust hitter like sano or garver. Lewis should be a 5 tool player as well. Add in Arraez and Polanco, and you have a more well rounded lineup than the bomba squad. I do think that an extension on berrios should be given, assuming it’s around 100-110 over 4 years. I’d sign that and not blink. Buxton I hesitate to give huge money to because of the injuries, and think they should consider a trade for young MLB ready talent. 
 

it will be interesting to see what type of player the twins draft in a few months, as we’ve seen them target power college hitters. I’d like to see them take a bit more of a toolsy player, but it’s clear they have their type. 

Berrios may take more years than you want to give to sign.  And between him and Buxton, he might be the more replaceable with the young pitching talent the Twins have coming. Problem is Cleveland's pitching is not going away and Kansas City is coming, Twins are just a pack team unless some of their youngsters hit. 

I would move the bullpen pieces up quickly and see where we stand, we may not have time to fully assess where the youngsters are before July.