Yesterday the Minnesota Twins inked Matt Shoemaker to a one-year deal worth $2 million. He’ll be the favorite to fill out the starting rotation and likely puts a bow on a strong offseason. Without flash, it’s still exactly what was needed.

When looking at free agency it’s often the big signings or high-ticket players that draw all the fanfare. For a team like the Twins though, expectations have to be viewed through the lens of what is necessary. This isn’t to suggest teams shouldn’t spend money, or give them a pass for not doing so, but expecting good clubs to get exponentially better is a fool’s errand. Minnesota didn’t rock the boat, but they did more than necessary to three-peat as AL Central division winners.

Coming off two seasons with an average winning percentage of .600, the goal for 2021 should be to again make the Postseason and then make noise once you get there. Sure, the futility in the playoffs has been mind-boggling, but it’s ultimately not predictive of any future results. You’re dealing with incredibly small sample sizes, and while added together they look poor, viewed separately as they should be, they don’t indicate much.

The Twins won the division in 2020, just like they did in 2019. It wasn’t on them to go out and make up ground this offseason. They needed to replace a couple of bullpen arms and look to bolster their starting rotation. Short of signing Trevor Bauer, there was never a path for them to have an offseason quite like the Chicago White Sox or San Diego Padres. The former was a third-place team chasing down the hometown nine, and the latter is a club rich in prospects looking to make up ground between themselves and the World Series winners.

Obviously, there is any amount of talent that can be acquired to raise the water level for a 26-man roster. The Padres and White Sox are better positioned for 2021 than they were because of the talent they brought in. Both clubs had a need to make up a gap though. The Dodgers are spending a boatload of cash to run it back, with the one addition of the aforementioned Bauer. That’s a big splash, but one that only impacts a single roster spot.

With pitchers and catchers set to embark upon Fort Myers in the coming days, Minnesota has to be considered the divisional favorite. Then it’s on players like Josh Donaldson, Miguel Sano, and Mitch Garver to step up. Should the team fare as expected through the first half, betting on reinforcements being acquired at the deadline is also a good assumption. What it all boils down to is that World Series titles, and even Postseason victories, aren’t achieved in the offseason. The size of a winter splash doesn’t ultimately predict much in the way of October success.

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine made their big splash last offseason in the form of Josh Donaldson. They targeted a defensive upgrade that was otherwise unnecessary in Andrelton Simmons this time around, and his impact will be felt more on the diamond than it’s gotten credit on paper. Minnesota already was good and should’ve been expected to be so again in 2021. They then raised the water level ever so slightly, and here we are ready to go with a club that again will turn heads.

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